the limits of us: the producers of the knowledge that shape the state of the planet
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The Limits of Us: The Producers of the Knowledge that shape the State of the Planet. Michael Crow Columbia University November 16, 1999. State of the Planet (It’s not the planet it’s us!). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Limits of Us:The Producers of the
Knowledgethat shape the State of the Planet
Michael Crow
Columbia University
November 16, 1999
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State of the Planet(It’s not the planet it’s us!)
A dynamic interactive system of biogeochemical cycles that are being significantly influenced by an emerging intelligent life-form. This life-form has some serious limits in cognition and self-awareness as well as a number of other intellectual and physical constraints.
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The Limits of Us
Basic Argument: Our inability to understand our intellectual and organizational limits and find mechanisms to address them has placed our species’ dynamic nature and earth’s future in conflict.
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And transformed the face of the earth- Eliminating >20% bird species
- Increasing atmospheric CO2 by ~ 30%
- Intercepting > 40% of terrestrial production
- Using >50% freshwater runoff
- Fully/overexploiting > 60% marine fisheries
- Increasing atmospheric CH4 by >140%
- Introducing >70,000 synthetic chemicals
Source: W. Clark
1999
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The Limits of Us
1) Socio-Biological Limits
2) Human Comprehension Limits
3) Limits of Science
4) Socio-Economic Limits
5) Philosophical Limits
6) Technological Limits
7) Organizational Limits
8) Personal Limits
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Socio-Biological Limits
• Difficulty determining group risk
• Very competitive species
• Humans as independent free agents
• Limited intergenerational thinking capacity
• Nomadic tendency for solving problems
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Individual Risk vs. Group Risk
• Outgoing longwave radiation down >1%
• Fixation of nitrogen up >2x
• Invasion by exotic organisms up >3x
• Sediment loads in rivers up >5x
• Release of lead up >20x
• Extinction of species up >100-1000x
Data Source: W. Clark
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Human Comprehension Limits
• Limited ability to understand scale effects
• Large number limits
• Limited ability to understand sustainability as a concept
• Inability to understand cumulative effect of hundreds or thousands of generations
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Global Population
•A.D. 1400 350 million
•1700 680 million
•1800 900 million
•1900 1.65 billion
•1986/87 5 billion
(B.L. Turner, et al., 1993, pp. 1, 21)
•1999 6 billion
(current news)
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Water: Global Effects of Impoundment in Reservoirs
•Since 1950, large scale use of artificial reservoirs redistribute water mass on a global scale
•Water held at higher elevations & eustatic response in sea level
•Global modeling: fractional effect on polar drift, and non-negligible effect on Earth rotation & low-degree gravitational coefficients (B.Chao, 1995, in Geophysical Research Letters, 22:24, p.3529-3532)
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The Limits of Science
• The always uncertain theory that will be replaced
• Knowledge and insight held by a small group of highly educated elite
• Poor transportability of science knowledge to other decision making realms
• Science culture not outcome driven
• Poor translation between many fields
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Socio-Economic Limits
• No economic tool for valuation beyond a few decades
– What is the economic valuation of the Everglades over the next 500 years?
• Self organizing into unsustainable urban settings
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Http://ffas.usda.gov/pecad/highlights/99-04/image3b.html
Hurricane mitch
casva mud flow
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Marine: Fisheries
Fisheries: Catch from the Sea has increased dramatically since 1950:
1800 --- approximately 1 MMT
1900 --- < 5 MMT
1950 --- 20 MMT
1980’s --- > 80 MMT
(Turner, et al., 1993, p. 372)
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Water: Global Estimated Water Withdrawals
•1680 --- 100 km3
•1900 --- 466 km3
•1950 --- 1,415 km3
•1980 --- 3,600 km3 (about the
volume of Lake Huron)
(Turner, et al., 1993, p. 245)
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Urbanization
•1900
- 16 Cities with >1 million people
- 25% living in cities
•1980’s
- 40 cities with >1 million people
- 50% living in cities
(Turner, et al., 1993, pp.21-22)
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Philosophical Limits
• Comprehending our role as the organism with the greatest effect on the natural system
• Limited comparative context
– Why are we here?
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Coastal Marine: After 1993Mississippi River Flood
•O2 depleted Continental Shelf bottom waters doubled in area to 18,000 km2 (larger than the state of Connecticut)
•Area covers the center of a major commercial & recreational fishery
•Seasonally depleted oxygen level continue to cover the expanded area
(Ortner and Dagg, 1995, Trans. Amer.Geophys. Union 76:10)
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Technological Limits
• Historic dependence on cheap and reliable hydrocarbons
• Long term net effects of technological options are either unknown or poorly considered at the time of introduction and diffusion
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Technological Limits (cont’d)
• Preponderance of market forces to determine technological options
– “The future of the planet is always in the hands of the low-bidden.”
• We don’t understand the “law of unintended consequences”
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Chemical Cycle: Global SulfurMobilization
•Global human-induced flow of sulfur now exceeds the natural flow
•Natural flow <120 million tons per year
•Human Induced
•1880 --- Negligible
•1950 --- <40 million tons per year
•1993 --- 150 million tons per year
(Turner, et al., 1993, p.415)
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Organizational Limits
• Fragmented and disjointed fields of inquiry
• Knowledge enterprises as minimally adaptive
• Difficulty storing and transferring know-how
– Sustainability-centric cultures vs. consumer cultures
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Personal Limits
• Focus on self interest…particularly immediate self interest
• Overwhelming dominance of the illusion of understanding
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Summary
• Serious limits beyond science need to be addressed while we continue to learn about the earth.
• Knowledge enterprises need to advance their cultures for learning and creative scholarship to address all limits.
• There is a need for intellectual leadership in an academy unable to adapt to the limits of and around its science.