the islamic state and information warfare - sarca...
TRANSCRIPT
The Islamic State &
the Future of War
Dr Sebastian GorkaMajor General Horner Distinguished Chair of Military Theory
MARINE CORPS UNIVERSITY
Chairman
THREAT KNOWLEDGE GROUP
SARCA
Washington 10 Oct 2015
Future War?
Irregular War is War
Gorka and Kilcullen: “An Actor-Centric Theory of War,”
Joint Forces Quarterly, No. 60, 2011
- It is a fully-fledged TRANSNATIONAL insurgency not
just a terrorist group like AQ
- It is the richest non-state threat group in
modern history
- It has recruited 22,000+ foreign fighters
in just months
- It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence
Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda
How is ISIS / IS Doing this?
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- It is a fully-fledged TRANSNATIONAL insurgency not
just a terrorist group like AQ
- It is the richest non-state threat group in
modern history
- It has recruited 22,000+ foreign fighters
in just months
- It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence
Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda
How is ISIS / IS Doing this?
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi: a New Kind of Threat Commander
Al Shaam:The Power of a Name
What Does Abu ISIS Really Want?
ISIS’s New Caliphate
IW the Right Way: AQ
versus the Islamic State
Focoist Insurgency(Che Guevara, Top-down)
versus
Maoist Insurgency(Ground up, “People’s War”)
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IS & Religious Genocide
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How Much Religion Matters
The Ideological
Drivers of ISIS Strategy
Jihad as a Global Brand.
All believers must fight.
Abdullah AZZAM
War’s Objective is God’s
Sovereignty on Earth.
Terror is the best weapon in war
Brigadier S.K. Malik
The World as Heretical, to be
cleansed forcibly by Holy War.
Sayyed QUTB
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The ISIS Playbook:
- the “anti-FM 3-24”
Abu Bakr Naji’s Management of
Savagery
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The ISIS / Naji Plan
PHASE 1: “Vexation”
Distract and exhaust the infidel enemy and his allies. Emphasis on smaller
dramatic operations (not 9/11s) to prepare fighting units for Phase 2
PHASE 2: “Spread Savagery”
Move to coordinated unconventional warfare to “dislodge” nations from local
control
PHASE 3: “Administer Savagery / Consolidate / Expand”
- Stabilize held areas
- Unite population as fighting community
- Implement sharia and govern so establishing “base-state” used to attack and
expand into neighboring nations. This is a new type of Hybrid Caliphate.
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The ISIS Threat to CONUS
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Number of U.S. Arrests
ISIS Arrests in US as of
June 2015
30% of arrests so far have been ISIS supporters who
believed they could best serve the cause by carrying
out attacks within the United States
The Threat is REALBetween March 2014 and August 2015, 75
Americans have been arrested or charged for
some connection to ISIS (including 6 unnamed
minors), whether traveling to fight, recruiting,
fundraising or planning to travel.
That is a 200% increase of ISIS recruits
over Al Qaeda recruits over a comparable
period
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OPEN SOURCE IS KEY
So What?1. ISIS has been far more successful that AQSL for
identifiable reasons:
- its correct understanding of Irregular Warfare
- the effective exploitation of its highly resonant ideology (ETD)
2. The Enemy is motivated by a religious narrative
3. Self-Censoring the above truths endangers our warfighters
and will prolong the war.
4. Use OPEN SOURCE to understand and defeat the Enemy
GOING DEEPER
http://www.scribd.com/doc/226130324/Understanding-
the-Enemy-by-Dr-Sebastian-L-Gorka
Email: [email protected]: @SebGorka
RELEVANT SITES:
www.TheGorkaBriefing.com
www.ThreatKnowledge.org
www.CouncilOnGlobalSecurity.org