THE LONG FORM CENSUS, DISASTER PLANNING AND OTHER USES YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU'D BE

MISSING

Ottawa Statistical Society 8th Annual Seminar

Wendy Watkins

Carleton University Library Data Centre

October 25, 2010

INTRODUCTION

Purpose of this presentation is to introduce you to things you wouldn’t normally associate with a census

To do this we will: have a brief look at products from the 2006

census check out the levels of geography available with

the 2006 census look at the continuum of access from free to

restricted examine a couple of examples of things we will

NOT be able to do with the National Household Survey (NHS)

CENSUS DATA PRODUCTS

GEOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

_______________________________________________

OR, MORE SIMPLY ….

2006 census geography Canada Province Large cities Municipalities Neighbourhoods Areas smaller than neighbourhoods Blocks

2011 National Household Survey Likely to lose everything below the municipal

level because of data quality issues

CONTINUUM FROM DIY TO DISTC Completely Open

Statistics Canada Census 2006 website Open on location

Depository Services Program Level of detail is slightly better here

Open with membership Data Liberation Initiative

Academics only; desktop analyses

Restricted (requires intervention by Statistics Canada) Research data centres

Largely academics; some government All output vetted for disclosure by Statistics Canada

Custom tabulations Anyone with money

Remote job submission Experimental; real thing coming soon

WHAT WE WON’T BE ABLE TO DO AS WELL

Many research questions require several types of data Aggregate data at fine levels of geography

Not likely to survive Census public use microdata (PUMF)

No PUMF for 2011 Too few variables

NHS PUMF No idea what it may or may not be able to contain Depends on data quality Could produce a distorted picture of Canadians as

richer, whiter and better educated than we really are Not likely useful for policy-making

3 EXAMPLES OF THINGS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU’D BE MISSING

Public health H1N1 vaccination plans

Study of refugee adaptation Very detailed study 5 years after Project 4000

Disaster Planning Sophisticated modelling using detailed Census

data to increase the ratio between rescue and recovery

PUBLIC HEALTH – H1N1 PLANNING

PUBLIC HEALTH – H1N1

Officials used 2006 Census data to locate clinics in neighbourhoods with: high density low income high proportion of new Canadians

Also used language data to determine whether languages other than English and French were required

Can certainly get density information from 2A form

Cannot get the same level of refinement for planning with the NHS

TONY CLEMENT, JULY 21, 2010 There has been considerable commentary about the federal

government's decision to replace the 2011 mandatory long-form census with the voluntary National Household Survey. The government made this decision because we do not believe Canadians should be forced, under threat of fines, jail, or both, to disclose extensive private and personal information.

We believe it is not appropriate to compel citizens to divulge how many bedrooms they have in their houses or what time they leave for work in the morning.

PROJECT 4000, REFUGEE ADAPTATION STUDY

PROJECT 4000, REFUGEE ADAPTATION STUDY

PROJECT 4000, REFUGEE ADAPTATION STUDY

Complex study of Vietnamese refugees Used interviews, survey questionnaires and

Census data Census variables used:

Crowding Number of bedrooms Number of people in the household

Employment Education Official language acquisition Language spoken at home Language spoken at work Etc., etc.

DISASTER PLANNING

DISASTER PLANNING

Remember Clement’s intrusive variables: Number of bedrooms Time people leave for work

Complex study undertaken by an Environmental Studies graduate student and a researcher in the US

Developed a model to be used to try to increase the ratio of the rescued (alive) to the recovered (dead)

Used a wide selection of long form data

DISASTER PLANNING (CON’T)

Housing stock variables Age of dwelling State of repair

Time people left for work Distances travelled Crowding

Number of bedrooms Number of people in the household

Developed scenarios for first responders based on which structures were likely to collapse when certain areas were likely to be occupied or

empty (time of day, day of week, etc.) Based response decisions on various scenarios

WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US?

Census decision may actually end up costing more than data quality, but perhaps for the government, the following is more important:

Canadians will not be able to hold the government accountable for its policies since its election without comparable data.

QUESTION

Could this be what’s really behind the decision to kill the long form census?

MORE INFORMATION

http://datalibre.ca/census-watch/ http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/

group.php?gid=134479453241171 http://

www.evaluationcanada.ca/affichage/ccsd_20101029_e.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-economists/economists-unite-you-have-nothing-to-lose-but-data/article1829559/

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/12/12/ns-long-form-census-being-challenged-in-court-again.html

http://www.evaluationcanada.ca/affichage/ccsd_20101029_e.pdf