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29-09-2011
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September 28th, 2011INSG, Statistics CommitteeLisbon, Portugal
September 28th, 2011INSG, Statistics CommitteeLisbon, Portugal
The Japanese Stainless Steel IndustryThe Japanese Stainless Steel Industry
Mitsui owns approximately 44,000 hectares of forest area in 73 locations across Japan. We are committed to the preservation of this invaluable natural resource through the ownership of forests.
Katsuhito (Kazu) MiyajimaGeneral Manager, Nickel DepartmentNew Metals Division,Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
Katsuhito (Kazu) MiyajimaGeneral Manager, Nickel DepartmentNew Metals Division,Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. in Nickel Business
• Involved in nickel business for long time
• Handles nickel trading volume of approx. 80,000 Ni MT in JFY2011 (through Domestic in Japan Export from Japan Import to Japan) (through Domestic in Japan, Export from Japan, Import to Japan) for Nickel Ore, FeNi, Nickel Metal (Cathode, Briquette, Pellet), Nickel Oxide Sinter, Nickel Powder, Nickel Chemical Products ;
Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), Vale, Eramet, BHPB, Impala, Jinchuan, Xstrata, Votorantim, Antam, Empress
• Investments with equity share;
- Hyuga, Japan (FeNi) : 15% since 1961 (SMM 60% NSSC 25%)
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- Coral Bay, Philippine (MS) : 18% (SMM 54% Sojitz 18% Rio Tuba 10%)- Taganito, Philippine (MS) : 15% (SMM 62.5% NAC 22.5%)- Goro, New Caledonia (NOS) : 10% (Vale 74% SMM 11% NC Govt. 5%)- Vale : 5%, through Valepar
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Current Situation (1)
300 Series Ratio with Stainless Production and LME Nickel Price
68.5% 68.0% 67.6%69.4%
3,698 3,816 3,8803,422
3,7273,6213,3573,497 3,440 3,567
2,60265.0%
70.0%
75.0%
3,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
200 Series Prouction (Right) 300 Series Production (Right)400 Series Production (Right) 300 Series Ratio (Left)
(300 series ratio, %) (Production, kM T)
Ni Series Production by Shape Cr Series Production by Shape
1,600 250 Strip
64.8%
62.0%63.1%
53.0%
58.7%52.6%51.6%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201005001,0001,5002,0002,500,
LME NiPrice Ave
(Strip, kMT) (Others, kMT)1,600 250 Strip
(Others, kMT)(Strip, kMT)
3.92 $/lb 2.70 $/lb 3.07 $/lb 4.37 $/lb 6.27 $/lb 6.69 $/lb 11.00 $/lb 16.89 $/lb 9.58 $/lb 6.67 $/lb 9.89 $/lb
8,642 $/MT 5,952 $/MT 6,768 $/MT 9,634 $/MT 13,823 $/MT 14,749 $/MT 24,251 $/MT 37,236 $/MT 21,120 $/MT 14,705 $/MT 21,804 $/MT
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Source : Mitsui’s Estimate
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50
100
150
200
p
Sheetsand PlatesWire Rods
Rounds forTubesFlat
Bar
Shapes 0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50
100
150
200
p
Sheetsand PlatesWire Rods
Rounds forTubesFlat
Bar
Shapes
Current Situation (2)Japanese Stainless Export and Import Balance by Shape (Estimated)
Strip Bar and Shapes Flat Bars Plates and Sheets Wire Rod Tubes Rounds Total
Production (2009)①
1,874,000 128,000 20,800 178,700 180,500 220,000 2,602,000
Export (2009)②
700,000 35,100 8,800 86,800 74,500 159,700 1,064,800
Import (2009)③
88,100 7,500 1,900 12,500 26,400 5,400 141,700
ApparentConsumption①-②+③
1,262,100 100,400 13,900 104,400 132,400 65,700 1,678,900
Export Ratio②÷①
37% 27% 42% 49% 41% 73% 41%
South KoreaChi Th il d
ChinaH K
China USAChi
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Source : Trade Statistics of Japan, Mitsui’s Estimate
Export toChina Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
Thailand China
Thailand China South Korea
Hong Kong Taiwan Thailand Italy
Taiwan South Korea Malaysia
China Norway Thailand UK
Import from South Korea Taiwan China
South Korea Taiwan Spain
South Korea Taiwan
South Korea Sweden China
South Korea China Taiwan
China South Korea
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Strategy of Stainless MillsStrategy of Major Japanese Stainless Mills
AICHII%
Others1%
Sanyo2%
Capacity1,200KMT
Growth Strategy304 strip → Ni free strip called FW 2(16Cr、0.3Sn、Low C・N)Duplex(23Cr, 5Ni, 3Mo, 0.15N) / High Nickel contained Plate or Wire Rods.
(Stainless division spun off from NSC and SMI into NSSC in 2003)
Capacity1,000kMT
Growth StrategyFocused on Cr series stainless instead of Ni series. Cr series stainless is mainly for Automobile industry.
Capacity700kMT
Growth StrategyInvested in Acerinox (Spain) by 15%. Bahru Stainless (J/V with Acerinox) in Malaysia plans to expand its rolling capacity up to 400kMT in 2013, aiming to have 1 mil MT melting facility in the future.
Production Share(2010)
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NSSC29%
NYK10%
Nisshin18%
SMI5%
2%
DAIDO5%
JFE19%
NMI9% 3,422kM T
(C apa:4,110kM T)
NIPPON METAL INDUSTRY
Capacity400kMT
Growth Strategy304 strip → D series stainless(Ni2.5-4.5%, Cr17.5%, Mn6%, Cu2.5%)
Capacity350kMT
Growth StrategyIncreasing high nickel alloy sales.
Source : Mitsui’s Estimate
Current Alliance
Current Alliance among Japanese Stainless Mills
Nisshin SteelNSC(80%)
1,200KMT
Share(9.17%)NSSC
1,100kMT(700k+400k)
Alliance
SMI(20%)
Share(1.03%)
Share(5.48%)
Alliance
Nisshin can order NMI to roll Hot Rolled Coilto optimize production line.
To optimize mother coil in tight situation.NSSC → Nisshin Cr Series StainlessNisshin → NSSC Ni Series Stainless. NIPPON METAL INDUSTRY
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(1,000k+350k)Nippon Yakin KogyoJFE Steel
Alliance
1,350kMT
JFE(NYK) only produce Cr(Ni) series Stainelss, sowhen Ni(Cr) order comes, they order NYK(JFE)each other.
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Nickel Demand in Japan
Nickel Demand in Japan
250 250Nickel PowderNickel Oxide Sinter/TonimetNickel MetalFeNi
(kMT, Ni basis) (kMT, Ni basis)
94
58
75
90 8885
8584
76 85
27
26
28
28 3029
2726
24
12
19
11
8
10
8 109
99
8
5
6
187
145
173
193199
186194
183
161
105
161
100
150
200
100
150
200
FeNi
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Source :Trade Statistics of Japan, Mitsui’s Estimate
55 53 60 67 71 63 73 6453
3853
50
0
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50
Scrap Price Trend (vs. LME Nickel Price)
Scrap Price Trend (vs. LME Nickel Price)Japanese Stainless Scrap has price competitiveness, in stable manner
120% 120%Japanese Yearly Average Chinese Stainless Scrap
J St i l S NPI i
80%
90%
100%
110%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Japanese Stainless Scrap NPI price
90%87%
80% 80%
93% 94%
85%
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Source : Mitsui’s Estimate
50%
60%
70%
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
50%
60%
70%
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Thank you for your attention!
For contact:
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Nickels Department, Metals Division,
Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
E-mail: [email protected]