The Long Shadow ofSeptember 11:

Terrorism & Its Impacts on Insurance and Reinsurance Markets

July 25, 2002

If you would like a copy of this presentation, please leave me your business card with e-mail address or go to:

http://www.iii.org/media/hottopics/insurance/sept11/

Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., Senior Vice President & Chief EconomistInsurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038

Tel: (212) 346-5520 ♦ Fax: (212) 732-1916 ♦ bobh@iii.org ♦ www.iii.org

Presentation Outline• Timeline of Terror & Immediate Industry Response • What will it cost & who’s going to pay?• Terror exclusions• Cyber Terrorism• Next Attack?• Implication for the Insurance Industry

FinancialCapacityPricing

• Modelling Terror• Federal Backstop: What’s Happening in Washington?

Timeline of Terror:

How We Got Here

Timeline of Terror• 8:46AM: American Airlines Flight 11

Strikes North WTC Tower

• 9:03AM: United Airlines Flight

175 Hits South Tower

Timeline of Terror• 9:43AM: American Airlines

Flight 77 Strikes Pentagon

• 10:05AM: South Tower of

WTC Collapses

Timeline of Terror• 10:10AM: United Airlines

Flight 93 Crashed in PA

• 10:28AM: North Tower of

WTC Collapses

Damage at WTC Site

Brown = Destroyed

Red = Severe Damage

Pink = Moderate Damage

26 million sq. ft. of office space damaged or destroyed

I.I.I.: Too Close for Comfort

21

I.I.I. Office

WTC Towers

Distance from WTC Towers to Insurance Information Institute Offices = 500 meters

Timeline of Terror

• Anthrax attacks begin in early October

Since Then…

Here’s where he is (was).

He did it.

Military Option Selected Bombs Away!

Immediate Market Response:Shock but No Panic

Reassured “world” that insurers can and will pay claimsNo “act of war” or terrorism exclusions in place

Aviation insurers virtually eliminate 3rd party war cover

CAT reinsurers impose terrorism exclusions

Primary commercial insurers adopt terror exclusions in most states on case

Push in Washington to establish a terror pool (like Pool Re in U.K.)

Limited stand-alone terror coverage market evolves

Source: Insurance Information Institute.

What’s this Going to Cost &Who’s Going to Pay for It?

Sept. 11 Insured Loss Estimates

• Biggest insured CAT is US and world history ($40B)Hurricane Andrew: $15.5B (1992$); $20B (2000$)

• 100+ insurers worldwide have made announcements accounting for about $25B in insured losses

• Industry loss estimates ranged from low of $30 billion to $70 billion (I.I.I. Estimate $40.2B)

First WC disaster ($2.0B); 2,250 physically injuredFirst life disaster ($2.7B); 3,132 killedAnthrax Issue? WC exposure if out of course of employment

• Estimated NYC economic losses are $83 billion• Insurance will pay biggest share by far

Fed. Govt. promised $21.5B, excluding Victims Comp. Fund• Where would NY be today if terror exclusions were

adopted after 1993 WTC bombing? Source: Insurance Information Institute

Sept. 11 Industry Loss Estimates($ Billions)

Life$2.7 (7%)

Aviation Liability

$3.5 (9%)

Other Liability

$10.0 (25%)

Biz Interruption$11.0 (27%)

Property -WTC 1 & 2$3.5 (9%)

Property - Other

$6.0 (15%)

Aviation Hull$0.5 (1%)

Event Cancellation

$1.0 (2%)

Workers Comp

$2.0 (5%)

Insured Losses Estimate: $40.2BSource: Insurance Information Institute, July 2002

WTC Claim BreakdownTotal Claim Count = 31,232*

Workers Comp4,748

Commercial Property

12,366

Biz Interruption

4,476

Personal Property

8,298

Personal Auto1,251

Commercial Auto/Other

93

*Reported to Disaster Insurance Information Office (DIIO) as of June 5, 2002; Excludes life claims.Source: Insurance Information Institute

Death Toll from September 11 Attack*

3,132TOTAL FATALITIES

44Pennsylvania Hijacked Jet (incl. 4 hijackers)

64Pentagon Hijacked Jet (incl. 5 hijackers)

125Pentagon Victims on Ground

157WTC Hijacked Jets (incl. 10 hijackers)

2,742WTC Victims (workers & visitors)*

Source: Official City of New York estimate as of Jan. 18, 2002; Ins. Info Inst.

*There were also an estimated 2,250 non-fatal injuries

Top 5 Costliest Terrorist Attacks (by insured property loss*)

*Includes business interruption and aviation hull losses.Source: Swiss Re; Insurance Information Institute.

$20,300

$907 $744 $725 $671$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

9/11 TerroristAttacks

Bomb NearNatWestTower inLondon

IRA CarBomb NearManchester

Mall

Bomb in WTCGarage

Bomb inLondon

FinancialDistrict

$ Millions, Adjusted to 2001 Price Level

9/11/01

3,132 Killed

2.250 Injured

4/24/93

1 Killed

54 Injured

6/15/96

0 Killed

228 Injured

2/26/93

6 Killed

725 Injured

4/10/92

3 Killed

91 Injured

Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 cost insurers $125 million

Insured Loss Estimates*(updated through July 19, 2002)

2,913

1,323

952 950 941 900 840 820 769 677 650 645 620 550 468 440

2,3162,275

2,442

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Lloyd's

Munic

h Re

Swiss R

eBerk

Hath

Allianz

Aioi XLSt. P

aul

Zurich

Nissan AIG

Citigro

upHar

tford

ACEChubb

ERCAxaCNAIN

G

Mill

ions

Source: Morgan Stanley, Benfield Research, Insurance Information Institute as of July 19, 2002.

Top 17 Groups (pre-tax, net of reinsurance, $ millions)

9/11 Gross vs. Net Losses*(Life & Non-Life)

Primary62%

Reinsurance38%

*Gross: before adjusting for reinsurance recoverables;Net: After adjusting for reinsurance recoverables.Source: Insurance Information Institute, as of February 2002.

Implies $27B in reinsurance involved. System worked because of spread of risk and reinsurance. What about the next attack?

Primary48%Reinsurance

52%

GROSS LOSSES = $49.3 B NET LOSSES = $22.2 B

$10.6B$11.6B$30.4B$18.8B

10 Costliest Disasters in U.S. History(by insured loss, 2001 $)

$40.2

$19.6$16.3

$5.9$3.2 $2.9 $2.5 $2.4 $2.1 $2.0

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45

Ter

rori

stA

ttac

k: S

ept.

2001

*

Hur

rica

neA

ndre

w:

Aug

ust 1

992

Nor

thri

dge

Ear

thqu

ake:

Jan.

199

4

Hur

rica

neH

ugo:

Sep

t.19

89

Hur

rica

neG

eorg

es: S

ept.

1998

Hur

rica

neB

etsy

: Sep

t.19

65

TS

Alli

son:

Jul

y20

01

Hur

rica

ne O

pal:

Oct

ober

199

5

Hur

rica

neFl

oyd:

Sep

t.19

99

Hur

rica

ne I

niki

:Se

pt. 1

992

$ Billions

*Estimate includes propertyand business interruption losses as well as liability, workers comp,life, aviation and other coverages.

Source: Insurance Services Office, Insurance Information Institute.

World: Top 10 Biggest Catastrophes (by insured loss)

$40

$19.6$16.3

$7.1 $6.1 $6.0 $5.9 $4.6 $4.2 $4.2

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40

Terror

ist A

ttack

s ('01

)*

Hurr. A

ndrew ('9

2)

Northrid

ge Eq.

('94)

Typh. M

ireille

WS D

aria

WS Loth

ar

Hurr. H

ugo ('9

5)

Misc

Storms/F

loods

WS V

ivian

Typh Bar

t

$ Billions, in 2001 $

*III Estimate; Includes life, liability and workers compensation losses.Source: Swiss Re, Insurance Information Institute.

Terrorism Exclusions

ME

NH

MACT

PA

WVVA

NC

LATX

OK

NE

ND

MN

MI

IL

IA

ID

WA

OR

AZ

HI

NJ

RI

MDDE

AL

VT

NY

DC

SC

GA

TN

AL

FL

MS

ARNM

KYMOKS

SD WI

INOH

MT

CA

NVUT

WY

CO

PR

Terrorism Exclusions

Exclusions Approved,Mandatory Fire Following

No Terrorism Exclusion

Exclusions Approved,Fire Following NOT Mandatory

Terror exclusions approved in 45 states + DC and PR

ISO Definition of Terrorism Used in Property and Liability Exclusions:

“Terrorism” means activities against persons, organizations or property of any nature:

1. That involve the following or preparation for the following:

a) Use or threat of force or violence;b) Commission or threat of a dangerous act; orc) Commission or threat of an act that interferes

with or disrupts an electronic, communication, information, or mechanical system; and

Definition of Terrorism Under both Property and Liability Exclusions:

2. When one or both of the following applies:

a) The effect is to intimidate or coerce a government, or to cause chaos among the civilian population or any segment thereof, or to disrupt any segment of the economy; or

b) It is reasonable to believe the intent is to intimidate or coerce a government, or to seek revenge or retaliate, or to further political, ideological, religious, social or economic objectives or to express (or express opposition to) a philosophy or ideology.

Applied to Physical Damage:“Loss or damage caused directly or indirectly by terrorism, including action in hindering or defending against an actual or expected incident of terrorism. Such loss or damage is excluded regardless of any other cause or event that contributes concurrently or in any sequence to the loss.”

Original ISO Exclusion for Property Coverages:

Proposed Exclusion for General Liability Coverages:

Applied to bodily injury, property damage, and personal and advertising injury:

Arising directly or indirectly, out of “terrorism,” including any action taken in hindering or defending against an actual or expected incident of “terrorism” regardless of any other cause or event that contributes concurrently or in any sequence to the injury or damage.

One Major Commercial Insurer’s Endorsement and Definition:

Exclusion of:Any act of one or more persons, whether known or unknown and whether or not agents of a sovereign power, for Terrorist Purposes…

…Terrorist Purposes means the use or threatened use of any unlawful means, including the use of force or violence against any person(s) or propert(ies), for the actual or apparent purpose of intimidating, coercing, punishing or affecting society or some portion of society or government.

NEXT ATTACK: Will the war exclusion apply?

Cyberrisks & Terrorism

What Does Cyber(Usually) Insurance Cover?*

• Denial or Loss of Service• Malicious intrusion (e.g., hacking) • Theft of intellectual property (e.g., patents, copyrights)• Theft of confidential information (e.g., credit card data)• Extra expense costs (to recreate data & get back online)• Expert assistance• Liable/Slander• Cyber-extortion (e.g., Implication for the Insurance

Industry• NOTE: Traditional commercial property/liability policies

may provide little or no protection.Source: Insurance Information Institute *Terms of coverage can vary considerably by company.

CyberInsurance & Terrorism• Insurer definition of terror broad enough to include

terrorism, therefore exclusion could apply if added• Insurers could easily exclude, so far appear to have

not done soThreat from terrorism not significantly distinct from ordinary cyberrisks (e.g., hacking, DOS, viruses, etc.)

Source: Insurance Information Institute

What About the Next Attack?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov. 0

1Dec

. 01

Jan-0

2Feb

-02Mar-

02Apr-

02May

-02

Jun-0

2

Jul-0

2Aug

-02Sep

-02

Oct-02

Nov-0

2Dec

-02

Insurers Overexposed to Terror Risk in 2002

Source: Insurance Information Institute* Excludes workers comp, which will carry no terrorism exclusion.

%

Insurer Exposure to Terrorism•+/- 70% reinsurance treaties expired 12/31/01•+/- 30% expire 6/30/02•Underlying policies renewed w/terror exclusion gradually as they expire

+/-70% Reinsurance Treaties Expired 12/31/01+/-30% Reinsurance Treaty

Coverage 1/1/02 – 6/30/020% Thereafter

100%

Rei

nsur

ance

Tre

aty

Cov

erag

e Pr

ior

to J

an. 1

, 200

2

Proportion of Commercial Risks

With Terrorism Coverage

Included in Basic Coverage

UNREINSURED EXPOSURE

UNREINSURED EXPOSURE

GAO Report: Highlights Economic Vulnerabilities

• GAO Report Released February 27, 2002• Major Findings:www.house.gov/financialservices/022702t2.htm

1. Insurers Shifting Terrorism Risk to Property Owners/Businesses

Reinsurers withdrawing from market for terrorismPrimary insurers excluding coverage as their exposure increases

2. As Business Exposure to Uninsured Risks Rise, so do Potential Economic Consequences

Economic consequences from next attack could be more severe3. Potential Economic Consequences of Not Having Terrorism

Insurance are Cause for Concern• Conclusions

Congressional action is “properly a matter of public policy”Consequences of inaction are “may be real and potentially large”

“A decision not to act could have debilitating financial consequences for for businesses…their employees, lenders, suppliers, and customers.”Government will face difficulties if it waits to act after an attack: “difficult to implements quickly—and extremely expensive.”

Joint Economic Committee,US Congress: Report Findings

• JEC Report Released May 2002; Heavy III input

• Major Findings:

1. Market for Terrorism Insurance Remains LimitedOnly small number of insurers actively providing stand-alone terror coverWhen available, coverage is expensive, limited and offered with restrictive terms

2. Problems Associated with Terrorism Insurance Pose a Significant Threat to Sustained Economic Growth

Lack of terror insurance stopping some business deals, esp. real estate and construction projects where terror cover necessary to obtain fundingHigh cost of terror insurance diverts resources from other more productive uses, negatively affecting investments and jobs.Low coverage limits mean that businesses are bearing a huge amount of risk themselves. In the event of another attack, insurance payments will not be available to the same degree for rebuilding.

Commercial Real Estate:Value at Risk*

Replacement Cost of

Structures52%

Inventory 13%

Equipment & Software

35%

*As of 12/31/2000; Excludes residential real estate.Source: Morgan Stanley, FDIC, Federal Reserve; Insurance Information Institute.

TOTAL = $10.6 TrillionWithout terror bill more of this risk will be shifted

to business/property owners

$1.40 Trillion

$3.70 Trillion

$5.53 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate Debt:Debt at Risk*

Real Estate/ Mortagage

Loans85%

Lease Receivables ($0.17 Tr)

2%Industrial

Loans13%

*As of 12/31/2000; Excludes residential real estate.Source: Morgan Stanley, FDIC, Federal Reserve; Insurance Information Institute.

TOTAL = $8.2 Trillion

Without terror bill more of this risk will be shifted to

commercial lenders/landlords

$1.08 Trillion

$6.94 Trillion

Most Businesses Have Little or No Terrorism Coverage

Lenders vs. Commercial Mortgage Holders•Cigna/Durst/4 Times Square/$5 mill for cover•GMAC require purchase on 40,000 properties w/$100 billion in loans across US.

Purchased Separate Coverage

6%

Limited Coverage

26%

Full Coverage18%

No Coverage50%

Source: Prudential Securities: 2002 Insurance Buyers Survey, June 2002

Lack of coverage underscores need for

federal backstop

But Most Banks Don’t Yet Seem to Recognize the Risk

BANKER POLL: Rejection Rate for High-Profile or Heavy Traffic Commercial Real

Estate Properties (Since 9/11) Has…

Increased Substantially

1.9%

Increased Moderately

1.9%

Stayed about Same

40.4%

Bank has received no applications

for such projects55.8%

Source: Federal Reserve survey of large bank lending practices, April 2002.

But Most Banks Don’t Yet Seem to Recognize the Risk

BANKER POLL: Rejection Rate for Commercial Real Estate Properties (Since 9/11) Has…

Increased Substantially

0%

Increased Moderately

5.9%

Stayed about Same

80.4%

Bank has received no applications

for such projects13.7%

Source: Federal Reserve survey of large bank lending practices, April 2002.

Federal Backstop:Winner/Loser Matrix

SCENARIO 2WINNERS:•Primary insurers/Reinsurers/Brokers•Capital Markets-Focused Firms; Less so for credit-sensitive firms

LOSERS:•REITs

SCENARIO 3WINNERS:•Reinsurers/Brokers•Capital Markets-Focused Firms•Asset managers w/fixed-income focus

LOSERS:•Primary insurers•REITs•Credit Sensitive Firms•Asset managers w/equity focus

SCENARIO 1WINNERS:•Primary insurers/Reinsurers/Brokers•REITS

LOSERS: None

SCENARIO 4WINNERS:•Primary insurers/Reinsurers/Brokers•Capital Markets-Focused Firms

LOSERS:•REITs•Credit Sensitive Firms

TERRORISM BILL PASSES

NO TERRORISM BILL PASSES

ATTACKSOCCUR

NOATTACKS

OCCUR

Source: Morgan Stanley

Capacity:

How Much Money Do We Really Have?

Capital Myth 1: Insurers Have $4 Trillion in Assets to Pay Terrorism Claims

$3,139 (77%)

$931 (23%)

Source: Insurance Insurance Information Institute

The FactsP/C insurers have $931 billion in assets compared to $3.1 trillion for life insurers

Total = $4.1 Trillion (as of 12/31/00)

P/C

LIFE

Capital Myth 2: P/C Insurers Have Nearly$1 Trillion in Assets to Pay Terrorism Claims

Liabilities ($594.6B)

64%

PH Surplus ($317.4B)

34%

Non-Admitted Assets ($19B)

2%

Source: Insurance Information Institute; A.M. Best

The Facts66% of Assets are offset by liabilities

(mostly reserves) or are non-admitted

Assets = Liabilities + Policyholder Surplus

Capital Myth 3: P/C Insurers Have $300 Billion to Pay Terrorism Claims

"Target" Commercial*$100 billion

33%

Other Commercial$50 billion

17%

Personal$150 billion

50%

Total PHS = $298.2 B as of 6/30/01

*”Target” Commercial includes: Comm property, liability and workers comp; Surplus must also back-up on non-terrorist related property/liability and WC claims.Source: Insurance Information Institute

The FactsOnly 33% of industry

surplus backs up “target” lines.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01

Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2002*

*As of 1st quarter 2002Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

Bill

ions

(US$

)

Surplus Peaked at $336.3 Billion in 1999

•Surplus decreased 8.7% in 2001 to $289.6 Billion.

•Surplus rose 1.9% in the 1st quarter of 2002

•Surplus is now lower than at year-end 1997.

“Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations

Capacity Crunch Brings Opportunity

Rapid rush of capital in to offshore domiciles; U.S. and European insurers had no problem raising cash equity and bond markets

But some new cash is hedge fund/venture capital = short term

“Flight to Quality” Big, highly-rated insurers benefit

Risk modeling firms begin research:Terror risk generallyWC especially (no terror exclusions approved)

Source: Insurance Information Institute.

Fresh Capital: Top 15 Deals(Completed as of July 12, 2002)

CGNU $1,700DSwiss Re 1,600VAxis (Marsh) 1,600SAce Ltd. 1,150SWinterthur 1,100UAIG 1,000CDMontpelier 1,000PEConverium 985SAllied World 959SXL Capital 819S

Endurance 800VArch Capital 763SChubb 600DSt. Paul 575TPWellington 564SALL OTHERS 7,281Total Completed = $28,037

Pending = $16,431GRAND TOTAL = $44,468

Will they shorten the hard market?Type of Issuance: CD=Convertible Debt; D= Debt; PE=Private Equity;S=Stock;TP=Trust Preferred; U=Unspecified; V=Various Source: Morgan Stanley

Capital Raising by P/C Insurers Since September 11, 2001*

$20,492

$7,545

$11,059

$5,372

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

2001 2002*

($ M

illio

ns)

Completed Pending

$25.9 Billion

$18.6 Billion

*As of July 12, 2002.

Source: Morgan Stanley

15 Pending

32 Pending

40 Completed

26 Completed

Capital Raising by P/C Insurers Since 9/11 Totals $44.5B

Financial Implications for the U.S. Non-Life Insurance Industry

P/C Net Income After Taxes1991-2002 ($ Millions)

$14,178

$5,840

$19,316

$10,870

$20,598$24,404

$36,819

$30,773

$21,865$20,223

-$7,921

$20,420

-$10,000

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02**I.I.I. estimate based on first quarter 2002 data.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

2001 was the first year ever with a full year net loss

2002 Q1 ROE = 6.9%

95

100

105

110

115

120

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00

02**

P/C Industry Combined Ratio

2001 = 116.0

2002 Forecast* = 108.0

2002 Q1: 102.3

Combined Ratios

1970s: 100.3

1980s: 109.2

1990s: 107.7

Sources: A.M. Best; III

* Based on III 2002 Groundhog Forecast

110.

5

105.

0

113.

6 119.

2

104.

8

100.

8

100.

5

114.

3

107.

2

142.

9

102.

3108.

8 115.

8

106.

9

108.

5

106.

5

105.

8

101.

6 105.

6

107.

7

110.

1 116.

0

101.

6

126.

5

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002*

Reinsurance All Lines Combined Ratio

Combined Ratio:Reinsurance vs. P/C Industry

*First Quarter 2002Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Reinsurance Association of America, Insurance Information Institute

2001’s combined ratio was the worst-ever for reinsurers

($60)

($50)

($40)

($30)

($20)

($10)

$0

$1019

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

02

Underwriting Gain (Loss)1975-2002*

*Annualized estimate based on first quarter 2002 data.Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

$ B

illio

ns

P-C insurers paid $53 billion more in claims & expenses than they collected in premiums

in 2001

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

*

US P/C Insurers All US Industries

ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2002*

*EstimateSource: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune

U.S. InsuredCatastrophe Losses

$7.5

$2.7$4.7

$22.9

$5.5

$16.9

$8.3 $7.3

$2.6

$10.1$8.3

$4.3

$24.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

* Includes $16.6B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims.Source: Property Claims Service, Insurance Information Institute

$ BillionsCAT Losses for 2001 Set a Record

•20 events (lowest since 1969)•1.5 million claims

•9/11: $16.6B = 74,000 claims

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

US P/C Insurers All US Industries LifeDiversified Finl. Comm. Banks

ROE: Financial Services Industry Segments, 1987–2001

Source: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune

Combined Ratio Components

108.1 106.8103.1

1.5

8.8

3.0

0.6

1.4

1.5

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2001E 2002E

"Normalized" Losses Catastrophe Losses Asbestos & Environmental

117.0

110.1 107.5

WTC losses accounted for almost 6 pts. on the

2001 combined ratio

Source: A.M. Best.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

*Estimate based on first quarter 2002Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

Growth in Net Premiums Written (All P/C Lines)

2000: 5.1%

2001: 8.1%

2002: 10.3%*

The underwriting cycle went AWOL in the 1990s.

It’s Back!

Pricing:

What’s Going On?

Pre-Sept. 11: Average Price Change of Commercial Insurance Renewals

9.5%

13.5%

8.8%

10.0%

12.0%

11.0%

8.9%

6.1%

9.5%

8.0%

8.3%

7.9%

9.0%

-1.6%

-1.2%

-0.4%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-11.0%

-6.0%

-10.0%

-7.0%

-3.0%

1.4%

0.8%

3.5%

3.2%

3.2%

2.8%

4.1%

-2.1%

-2.8%

-1.8%

0.2%

-5.0%

-4.4%

-3.5%

-4.3%

-6.6%

-4.1%

-2.0%

-13%

-11%

-9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11%

13%

E&S

Umbrella

Workers' Comp

Commercial Property

CMP

General Liability

Commercial Auto

Spring 2001 Fall 2000 Spring 2000 Fall 99 Spring 99 Fall 98Source: Conning

CIAB Rate Survey

20%

31% 31%30%

55%50%

45%

81%

63%

44%

77% 74%

62%

82%91%

97%98%89%

Q3:00 Q4:00 Q1:01 Q2:01 Q3:01 Q4:01SMALL

Q3:00 Q4:00 Q1:01 Q2:01 Q3:01 Q4:01MEDIUM

Q3:00 Q4:00 Q1:01 Q2:01 Q3:01 Q4:01LARGE

Commercial Accounts (Q3:00 – Q4:01)% of Respondents indicating price increases > 10%

Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

CIAB Rate SurveySecond Quarter 2002

Rate Increases By Size of AccountRate Increases By Size of AccountNoNo

Change Up 1Change Up 1--10% 1010% 10--20% 2020% 20--30% 3030% 30--50% 50%50% 50%--100% >100%100% >100%

Small (<$25K) 4% 8% 40% 35% 7% 1% 0%

Med ($25-$100K) 1% 4% 19% 43% 28% 1% 0%

Large (>$100K) 1% 4% 10% 32% 31% 4% 3%

Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

CIAB Rate SurveySecond Quarter 2002

Rate Increases By Line of BusinessRate Increases By Line of BusinessNoNo

Change Up 1Change Up 1--10% 1010% 10--20% 2020% 20--30% 3030% 30--50% 50%50% 50%--100% >100%100% >100%

Comm. Auto 2% 6% 28% 39% 21% 1% 1%

Workers Comp 5% 13% 19% 32% 15% 5% 2%

General Liability 2% 9% 24% 45% 15% 2% 1%

Comm. Umbrella 2% 4% 10% 20% 27% 17% 16%

Comm. Property 3% 4% 16% 30% 31% 13% 1%

Business Interr. 3% 8% 32% 33% 10% 1% 0%

Surety Bonds 10% 13% 16% 14% 6% 0% 1%

Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02*

Rate On Line Index(1989=100)

Source: Guy Carpenter * III Estimate

Prices rising, limits falling: ROL up significantly

Cost of Risk per $1,000 of Revenues: 1990-2002E

$6.10$6.40

$8.30$7.70

$7.30

$6.49

$5.70$5.25

$5.71

$5.20$4.83

$5.55

$7.22

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01E 02E

Source: 2001 RIMS Benchmark Survey; Insurance Information Institute estimates.

Cost of risk to corporations could rise sharply in 2002; About half of increase due to 9/11

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

*Estimate based on first quarter 2002Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

Growth in Net Premiums Written (All P/C Lines)

2000: 5.1%

2001: 8.1%

2002: 10.3%*

The underwriting cycle went AWOL in the 1990s.

It’s Back!

Cause for Rise in Insurance and Reinsurance Pricing

WTC has made underwriters aware of new types of risks and larger potential lossesStandard deviation of loss is wider than previously expectedAmount of risk capital required to support insurance is greater than formerly understoodIndustry’s liquidity needs are greater than previously understoodCapacity being reduced results in supply versus demand pressuresInvestment shortfallsMany problems beyond WTC (Enron, D&O, med mal…)

Reasons Why Market Will Remain Hard

• Total capital raised less than what was lost from 9/11• Capacity lost is greater than dollar losses from attack

suggestMore caution on the part of insurers/reinsurers means more capital needed per dollar of risk assumed

• Demand up (we’re more at risk as a nation now)• Poor results in many important lines for reason other

than 9/11• Poor investment results• Wall Street pressure

Assessing the Threat of Terrorism to the Insurance Industry:

Terrorism Modelling &Risk Analysis

Property Exposure Per Location Overview

Source: Modelling by Herbert Clough. Inc.

Midtown Manhattan1,000 ft Radius

Source: Modelling by Herbert Clough. Inc.

Property and Worker’s Comp Exposure Per Location

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92

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Property Exposure(in $)

2,000,000 to 42,400,000100,000 to 2,000,000

1,000 to 100,000

Employees Per Location

: Over 50

: 5 to 50

: 1 to 5

Herbert Clough Inc. 11/2001

Property And Worker's CompExposure Per Location

New York, NY

Source: Modelling by Herbert Clough. Inc.

Indian Point Power Plant*10 Mile Radius

Total Exposure - $27.6M

Source: Modelling by Herbert Clough, Inc. *Peekskill, NY

Terror Coverage Criteria & Offering Companies

Key CriteriaSize of CompanySize of Class of RisksGeographic Spread of ExposureLines of BusinessDesired CapacityQuality of Available DataWillingness to Pay Premium

Property Per RiskReadily Available (including NBC)Opportunistic PremiumCapacity Up to Occurrence Limits

Companies Offering CoverACE-USAAIGAllianzArch CapitalAXIS SpecialtyBerkshire HathawayOil Insurance LtdLloyd’s of LondonSpecialty Risk Insurance & Reinsurance Luxembourg [Zurich, XL, Swiss Re, SCOR, HannoverRe, Allianz)

Source: GeneralCologne Re;The Betterley Report and Risk and Insurance.

The Federal Backstop for Property/Casualty Insurance:

What’s Happening in Washington?

What Insurers Want in aFederal Backstop

• Public/private plan• Maximizes availability• Minimizes costs

A Federal Backstop for Insuring the Peril of Terrorism

• SENATE (S.B. 2600, passes June 18, 2002)2-yr planIndustry aggregate deductible of $10B in 2002, $15B in 2003

Company deductible = (Mkt. Share) x ($10B) in 2002, (x $15B in 2003)80% fed share below $10B, 90% aboveGovt. liability capped at $100B

• HOUSE (H.R. 3210, passed Nov. 29, 2001)3-year loan guarantee program

Industrywide losses must exceed $1B, orindustrywide losses exceed $100 million and those losses exceed 10% of surplus and 10% of net premium written of an individual commercial carrier.

Criticized by industry for complexity of loan repayment/ assessment formula; some view triggers as too high.

• Original Industry Proposal: Pool (similar to Pool Re in U.K.)Called for creation of pool that would receive premiums for terrorist act coverage and pay lossesFed steps in only as pool becomes depletedEffort failed early on

Federal Terrorism Insurance Program?

Government Backed Terrorism Insurance Isn’t Unprecedented

Terrorism Risk Insurance

Country Provider DetailsUnited Kingdom Pool Re Created in 1990’s due to IRA terrorism losses.Spain Consorcio Covers “Extraordinary Risks” such as Earthquake,

Volcanic Eruption, Flood, Storm, Terrorism and Civil Commotion

South Africa SASRIA Created in 1929 due to political climate in South Africa - still in existence today.

Israel PTCF Covers losses triggered by politically motivated violence (including terrorism).

France GAREAT Created post September 11, pool with state guarantee for terrorism coverage.

Source: Swiss Re Focus Report: Terrorism

Why is a Terrorism Insurance Program so Hard to Get???

U.S. Government Backed Insurance Isn’t Unprecedented

• FDIC (bank deposits)

• National Flood Insurance Program

• The Price-Anderson Act (Nuclear Contamination)

• Federal Crop Insurance

• The Overseas Private Investment Corp. (Overseas Political Risk)

• The National Insurance Development Program (Urban Riots and Civil Disorder)

Insurance Information Institute On-Line

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