The Internet on Democratization

Samantha AndersonMin Woong ChoiGriffin O. Cohen

The Effect Of

Prof. James Vreeland 03 Dec 2013

Research Question

Internet

Democratization

Arab Spring (2011)

Hypothesis

•Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization

Why?

–The Internet facilitates communications and the share ofinformation, both domestically and internationally •Thus, gives the “people” more leverage

increase• We also predict the following:

• Democracies should both have more proportional Internet users and Internet growth

• In the years prior to democratization, countries should see a “build-up” effect of Internet growth, increasing each year prior to democratization

DebatePrevious studies:

-Cross section of data (Kedzie 1997) -Pooled, static data-Limited number of years (Best & Wade 2009)

-Endogeneity Debate:- Does regime impact Internet? - Helen Milner (2005)- Democracies undoubtedly have more Internet users

than autocracies

Argument

Democratization Likelihoodi,t

(Political State of Countryi,t) x [(Internet Growthi,t-2) + (Internet Growthi,t-1) + (Internet Growthi,t)]

=

Democratization1995 – 2008: data from “Extreme Bounds of Democracy” (2013), 25 Total

Niger

Mexico

Case Studies

China

Middle East

Tunisia

Mexico Niger

Methodology• Data from 1995-2008• 3,013 country-year observations• 190 countries • 25 countries transition from autocracy to

democracy

New Variables- Internet Growth per year (difference [logged], percent)- Regime Changes- Regime Transition Lagged Effect

- 3 years before democratization

Statistical Tests:- Correlation- Regression (logistic, random effects, fixed effects, dynamic)- Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and descriptive data)- Lagged effect analysis - Descriptive Data (Internet era against counterfactual era)

Variables• Independent: Internet growth (difference,

logged) • Dependent: Regime (democracy or autocracy)• Control Variables:

– GDP (per Capita, percentage growth)– Urban Population– Oil Net Exports– Muslim Population (in 1980)– Freedom of Speech– Social Globalization– Political Globalization

Correlations

Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy

Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy (logged)

LinearFractional

Polynomial

The Survival of Democracy• Dynamic Tests: Logistic, Conditional Fixed-Effects

Logistic, Regression • GDP Annual Growth: Significant across all tests• Internet variables, GDP per Capita (2005 US$):

Not Significant

• Implications: Przeworski et al. (2000) found that GDP per Capita would predict survival of democracy, but their study stopped at 1990

• Thus, perhaps a shift has occurred and regimes must “perform” well as people have more leverage in today’s world

Democracy is More Likely in Countries with High Internet Growth

• Pooled, static tests: Random Effects, Fixed Effects

• Internet growth (percentage growth, difference logged): Significant across all tests

• Internet users per 100 persons: Not significant

Descriptive Data

DictatorshipDemocracy

Internet Users by Regime

Dictatorship

Democracy

Internet Users Growth by Regime

Democratization

• Dynamic Tests: Logistic and Random Effects• Internet Users Percentage Growth: Not

Significant• GDP (per Capita, annual growth): Not Significant • Internet Users Difference, logged: Significant across

all models

• Implication: The number of people with access to the Internet matters, not the percentage growth

“Build-Up” Effect

“Build-Up” Effect

“Build-Up” Effect: Implications

• Democratization is a process—it does not occur overnight

• Endogeneity debate: Increased Internet prior to democratization suggests the Internet influences regime

Analysis by Era

Implications

PeopleGovernment

Huntington’s Wave Theory

19th century to 1942

World War II to 1960s 1970s to 1990s

New Global Divide?

• Fourth Wave: Beginning with Arab Spring in 2011

• Possible pullback? – Expect increase of democracy but also a

strengthening of autocracies• Autocracies may tighten restrictions• Dictator’s Dilemna

Questions?