Derek Byerlee,

James Stevenson (ISPC) &

Nelson Villoria (Purdue U)

The Land that Feeds Us:

Growing Land Scarcity and the

Borlaug Hypothesis Revisited

Borlaug 100

Ciudad Obregon

March 25-28th,

2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Ind

ex

(1

96

0=

10

0)

Indices (1961 = 100)

Arable land per capita

2

Crop production per capita

Food prices

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

19

61

19

64

19

67

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

World cereal yields (t/ha)

more than doubled

Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT

Saved > 1 bill ha land

Borlaug, Science, 2007

WIKIPEDIA, 2014 ANGELSEN AND KAIMOWITZ, 2001

“Borlaug continually

advocated increasing crop

yields as a means to curb

deforestation. The large role

he played in both increasing

crop yields and promoting

this view has led to this

methodology being called ..

the "Borlaug hypothesis”…..

This section needs additional citations

for verification. Please help improve

this article by adding citations to

reliable sources (June 2011)

Agricultural Technologies and

Tropical Deforestation

Authors offer another view—

Increasing yields on the forest

frontier raises returns to land and

therefore incentives to expand

area (Jevon’s Paradox)

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

OECD Transitional China South Asia SE Asia Brazil sub-Saharan

Africa

Gro

wth

%/

yr)

Decomposition of Agricultural Growth, 1961-2009

TFP

Inputs

Irrigation

Land

Yield

Area

Source: Fuglie, Pers comm

BURNEY ET AL. (2010) PHELPS ET AL (2013)

Increased global yields

since 1961 have saved 1.5 x

109 ha crop area.

One third of saved land due

to cumulative investment of

$800 billion in R&D

Investigates effects of

improved maize and cassava

techs on forests in DR Congo

Conclusion: “The

relationship between

intensification and land

sparing for conservation in

tropical developing

countries is

dubious….intensification

may actually spur

agricultural expansion”

Crops

12%

Pastures

26%

Forest

31%

Other

31%

Global Land Use

(Cropland 1.5 bill ha) Since 1850 converted

to agriculture (Geist,

2001)

• 600 M ha forest

• 470 M ha savannah

But since 1990, only

30 M ha increase

cropland (2%)

2014—Push for SDG

of zero deforestation

by 2030

0 20 40

Sugararcane

Oil Palm

Rice

Maize

Soybean

M ha per year

By crop, 1990-2007 FAO: Cropland in

tropical countries

expanded 100 M ha

1990-2010

• Largely in L. America,

SE Asia and SS Africa

Satellite: 1980-2000,

tropical agriculture

expanded 75 M ha,

with 75% of that from

forests (Gibbs et al., 2010)

Low estimate High estimate

M ha M ha

Additional land for:

Crops other than biofuels 81 147

Biofuels 44 118

Plantation forestry 56 109

Grazing 0 151

Total 181 374

Land lost to:

Cities and infrastructure 48 100

Degradation 30 87

Protected areas 26 80

Total (gross) 207 454

Source: Lambin et al, 2011. PNAS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

SS Africa Latin America E. Europe &

CA

E and S Asia MENA Australia Rest of world

Mil

lio

n h

a

Potential additional area

Current area 2005

Brazil,

Argen

Sudan,

Congo, ,

Mozam

Madag,

Zambia

Russia

Australia

Based on land that is not forested

or protected and pop dens < 25/km

Total of 450 M ha (≈ demand (high))

(Wheat 75 Mha)

Source: Deininger and Byerlee (2011) based on IIASA-GAEZ

WIKI-ESTIMATES, 2000-13 SS AFRICA—18 M HA 2005-11

Food

25%

Biofuels

43%

Integrate

d

food/fuel

20%

Wood

& fibre

10%

Other

2%

Source: Schoneveld, 2014

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Other

Total: 955 agric projects, 35 M ha

(excludes high income countries)

Source: Landmatrix.org

EXPONENTIAL EXPANSION RIAU, INDONESIA, 1982-2007

Area doubled every

decade from 1970

Investment of $50+ billion

since 2001

Often high social and

environmental costs

• Much of it on previously

forested land in SE Asia

Intens.

on the

frontier

Increased

profits

Higher

returns

to land

Intens.

away

from

frontier

Increase

demand

for labor

Migration

frontier to

intensifyi

ng area

Broad-

based

intens.

Reduced

output

prices

Decrease

returns to

land

Pathways from intensification

to land use Pressure to expand

land area

Trade

18 global AEZs based on spatially-explicit datasets on yield and

land use:

Counterfactual:

A world without CGIAR

crop germplasm

improvement since

1965

Source: Stevenson, Byerlee,

Villoria et al., PNAS, 2013

Cropland Pastures Forests

Developing

countries

1.52 − 0.66 − 0.66

Developed

countries

0.87 − 0.36 − 0.51

• Overall estimate that agricultural area in 2004 would have

increased by 18 – 27 M ha mostly in developing countries

•

•[Dwarfed by effects of lower food price on human welfare]

Source: Stevenson, Byerlee,

Villoria et al., PNAS, 2013

Scenario 1: Close yield gap in oil palm by 35% in SE Asia over 25 yrs

Note; Does not include value of biodiversity

Source: Villoria, Byerlee & Stevenson., 2013

SE Asia

Land use and emissions SE Asia; Scenario 1

Global

Global R&D

Investments

(S2)

Investments

R&D

In Africa and

Latin Am. only

(S3)

Source: Lobell et al, 2013

Conclusion: Investing in R&D for broad adaptation to

CC is a cost effective way to save forests and mitigate

climate change.

• Still projects 250 Mha area increase by 2030

with perfect adaptation.

Scenarios

S1.No adaptation

S2. R&D to adapt

(yields unaffected by CC)

S3. Adaptation only in

LA and Africa

95% confidence

intervals

New market

opportunities through

trade

Oil palm in SE Asia

Little technical change after

1980

• Soybean in Latin

America

Markets + Technology 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Soybean imports (Mt)

China

World

China

World

Sustainable

intensification

through higher input

efficiency and

improved NRM

• Reduce agro-chemical

externalities

• See Fischer, Byerlee &

Edmeades (2014),

Chapter 8

Landscape

approaches that

preserve mosaics

• Debate on land

sparing

(specialization) vs

land sharing (bio-

diverse mosaics)

Broadly-based investment in crop R&D one of the

best ways to save forests globally (as Borlaug

claimed)

Net global saving in land from intensification

often co-exists with forests losses at local level

Improved governance of forests critical to

provide incentives to intensify vs expand area

Regulation, incentives (private certification, REDD)

Brazil vs Indonesia, 2005-2012

SDG of zero deforestation in 2030 requires

accelerated efforts on yields plus governance

References

Stevenson, Villoria, Byerlee, PNAS 110: 8363-68, 2013

Villoria, Golub, Byerlee & Stevenson, Am. J. Ag. Econ,

95:1308-13

Villoria, Byerlee & Stevenson, App. Econ. Pers &

Policies (in press)

Byerlee, Villoria and Stevenson, Global Food Security

(in review)

Additional information

dbyerlee@gmail.com