The Large-Scale Climate Datasets

Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, World Climate Research Programme

Genva, Switzerland

Outline

• WCRP at a glance

• Earth/climate system partnerships

• Large scale climate data sets

• Future plans & priorities

• Summary

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), was established at the first

World Climate Conference in 1979, and it is sponsored jointly by the World

Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council for Science

(ICSU), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of

UNESCO

The major objectives of the WCRP are to:

• Determine the predictability of climate, and

• Determine the effect of human activities on climate

“…for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.”

Mission & ObjectivesMission & Objectives

A 10-year initiative of international scientific collaboration on Earth system research led by ICSU and Belmont Forum

Future Earth:Research for Global Sustainability

SMOS

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2SPOT 4, 5

EROS A1

Envisat

Aura/Aqua/Terra

Grace

QuikScat

Sage

TRMM

Toms-EP

UARSLandsat 7

SORCE

ACRIMSAT

SeaWiFS

ERBS

Orbview 2, 3

Radarsat

DMC

SAC-C

SAC-D/Aquarius

COSMO-SkyMed

© GEO Secretariat

GOSAT

Pleiades

TerraSAR-X

SeaWinds

Jason

ALOS

CBERS

International Earth Observing Systems

International Ocean Observing Systems

Temperature profiles from merchant ships

2002

ARGO installation

2003

Nit

rogen

flow

Agriculturalland use

Oce

an

acid

ity

Fres

hwat

er

cons

umpt

ion

Phos

phor

us

flow

Climate

Change

Atmospheric

aerosol load

Chemical

pollution

Ozone depletion

Biodiversity

loss ?

?

50-60

70-80

Latest data

90-00

Pre-Ind.

?

??

?

WCRP Implementation WCRP Implementation PlanPlan

• The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science – Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate– Cryosphere and Climate – Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate – Water, Energy and Climate

• Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables– Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability and Prediction– Sea-Level Variability and Change – Climate/Weather Extremes– Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics– Centennial Climate Change Projections – Seasonal Climate Prediction

• Capabilities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes – Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses – A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models – Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally

A network of several thousands scientists contributing on voluntary basis.

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5

Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP

Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5

Chemistry-Climate Model Validation

Arctic

Antarctic

Africa

Example: Major Climate Prediction & Example: Major Climate Prediction & Projection ExperimentsProjection Experiments

Improving Climate Projections: Improving Climate Projections: CMIP-5CMIP-5

Global-mean near-surface temperature anomalies in simulations with all natural and anthropogenic forcings (red line), and with the anthropogenic aerosol forcing alone (black line), in one of the CMIP5 models. (from Boucher et al, 2011)

Permissible emissions as simulated by a CMIP5 model (HadGEM2-ES) compared with observed CO2 emissions for the historical period and those projected for the RCP scenarios (OBS/IAMs) (from Friedlingstein and Jones, 2011)

5-9 March 2012 – CMIP-5 Analysis Workshop

Assessment of Assessment of Ozone Ozone

Depletion/RecoveDepletion/Recovery-2010ry-2010

The shaded areas in panels (c)-(e) came from CCMVal based on sophisticated statistical analysis of model variability and trends.

In past Assessments, estimates of model uncertainties were limited!

Scientific AssessmentsScientific Assessments

Skillful Regional Climate Information

CORDEX•12 domains with a resolution of 0.44° (approx. 50x50km²)•First Focus on Africa•High resolution ~0.11°x0.11° for Europe (by some institutions)

July to September mean precipitation for 1998-2008. Four observational (top row), accumulated 12-24 hour forecast from ERA-Interim reanalysis, the ensemble mean and individual Regional Climate Models

Courtesy of C. Jones

Intercomparison of Models-Intercomparison of Models-ObservationsObservations

Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and make available observationally-based products

Obs4MIPs

Obs4MIPs is a pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. It is closely aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM and WGNE. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. An overarching goal is to enable other data communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs.

To enhance access to re-analyses products, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is hosting a subset of the primary reanalysis data on the ESGF Portal in a similar format to the CMIP5 archive.

This portal is managed by the NASA Center for ClimateSimulation (NCCS). Participating organizations and products are;

• NASA-GSFC-GMAO/ MERRA• NOAA-NCEP/ CFSR• ECMWF/ ECMWF – Interim• JMA/ JRA – 25• NOAA ESRL - CIRES/ 20CR

Reanalysis of Observations

CMIP5 and CORDEX products are being served via a distributed archive managed by the

PCMDI-led Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

• Avoid single point failure

• Replication of heavily-used datasets

• Data can be made available readily and can be corrected locally.

Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)

Node 1

Node 2

Node 3

Node 4

Node 5

Data PortalLocal copy of heavily-used data

Model & expt. documentation

Data Users (climate model analysts worldwide)

Three Primary CMIP5 Data Portals)

PCMDI Data Portal

DKRZ Data Portal

BADC Data Portal

Three Primary Data Portals)

Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)

Earth System Grid FederationEarth System Grid Federation

CMIP5 participating groups (20+ groups; ~40 models).

2.3Pbytes of model output expected - 100 times greater than CMIP3.

Model outputs will be accessed through the Earth System Grid - data will be served by federated centers around the world and will appear to be a single PCMDI archive.

The archive is available to all users, except commercial applications..

Earth System Grid Federation: Unprecedented International Coordination

WCRP Grand Science WCRP Grand Science ChallengesChallenges

• Provision of skillful regional climate information (includes decadal and polar predictability)

• Regional Sea-Level Variability and Change

• Cryosphere response to climate change (including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon)

• The interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate sensitivity

• Past and future changes in water availability (with connections to water security and hydrological cycle)

• The prediction and attribution of extreme events

Stakeholders and User Perspective

• Urgent need for “actionable” climate information based on sound science

• The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers and users of climate information to ensure climate information is timely, accessible, easy to understand

• Urgent need for training and development of “next generation” of scientists and decision makers who pursue and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental information

1day 1week 1month 1season 1year 1 decade 1 century

Seamless Prediction of Earth System

FrontsConvec systems

Cyclones

Blocks

MJO

NAO

QBO PDO

ENSO AMO

atmosphere

ocean

region global

skin upper full

land moisture vegetation

atmospheric chemistry

Ice sheets

Courtesy of UK MetOffice

Positive NAO phase Negative NAO phase

Month – Seasons: The North Atlantic Oscillation

3-month running mean of NAO index 1950-date

1950

1967

1984

2001

Autocorrelation

Lag30d

Natural Decadal Variability

Knight et al 2005, Parker et al 2007

Model

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Observation

AtlanticMultidecadal Oscillation

June 1991 June 2001June 1995

Heat in top 100m ocean: Improvement in Skill from initialisation

Prediction Skill on 1-10 Year Time-scale

1-2y 3-4y 5-6y

Hindcast predictions of 500m heat content in Atlantic sub-polar gyre

UK JWCRP

Courtesy of UK MetOffice

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Two Major Thrusts:•Building Research Capacity in Developing Regions•Empower Next Generation of Climate Scientists

Plans and Priorities:•Engaging regional experts in climate research, modeling analysis•Promoting scientific exchange•Train the Trainers•Summer Schools•Fellowships and Scholarships•Mentoring Programs

Opportunities and Challenges;Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate change information/knowledge;

• Develop seamless regional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and decadal climate prediction/projection;

• Support development of climate information for adaptation planning, mitigation policies, and assessing risks of climate variability and change;

• Support development, intercomparing and dcoumenting large scale data sets;

• Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge; and

• Support education, training and development of next generation of climate experts and regional networks.

Summary