the investment case for sustainable ammonia synthesis ... · the investment case for sustainable...
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TheInvestmentCaseforSustainableAmmoniaSynthesisTechnologies
TrevorBrown13thAnnualNH3FuelConference
September20,2016
TrevorBrown:independentammoniaindustryanalyst• December2011:begantrackingglobalammoniacapacity&expansions• June2013:publishedonlinedatasetforNorthAmerica• November2013:launchedwebsiteAmmoniaIndustry.com• June2016:passedfinalexamsinCharteredFinancialAnalystprogram
Rawdataforalltables/chartsavailablefromhPps://ammoniaindustry.com
Parts1,17,and42of±99
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TheInvestmentCase• Part1:History
– InnovaVons,#1to#5• Part17:CurrentTechnologyDeployment
– GrowthDrivers– Problems– Recentindustrytrends
• PlantSize• FeedstockMix
• Part42:FutureTechnologyDeployment– InnovaVons,#1to#5
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HISTORY:InnovaVon#1Haber-BoschProcess
• Haber-Bosch:– 1909:LaboratorydemonstraVon:125ml/hour– 1913:IndustrialdemonstraVon:20tonnes/day– 1920:Industrialdeployment:300,000tonnes/year
• “Bellwether”inorganicchemistry– FritzHaber
• High-pressure,hightemperatureindustrialprocesses– CarlBosch/BASF
• Catalystdevelopment– AlwinMiPasch:systemaVcopVmizaVon:~20,000individualaPempts/iteraVons
• OsmiumàUraniumàIronàdecadeslater(KBR),Ruthenium
3TrevorBrown:hPps://ammoniaindustry.com“TheInvestmentCaseForSustainableAmmoniaSynthesisTechnologies,”NH3FuelConference,September20,2016
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HISTORY:TechnologyPathways(1918)
SOURCE:hPps://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uiug.30112019245163;view=1up;seq=7
InorganicAmmonia1. Mined:
ChileanSaltpeter:NaNO32. Byproduct:
SteelproducVon/cokeovens:(NH4)2SO4
~46%TotalAmmoniaSource
3.Synthesized:CyanamidProcess:CaCN2
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HISTORY:InorganicNitrogen(1920)
SOURCE:hPps://books.google.com/books/about/ProducVon_of_atmospheric_nitrogen.html?id=-NwuAAAAMAAJ
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HISTORY:AtmosphericNitrogen(1920)
SOURCE:hPps://books.google.com/books/about/ProducVon_of_atmospheric_nitrogen.html?id=-NwuAAAAMAAJ
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HISTORY:InnovaVon#2Feedstocks
• “Crazy”–theadopVonofnaturalgasfeedstockintheUS:1940– “Beforethewar,whenammoniawasmadechieflyfromcoal,theplantswerebuiltincoalproducingareas,generally
nearthecokeovens.SomeindustrialchemistsandOrdnanceofficers,parVcularlyMaj.JohnP.Harris,wereconvincedthatinVmeofwarenoughammoniaforthemassproducVonofexplosivesandsmokelesspowdercouldneverbeproducedfromcoal.Thepre-1940OrdnanceplansthereforecalledfortheproducVonofammoniafromnaturalgasandthelocaVonofnewammoniaplantsintheSouthwestratherthaninthePennsylvania-WestVirginia-Kentuckycoalregion.‘PeopletoldmeIwascrazywhenIproposedtheidea,’Harrisdeclared,‘butitsucceededandtodayalltheammoniaproducersusenaturalgas.’”hPp://history.army.mil/html/books/010/10-10/CMH_Pub_10-10.pdf
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HISTORY:TechnologyPathways(1935)
SOURCE:hPps://books.google.com/books?id=v9unAAAAIAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false
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• Technologymix:• Oneprocess• ManypracVVoners/IPs
• Feedstockmix:• TransiVonàdiversificaVon
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HISTORY:InnovaVon#3AirSeparaVonTechnologies
• Because:Ammonia=AnchorCustomerfor100yearsofR&DInvestment
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SOURCE:EricMorgan,U.Mass-Amherst,“Techno-EconomicFeasibilityStudyofAmmoniaPlantsPoweredbyOffshoreWind”hPp://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?arVcle=1704&context=open_access_dissertaVonsTrevorBrown:hPps://ammoniaindustry.com“TheInvestmentCaseForSustainableAmmoniaSynthesisTechnologies,”NH3FuelConference,September20,2016
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HISTORY:InnovaVon#4CarbonCapture…&SequestraVon• CarbonCapture…
Because:Ammonia+Urea=colocaVonofsupply+demand– GirbotolProcess/MEA(monoethanolamine:RNH2)– Benfield/HotPot(hotpotassiumcarbonate)/BenfieldLoHeat– Selexol(solvent=DMPEG)/RecVsol(solvent=methanol)– aMDEA(BASF)
• “Itallstartedwithammonia.BASFwantedtoreducethecostofproducingammonia.Intheearly1970s,BASFwasthereforeexploringmethodsforseparaVngcarbondioxide(CO2)moreefficientlyfromthesyntheVcgasusedintheproducVonprocess.”hPp://www.intermediates.basf.com/chemicals/topstory/amdea
• ...andSequestra@on– KochIndustries:Enid,OK:1982:0.7milliontonnes/year(Benfield)– DakotaGas:Beulah,ND:2000:80%of3milliontonnes/year(RecVsol)
• NOTE:ammoniaproducVonsecondarytosyngasproducVon– CVRPartners:Coffeyville,OK:2013,1milliontonnes/year(Selexol)– Agrium:Redwater,AB:2017,0.3-0.6milliontonnes/year(Benfield)
• NOTE:CurrentacVon:Yara,Norway:100%NaVonalCarbonCapture&SequestraVonby2022hPps://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/departementene/oed/pdf/summary.pdf
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HISTORY:InnovaVon#5DeploymentatMassiveScale
• DemonstraVonofmassivetechnologydeployment,infrastructureinvestment• akaTheGreenRevoluVon
China,AmmoniaCapacity:(millionmetrictonsN)• 1960:0.36• 1970:4.98• 1980:12.28• 1990:17.5• 2000:27.5• 2010:40Roughly+1milliontonsammoniaeveryyearfor50years
SOURCE:HarryVroomen,TFI“TheHistoryofAmmoniato2012”:hPp://www.firt.org/sites/default/files/2Vroomen.pdf
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TODAY:“Cheap”GasàCapacityExpansion• 2013:EPCcontractorsstopgivingfixed-price
construcVoncontracts(laborcosts).• 2015:Nitrogenpricesplummet,jeopardizing
projectfinancing.Projectsremainonhold.• Mostprojectsinfinancinglimbo:start-uppushed
backfrom2017/18to2019/2020.• 2016:EPCcontractorsstartgivingfixed-price
agreementsagain(eg:FaVma,Cronus).• DespitecancellaVons,acVvepipelinesVll
expanding.
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
July2014:ThePipeline=16.7milliontons
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
June2015:ThePipeline=18.3milliontons
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
June2016:ThePipeline=20.5milliontons
TrevorBrown:hPps://ammoniaindustry.com“TheInvestmentCaseForSustainableAmmoniaSynthesisTechnologies,”NH3FuelConference,September20,2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
UNLIKELY 222,238 322,345 322,345 3,756,294 4,556,294 5,541,794
POSSIBLE 467,595 1,562,595 7,208,534 8,084,534 8,084,534 8,084,534
LIKELY 4,448,506 5,616,194 5,616,194 5,616,194 5,616,194 5,616,194 5,616,194
DONE 297,078 932,858 997,426 1,193,669 1,706,909 1,706,909 1,706,909 1,706,909 1,706,909 1,706,909 1,706,909
EXISTING 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962 18,009,962
EXISTING
DONE
LIKELY
POSSIBLE
UNLIKELY
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
AmmoniainNorthAmerica:CapacityProjecHon,June2016Metrictonsofammoniaperyear,cumulaLvenewcapacity.
Dataasof06/07/2016.Source:hSps://ammoniaindustry.com
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TODAY:QuesVonableIndustryAbility
• Engineering,Procurement,ConstrucVonperformance:– ActualBuilds:Schedules&Budgetswayofftarget– RiskstoTechnologyTransfer:fromLaboratoryScaletoIndustrialDeployment
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TODAY:CapitalIntensity
• CapExpermetrictonAmmonia…bewareapples:orangescomparisons
• $1,000/tonruleofthumbsVllvalid
• Yara/BASF@Freeport:25%CapExreducVonbyusingH2Noneedforreformers/frontend
• LawsuitsoverconstrucVoncosts:– Greeneville,TN– ElDorado,AR– Wever,IA
• Note:Spiritwood,NDcancelled
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TODAY:DiversificaVonBusinessModels&Feedstocks
• 2016NewUSAmmoniaCapacity:6plants,+4.6milliontonsAverageSize:650,000metrictons/yearMaxSize:1,300,000 CFIndustries,D’ville,LAMin:67,000mtpy USNitrogen,Greeneville,TN
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• 2017-18NewUSAmmoniaCapacity:9plants,+3.3milliontonsAverageSize:370,000metrictons/yearMax:803,000 Yara/BASF,Freeport,TXMin:33,500 ForVgen,Geneva,NE
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FUTURE:AmmoniaInnovaVon#1+/-Haber-Bosch
• Avoidance– NutrientAddiVon:Covercrops/OrganicSystems/BioferVlizer(biosolids)– Biomimicry:GMO(legumetraitsincommoditycrops)
• Efficiency– NutrientRetenVon:NoTill/IrrigaVonSystems– PrecisionAg(bewareJevonsParadox)– FoodWasteReducVon/DietChanges/SyntheVcMeat– NutrientLossRemediaVon
• FeedstockDiversificaVon– CarbonRecycling:Biomass,Biogas,Waste(beware:GDPGrowthv.CircularEconomy)– Low/Zero-CarbonH2
• TechnologyDiversificaVon– IncrementalInnovaVon,Haber-Bosch:
• Efficiency:catalysts,temperature,pressure• OperaVons:intermiPency
– RadicalInnovaVon:SolidState/LiquidStateElectrochemicalprocesses,etc
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InnovaVonv.InvenVon:eg:WastePlasVcFeedstock
• ERS:Antwerp,Belgium– Investment:SaudiArabia
Technology:China– Announced:2015
CapEx:€3.7billion(>$4billion)– Feedstock:3.485milliontonnes/year– Ammonia:645,500tonnes/yearNET
(4,500tonnes/dayGROSS)– Urea:1,231,500tonnes/year
• NOTE!ShowaDenko:Ogimachi,Kawasaki– ProducingammoniafromplasVcsince2003– CapEx:¥7.4billion(>$73million)– Ammonia:175tonnes/day
• 2015=2x2003CapExperton,at10xscale– Whatefficiencyofscale?
17
Waste to Chemicals in Antwerp
Energy'Recovery'Systems'Company'plans)to)build)a)Waste'to'Chemicals'(WtC)'
plant'in)the)Antwerp'port,)changing)on)a)yearly)basis)3.485.000)tons)of)
industrial,'non@recyclable'waste'into)645.500)tons)of)green'ammonia'and)
1.231.500)tons)of)green'urea.)Ammonia)is)used)as)base)chemical)in)the)Antwerp)
chemical)cluster)and)urea)is)a)sustainable)fer'lizer.)ERS)and)the)port)authori'es)
are)currently)nego'a'ng)the)concession)of)150)ha)at)the)Delwaidedock.))
Waste to Chemicals
waste)
Thermoselect©)
gasifica'on)
ammonia)
urea)
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FUTURE:AmmoniaInnovaVon#2CarbonReducVon:FerVlizer
• Ammoniaproduc@oncauses1%ofglobalGHGemissions(2012data):– 170millionmetrictonsammoniaproduced– 2.867tonsCO2/tonammonia(globalaverage)
• USindustryaverage:2.129tonsCO2/tonammonia• Chinaindustryaverage:4.429tonsCO2/tonammonia
NOTE:improving!Closed24.2milliontonscapacityinlast3years,mainlycoal.– 33,843millionmetrictonsCO2emissionsà1.44%globalCO2emissions– 47,599millionmetrictonsGHGemissionsà1.024%globalGHGemissions– NOTE:refersONLYtofossilcarboninput,NOTlife-cyclecarbonSee:hPps://ammoniaindustry.com/ammonia-producVon-causes-1-percent-of-total-global-ghg-emissions/
• 1%isabignumber
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FUTURE:AmmoniaInnovaVon#3CarbonReducVon:Energy
• SustainableAmmoniaSynthesisTechnologies=“deboMlenecking”opportunityforglobaltransi@ontolowcarboneconomy
• OncedecoupledfromfossilextracVon,potenValGHGimpactfarexceeds1%• MulVpleBusinessModels:
– AnchorCustomer(technologydemand)• CommercializaVonoflargescalerenewableH2technologies/capturedcarbon
– NewProducts• LiquidFuel• EnergyDistribuVon• EnergyStorage• Resilience/RiskMiVgaVon/DiversificaVon/RenewableEnergyMarketPenetraVon• MulVple/FlexibleRevenueStreams
– NewByproducts• Water,FerVlizer,O2,CO2
– NewCustomers&NewMarkets
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FUTURE:AmmoniaInnovaVon#4CarbonReducVon:Biosphere
• TradiVonalAmmonia-Ureacarbon“cycle”:
• CCSProposedPathway:“UreaYieldBoosVng”– Note:nonsensecarbonaccounVng– See:“UreaProducVonisNotCarbonSequestraVon”hPps://ammoniaindustry.com/urea…not-sequestraVon/
• BECCSTechnologyPathway:
“CarbonNegaVveUrea”– Note:C:HraVohigherinbiomass– ThusgreatercapturepotenVal:carbonharvesVng– RequirescommercializedsequestraVontechnology
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CO2toair
UreaAmmonia+CO2
FossilCXHX CO2toair
UreaAmmonia+CO2
UreaAmmonia+CO2
CO2toair
FossilCXHX CO2toair
BiomassCXHX
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FUTURE:AmmoniaInnovaVon#5DeploymentatMassiveScale
• BillMcKibben,NewRepublic,August2016hPps://newrepublic.com/arVcle/135684/declare-war-climate-change-mobilize-wwii
– “EvenifeverynaVonintheworldcomplieswiththeParisAgreement,theworldwillheatupbyasmuchas3.5degreesCelsiusby2100–notthe1.5to2degreespromised.”
– MarkZ.Jacobson,Civil&EnvironmentalEngineering,StanfordUniversity• Demonstrateshowall50USStatescouldachieve100%renewableenergy.
Levelofdetail:eg,Alabama:59.7km2residenValroo�opsunshadedbytreesandpointedintherightdirecVonforsolarpanels.
• Similar“naVonalblueprints”for139countries.USdata:hPp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/ArVcles/I/USStatesWWS.pdf&Globaldata:hPp://www.scienVficamerican.com/arVcle/139-countries-could-get-all-of-their-power-from-renewable-sources1/
– USDeploymentScale:RequiredRenewablePowerGeneraVon• 6,448GWtotalby2050.Atcurrentpace(16GWin2015),wouldtake405years.• SolarCity’s“GigaFactory”(manufacturing1GWsolarpanelsperyear)
35YearRequirementà295GigaFactoriesacrossUS,6perState.SameforWind.– GlobalInvestmentScale:
• Currentglobalinvestmentinfossilfuelinfrastructure:$20trillioninstalled• Thus:replacementinfrastructureinvestments,2016to2050:$570billionperyear
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–WorkinProgress–PleasesendcorrecVons/addiVons
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TrevorBrown
[email protected]://ammoniaindustry.com