the markets for flexible glass—2011

7/31/2019 The Markets for Flexible Glass2011

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NanoMarkets, LC| PO Box 3840| Glen Allen, VA 23058| TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259

www.nanomarkets.net

The Markets forFlexible Glass2011

Nano-427

Published October 2011

NanoMarkets, LC

NanoMarkets, LCPO Box 3840

Glen Allen, VA 23058

Tel: 804-270-1718

Web: www.nanomarkets.net


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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based

on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot beguaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact

or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative

purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales

agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express

written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary...................................................................................................... 1

E.1 Summary of the Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass.......................... 1

E.1.1 Intrinsically Flexible Displays ............................................................................................................... 2

E.1.2 Flexible Photovoltaics............................................................................................................................ 4

E.1.3 OLED Lighting ........................................................................................................................................ 4

E.1.4 Other Specific Product Applications for Flexible Glass: Sensors, Biochips and Touch Screens 5

E.1.5 Lightweight Displays and PV................................................................................................................ 7

E.1.6 Flexible Encapsulation........................................................................................................................... 7

E.1.7 R2R.......................................................................................................................................................... 8

E.2 Challenges to the Future of Flexible Glass .................................................... 9

E.2.1 Niches Where Flexible Glass Can Compete With Plastic ................................................................ 10

E.2.2 Flexible Glass and its Non-Plastic Competitors................................................................................ 11

E.3 Summary of the Eight-Year Projections of Flexible Glass Markets ....... 13

Chapter One: Introduction........................................................................................ 16

1.1 Background to this Report ........................................................................... 16

1.1.1 The Value of Flexible Glass ................................................................................................................ 16

1.1.2 Glass, Weight and R2R in the Display Industry .............................................................................. 17

1.1.3 A Parallel Market in the PV Sector .................................................................................................... 18

1.1.4 Flexible Glass and Intrinsically Flexible Products ............................................................................ 18

1.1.5 Flexible Glass versus the Rest ........................................................................................................... 20

1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report............................................................... 22

1.3Methodology of this Report............................................................................. 23

1.4Plan of this Report............................................................................................. 24

Chapter Two: Flexible Glass: Suppliers, Technology and Products................ 26

2.1 Current Flexible Glass Products, Technologies and Supply structure .. 26

2.1.1 AGC/Asahi Glass .................................................................................................................................. 26

2.1.2 Corning.................................................................................................................................................. 28

2.1.3 LiSEC ..................................................................................................................................................... 31

2.1.4 Nippon Electric Glass........................................................................................................................... 32


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2.1.5 Schott .................................................................................................................................................... 33

2.1.6 Tokyo Electron (TEL) .......................................................................................................................... 34

2.1.7 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and CalTech .................................................................... 34

2.1.8 Likely Market Entrants: From China with Glass? ........................................................................... 34

2.4 Flexible Glass Versus Other Flexible Substrates ...................................... 35

2.4.1 "Pseudo-Flexible" Glass (Ceramic/Polymer Mixes) ......................................................................... 35

2.4.2 Plastics .................................................................................................................................................. 36

2.4.3 Metal Foil and Sheets .......................................................................................................................... 37

2.4.4 Flexible Silicon...................................................................................................................................... 38

2.5 Flexible Glass and Encapsulation .................................................................. 38

2.6 Manufacturing Flexible Glass: Trends and Challenges............................ 39

2.6.1 Potential Requirement for Special Coatings .................................................................................... 39

2.7 Key Points from this Chapter.......................................................................... 40

Chapter Three:Markets for Flexible Glass: Current and Future...................... 42

3.1 Flexible Glass: Beyond R2R Processes........................................................ 42

3.2 E-Readers and E-Paper: Possible Roles for Flexible Glass ...................... 42

3.2.1 Flexibility in E-Paper Displays ............................................................................................................ 44

3.3 Cell Phones and Slate/Laptop Computers ................................................... 453.3.1 An AMLCD Display on Flexible Glass ................................................................................................. 45

3.3.2 Flexible Glass and Rollable/Foldable Displays ................................................................................. 45

3.4 Flexible Glass in Touch Panels ....................................................................... 47

3.5 Flexible Glass and the Future of Solar Panels ............................................ 47

3.5.1 Glass in the PV Industry ..................................................................................................................... 47

3.5.2 Flexible Substrates in PV .................................................................................................................... 48

3.5.3 A Note on CIGS.................................................................................................................................... 49

3.5.4 The Lure of the OPV/DSC Market: Is It Worth a Look for Flexible Glass Makers?.................. 49

3.5.5 Is Flexible BIPV a Market Opportunity for Flexible Glass?............................................................. 50

3.5.6 Flexible Glass as a PV Encapsulant.................................................................................................. 51

3.5.7 The Down Side of Flexible Glass in the PV Space ......................................................................... 52

3.6 Flexible Glass for OLED Lighting.................................................................... 52

3.7 Flexible Glass in Large-Area and Low-Weight Sensors........................... 53

3.8 Other Markets and Applications Concepts for Flexible Glass ................. 55


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3.8.1 Flexible Batteries ................................................................................................................................. 56

3.8.2 Chip Packages ...................................................................................................................................... 56

3.8.3 Wearable Displays ............................................................................................................................... 57

3.9 Key Points from this Chapter.......................................................................... 57

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Flexible Glass Markets......................... 60

4.1 Forecasting and Research Methodology ...................................................... 60

4.1.1 Scope of Forecast ................................................................................................................................ 60

4.1.2 Data Sources for the Forecast and for the Report ......................................................................... 61

4.1.3 Demand, Economic and Policy Issues .............................................................................................. 61

4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios and Other Factors Taken Into Consideration ............................................ 62

4.2 Eight-Year Forecast by Application/End-User Market ............................. 63

4.2.1 Display Markets.................................................................................................................................... 63

4.2.2 Photovoltaics Market ........................................................................................................................... 66

4.2.3 OLED Lighting ...................................................................................................................................... 69

4.2.4 Large-Area Sensors ............................................................................................................................. 71

4.3 Eight-Year Forecast by Type of Application (Displays, PV, etc.)............ 71

4.4 Eight-Year Forecast by Type of Functionality (Intrinsically Flexible,

R2R, etc.) ................................................................................................................... 73

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report ............................................ 76

About the Author...................................................................................................... 77

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Summary of Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass ......................................................... 2

Exhibit E-2: Flexible Glass: Comparison With Other Materials ........................................................... 12

Exhibit E-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million) ............................... 13Exhibit 2-1: Corning's Ultra-Slim Flexible Glass ................................................................................. 29

Exhibit 3-1: Opportunities for Flexible Large-Area Sensors ................................................................ 54

Exhibit 4-1: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Display Industry .................................... 64

Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Solar Panel Industry .............................. 67

Exhibit 4-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the OLED Lighting Industry .......................... 69


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Exhibit 4-4: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Sensor Industry ..................................... 71

Exhibit 4-5: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Application ($ Million) ................................. 73

Exhibit 4-6: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million) ............................... 74


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Executive Summary

E.1 Summary of the Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass

Despite the somewhat dramatic name, so-called "flexible glass" is in fact no more than ultra-

thin glass that canas the result of its thinnessbe rolled up to a fairly tight diameter.

Because of this property this kind of glass is a potential substitute for plastics, metals and

other materials that are currently being proposed to serve as for flexible substrates as well as

encapsulation materials and cover glass for electronics and solar panels.

Flexible glass is currently being developed by several major glass companies, of which the one

with the greatest "mindshare" in this space is undoubtedly Corning. Other firms that are

developing products in this space are Schott, Nippon Electric Glass, Tokyo Electron and

ASG/Asahi Glass.

Flexible glass has been in development for several years and appears to be nearing

commercialization. Our analysis suggests that it has the following major (somewhat

overlapping) application areas:

Intrinsically flexible products, especially displays

Lightweight displays and PV (and probably other lightweight products)

Solar panels

OLED lighting

Sensors and diagnostic devices of various kinds

R2R processing

Flexible encapsulation.

The characteristics of most of these opportunities are profiled and assessed in Exhibit E-1,

below. This Exhibit shows the timeframes and what the risks are likely to be. (The odd man

out from the list given above is the sensors/diagnostic sector which is rather diverse and

discussed more fully later in this section.) At the moment most of the commercial activity in

the flexible glass space seems to be heavily focused on R2R processing and display

applications, in the sense that this is where the glass firms developing flexible glass say they

are placing their efforts in terms of applications developments.


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Exhibit E-1: Summary of Market Opportunities for Flexible GlassIntrinsically

Flexible

Displays

Flexible PV OLED lighting LightweightDisplays and

SimilarProducts

FlexibleEncapsulation

R2R Processing

Growth ofaddressablemarkets

Flexible displaysexist in proto-type only

Commercialproducts existsand growthexpected drivenby the need forBIPV

In luxurylighting only atthe presenttime

Appears to begood growthprospects formobiledevices andautomotiveelectronics

Some of theadvanced flexibleelectronics productspopular a few yearsago have not donewell. Could flexibleglass be a betteranswer

For products thatcurrently usedglass substrates(like displays),flexible glassbrings fabricationinto the R2R era

Main driversfor flexibleglass

Displaysfrequently needhigh-performancesubstrates and

encapsulation

Strength ofencapsulation isattractive. Alsolow weight forroofing products

Conformablelighting and(possibly)improvedencapsulation

Flexible glassis thin andlightweight

Flexible electronicsand PV is in urgentneed of betterencapsulation andthere are not many

good alternatives

Supposedly R2Rprocessing islower cost, butrequires flexiblesubstrates.

Flexible glasswould thereforebe an enabler forshifting to R2Rwhere a rigid glasssubstrate wasformerly used

Key compete-tors toflexible glass

Primarilyplastics.Possibly metalfoils for OLEDdisplays

Metal sheets, butsome plasticsmay suffice

Most OLEDlighting today isrigid and usesglass and(maybe) foilsubstrates

Plastics, metalfoil. Paper toa very limitedextent

Specializedadvanced flexibleencapsulationschemes

Plastics, metal,paper, textiles.But these do notoffer all thedesirableproperties of glass

Main

challenges toflexible glass

Availability/new

technology. Is itflexible enough

Cost. Solar is a

very costsensitive area. Sofar flexible glassfirms do notseem to bechasing after thePV sector

Cost. Also,

flexible/conformablelighting is notseen as animmediateprospect

There are

lighter flexiblesubstrates

Flexible glass as an

encapsulationtechnology is still anidea in progress

Little or no data

from the field yet

Best niche forflexible glass

Rollable displaysfor cell phonesand e-bookreaders

BIPV Conformablelighting

Mobiledisplays

OLED displays andlighting. PossiblyCIGS PV

Displays if theimprovedeconomics can beachieved

Timeframeforopportunity

Samsung willstart shippingflexible displaysin 2012

Immediate Beyond 2015.This is whenconformableOLED lighting is

expected toappear

Immediate The need isimmediate, but thisisn't really a focus ofthe suppliers of

flexible glass at thepresent time

Immediate

NanoMarkets 2011

E.1.1 Intrinsically Flexible Displays

Intrinsically flexible displays have been much more talked about and shown at trade shows

than actually implemented as a commercial product. Regular visitors to shows/conferences


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such as the SID show in the U.S. are by now quite used to seeing flexible displays at the booths

of several display companies for the best part of a decade. They should be forgiven any

cynicism about the market prospects for flexible displays that they may have, because theseflexible displays seem never to have gotten beyond prototypes and some long-promised

flexible displays have simply failed to reach the market.

Nonetheless, there are some genuine arguments for including the intrinsically flexible display

sector as a potential sales opportunity for flexible glass, although admittedly these arguments

are not overwhelming and should be considered together:

On the demand side, the idea of using a rollable display as a plug-in for a cell phone

seems attractive as a means to provide a larger display than that embedded in the

phone. It also seems to be reasonably well established that there are military

applications for flexible displays. Much longer term, there seems to be some potential

for rollable TVs, but no one is close to providing such a product yet.

On the supply side of the equation, there seem to be more and more major display

makers with flexible display prototypes and Samsung actually says that it is going to go

into production with these products in 2012. The growing interest by large display

makers in flexible displays means that there are now firms with huge financial and

marketing resources backing flexible displays and this is certainly different from a few

years back when flexible displays were primarily the province of start-ups.

The previous two paragraphs seem to establish the somewhat risky nature of the flexible

display market as an addressable market for flexible glass:

To this must be added that our guess would be that most flexible display makers are

thinking about plastics and metal foils for substrates/encapsulation rather than flexible

glass. After all, these materials are readily and inexpensively available.

On the other hand, flexible glass, if available in sufficient volume, should be a

reasonably easy sell into the flexible display market, since the transparency and strong

encapsulation that flexible glass can provide are likely to be highly valued for mobile

and TV displays and therefore display makers may be willing to pay a premium for

these characteristics.

For intrinsically flexible displays, the cover glass, substrate and encapsulation (to the extent

that they are three separate materials) must all be flexible and plastic could provide this


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capability in all three cases. However, flexible glass is likely to offer more transparency and

higher scratch resistance. Metal foil would make an attractive substrate, but is not

transparent so is not an option for a cover glass.

E.1.2 Flexible Photovoltaics

Although few if any makers of flexible glass appear to be targeting the PV space at the present

time, there do appear to be a number of opportunities for flexible glass in this sector.

The role of flexible glass as an enabling technology for R2R processed PV and as an advanced

encapsulation technology for PV is discussed below. However, we note that there also seems

to be a market just beginning to emerge for flexible PV products. These have a number of

potential advantages both in terms of functionality and aesthetics:

The functionality advantages include conformability to the building fabric and better

ability to withstand high winds and other difficult weather conditions.

The aesthetic considerations include the ability to manufacture attractive value-added

products using curved or flexible glass.

Somewhat restricting the opportunities for flexible glass are (at least) three other factors:

Despite the familiarity of the PV industry with glass, where flexible substrates are

required, the industry seems to have no problem with using metal or even plastic.

CIGS PV, which remains one of the up-and-coming sectors of the industry, does not

need a transparent substrate, so one of the advantages of using glass is effectively

eliminated in such cases.

Flexible glass may be a high-cost option compared to sheet metal or plastic and this is

not attractive in the highly cost sensitive PV industry. (We note that Chinese solar

panel makers have recently made big inroads in the solar panel industry, based largely

on cost.)

E.1.3 OLED Lighting

Using white OLED panels for lighting is an idea that is getting considerable backing both from

large electronics and lighting firms (GE, LG, Panasonic, Osram, Philips, Samsung, etc.) and from

government programs designed to provide encouragement to solid-state/efficient lighting.

However, at the present time, the OLED lighting that can actually be purchased in a store falls


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completely into the luxury lighting field and invariably uses a rigid substrate and

encapsulation; primarily glass.

Many people think, however, that OLED lighting will come down significantly in price and that

as this happens OLED luminaires will become a serious alternative to conventional lighting,

especially in office applications. In addition, the thin, panel-like nature of OLED lighting

suggests that it can be made flexible or at least conformable, implying that some kind of

flexible substrate and encapsulation will be required:

The consensus is that neither widespread use of OLED lighting nor the introduction of

conformable/flexible OLED lighting is going to make it out of the lab until (at least)

2015.

Indeed, at this early stage of development for OLED lighting, it is quite possible that

the whole idea will be a flash in the pan.

In addition, no one has seriously proposed using flexible glass for flexible/conformable

OLED lighting, as far as we are aware. Indeed, flexible glass may prove to be quite

expensive for this application.

On the other hand, OLED lighting might be an area that makers of flexible glass should

consider, because there it could potentially use a lot of substrate/encapsulation material and

by the time flexible/conformable OLED lighting is available, flexible glass should be matureenough that it will be available in sufficient quantities to meet volume requirements. Finally,

current concepts of flexible lightingas we have already suggesteddo not require high

degrees of flexibility, so this again may make the market highly suitable for flexible glass that

may ultimately have some problems with tight rolling.

E.1.4 Other Specific Product Applications for Flexible Glass: Sensors, Biochipsand Touch Screens

Generally speaking, at the present time, the flexible glass firms have been focusing on the

display sector, whether we are talking the intrinsically flexible displays or simply R2R

processing. Nonetheless, the three specific products mentioned above as applications for

flexible glassdisplays, PV and OLED lightingstand out, not because they are already large

consumers of flexible glass; flexible glass is only just becoming productized. Rather, they are

all areas that consume a lot of glass already and where flexibility would (as explained above)

seem to be an advantage.


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There are other applications for flexible glass mentioned in the literature that currently seem

to be a long way from the strategic thinking of the flexible glass makers but which may

provide some new business revenues for these firms in the future.

Sensors: Several kinds of sensor have been suggested as possible long-term opportunities for

flexible glass:

Glass substrates are already used in the sensor industry and there may be applications

where flexible glass substrates may be a useful substitute on the grounds that these

are lower in weight. These applications include sensors used in the automobile/other

forms of transportation and in mobile electronics.

It has also been suggested that a transparent flexible substrate such as that providedby flexible glass might also be useful where optical sensors are involved, although the

specifics are unclear at the present time.

Yet another area where flexible glass substrates might find a role in the future is in the

area of large-area sensors. These may be used in many areas and are seen as part of

the ongoing evolution towards the so-called "Internet of Things." But while flexible

sensors are clearly part of this story, it is not as obvious that flexible glass is required.

Indeed, because most of the deployment of sensors in the Internet of Things will

supposedly be of very low-cost sensors, flexible glass is not the most obvious choice

for a substrate.

Biochips: DNA assays and biochips are currently used in a variety of R&D and (to a limited

extent) medical diagnostic applications. These devices are typically created on a glass

substrate sometimes using printing.

In the long run there seem to be larger markets that this device could address, especially in

medicine, but there will need to be cost reductions for this enhanced penetration to occur.

Part of this may come from the use of flexible glass instead of regular standard glass. This

would not only reduce materials costs directly, but also permit R2R processing (see below).

Touch-screen applications: There may be applications for flexible glass in the touch-screen

industry, especially in the analog resistive sector where the glass actually bends in response to

the touch. It has been suggested that using flexible glass would make such touch displays

more responsive to touch from a wide variety of objects. In addition, while plastic sheets

could achieve the same or better flexibility for this application, flexible glass would be more

scratch resistant.


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E.1.5 Lightweight Displays and PV

While the flexibility of flexible glass is the characteristic that we have emphasized in the

opportunities profiled above, again we note that flexible glass is, in effect, just ultra-thin glass

and is therefore lower weight than regular glass. Because flexible glass is also lighter than

other forms of glass, it is possible that glass of this kind can be an attractive substitute for

regular glass where weight matters. The area where flexible glass may resonate in the market

based on weight-related characteristics would be in mobile displays and solar panels. This

suggests two more opportunities for flexible glass:

Weightor rather lack of itis obviously a major selling point for mobile displays and

glass used in displays for laptops and cell phones has continued to get thinner over the

years. Flexible glass for substrates or cover glass could help continue this trend and, aswe have already noted, this material may be more scratch proof than the plastic

alternative.

In the thin-film PV (TFPV) sector, conventional glass has been widely used as a

substrate and so thin-film glass has a certain familiarity about it. NanoMarkets

believes that this is most easily exploited by offering flexible glass as a way of lowering

the weight of solar panels. This is a significant factor in the sense that the lower the

weight the less the cost (including installation cost). This is a reasonable assumption in

the roof-based PV industry.

E.1.6 Flexible Encapsulation

Flexible encapsulation technology has been in development since the earliest days of printed

electronics when it was recognized that this type of encapsulation would be needed for R2R

processing, especially where organic materials were being used, since these were in special

need of protection. However, although advanced flexible encapsulation systems have

appeared on the market, they do not seem to have caught on, primarily, it seems, because

they are very expensive.

Displays: This is one reason (although by no means the only one) why intrinsically flexible

displays have never emerged as a mainstream product. Thus, despite much talk about flexible

e-paper (i.e., electrophoretic displays), the reality is that in virtually all cases, the frontplanes

for these displays are created on flexible substrates and then rigidly encapsulated.


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Flexible glass provides an alternative to advanced encapsulation systems, although this option

has yet to see much development or commercialization. OLED displays in particular are in need

of strong encapsulation.

PV: Encapsulation is a critical issue in PV. Several types of PV are particularly in need of

encapsulation because their absorber layers are highly vulnerable to air and moisture. These

include CIGS and especially DSC and OPV. The importance of encapsulation in this context is

enhanced by the fact that most PV will be deployed outdoors.

Encapsulation in rigid glass is one possibility, but this is hardly helpful for flexible BIPV

products of the kind discussed above. There are some interesting advanced flexible

encapsulation systems that have been developed over the past few years, but these do not

seem to have done especially well in the marketplace. It is possible, therefore, that there is animportant long-term opportunity for flexible PV encapsulation using flexible glass.

While the lack of an existing high-volume market of flexible PV to consume new encapsulation

materials is of some concern to flexible encapsulation developers, there is not as much risk as

one might think. Big companies like Dow Chemical are getting behind flexible PV.

E.1.7 R2R

Perhaps the most immediate opportunity for flexible glass lies in providing a better substrate

for R2R processing:

This is the "simplest" opportunity for flexible glass, since all that it involves is using

flexible glass as an alternative to some other flexible substrate in a process that is

specifically designed for flexible substrates. All the complexities of creating a final

product that is itself flexible are unnecessary in this application, although we note that

R2R plants cannot simply change substrates without some effort. This seems to be the

application that firms making (or planning to make) flexible glass are most interested

in, which is perhaps not surprising. The selling proposition for flexible glass in this

application includes the fact that it doesn't stretch, its good barrier properties and

(especially) the fact that glass is highly thermally stable. Thermal stability may beespecially important in certain specialized R2R processes.

Displays are not often manufactured using R2R processes; conventional LCD displays

use mature batch processes with rigid glass substrates. Probably the most important

R2R process (in terms of volume) in the display industry today is the creation of an E

Ink frontplane for e-book readers, however, this does not use a glass substrate. In the


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future, large OLED displays and OLED lighting panels may well use R2R/printing in

fabrication and flexible glass substrates would be quite suitable for such resilient

products.

Also flexible glass could theoretically play an important role in the R2R manufacture of

PV and, in fact, R2R has been an important consideration in the manufacturing of solar

panels for at least a decade. It has met with mixed success, however. R2R processes

are certainly used in the PV industry today, but some of the more enthusiastic plans

for using R2R and printing in PV from a few years ago, don't seem to have gone

anywhere near as far as some R2R advocates expected or stated. R2R's future in the

PV space has also been put under strain by the fact that First Solar has proved that it is

possible to make very low-cost solar panels using fairly conventional manufacturing

approaches, based on economies of scale. This is something that the R2R advocates

hadn't really counted. On the other hand, R2R seems virtually certain to have some

kind of role in the future of R2R, so flexible glass may well be able to fill a niche in the

PV industry at some point.

E.2 Challenges to the Future of Flexible Glass

The main challenges for flexible glass fall into two categories:

The first of these categories includes those involved in the manufacture of the glass

itself and these are discussed in more detail in the main body of this report. Suffice it

to say here that the manufacture of flexible glass has not proved easy and, in a sense,

it is a task that is never quite completed, since the goal is to make glass ever thinner.

The other category has to do with bringing the product to market in competition with

some fairly well understood products. Flexible glass competes with other flexible

substrates of which by far the most important is plastic substrates. As we have already

noted, other materials that flexible glass competes with are metal foils and sheets,

paper and textiles. These materials are all limited in their applications in important

ways (metals are not transparent, for example). Only plastics represent a challenge tothe use of flexible glass across a wide range of what are likely to be high- volume

applications.


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E.2.1 Niches Where Flexible Glass Can Compete With Plastic

Flexible glass is a strong competitor with plastic on almost every ground, except price, but, of

course, this aspect is crucial to the long-term success of flexible glass and in defining the

addressable markets in which flexible glass can compete. Some important aspects of flexible

glass where this new material can carve out important opportunities are likely to include:

Transparency. All things considered, flexible glass is likely to be more transparent than

plastic substrates, cover sheets, etc. This would seem to give it a strong advantage in

high-end flexible displays and in display products more generally, including the touch

sensors for touch-screen displays. It seems reasonable to assume that in high-end

display products, the value of high-transparency would be sufficient to build it into the

final price of the display

Thermal stability. Glass is the most thermally stable of any of the materials that are

considered in this report. This would matter primarily where high-temperature

processing is used. Most R2R processing (the kind of fabrication in which flexible glass

would be most widely used) does not involve high temperatures, but it is often useful to

be able to thermally cure inks and coatings and flexible glass would be more suitable in

such circumstances. Thermal curing can often result in higher performance of an

R2R/printed electronics product, so this again points towards flexible glass being used

in higher performance products of various kinds, although here we are talking about

markets that extend beyond displays.

Lifetimes. Glass is a long-lived product, while for plastics this is often not the case.

Nonetheless, plastics would seem good enough for all but the longest-lived products.

These exceptions would certainly include BIPV roofing and perhaps OLED television

panels.

Flexibility and dimensional stability. To date, the flexible glass that NanoMarkets has

seen would seem to be somewhat less flexible than plastic and perhaps this could limit

its use in rollable displays. However, this limitation of flexible glass would be offset by

the fact that glass has a high level of dimensional stability, which means that a display

using flexible glass is much less likely to stretch. Stretching of a display could

potentially distort the image. At this early stage of the evolution of flexible displays, it

is not easy to say to what degree this is likely to be a practical problem.


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E.2.2 Flexible Glass and Its Non-Plastic Competitors

As mentioned above, most of the other materials with which flexible glass is likely to compete

are less of a challenge, because they do not compete in a broad way:

Metal foils are sometimes used as a substrate for OLED displays, but this is not

common enough to really be designated as a market challenge to flexible glass.

Perhaps more of a serious challenge is the use of metal sheet roofing as a substrate for

BIPV. This has been used with both OPV and DSC and it would seem that metal would

be a serious rival to even flexible glass in this market.

Paper and textiles. Paper and textiles have been developed by a small range of

researchers and commercial companies as substrates for specialized types of printed

and organic electronics applications. For example, paper substrates are (or at least

could be) used in disposable electronics and textile substrates are inherent in the

"smart textile" concept. It does not seem that there would be all that much of a use

for flexible glass in such applications. Indeed, disposable electronics appears to be

exactly the kind of application in which flexible glass would not be used.

Another aspect of the competition between flexible glass and other materials is that, as a

practical matter, flexible glass finds itself in competition with products that are fairly generic

in nature, while flexible glass at the current stage of its evolution is a fairly proprietary product

or

at the very least

its pricing is likely to reflect the large costs involved with the extensiveR&D that produced it. This again suggests that the potential for flexible glass lies mostly in

markets where it can command a premium. In Exhibit E-2 we show how glass stacks up

against alternatives.


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Exhibit E-2 Flexible Glass: Comparison With Other MaterialsPlastic Sheet Metal Metal Foil Paper Textiles Glass

Flexibility Flexible glass would

not be as flexible asplastic at the presenttime, but good enoughfor most likelyapplications

Similar flexibility

to flexible glass

Foil may be

more flexiblethan flexibleglass but tendsto crease

Flexible glass

would not beas flexible aspaper, butpaper tends tocrease

Flexible glass is not

as flexible astextiles, but otheraspects of textileslimit its use inelectronics or PV

Rigid glass is

obviously notflexible

Weight Depends on the plastic Variesconsiderably

Varies, butflexible glasscould be heavier

Flexible glass would generally beheavier

Flexible glasswould generallybe much lighterthan rigid glass

Thermal stability Plastics are lessresistant to heat thanany other flexiblesubstrate, althoughpolyimides are betterthan other polymers inthis regard

Metals have very good thermalstability, but not as good as glass

Paper has verylimited thermalstability

Unless speciallytreated, textileshave limitedthermal stability.But suchtreatments areeasy to achieve

Glass has highestthermal stabilityof all thematerialsconsidered here.This includesflexible glass

Transparency Plastics are oftentransparent ortranslucent, butseldom as transparentas glass of any kind

Metals are not transparent in anygenuine sense

Paper can betransparent,but this is notusually the case

Textiles can betransparent, butthis is not usuallythe case

Glass

rigid ortransparentisgenerally highlytransparent

Dimensionalstability

Dimensional stabilityof plastic cansometimes be quitepoor

The dimensional stability of mostmetals is high

Thedimensionalstability ofpaper is good

Dimensionalstability of textilescan sometimes bequite poor

Glass (rigid ortransparent) ishighlydimensionallystable

Maturity oftechnology/material

Plastics are fairlyimmature as asubstrate forelectronics or PV

Metals should be considered areasonably mature substrate; OLEDswere created on metal foils someyears back and there seems to be noserious objections to using metals asa PV substrate

A few groupsare researchingpaper as anelectronicssubstrate

The "smart fabricsindustry" has beenaround for quite awhile, but hasnever really takenoff

Electronics(displays) and PVhave beencreated on glass(but not flexibleglass) for manyyears

Price Plastics are likely to bea low-cost option andmuch less expensivethan flexible glass forsome time to come

The relative priceof flexible glassand sheet steel ishard to assessdefinitively

Metal foilswould be lessexpensive thanflexible glass

Paper substratecost wouldobviously bevery low, butfunctionalitywould also bevery limited

Competitionbetween textilesand flexible glassprobably wouldn'tbe on price andprice comparisonsare hard to make

Flexible glasswould be lessexpensive

Where flexibleglass cancompete

For products that needgood transparency,scratch resistance andlong-term durability

Directcompetition forhigh-end PV andother productsseeking a strong,fairly flexible andhigh

encapsulatingsubstrate

Very limited useof metal foilcurrently, sodifficult to say

Not muchoverlap insectors served.Perhaps somecompetition insmart pack-aging, where

flexible glasscould win ondurability

Not much overlapin sectors served.Perhaps somecompetition innon-clothing smarttextiles (tents,curtains) where

flexible glass couldwin on durability

Flexible glasscompetes withrigid glassprimarily onweight, but isalso an enablingtechnology that

lets products bemade intrinsicallyflexible andtransferred toR2R processing

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E.3 Summary of the Eight-Year Projections of Flexible Glass Markets

In the main body of this report, we have constructed forecasts that are summarized below in

Exhibit E-3.

Exhibit E-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Intrinsically flexible products

(substrate)Intrinsically flexible products (

encapsulation)

Lightweight panels

Rigidly encapsulated R2R

Other

Total

NanoMarkets 2011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$Millions

NanoMarkets, LC

Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality

Other

Rigidly encapsulated R2R

Lightweight panels


(encapsulation)


(substrate)


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For the purposes of the forecasts in this report, we have divided the market up into several

segments and these can be explained to some extent in terms of the expected roadmap for

flexible glass:

The initial applications for flexible glass are likely to be found in its use as (1) a low-

weight substitute for rigid glass used in various parts of the electronics and PV industry

or (2) as a substrate for rigidly encapsulated products produced in R2R fabrication.These applications are the most immediately accessible since they primarily involve

changes at the fabrication level, rather than creating intrinsically flexible products that

entail novel marketing and business development issues

The other major sector that we have provided forecasts for in this report is the

intrinsically flexible products that a lot of observers believe are starting to emerge in

the marketplace. For the purposes of this report, we have included specific breakouts

for intrinsically flexible displays, flexible PV and flexible/conformable OLED lighting

We have included an "other" category at the end of Exhibit E-3, reflecting the fact that,

although there are no other areas other than the ones specified to which

manufacturers of flexible glass are anticipating selling their flexible glass in anything

like the near future, there are clearly other areas where it could be sold. Some of

these areas are mentioned in passing in the literature and we discuss them more fully

in the main body of this report.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$Millions

NanoMarkets, LC

Total Flexible Glass Market


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A final point on the forecasts: although the main drivers considered in this report have to do

specifically with the penetration of flexible glass in a number of market segments, it is also

important to remember that much of the growth that we anticipate in this report is not just afunction of the virtues and enhanced functionality of flexible glass, but also because of the

high growth expected for the various underlying addressable markets to which it is targeted.

To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets [email protected]

via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us atwww.nanomarkets.net.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/http://www.nanomarkets.net/mailto:[email protected]

the markets for flexible glass—2011

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