the international relations review - winter 2012

Exclusive Interview: Venezuelan Opposition Leader Henrique Capriles and His Plan for the Nation

Greece’s Financial Crisis and its Implications for the International Community

Building the Next Financial Bubble: A Look into the Real Estate

Market in China

Winter 2012 1

GRACIELA MARIÑO, COM ’15

Index

3

7 The Power of Investment

powerful forces in an attempt to control the

9China’s PRC Core Residential Real Estate Market

as wealthy families invest in the material wealth of houses rather than the unknown

17

could hypothetically affect the European continent

5

Henrique Capriles: A Contender’s VisionIn this exclusive feature, IRR sta! writer Graciela Mariño interviewed Henrique Capriles Radonski, who commented on his campaign goals and the future he envisions for Venezuela. Page 12

19

23

recently announced

the mainstream media characterized the union

attempt to recover after

12Radonski was chosen as the opposition’s unity candidate to face Chavez on the

“Primero Justicia” leader and current

has killed thousands of his own citizens who have

Winter 2012 3

A bill proposing that ‘serial homosexuals,’ minors, HIV-positive or disabled people engaging in “homoexual behavior” be punishable by death continues to be

Same-sex relationships are

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

Meshaal to create an interim unity

Palestine

During a protest against the

Guinea

to retaliate against South Sudanese rebels

the attack in the disputed, oil-rich Jau area

Sudanese and South Sudanese governments

South Sudan became independent

Falklands War approaches, Argentina

is still trying to hold the islands as a

Falkland Islands

putting the Central Intelligence Agency

Investigation in January, as they discussed

hacking attacks against many international

their latest budget cuts, but demanded to

Greece

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today.

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Mills told the court in December

Italy

Winter 20124

elections, to protest alleged government

percent voting rate, the election results raised suspicions about Prime Minister

led people to believe the party presented

1

national corruption has called into question

democratic action is unlikely to happen, as the president can use institutional measures

For many, this is an inherent

authoritarian regimes, democracy cannot

3

qualities that may hinder the development

little economic development, a large polity, heterogeneity, political culture, religious

4

For many international relations

system soon “backslid” into autocracy, a

corruption that goes unchecked

history, constitutional structure and

resource availability cannot be altered, and

International relations theory also

is taking action to secure the democratic

role, besides the agreement that they play

democratic change in government is most

PHOTO CREDIT: SOFIYA MAHDI, CAS ’14Partial view of the Kremlin in Moscow. Considered a World Heritage Site by UNESCO since 1990, the Kremlin became a landmark of Russian strength and autocracy after the 1917 Revolution when the government was transferred from St. Petersburg to the Kremlin in Moscow.

PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’14Europe’s highest-reaching railway system in Switzerland travels up to 3,454 meters above sea level, taking passengers to the Jungfrau ski region. People can board the train from Interlaken, Grindelwald and Wengen.

Winter 2012

many international relations theorists argue that the population is not even capable

democracy to develop there must be

11

should be an immediate and sharp break

political polarization among citizens

democracy is supposed to be—they are not

party, but against everything the party

Despite all reason and rationality

becoming politically active in opposition

publicly challenging Putin, mocking

13can lead to popular discontent, indicating

overcome its past, encouraging the people to bring about political participation the

theory is not so deterministic, especially in

14 It

that social and economic development go

in developing nations gain access to these opportunities, social progress inevitably

global economic crisis, this has not

A crucial resource has been hiding

It is about time that the value

sector acts as the investor and the population

the more developed a nation is, the smaller

less developed a nation is, the greater the

the return on investment than investing in

Similarly, an investment in a

not earn nearly as much revenue as an

the previously impossible transportation

The Power of InvestmentPHOTO CREDIT: ALESSANDRA HARTKOPF, CAS ’12

“Russia’s history does not have to

determine its future. The outbreak of

protests in Russia proves that perhaps

theory should not be so deterministic.”

All citations for articles in the winter 2012 issue of the International Relations Review can be found online. Visit the Boston University International Affairs Association website at buiaa.org/ir-review/ to access the bibliographical information.

PHOTO CREDIT: SOFIYA MAHDI, CAS ’14 St. Basil Cathedral in Moscow. As a symbol of native history and culture for the Russian public, this cathedral and other monuments in Moscow stand in sharp contrast with the new wave of political uncertainty that surrounds the current administration.

Winter 2012

PHOTO CREDIT: AMRITA SINGH, CAS ’15 Above: children in Ghana play outside of their school. Below: young girl walks down path carrying materials. One of the most important resources a country can use for its development is human capital. By investing in sectors such as education, Ghana is getting ahead in the race toward economic development.

As the housing market declines,

in emerging markets due to the crucial link

1 Shanghai’s real estate market is

China recently experienced a paradigm

threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s

social instability, the Chinese government

China’s PRC Core Residential Real Estate Market

PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13 View of the coastal Chinese megacity of Shanghai, one of the fastest growing metropolises in the last two decades and the most populous city in the world.

bailout culture, an underlying issue that

business-savvy Chinese to place their

appreciation value and serves as a hedge

are transacted in cash, given China’s high

government to enact strict polices to curb

markets increases pressure on the

maintaining social order than on economic

Maintaining social order is an

3

prices surpassing average income, there is a

For example, the average price per square

avoiding a crash, so the upper class does

One solution is to increase supply

regulating supply and buying habits in the

rural uprisings, but the “nail house” concept

4

materialistic areas, such as Shanghai,

developing nations, and the result has been a six-percent increase in enrollment in

skills to create the tools necessary to escape

has doubled since its independence in

establish a monumental garment industry

End of Poverty describes this investment as the

investment lies in the Women’s Mango

paid to the producer has also increased

“The world will rise out

of poverty by investing in

people.”

that—goals;; they are numbers and nongovernmental—to come together and address problems, brainstorm solutions,

Winter 2012 11

PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13Street views of Shanghai. In a city of over 23 million inhabitants, where owning property has be-come a new form to acquire social status and security, a bubble in the real estate market could be disastrous.

PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13

China’s unusually high national savings

lending practices developed, leading to

may be other political motives behind

Investment in real estate through China’s banking system is tied to speculation as many buyers are not the end users, but

buy distorts the entire housing and retail

It is purely short-run market speculation

large scale are meant to be lived in -- not

not translate into practical use, except as

China, given that there are no high-grade

regulation, the Chinese government is

In the past, the government tried to

homes, rather than outsiders purchasing

Moreover, the government also enacted

multiple houses by individuals to curb

emphasis on maintaining order, acting under the assumption that short-term economic hindrance is better than long-

Chinese buyers have also been actively

11

this regulation, the government hopes to

China’s high savings rate and

reducing property prices through regulation

On paper, there seems to be a

hope China has the means and the political

Aeconomic deterioration, rising crime rates and increasing poverty, Venezuelans may have

President Hugo Chávez and the

democratic unity, is campaigning

competed against several political

Miranda and arguably the most

at no surprise, the voter turnout

accordinag to statistics provided by the Venezuelan electoral

translate into a larger turnout

more than six months remaining

violence, corruption, impunity

restructure the institution and PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12Plaza Altamira, located in the Chacao district of Caracas. In the past, this plaza has served as a hub for political demonstrations for both the Chavistas and opposition. In 2002, three citizens were massacred while protesting against Hugo Chavez, and, in 2004, an opposition protester was shot down by government supporters while protesting the presidential referendum results.

Winter 2012 13

IRReview: Venezuela is living through

supporting the Chavista government and

reconcile the country? Capriles: Venezuela needs a President

Our current government in Miranda is

IRReview:

Public and private schools are lacking

the trained personnel and technology to

education system in Venezuela?

Caprilescontemplates substantially increasing the

education to college-level education;; and

IRReview: Currently, criminal violence is

in the short and long run?

Caprilesis to protect and guarantee the right to

measures that can be taken, both in the

lost bullets, or any procedural delays that

into consideration the particular realities

involving every responsible institution in

14

To the right: Petroleums De Venezuela headquarters displays a banner of incumbent Hugo Chavez, which reads in Spanish “Move forward, commander.” The banner is meant to show the company’s support for Chavez as he battles cancer. This exempli"es the state’s use of public resources to promote Chavez’s candidacy, which is the largest challenge Capriles faces in the election. PHOTO CREDIT/HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12

IRReview: Venezuela is living through

supporting the Chavista government and

reconcile the country? Capriles: Venezuela needs a President

Our current government in Miranda is

IRReview:

Public and private schools are lacking

the trained personnel and technology to

education system in Venezuela?

Caprilescontemplates substantially increasing the

education to college-level education;; and

IRReview: Currently, criminal violence is

in the short and long run?

Caprilesis to protect and guarantee the right to

measures that can be taken, both in the

lost bullets, or any procedural delays that

into consideration the particular realities

involving every responsible institution in

14

To the right: Petroleums De Venezuela headquarters displays a banner of incumbent Hugo Chavez, which reads in Spanish “Move forward, commander.” The banner is meant to show the company’s support for Chavez as he battles cancer. This exempli!es the state’s use of public resources to promote Chavez’s candidacy, which is the largest challenge Capriles faces in the election. PHOTO CREDIT/HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12

Winter 2012

to intervene in Syria continues to linger

to ensure that their voices are heard, Assad claims his government is merely crushing armed gangs supported by the

government rallies by compensating

outlandish statements such as his insistence

by opposition Syrians that Assad is indeed

international institutions put in place to

to-protect principle can bring the brutal

these principles, it is necessary that China

addressing countries that violate

rights, is crucial in ensuring that the human

and the international community should

United States needs to pressure Syria to

addition, organizations such as Amnesty

should be permitted into the country to

pro-democracy protesters by the Syrian

has been the regime's strategic ally since

serving as its bridgehead in the eastern 1

Since the Iran-Syrian alliance is strong, the United States needs strategic

American diplomats must interact closely

that potential actions taken in Syria are multilateral rather than unilateral, its goals

message to other autocratic regimes in

August 2011After months of protests and military backlash, U.S. President Barack Obama and allies call for Syrian President Assad to step down.

Russia and China veto the U.N. resolution condemning Syria. Meanwhile, internal and exiled opposition activists form Syrian National Council.

October 2011

November 2011Army defectors target a military base near Damascus in what is considered the Free Syrian Army’s most high-pro"le attack since the start of protests. Government supporters attack foreign embassies.

The uprising’s death toll exceeds 5,000. In addition, two suicide bombs outside security buildings in Damascus kill 44 people. The opposition suspects the government.

Arab League o#cials arrive as part of Assad’s agreement to allow the organization monitor Syria. Thousands of protesters gather in Homs to greet them.

December 2011

January 2012A suicide bomber kills 26 in Damascus, to which the government responds by claiming an “iron "st” approach. The Arab League suspends its monitoring after violence increases.

February 2012Russia and China block a U.N. Security Council draft resolution on Syria, as the government increases bombing of Homs and other cities.

Steps toward Intervention in Syria

IRReview: Most problems that Venezuela

Capriles:

road to achieving progress in our country is having a good education system at

IRReview

the United States and Venezuela has

you implement to improve this bilateral relationship? CaprilesVenezuela and other countries must

highly dependent on oil production, to

Venezuelan presidential election online at

PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12The national headquarters of Capriles’s campaign, known as the Comando Tricolor (the tri-color command). This building houses representatives from all of the opposition parties involved in the MUD.

Winter 2012

to intervene in Syria continues to linger

to ensure that their voices are heard, Assad claims his government is merely crushing armed gangs supported by the

government rallies by compensating

outlandish statements such as his insistence

by opposition Syrians that Assad is indeed

international institutions put in place to

to-protect principle can bring the brutal

these principles, it is necessary that China

addressing countries that violate

rights, is crucial in ensuring that the human

and the international community should

United States needs to pressure Syria to

addition, organizations such as Amnesty

should be permitted into the country to

pro-democracy protesters by the Syrian

has been the regime's strategic ally since

serving as its bridgehead in the eastern 1

Since the Iran-Syrian alliance is strong, the United States needs strategic

American diplomats must interact closely

that potential actions taken in Syria are multilateral rather than unilateral, its goals

message to other autocratic regimes in

August 2011After months of protests and military backlash, U.S. President Barack Obama and allies call for Syrian President Assad to step down.

Russia and China veto the U.N. resolution condemning Syria. Meanwhile, internal and exiled opposition activists form Syrian National Council.

October 2011

November 2011Army defectors target a military base near Damascus in what is considered the Free Syrian Army’s most high-pro!le attack since the start of protests. Government supporters attack foreign embassies.

The uprising’s death toll exceeds 5,000. In addition, two suicide bombs outside security buildings in Damascus kill 44 people. The opposition suspects the government.

Arab League o"cials arrive as part of Assad’s agreement to allow the organization monitor Syria. Thousands of protesters gather in Homs to greet them.

December 2011

January 2012A suicide bomber kills 26 in Damascus, to which the government responds by claiming an “iron !st” approach. The Arab League suspends its monitoring after violence increases.

February 2012Russia and China block a U.N. Security Council draft resolution on Syria, as the government increases bombing of Homs and other cities.

Steps toward Intervention in Syria

IRReview: Most problems that Venezuela

Capriles:

road to achieving progress in our country is having a good education system at

IRReview

the United States and Venezuela has

you implement to improve this bilateral relationship? CaprilesVenezuela and other countries must

highly dependent on oil production, to

Venezuelan presidential election online at

PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12The national headquarters of Capriles’s campaign, known as the Comando Tricolor (the tri-color command). This building houses representatives from all of the opposition parties involved in the MUD.

is in the United States’ interest to convince both countries that Assad is not to be trusted

an encroachment on its traditional sphere

established military ties to Damascus have

3

understand that in this particular situation, economic considerations should be ignored because innocent civilians are being killed

market, there has not been enough done to

must be severely restricted and Syria’s central bank should not be given access to

that some damage has been done to the economy but not to the overall aid count,

4

members must recognize that this practice

to these situations, the international community agreed to protect citizens’

Syria, the international community needs to recognize that any steps taken to stop

“If the United States and other members of the United Nations construct a well-planned humanitarian mission to help the oppressed in Syria, the

nation’s people will recognize it as a form of assistance rather than a violation of their sovereignty.”

that humanitarian intervention could prove

peacekeepers may be required to stabilize

miserably, multilateral humanitarian action

like Slobodan Milosevic demonstrate

humanitarian mission to help the oppressed

the Syrian people but also to set an example

strict economic sanctions that immediately cripple the accused regime and ensure

It is evident that action in Syria

guarantee this, multilateral actions are essential to end crimes against humanity

are taken to intervene and the international community provides support, problems

Winter 2012

1 Despite

nations, some members have not properly

problem nation in the union has been

adopted, its loan and bond rates declined

bailout packages, austerity measures and

3

4

PHOTO CREDIT: MATTHEW REITMAN, CAS ’13 The Greek $ag has symbolized the birth of Western civilization. It now waves in an air of uncertainty, as the economic future of Greece remains uncertain.

is in the United States’ interest to convince both countries that Assad is not to be trusted

an encroachment on its traditional sphere

established military ties to Damascus have

3

understand that in this particular situation, economic considerations should be ignored because innocent civilians are being killed

market, there has not been enough done to

must be severely restricted and Syria’s central bank should not be given access to

that some damage has been done to the economy but not to the overall aid count,

4

members must recognize that this practice

to these situations, the international community agreed to protect citizens’

Syria, the international community needs to recognize that any steps taken to stop

“If the United States and other members of the United Nations construct a well-planned humanitarian mission to help the oppressed in Syria, the

nation’s people will recognize it as a form of assistance rather than a violation of their sovereignty.”

that humanitarian intervention could prove

peacekeepers may be required to stabilize

miserably, multilateral humanitarian action

like Slobodan Milosevic demonstrate

humanitarian mission to help the oppressed

the Syrian people but also to set an example

strict economic sanctions that immediately cripple the accused regime and ensure

It is evident that action in Syria

guarantee this, multilateral actions are essential to end crimes against humanity

are taken to intervene and the international community provides support, problems

Winter 2012

1 Despite

nations, some members have not properly

problem nation in the union has been

adopted, its loan and bond rates declined

bailout packages, austerity measures and

3

4

PHOTO CREDIT: MATTHEW REITMAN, CAS ’13 The Greek !ag has symbolized the birth of Western civilization. It now waves in an air of uncertainty, as the economic future of Greece remains uncertain.

other countries incentives to invest in

incentive, the other countries may be

On a

in debt, as the increase in cost could make

provide a concrete example and precedent

According to

11

strong economy, proving the risk involved

that have investments in its economy, as it

the international community, especially

States are inclined to help individuals act

should have led to the maximization

the country's debt increased revealing the

PHOTO CREDIT: MATTHEW REITMAN, CAS ’13

in markets on an international level,

liberalism that all decisions made must be

theory to guide its behavior as a state

rely on the theory economic globalization

13

economic regionalism because it has

eliminated traditional trade barriers such

that there are problems to such regional

this hinders its ability to repay its debts,

14 Such

the international economic community

economy, it could succeed or it could

“Greece’s departure would hurt the EU’s in$uence

and reputation as a powerful force

in the eyes of the international

community.”

Winter 2012


other countries incentives to invest in

incentive, the other countries may be

On a

in debt, as the increase in cost could make

provide a concrete example and precedent

According to

11

strong economy, proving the risk involved

that have investments in its economy, as it

the international community, especially

States are inclined to help individuals act

should have led to the maximization

the country's debt increased revealing the


in markets on an international level,

liberalism that all decisions made must be

theory to guide its behavior as a state

rely on the theory economic globalization

13

economic regionalism because it has

eliminated traditional trade barriers such

that there are problems to such regional

this hinders its ability to repay its debts,

14 Such

the international economic community

economy, it could succeed or it could

“Greece’s departure would hurt the EU’s in!uence

and reputation as a powerful force

in the eyes of the international

community.”

Winter 2012


Winter 2012

Staff Editorial:

Al-Qaeda, a global terrorist network, announced on Feb. 10 in a video released to the public that it had added more than 14,000 new troops by merging with Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahideen, more commonly known as al-Shabab. !e video featured al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri. He stated, “I give you good news today that will make the faithful happy and the Crusaders cringe: al Shabab in Somalia has joined al Qaeda,” ABC news reported. Al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane responded to this announcement, by “pledging obedience” to his leadership. Al-Shabab, a Somalia-based terrorist group, controls most southern and central areas of Somalia. !e organization faced pressure from African Union troops concerning their supposed claims to territory within Somalia, resulting in the organization joining forces with al-Qaeda. Another probable cause for the merge was Kenya and Ethiopia’s attempts to push back Islamists in the short term by sending aid and forces into Somalia along the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders. Al-Shabab’s decline in resources gave them another incentive to make this move, as members have not received any "nancial aid or support from other nations or organizations. A number of Somali citizens marched through Mogadishu on Feb. 15 in

response to the terrorist union. “Al-Qaeda should stop meddling with Somalia's a#airs and leave our country," protestor Suleiman Mumin said to African news source Magharebia. Mumin stated Somalia is ready to "ght back against “al-Qaeda and al-Shabab’s 'no to life' in Somalia.” Somali Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia, also announced to the protestors that people residing in the country no longer tolerate al-Qaeda’s violence. !ese citizen-organized protests were a glimpse of hope for the infamous “failed-state” that has struggled to unite. Mainstream media outlets such as BBC, ABC and !e Telegraph, have shed light on the importance of al-Qaeda in"ltrating deeper into the African continent. However, multiple African and Middle-Eastern news sources conveyed that al-Qaeda’s presence in the region is nothing new. !ese sources reported that al-Qaeda and al-Shabab have been historically tied and that the recent merge announcement seemed like a clever ploy to get a weakened al-Qaeda back into the headlines. Despite what major news outlets have expressed, the announcement may be nothing more than a desperate act to make al-Qaeda appear more relevant in the global arena. Al-Qaeda’s leadership has died down since Osama bin Laden’s demise last May. With Syria and the Arab spring dominating

recent news coverage in the Middle East and Africa, there has been little room for al-Qaeda to stir fear. !e publicity stunt may have gotten the press members wanted, but it has not gained the same attention it did in previous years. !at, if anything, should prove the weakness of the organization. Al-Qaeda’s support from international allies also declined. BBC reported that Hamas and Hezbollah, have begun sever ties with al-Qaeda. As a result of the decrease in leadership and media exposure, there has also been a corresponding decrease in militancy. By forming an alliance with al-Shabab, al-Qaeda has not only increased its militant base, but also gained much-needed media attention. !e Western world’s concerns involving terrorism may have prevented the media from identifying the merge as a strategic response to low numbers, rather than a sign of growth. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda’s next step remains unclear, as does its future. As the mainstream media continues to highlight the signi"cance of this recent merge, it is now essential to analyze the motives behind this recent alliance. Perhaps they might re$ect al-Qaeda’s search for a boost in its morale or an increase in its exposure. As of today, the e#ects this alliance will have on Somalis or al-Shabab occupied territories remains uncertain.

Letter to the editor

Voice your opinions Submit a

Send to [email protected]

!e International Relations Review

Volume III, Issue I

The International Relations Review

Amrita Singh, Ad Manager CAS ’14

a subsidiary

is an international relations magazine serving the undergraduate students at

but not limited to globalization, international security, human rights,

images in the publication are processed

editorial board also handles external

relations, marketing, advertising and

Colophon

Have a critique you’re itching to point out? Want to voice your opinion?

anonymously, unless there is a clear

Any questions about letters

Letters to the Editor

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REVIEWglobal

news

thoroughanalysis

studentopinion

Connect with IR enthusiasts at Boston University. The IR Review circulates among the more than 1,200 students in international relations, along with those in anthropology, economics,political science, environmentalpolicy and journalism, all part of a young, scholarly audience.

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Want to advertise with the IR Review?

!e International Relations Review

Volume III, Issue I

The International Relations Review

Amrita Singh, Ad Manager CAS ’14

a subsidiary

is an international relations magazine serving the undergraduate students at

but not limited to globalization, international security, human rights,

images in the publication are processed

editorial board also handles external

relations, marketing, advertising and

Colophon

Have a critique you’re itching to point out? Want to voice your opinion?

anonymously, unless there is a clear

Any questions about letters

Letters to the Editor

reli

gion g

loba

lizat

ion n

ationalism foreign interventionism state sovereignty public health energy political activism h

um

an r

igh

ts terr

or

ism so

cial m

edia eco

no

mic d

evelopment carbon footprint politicial activism diplomacy warfare embargoes

culture

fr

ee t

rade

co

mm

unit

y m

ilit

ary

infl

uen

ce

wo

rld

ban

k d

evel

opm

ent

go

als

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clas

s diff

eren

ces m

ilitary influence theocracy public opinion national identity border dispute n

ego

tiation

sustain

able develo

pmen

t glo

bal markets pan

dem

ics natural resources sanctions technology bureaucracy social equity U

nited N

atio

ns so

cial

med

ia f

ore

ign

po

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ove

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anc

e c

ivil

un

res

t

publ

ic h

ealt

h N

ews

INT

ERN

ATIO

NA

L

RELATIONS

REVIEWglobal

news

thoroughanalysis

studentopinion

Connect with IR enthusiasts at Boston University. The IR Review circulates among the more than 1,200 students in international relations, along with those in anthropology, economics,political science, environmentalpolicy and journalism, all part of a young, scholarly audience.

For more information about advertising opportunities, contact the IR Review at [email protected]

Want to advertise with the IR Review?

This issue’s cover shot by Molly Masterson.Taken in Shanghai, China.

the international relations review - winter 2012

Documents

graciela mario

com 15index3

power of investment

material wealth of houses

plolwdu mxqwd ri

south sudanese rebels

vudhol rffxsdwlrq

financial bubble