the location affordability portal: understanding the ......jun 17, 2014 · efficiency...
TRANSCRIPT
JoshGeyerU.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentOfficeofSustainableHousingandCommunitiesJanuary9,2014
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Why is accounting for transportation costs important? Affordability– Majorcomponentofthecostofliving
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Housing32.8
Transportation17.5Food
12.8
Personalinsuranceandpensions10.9
HealthCare6.9
Entertainment5.1
Cashcontributions
3.7
ApparelandSvcs3.4
Allothercategories
6.8
DistributionofConsumerExpenditures,2012CES
AllConsumerUnits
Why is accounting for transportation costs important? Affordability– Majorcomponentofthecostofliving Efficiency– internalizingexternalitiesaffects…
Economiccompetitiveness– daylightstimeandmoneyspentontransportationthatcouldgodirectlytowardproductivity(seeGrowingWealthier)
Governance– policymakerscanbemorestrategicaboutlanduse,transportationinvestments
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(growing wealthier slide)
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Why is accounting for transportation costs important? Affordability– Majorcomponentofthecostofliving Efficiency– internalizingexternalitiesaffects…
Economiccompetitiveness– daylightstimeandmoneyspentontransportationthatcouldgodirectlytowardproductivity(seeGrowingWealthier)
Governance– policymakerscanbemorestrategicaboutlanduse,transportationinvestments
Equity– informedconsumerscanbetterunderstandtheiroptions,allowingthemtooptimizeundercurrentconditionsoradvocateforpolicychanges
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[equity slide – findings?]
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Consequences of the status quo Sprawl
Policiesfavordevelopmentoninexpensive,undevelopedland
Households,incentivizedbythesepolicies,movefartherfromurbancoresinsearchoflessexpensivehousingbutmaynotachievemoreaffordabilitybecauseofhightransportationcosts
Inefficiency– wastedtime,money,naturalresources
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Why Look at Combined Transportation and Housing Costs? Transportationisthesecond‐biggesthouseholdbudgetitemaftermortgagepaymentsorrent(andexceedshousingcostsformanylower‐incomeandruralfamilies)
Bothhousingandtransportationcostsaretiedtolocationanddemographiccharacteristics
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Site Objectives Provideconsumerswithuser‐friendlyinformationonthecombinedhousingandtransportationcostsforparticularlocations
Enablemunicipalities,planningorganizations,andresearcherstoaccessandusethisdataforplanningandresearchapplications
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Advances over previous models Expandedto942metroandmicropolitanareascovering94%oftheU.S.population
Usesmorerecentdataandmoreadvancedanalysisandmodelingtechniques
Easilynavigablewebsitethatdisplaysaffordabilitylevelsfor8differenthouseholdprofiles
IncludesaCostCalculatorthatproducescustomizedcostestimates
Alldataavailablefordownloadandthoroughdocumentation
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Index specifications Description:indicateshousingandtransportationcostsasapercentageofincomeforvarioushouseholdprofilesattheneighborhoodlevel
Geographicalunitofanalysis:Censusblockgroup Coveragearea:942CBSAs Lastupdate:July2013(2006‐2010ACS) Nextupdate:August2014(2008‐2012ACS)
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Data sources U.S.CensusAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS) (2006‐2010)
U.S.CensusTIGER/LineFiles U.S.CensusLongitudinalEmployment‐HouseholdDynamics(LEHD)Origin‐DestinationEmploymentStatistics(LODES) (2010)
NationalTransitDatabase (2008)
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Data sources ConsumerExpenditureSurvey(2008) AllTransit database– developedbytheCenterforNeighborhoodTechnology
IllinoisStateodometerreadings– acquiredfromtheIllinoisEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyforvehiclesinthestate’snon‐attainmentareas(theChicagoandSt.Louismetroareas)for2007and2009
NationalHouseholdTravelSurvey(2009)
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Independent variables Operationalizethedeterminantsoftransportationbehaviors: Populationdensity Walkability Transitaccessandquality Employmentaccessanddiversity Percapitaincome Householddemographics(income,numberofmembers,numberofcommuters)
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Variable Description DataSource
GrossDensity #ofhouseholds/totalacres CensusACS,TIGER/Linefiles
ResidentialDensity #householdsinresidentialblocks/totalacresinresidentialblocks
CensusACS,TIGER/Linefiles
BlockSize #ofblocks/totallandarea CensusTIGER/Linefiles
IntersectionDensity #ofintersections/totallandarea CensusTIGER/Linefiles
TransitConnectivityIndex
Transitaccessasafunctionoftransitservicefrequencyandproximitytotransitnodes,weightedbyobservedjourneytoworkdata
AllTransitdatabase
TransitAccessShedOptimalaccessibleareabypublictransportationwithin30minutesandonetransfer
AllTransitdatabase
TransitFrequencyofService
ServicefrequencywithaTransitAccessShed AllTransit database
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Variable Description DataSource
JobDiversityIndexFunctionofthecorrelationbetweenemploymentin20differentindustrysectorsandautosperhousehold
CensusLEHD‐LODES
AverageMedianCommuteDistance
Calculatedfromdataonspatialdistributionsofworkers'employmentandresidentiallocationsandtherelationbetweenthetwoattheCensusBlocklevel
CensusLEHD‐LODES
MedianHouseholdIncome CensusACS
AverageHouseholdSize
CalculatedfromdataonTenureandTotalPopulationinOccupiedHousingUnitsbyTenure
CensusACS
Per‐capitaHouseholdIncome
Medianhouseholdincome/averagehouseholdsize CensusACS
AverageCommutersperHousehold
Calculatedusingthetotalnumberofworkers16yearsandoverwhodonowworkathome
CensusACS21
Dependent variables –transportation behavior
Variable DataSourceCarsperhousehold CensusACS
AnnualVMTperhousehold
IllinoisDepartmentofVehicleServices,NationalHouseholdTravelSurvey
Percentageofcommutersusingtransit CensusACS
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Regression modeling
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# Householdtype Familymembers Income Commuters
1 RegionalTypical AverageHouseholdSizeforRegion
MedianIncomeforRegion
AveragenumberofCommutersperHouseholdforRegion
2 RegionalModerate AverageHouseholdSizeforRegion
80%ofMedianincomeforRegion
AveragenumberofCommutersperHouseholdforRegion
3 LowIncome 350%ofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentAreaMedianFamilyIncome
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4 SinglePersonVeryLowIncome 1 NationalPovertyLine 1
5 SingleProfessional 1 200%ofPerCapitaIncomeforRegion 1
6 SingleWorker 1 MedianPerCapitalIncomeforRegion 1
7 Dual‐IncomeFamily 4 150%ofMedianIncomeforRegion 2
8 Retirees 2 80%ofMedianIncomeforRegion 0 24
Regression modeling
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Calculating auto costs
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Modeling housing costs
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DependentVariable DataSource
SelectedMonthlyOwnershipCosts CensusACS
GrossRent CensusACS
Modeling housing costs
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Limitations and additional considerations HighmarginsoferrorforsomekeyACSvariables Doesnottakeintoaccountvariationinhousingqualityorsometypesofcommunitycharacteristics(e.g.,schoolquality,publicsafety,naturalamenities,pollutionexposure)
Measureshousingcostsirrespectiveofhowmuchhousingisbeingusedandwhetherhousingissubsidized
Nowaytovaluetraveltimesystematically
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Version 2 UpdatedtoACS2008‐2012 MovingtoaSimultaneousEquationsModel Willincludeadditionalvariablesfor
Housingcharacteristics(%SFattached,rooms/dwelling)
Tenuresplit Localamenities(proxied byretailjobs)
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Determinants of household affordability Densityofresidentialdevelopmentandtransitconnectivityarethemostimportantindividualdriversofcarownershipandcarusage
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Autoownership(bivariateR‐squared)
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Autoownership(cumulativeR‐square,step‐wisemultivariate)
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AnnualVMT(bivariateR‐squared)
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AnnualVMT(cumulativeR‐square,step‐wisemultivariate)
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Distribution of affordability and opportunity Premise:justknowinghousingandtransportationcostsisn’tenoughtoattainhighqualityoflife
Otherfactors(notexhaustive): Safety Accesstopublicamenities(e.g.parks,beaches,views) Schoolquality Povertyconcentration Collectivesocialcapital Exposuretoenvironmentalhazards
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Distribution of affordability and opportunity
Focusedon7regionsrepresentingadiversityofsizes,housingmarkets,regionaleconomies
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Matrixofallblockgroupsdividedintoquintilesbybothpovertyandopportunity(operationalizedinopportunityindicesdevelopedbyHUDforFairHousingandEquityAssessments)
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Averagetransportationcostpercentileforblockgroupscategorizedbypovertyandopportunityquintiles
Poverty/Opportunity
LowestOpportunity
LowOpportunity
MediumOpportunity
HighOpportunity
HighestOpportunity
HighestPoverty
23% 35% 40% 50% 53%
HighPoverty
34% 45% 51% 54% 66%
MediumPoverty
37% 50% 55% 57% 66%
LowPoverty 39% 51% 58% 63% 64%
LowestPoverty
30% 44% 59% 65% 61%
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Distributionofblockgroupsbypovertyandopportunityquintiles
Poverty/Opportunity
LowestOpportunity
LowOpportunity
MediumOpportunity
HighOpportunity
HighestOpportunity
HighestPoverty 11.6% 5.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.4%
HighPoverty 5.0% 6.6% 4.5% 2.4% 1.5%
MediumPoverty 1.8% 4.1% 5.5% 4.1% 4.5%
LowPoverty 1.1% 2.5% 4.8% 6.3% 5.4%
LowestPoverty 0.5% 1.8% 3.5% 6.0% 8.2%
Predictors of regional average household transportation costs
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Lookedat9potentialaffordabilitydeterminantsattheregionallevel: Vacancyrate Autosperhousehold GDPpercapita(2011) GrowthinGDPpercapita,2001‐2011 CoreCitygrowth,1970‐2010 Shareofjobs10‐35milesfromCBD CompactnessScore(measuresdensityandsprawl) Population(2010) Percentofcommutersusingpublictransit
Multiple R 0.8845 Adjusted R‐square 0.7555 Observations 83
R‐square 0.7824 Standard Error 1.6930
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Multivariateregressionanalysis
Variable Name Value Standard Error P‐value
Intercept 43.9789 5.1328 0.0000*
Vacancy Rate 26.2087 7.8042 0.0012*
Autos/HH 6.2174 2.2337 0.0068*
GDP Per Capita 2011 ‐0.0001 0.0000 0.0007*
GDP Per Capita Growth 2001‐2011 0.8094 2.4976 0.7468
Core City Growth 1970‐2010 ‐0.3143 0.1609 0.0546
Share of Jobs 10 to 35 Miles from CBD ‐0.0406 0.0153 0.0098*
Compactness Score ‐0.1637 0.0248 0.0000*
2010 Population 0.0000 0.0000 0.7460
Percent Commutes by Public Transportation 30.7197 11.2503 0.0079*
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Standardizedbetas(absolutevalue)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
CompactnessScore
PercentCommutesbyPublicTransportation
GDPPerCapita2011
VacancyRate
Autos/HH
ShareofJobs10to35MilesfromCBD
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RegionalMedianIncomeandtransportationvs.housingcostburdens
Current applications Regionalandcomprehensiveplanning– prioritizingsitingofnewresidentialandaffordablehousing,targetingurbanrevitalizationstrategies,decreasingcombinedcostburdens
Transportationplanning Scenarioevaluation– usedasaninputtohelpdeterminepreferredgrowthscenarios
Homebuyercounseling Publicengagement/communication
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Contact Information
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JoshGeyer
U.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment
OfficeofEconomicResilience
(415)4896418