the international constraint on monetary policy
TRANSCRIPT
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Polytechnic University of the Philippines
College of Economics, Finance, and Politics
Department of Banking and Finance
Sta. Mesa, Manila
THE INTERNATIONAL
CONSTRAINT ONMONETARY POLICY
Submitted by:
Araa, Dyan E.
Anyayahan, Sherry Mae M.
Dioquino, Harold Jim B.
Mercado, Monica Lucille Anne M.
Onte, Pamela M.
Valdez, Janine Luz A.
BBF 4-10N
Submitted to:
Mr. Rolando Fernandez
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THE BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS AND MACROECONOMIC
EQUILIBRIUM
The theory of monetary policy assumed that the central bank had complete freedom to
manipulate the money supply. Such freedom implies no significant constraints on the level of
interest rates other than those imposed in the market by the behavior of asset holders. This isnot always the case in practice.
For example, in discussing the theory of central bank control of the supply of money we
referred briefly to the period during and immediately after World War II, when the Federal
Reserve stabilized government bond yields at low levels. The Federal Reserve guaranteed
holders of government bonds that the price of those securities would not change significantly.
Under postwar inflationary conditions, the policy of pegging interest rates was inconsistent with
the vigorous use of monetary policy to restrain aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve was
virtually powerless to use open-market operations to restrain those inflationary pressures.
In the contemporary context, there are other powerful external constraints onindependent monetary action by the central bank that have arisen from the rapid increase in
trade between countries, persistent balance of payment disequilibria, and the increasing mobility
of capital flows across national boundaries in a world that has adhered to fixed exchange rates.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE
The foreign exchange rate is simply a price the dollar price of one unit of foreign
currency. Of course, there are many foreign currencies and in this sense many foreign
exchange rates.
Although it is simply a price, in most respects just like the price of any other financial instrument
determined in the market place by the interaction of supply and demand forces, foreign
exchange rates have one rather than unusual and, for our purposes, crucial characteristic. They
have been the central concern of negotiation, agreements, and tensions for several decades. In
1944, an international treaty, the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund
(commonly called the Bretton Woods Agreement) was signed. It was supposed to resolve all
financial problems between countries by creating a constitution for a stable international
monetary system. The key concept was that of stable exchange rates, adjusted from time to
time in an orderly, mutually agreed upon function. Nations were not to resort to competitive
devaluations of their currency in order to achieve a balance-of-payments surplus or to correct
temporary balance of payments disequilibria. An international monetary fund was created to
overcome the monetary system and to make loans of foreign exchange reserves from time to
time to assist in maintaining the fixed exchange rates. The emphasis of the Agreement was onpromoting the exchange of goods and services freer trade. Little was mentioned about
freedom of capital movements. In fact, controls on international capital flows by individual
countries were permitted. Gradually, barriers to international capital flows were relaxed by many
of the industrialized nations.
The basic obligation assumed by the governments under the Bretton Woods
international monetary constitution was to declare an official par rate of exchange and to
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ensure that the foreign exchange rate at which transactions were consummated in the spot
foreign exchange markets did not depart from a narrow band around that official par rate.
The United States obligation was to maintain convertibility between dollars and gold.
The value of the dollar was fixed in terms of gold; other national currencies were also fixed in
terms of gold. Those nations, however, maintained convertibility of their currencies into dollars
(or, in a few cases, pounds sterling) rather than gold.
The Bretton Woods rules were not inviolable. Naturally, most national governments were
unwilling to surrender control of their monetary sovereignty and become unquestioning
adherents to these rules. Domestic policy considerations, often at odds with fixed exchange
rates, necessitated unilateral action. Most countries made major or minor violations from time to
time. From World War II to mid-1971, only 2 countries the United States and Japan out of 21
developed, industrialized countries did not change the official par value of their currency.
Despite the frequent violations of the Bretton Woods Agreement, this international
monetary system served its members and world trade well until the mid-1960s. Since that time
monetary crises were more frequent, which suggests that the Bretton Woods rules had been
abandoned for all practical purposes and the major industrialized nations were seeking a new
international monetary constitution. Gold had been partially demonetized, and its price
fluctuated widely in free international markets. Many major countries had flexible exchange
rates while international conferences were convened to seek a new, more suitable set of rules;
new monetary agreements are not written quickly. Such activity takes time, cooperative and
creative effort, and a great deal of compromise.
Let us examine how the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates constrained
monetary policy, for although there were frequent and often serious violations of the Bretton
Woods rules, that in it should not be taken as evidence that those rules were irrelevant. Rather,the violations are evidence that rigid application of such rules gave rise from time to time to
serious stresses and strains within the international financial system.
From our point of view, the underlying problem was that the Bretton Woods rules
imposed severe constraints on domestic stabilization policies for many countries. Indeed, the
policies required by the international rules of the game occasionally stood in stark conflict with
those required to achieve important domestic objectives. Our task in this and the following
chapter is to examine the economics of monetary and fiscal policies in the context of an
international financial system operating according to the Bretton Woods rules. Only then will we
be able to understand the nature of the problems give rise to urgent proposals for reform of the
international financial system.
What were the most important rules of the game under Bretton Woods?
Under Bretton Woods rules, each government was obliged to ensure that the forces of
supply and demand in the foreign exchange market did not drive its foreign exchange rate
beyond the narrow band around the official par rate of exchange. A flexible exchange rate that,
in response to demand and supply pressures fluctuated over a wider range that the official hand
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on either side of par a clear violation of the letter and spirit of monetary constitution. Member
countries could impose narrower bands and intervene when foreign exchange rated exceeded
these self-imposed limits. The United States had a slightly different obligation under Bretton
Woods. It guaranteed to maintain the dollar convertible into gold at a fixed price. It was willing to
buy and sell gold at prices within a similar narrow band around the official price of $35 per
ounce. The American central bank was not obligated to intervene in spot foreign currency interms of the dollar; that was the responsibility of the foreign central banks. Its commitment was
to maintain the price of the dollar in terms of gold. Since 1961, however, the Federal Reserve
has intervened in both the spot and forward exchange markets from time to time to maintain
exchange rates. The United States should be viewed as a country that normally did not
intervene.
Adjustable Peg. Adjustments in the official par rate of exchange were not ruled out,
although such changes were not to be infrequent, subject to international consultation and
approval, and only in response to exceptional and intractable balance of payment pressures. No
criteria were made explicit by which official par exchange rate disequilibria could be judged as
either temporary or fundamental. This hampered the timely adjustment of official exchange ratesand permitted pressure on domestic economies and exchange rates to accumulate.
As we shall see, the requirement of a pegged exchange rate of monetary controls to
help achieve domestic price level or employment objectives may be rendered impossible.
Avoidance of Direct Controls
There is frequently an easy way out of the dilemma posed by a conflict between the
domestic and external objectives of monetary policy through the use of direct foreign exchange
controls. Thus, for example, when the problems is excess demand for foreign exchange at the
maximum permitted foreign exchange rate, it is possible to maintain stability of the foreignexchange rate by official rationing of the restricted supply of foreign exchange in place of
rationing by the price mechanism. By giving itself the power to approve or disapprove
applications for foreign exchange, the government adds another weapon to its policy armory,
making it possible to keep the foreign exchange market in a continuous state of disequilibrium in
the foreign exchange market, monetary policy is freed from the international constraint, at least
in the short run.
Several countries have resorted to direct exchange controls from time to time. In order to
control foreign currencies the government usually must license firms exporting and importing
goods. The government must control the purchase of foreign assets by its residents,
investments made abroad by the country. Direct controls involve arbitrary interference with theallocation of resources in the economy. In general, they impair microeconomic efficiency. In any
case, aside from exceptional circumstances, direct foreign exchange controls with regard to
trade of goods and services were to be avoided under the Bretton Woods rules.
In the event of excessive demand or supply pressures in the foreign exchange market,
the government has two courses of action open to it if it is to maintain the stability of the foreign
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exchange rate without resort to direct foreign exchange controls. We can call these direct
intervention and indirect intervention.
Direct Intervention
The government can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market, buying foreign
exchange when there is an excess supply at the minimum permitted exchange rate and selling itwhen there is excess demand at the maximum permitted foreign exchange rate. For this
purpose the government institutes a stock of foreign exchange that can be augment or drawn
upon as necessary to permit direct intervention in the market.
Indirect Intervention
Alternatively, the government can attempt to regulate the underlying private demands for
or supplies of foreign exchange. Thus, for example, if the problem is excess demand for foreign
exchange, the government can attempt to reduce private demands for foreign exchange or to
increase the flow of foreign exchange from private sources onto the foreign exchange market.
Part of our problem is to show how the government can do this, and particularly how monetarypolicy can be used to regulate the demand and supply of foreign exchange. The main concern
of this chapter is the analysis of these two modes of governmental intervention in the foreign
exchange market. However, before turning to this analysis it is useful to have before on a brief
sketch of the foreign exchange market.
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
The term foreign exchange market is used in a broad sense to encompass all
transactions involving the exchange of foreign currencies against dollars, and in a narrow sense
to refer to a highly organized component of the broad market, the interbank market in foreign
exchange. In what follows w use the term in the broader sense, which encompasses alltransactions in which foreign exchange is exchanged in against dollars, whether those
transactions occur in the United States or abroad. It should also be noted that the definition
encompasses both spot and forward exchange transactions. However, throughout most of the
discussion we will not distinguish between the spot and forward exchange rates.
The foreign exchange market in the United States is not an organized exchange with a
specific physical location but is similar to the market for money market instruments. Its
participants are linked by telephone and teller communication to each other here in the United
States and to institutions performing similar function in financial centers around the world.
Several New York banks handle the bulk of trading in the United States, although some trading
occurs in other cities. If these New York banks are to satisfy the requirements of their customersimmediately and without question, they must hold an inventory of foreign exchange. To this end,
they hold some foreign currency in their vaults and maintain deposit balances with foreign
banks. These are the banks working balances. The banks buy and sell foreign exchange to
meet the needs of their customers, be they businesses, households, governments, or other
domestic banks. Foreign exchange purchased is added to these working balances; foreign
exchange sold is drawn out.
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However, both profit maximization and the ever present foreign exchange risk dictate
that working balances should be no larger than necessary for efficiency in foreign exchange
operations. This means that the bank must have an efficient mechanism for the quick disposal
of excess foreign exchange and for the quick acquisition of foreign exchange to replenish
working balances should they be inadequate. Such a mechanism is provided by the interbank
market.
The Interbank Market
The interbank market is made in New York among those dealing in foreign exchange
dealers and brokers in foreign exchange, agents of foreign banks, some securities firms, and
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York acting on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and
the Treasury. Secondary, the market for foreign exchange exist kike San Francisco, Boston,
Chicago, Philadelphia, and Detroit, but most participants have representatives in the New York
interbank market as well.
International Arbitrage.The foreign exchange rate determined in the interbank market in
New York is influenced by interbank foreign exchange markets in other financial centers
throughout the world. In these other markets dollars as well as other currencies are bought and
sold. If the rate in one market is out of line with that in another, an arbitrager will place an order
for immediate execution to buy in one market and resell in the other. While the margin of profit
in arbitraging is small (from which transactions cost must be deducted), on a larger volume of
funds this could be an attractive proposition. Arbitrager may involve more than two foreign
exchange markets and it may be conducted by professional arbitragers, who are alert to
disorderly cross rates of exchange, or by the normal participants in the market. Perhaps most
important as a continuing force the market are the banks buying the foreign exchanges they
require in the cheapest market and selling their excess foreign exchange in the dearest market.
The banks are well organized to do this, being in instantaneous contact with their agencies inother major international financial centers.
An International Market.The important point is that arbitrage will occur as long as the
rates in other markets are out of line with each other, and this arbitrage will have the effect of
bringing the rates into line. In this way, arbitrage ties the foreign exchange markets in all
countries together into a single international foreign exchange market.
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The balance of payments is a statistical summary of the actual flow of economic
transactions between Philippine residents and residents of the rest of the world during a given
period.
The Accounts
For the purposes of balance of payments accounting, international transactions are
divided into three major categories: the balance of international payments on current account,
the balance of international payments on capital account, and the movement of gold coins and
bullion is sometimes shown separately in the third section.
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Balance of International Payments on Current Account:
The balance of payment, as we know, is built up in terms of credit and debit entries. On
the side of credit account, the amount which a country has to receive from the other country is
shown, while on the debt side of the account, the payment which has to be made to other
countries is entered. In the balance of payment on current account, only those items are entered
which do not create a new item or cancel a previously existing capital claim.
Main Credit Items in the Balance on Current Account are as Follow:
(i) Value of merchandize exports.
(ii) Payments received from foreigners for rendering banking insurance and shipping services.
(iii) Travel expenditure of the foreign tourists in the country.
(iv) Expenditure of foreign students.
(v) Remittances of money by the nationals of the country living in other countries.
(vi) Income on investment (interest and dividend, etc.), from abroad.
(vii) Charity contributions made to the institutions by the foreigners.
(viii) Miscellaneous government transactions such as sale as of diplomatic representatives,
repatriation, military and payments, etc., etc.
Main Debit Items in the Balance of Payments on the Current Account are as Follows:
(i) Value on merchandise imports.
(ii) Payments made to the foreigners for rendering banking and insurance and shipping services
for the country.
(iii) Travel expenditure of country's tourists in other countries.
(iv) Payments made to country's students studying abroad.
(v) Remittance by immigrants to their home countries.
(vi) Interest and dividend payments by the foreigners to their countries.
(vii) Donations sent to other countries.
(viii) Miscellaneous government transactions such as salaries of diplomatic representatives,
repatriation; military aid payments, etc., etc. to other countries.
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Balance of International Payments on Capital Account:
The balance of international payments on capital account is split up into two parts, (i) the
balance of payment on long term capital account and (ii) the balance of payment on short term
capital account.
In the balance of international payment on long term capital account, we include the netprivate and government long term loans and net long term foreign investment. The short term
capital account is composed of (i) private or government short term loans and (ii) net investment
in short term debts.
The movement of capital from one country to another takes place due to three reasons:
Firstly, when country has to make investment abroad. Secondly, when it has to advance loans
to another country. Thirdly, when the capital has to he shifted due to safety reasons.
The movement of capital from one country to another has a serious repercussion on the
international payments on current account. When the capital is shifted to another country, a
payment is to be made. Therefore, it is a debit entry and when we borrow from abroad, wereceive payment, therefore it is credit entry. If we have a favorable balance on current account,
it may be offset by a debit account balance on capital account.
Gold Movements:
Gold is sometimes an important balancing item. If the deficit on international account
exists, it is covered by shipping gold from one country to another. U.S.A. received large quantity
of gold from other countries in the 1930's.
MACROECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM
Macroeconomic equilibrium for an economy in the short run is established when
aggregate demand intersects with short run aggregate supply. This is shown in the diagram
below:
At the price level Pe, the aggregatedemand for goods and services is equal tothe aggregate supply of output. Theoutput and the general price level in theeconomy will tend to adjust towards thisequilibrium position.
If the price level is too high, therewill be an excess supply of output. If theprice level is below equilibrium, there willbe excess demand in the short run. In bothsituations there should be a process takingthe economy towards the equilibrium levelof output.
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Consider for example a situation where aggregate supply is greater than currentdemand. This will lead to a build up in stocks (inventories) and this sends a signal to producerseither to cut prices (to stimulate an increase in demand) or to reduce output so as to reduce thebuild up of excess stocks. Either way - there is a tendency for output to move closer to thecurrent level of demand.
There may be occasions when in the short run; the economy cannot meet an increase indemand. This is more likely to occur when an economy reaches full-employment of factorresources. In this situation, the aggregate supply curve in the short run becomes increasinglyinelastic.
This diagram tracks the effect ofthis. We see aggregate demand risingbut the economy finds it difficult to raise(expand) production. There is a smallincrease in real national output, but themain effect is to put upward pressure onthe general price level. Shortages of
resources will lead to a general rise incosts and prices
Impact of a change in aggregate supply
Suppose that increased efficiencyand productivity together with lower input costs (e.g.of essential raw materials) causes the short run aggregate supply curve to shift outwards. (I.e.an increase in supply - assume no shift in aggregate demand).
This diagram shows what is likely tohappen. AS shifts outwards and a newmacroeconomic equilibrium will be established.The price level has fallen and real national output(in equilibrium) has increased to Y2.
Aggregate supply would shift inwards ifthere is a rise in the unit costs of productionin theeconomy. For example there might be a rise inunit wage costsperhaps caused by higher wagesnot compensated for by higher labourproductivity.
External economic shocksmight also cause the aggregate supply curve to shift inwards.
For example a sharp rise in global commodity prices. If AS shifts to the left, assuming nochange in the aggregate demand curve, we expect to see a higher price level (this is known ascost-push inflation) and a lower level of real national output.
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Impact of a shift in aggregate demand
In this diagram we see the effects on aninward shift in aggregate demand in theeconomy. This might be caused forexample by a decline in business
confidence (reducing planned investmentdemand) or a fall in United Kingdomexports following a global downturn. Itmight also be caused by a cut ingovernment spending or a rise in interestrates which leads to cutbacks in consumerspending.
The result of the inward shift of AD is a contraction along the short run aggregate supplycurve and a fall in the real level of national output. This causes downward pressure on thegeneral price level.
If aggregate demand shifts outwards (perhaps due to increased business confidence, aneconomic upturn in another country, or higher levels of government spending), we expect to seeboth a rise in the price level and higher national output.
National Income Equilibrium when Aggregate Supply is Perfectly Elastic
When short run aggregate supply isperfectly elastic, any change in aggregatedemand will feed straight through to a changein the equilibrium level of real national output.For example, when AD shifts out from AD1 toAD2 (shown in the diagram below) theeconomy is able to meet this increaseddemand by expanding output. The newequilibrium level of national income is Y2.Conversely when there is a fall in totaldemand for goods and services (AD1 shiftsinwards to AD3) we see a fall in real output.
Long Run Economic Growth
We have considered short-term changes in both aggregate demand and aggregatesupply. For an economy to experience sustained economic growth over the longer run it must
shift out the long run aggregate supply curve by either increasing the supply of factors ofproduction available (e.g. an increase in the labor supply, more land and more capital inputs);increasing the productivity of those factors or the economy might increase LRAS by achievingan improvement in the state of technology.
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An outward shift in the LRAS issimilar to an outward shift in the productionpossibility frontier.
The effects are shown in thisdiagram. If LRAS shifts out the economy
can operate at a higher level of aggregatedemand and can achieve an increase inreal national output without running intoproblems with inflation.
One of the main long-term economic objectives of the current labor government is toraise the economy's productive potential and therefore provide a platform for faster economicgrowth in future years. For this to happen, the economy needs to achieve a higher level ofinvestment in new capital and new technology. And the quantity and productivity of the laborforce also needs to increase over time.
PRICE LEVELS, EXCHANGE RATES. AND INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY PROBLEM
THE PRICE LEVEL AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
One of the basic propositions of elementary economic theory is that a change in relative
prices will induce substitution effects among the goods in question. Exactly the same thing will
happen if the prices of American goods and services change relative to those of goods and
services produced in the rest of the world. A rise in the American price level will induce
international substitution effects.
These effects will show up in various ways. Domestic consumers will be induced topurchase more important goods in substitution for the relatively more expensive goods
produced in the United States. Domestic producers of very close substitutes for imported goods
will find that they cannot raise prices without losing many costumersbut with rising costs they
will find it much less profitable these goods for sale at the given world prices. Their output will
fall as imports take over a larger share of the market. Similarly, domestic producers of goods for
export, faced with higher labor costs, will find it less profitable to produce for sale in world
markets at a given world prices. Their exports will fall. Indeed, even exporters who are not price
takers will find that higher prices their sale will be reduced.
The extent of the impact on the flow of the international trade will depend on the magnitude of
the change in prices and the relevant elasticities of demand and supply. However, the generaleffect of a rise in American costs and prices relative to world prices will be some decline in
exports and some rise in imports, reducing a surplus or increasing a deficit in the current
account of the balance of payments. A decline in American prices relative to world prices would
have the opposite effects. That is, it would to increase exports and reduce imports, increasing a
surplus or reducing a deficit in the current account of the balance of payments.
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This effect of changes in the price level on international trade introduces an important new
consideration into our analysis of the relationship between domestic monetary and fiscal policies
and the balance of international payments.
The Price Level, Domestic Policy Objectives, and the Balance-of-Payments Constraints.
Earlier we explored the relationship between domestic monetary and fiscal policies and the
balance of international payments on the assumptions that the domestic objective of policy was
very simple: the achievement of the unique level of the aggregate demand that would provide
full employment without inflation. If, instead of a unique full employment level of income, the
authorities are faced with a trade of function, a negative association between the level of
unemployment and the rate of change of the price level;, the objective of domestic policy is
necessarily more complicated. The choice of an objective involves an important subjective
consideration. The government must balance the undesirable consequences of higher rates of
inflation against the undesirable consequences of the higher levels of unemployment in order to
find what they consider to be the socially least undesirable combination of unemployment and
inflation. The objective of domestic policy, then, is the point on the trade-off functions that the
government considers most preferable. It is not necessarily a point of full employment, nor is itnecessarily a point of price stability. Let us briefly reconsider the problems of reconciling the
domestic and external objectives of monetary and fiscal policies in this context.
The Trade-Off Function and Policy Conflicts.In our previous analysis we considered the
domestic and external objectives of policy to have been achieved simultaneously if the balance
of payments was in equilibrium at full employment. When we introduce the trade-off function,
the comparable condition might seem to be that the balance of payments be in equilibrium at
the point on the trade-off function selected by the government, that is, at the combination of
inflation and unemployment preferred on domestic social and political grounds.
Unfortunately, the equilibrium of the balance of payments may be fleeting. The rate ofprice level change selected by the government may have continuing effects on the balance of
payments that will eventually disrupt the equilibrium.
For example, suppose that the rate of inflation chosen by the government for domestic
reasons is higher than that prevailing in the rest of the world. Even though the balance of
payments is initially in equilibrium, if prices here rise more rapidly than prices in the rest of the
world, international substitution effects will gradually worsen the current account balance, and a
deficit will emerge in the balance of payments. Under pegged exchange rates the exchange rate
will be driven to the ceiling, and exchange reserves will begin to fall. What appeared initially to
be a condition of harmony between the domestic and external objectives of policy will be turned
into a condition of conflict.
Something has to give. There are only two possibilities (unless the government resorts
to direct controls): the exchange rate or the domestic policy objective. If the exchange rate is to
remain pegged at its original par, the balance of payments must be brought into equilibrium, and
that means domestic policy will have to be modified in order to accept a lower rate of inflation
and a higher level of unemployment than the government would otherwise find most desirable
on social grounds. In effect, domestic policy formation is faced with a price level constraint. If
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the balance of payments is to be kept in equilibrium, he country will have to move toward the
same rate of inflation as that prevailing in the rest of the world.
The problems that arise because of balance of payments deficits are always dramatic.
However, as we have already seen, continuous balance-of-payments surpluses can also be
troublesome to a nation determined to maintain a pegged exchange rate.
With this in mind, consider what happens if the government chooses a rate of inflation
lower than that prevailing in the rest of the world. In this case, international substitution effects
will tend to produce an improvement in the current account, and although the balance of
payments is initially in equilibrium, a balance of payments surplus will eventually emerge. The
exchange rate will fall, and the government will be forced to accumulate foreign exchange
reserves to maintain the pegged rate.
Again, something will have to give. The government cannot go on accumulating foreign
exchange reserves indefinitely. Even if the financial problems associated with the accumulation
of reserves do not directly produce inflationary pressures, the government will eventually have
to modify its domestic objectives and accept the higher world rate of inflation if it is going to
maintain the pegged exchange rate.
Conclusion: The Price Level Constraint. The conclusion of this analysis is important.
While there is always some room for maneuver inherent in the imperfect operations of markets
and in time lags in the adjustment of production, consumption, and trade, with a pegged
exchange rate a government cannot choose any rate of inflation it desires, even though that rate
of inflation may initially be consistent with balance of payments equilibrium. These are a price
level constraint on domestic policy. Although this constraint is not instantaneous, that
government will be forced eventually to modify its ;policies to the world rate of inflation
accepting the implications of the trade-off function for the domestic level of unemployment.Attempts to achieve any other combination of inflation and unemployment will mean a chronic
balance-of-payments problem.
But all this presumes that the exchange rate is pegged. What happens if we make the
ultimate relaxation of our assumptions and allow the exchange rate to vary? Can the world
economy and the world financial system function with flexible exchange rates?
THE ECONOMICS OF FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES
A change in American prices relative to prices in the rest of the world can have a
powerful impact on the U.S. balance of international payments. However, it is not necessary to
change the price level to produce these effects. They could be achieved in theory equally wellby changing the foreign exchange rate.
Changes in the Exchange Rate vs. Changes in Price Levels
A rise in the price of foreign exchange raises the delivered price of foreign goods to
American buyers just as effectively as a rise in the foreign price level itself. Thus, it will tend to
restrict American imports. Similarly, the rise in the foreign exchange rate lowers the delivered
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price of American goods to foreign markets just as effectively as a decline in the U.S. price
level. It will tend to increase American exports. Taking the two affects together, a rise in the
foreign exchange rate will improve the current account balance and hence will tend to increase
a balance-of-payments surplus or reduce a balance-of-payments deficit. In terms of its impact
on the balance of payments, a rise in the foreign exchange rate is substitute for a fall in the
American price level or for a rise in the world price level.
The opposite arguments hold for a fall in the foreign exchange rate(a rise in the external
value of the dollar). By making American goods more expensive for foreign buyers, it would tend
to restrict exports. By making foreign goods less expensive by comparison for American buyers,
it would tend to increase imports. Thus, a fall in the foreign exchange rate will tend to worsen
the balance on current account and hence will tend to reduce a balance-of-payments surplus or
increase a balance-of-payments deficit even more. In terms of its impact on the balance of
payments, a fall in the foreign exchange rate is a substitute for a rise in the American price level
or a fall in the world price level.
The Exchange Rate and Contradiction Among Policy Objectives. It follows that changesin the exchange rate could be used to resolve balance-of-payments problems that would
otherwise force a drastic change in domestic monetary and fiscal policies if they were permitted
under a new international monetary constitution. A balance-of-payments deficit (whatever its
cause), we have seen, can be removed by an appropriate drop in the foreign exchange rate.
However, these are one-time changes. If domestic policy involves a rate of price level
change that is different from the rate prevailing in the rest of the world, balance-of-payments
equilibrium will require continual adjustment of the exchange rate. A more rapid rate of inflation
than the rest of the world is experiencing is consistent with balance of payments equilibrium only
if the exchange rate continuously rises. A slower rate of inflation than in the rest of the world
would call for continuous fall in the exchange rate. In other worlds the independence ofdomestic policy from external constraints is possible only if the exchange rate can be continually
adjusted to changing pressures in the foreign exchange market.
Flexible Exchange Rates. As we noted earlier, the foreign exchange rate is simply a
pricethe price of foreign moneyand as much is determined by the interaction of supply and
demand in the foreign exchange market. However, under the pegged exchange rate system,
that price is allowed to vary only within very narrow limits around the official par rate (unless, of
course, a decision is taken to alter the par rate). With a flexible exchange rate, there is no such
constraint on movement of the exchange rate. A flexible exchange rate is free to adjust
continually to changing pressures of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
Flexible Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy
Flexibility of the exchange rate crates a fundamentally different environment for
monetary and fiscal policy from that provided by the Bretton Woods international monetary
constitution. We examined the implications of the Bretton Woods rules for domestic stabilization
policy in the previous chapter.
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The Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments Equilibrium. The crucial difference
between the fixed and the--flexibleexchange rate systems is the mechanism for establishing
equilibrium in the balance international payments.
With a fixed exchange rate, the maintenance of equilibrium in the balance of payments
must be the responsibility of the government policy, particularly monetary policy. Unless there is
considerable flexibility in the levels of wages and prices, there is no automatic mechanism to
ensure the equilibration of demand and supply forces in the foreign exchange market in the
short run. With a flexible exchange rate, by contrast, the foreign exchange rate can be expected
to adjust automatically to maintain equilibrium in the balance of payments.
Consider the case in which the balance of payments is in deficit, perhaps because the
deficit on current account is greater than the surplus as capital account. There will be excess
demand for foreign exchange at the existing exchange rate. It is this pressure of excess
demand that will tend to increase the foreign exchange rate, and in the absence of an official
constraint on the rate it will rise.
The Current Account. As noted previously, a rise in the foreign exchange rate is
equivalent to a rise in the world price level relative to prices and wage rates in the United States.
As a result, these should be substitution effects in the current accounts of balance of payments.
Exports, which are now relatively cheaper to the rest of the world, should increase, and imports,
which are now relatively more expensive to American should fall. The current account should
adjust so as to eliminate the excess demand for foreign exchange.
The Capital Account.The behavior of the capital account is more problematic. The level
of the foreign exchange rate per se should relevant to international portfolio investment
decision. As long as the investor expects to bring his funds back at the same exchange rate at
which he takes them out of the country, the level of the foreign exchange rate will not be a factorin his calculations. If the investor expects the exchange rate to be the same when he brings his
funds home as when he sends them out, the exchange rate applicable to the two foreign
exchange transactions simply cancel each other out. All that is relevant to the calculation of the
expected net return is the difference in interest rates (although the risk of change in the
exchange rate will be relevant to the investment decision, of course).
It is different if the investor has reasons to expect a change in the foreign exchange rate.
Any increase in the foreign exchange rate will give an added premium to American investments
in securities denominated in foreign, currencies and will impose a penalty on nonresidents
investments in American securities.
To know what will happen in the capital account as the exchange rate rises, then, we
must know what happens to investors expectations about the future course of the exchange
rates, there will be an incentive for more American investment abroad and less foreign
investment in the United States. Capital outflows should be increased or capital inflows reduced.
However, if investors feel that the rise is temporary and that the rate will eventually subside,
there will be an incentive for less American investment abroad and more foreign investment in
the United States. Capital inflows should be increased or capital outflows curtailed. If, by
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contrast, they expect the exchange rate to be unchanged at any particular level established at
any particular time, then capital inflows and outflows will be unaffected by the change in the
exchange rate. In other words, if the net capital inflow does not increase or decrease it will stay
the same.
The crucial consideration is that of investors expectation of future changes in the
exchange rate, not the present level of the exchange rate. Unfortunately, we know very little
about the determinants of these expectations. With this in mind, perhaps it is best to first
consider the case in which we can ignore expectations. That is, we will assume that investors
take the existing exchange rate to be the best to first consider the case in which we can ignore
expectations. That is, we will assume that investors take the existing exchange rate to be the
best estimate of what future exchange rates will be, regardless of the present level or the past
history of the exchange rate. In this case, the entire adjustment in the balance of payments
occurs in the current account. The net capital inflow will be unaffected by the rise in the
exchange rate. Imports must fall and exports rise until the current account deficit is tailored to
the net capital inflow. Exactly the opposite arguments would apply if we had chosen a case of
balance-of-payments surplus.
The Balance-of-Payments Constraint on Monetary Policy. The first important point is that
the BK curve (the focus of combination of interest rate and the income levels that are consistent
with the equilibrium in the balance of payments) is no longer a useful concept. Balance-of-
payments equilibrium will be maintained through continual adjustments in the foreign exchange
rate.
We started with the net capital flow function, reflecting the sensitivity of international
capital flows to international differences in interest rates. If we can ignore expectations of future
changes in the exchange rate, this function will be unchanged under a regime of flexible
exchange rates.
The second component of the BK curve was the current account balance function, which
we build up on the assumption that exports were given and imports depended on the levels of
investment and consumption expenditures. However, with a flexible exchange rate, both imports
and exports depend directly on the level of the foreign exchange rate. Moreover, since the
foreign exchange rate will always rise when there is an excess demand for foreign exchange
(e.g. the current account deficit exceeds the capital account surplus) and fall when there is an
excess supply of foreign exchange (e.g. the current account deficit is less than the capital
account surplus), the exchange rate will always adjust until he current account balance is equal
in size and opposite in direction to the capital account balance.
It should be emphasized that this could require wide fluctuations in the exchange rate
from time to time, depending on the sensitivity of import and export demands to change in the
exchange rate.
With a flexible exchange rate, the current account balance is a residual, determined by
the capital account balance. The current account balance function is the mirror image of the net
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capital flow function. The sole determinant of the aggregate current account balance will be the
level of interest rates in the United States relative to world interest rates.
The current account balance is based on the assumption that the flexible exchange rate
will adjust until the current account balance is just equal in the size and opposite in direction to
the capital account balance. At high levels of interest rates in the United States, there will be a
net capital inflow. However, as a result of the automatic adjustment of the exchange rate, the
surplus in the capital account will be exactly offset by an equal deficit in the current account. At
low levels of interest rates in the United States, there will be a net capital outflow. However, as a
result of the automatic adjustment of the exchange rate, the deficit in the capital account will be
exactly offset by an equal surplus in the current account. The net balance-of-payments surplus
or deficit (lower section) will always be zero, regardless of the level of interest rates (and hence,
by implications, regardless of the level of income and output). A flexible exchange rate will
ensure that the balance of payments is always in equilibrium.
If the government is willing and able to ignore wide fluctuations in the foreign exchange
rate, a flexible exchange rate frees domestic monetary policy from the balance-of-paymentsconstraint.
This is not the only implication of flexibility in the foreign exchange rate, however. A
flexible exchange rate, coupled with highly interest elastic international capital flows, will
reinforce the impact of monetary policy on domestic income and output.
Effectiveness of Monetary Policy. The implications of flexible exchange rates for the
domestic impact of monetary policy should be obvious if you keep in mind that both exports and
imports are factors determining the level of aggregate demand.
We have seen that restrictive monetary policy, which raises American interest rates
relative to interest rates in the rest of the world, will induce capital inflows and thus, by creating
an excess supply of foreign exchange, depress the foreign exchange rate. The exchange rate
will have to fall until the combination of increased imports and reduced exports produces a
current account deficit large enough to offset the capital inflows. But remember, both the
increase in imports and the reduction in exports depress aggregate demand. These exchange
rate induced effects on aggregate demand are in addition to any effects that might result from
the direct impact of tight money on investment expenditures. In other words, the flexibility of the
exchange rate, coupled with the sensitivity of international capital flows to interest rates, has
strengthened the restrictive impact of a tight money policy.
You should be able to trace a similar analysis for the case of an expansionary monetary
policy under a regime of flexible exchange rates. The conclusion is the same: Flexibility of
exchange rates reinforces the impact of an expansionary monetary policy.
A Classical Case. The elasticity of the IS function in the flexible exchange rate case
depend directly on the elasticity of the net capital flow function. In the extreme, we might
conceive of the net capital flow function that is perfectly elastic with respect to American interest
rates. That is, any deviation of American interest rates from some given level (world interest
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rates, or world interest rates plus a risk premium) would induce massive movement of capital
either into or out of the country. In such a situation, the level of interest rate here would be
rigidly tied to the world level of interest rates, and the IS curve would also be perfectly interest
elastic at this level of interest rates.
In this case, the level of income depends simply on the demand for and the supply of
money. Monetary policy would be all powerful, while fiscal policy would have absolutely no
impact. An increase in government expenditures, for example, would tend to increase income.
But with a given money supply this would imply higher interest rates. The resulting flood of
capital flowing into the country would present interest rates from rising, but it would induce a
drop in the foreign exchange rate. The result would be an offsetting deficit in the current account
of the balance of payments. There could be no net change in the level of income and output
unless there was a sympathetic increase in the money supply. With a perfectly elastic net
capital flow function and flexible exchange rates, we are back in the world envisioned by the
classical quantity theorists.
Exchange Rate Expectations. In this analysis of the economics of flexible exchangerates we have ignored what we said earlier was a crucial consideration in international capital
flowsinvestors expectations of future changes in the exchange rate.
Let us consider the case in which an expansionary monetary policy initiates a rise in the
flexible exchange rate. Aside from the assumption about exchange rate expectations, these are
two possibilities. Either the rate is expected to continue to rise, or it is expected to fall back
toward a more normal level.
Expectations of future rises in the exchange rate will induce speculative capital
movements. Capital outflows will increase and capital inflows will be retarded. The impact of the
expansionary monetary policy that initiated the whole process will be accentuated.
If rises in the exchange rate induce expectations of further rises, the whole process
could become cumulative. It should be clear, however, that if a rise in the exchange rate
induces strong expectorations of a continuing rise in the future, there is a serious danger of
severe instability in the foreign exchange market.
Expectations of a continuing rise in the exchange rate will reinforce the impact of
monetary policy in a regime of flexible exchange rates. The opposite is true if the rate is
expected to fall back to normal in the near future.
If a rise in the exchange rate induces expectations of a return to a lower, more normal
level, the effects will be the opposite of those discussed earlier. The rise of the exchange ratewill be damped, and the overall effectiveness of the expansionary monetary policy will be
reduced.
The Controversy Over Flexible Exchange Rate
Considered from the point of view of the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy,
flexible exchange rates appear to have a major advantage over pegged exchange rates. Yet
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flexible exchange rates are anathema to most central bankers (who are charged with the
implementation of monetary policy) and to many economists who specialize in international
financial economics. As a result, proposals for the adoption of a system of flexible exchange
rates are surrounded by sharp controversy. Two main charges are commonly directed against
flexible exchange rates.
Instability and Uncertainty.It is argued that flexible exchange rates are inherently highly
unstable. This amounts to an assumption that the dominant pattern of expectations ; that a
change in the exchange rate will generate expectations of future changes in the same direction.
Flexibility of the exchange rate, it is argued, provides excessive scope of speculators, and their
activities may generate wide and purposeless fluctuations in exchange rates. The experience of
the 1920s and 1930s is commonly cited as evidence that this is a real and serious problem.
Promotion of Nationalist Economic Policies. The second argument is the primary
argument in favor of flexible exchange rates, converted into an argument against flexibility.
Again, the experience of the 1920s and 1930s is invoked in support of an argument that
flexible exchange rates promote nationalist economic policies rather than internationalist
policies. Manipulation of a flexible exchange rate can be used instead of tariffs to protect
domestic industries and, more particularly, to promote production in period of recession. Thus, a
country may use the flexible exchange rate to export its own unemployment problems.
We have seen that a pegged exchange rate can impose severe constraints on domestic
monetary policy as long as the government is determined to maintain the par rate. The choice of
a price level objective is particularly circumscribed. It is increasingly argued that in the
contemporary context worldwide inflation is a serious threat, and that pegged exchange rates
are an essential source of financial discipline on inflation prone national governments. Flexible
exchange rates would remove the discipline. Thus, it is argued, the adoption of flexibleexchange rates would result in an accentuation of inflationary pressure throughout the world. In
effect, this is an argument that national governments cannot be trusted with responsibility for the
formulation of monetary and fiscal policies in the international and, indeed, the national
interest.
The Case for Flexibility. The case for the flexibility is largely an assertion of national
sovereignty in the formulation and implementation of monetary and fiscal policies including the
right to make disastrous mistakes- and the denial of the relevance or validity of each of the
preceding points. Far from disrupting the international economy, it is argued, flexible exchange
rates would further international development by providing an automatic solution to the
international liquidity crises that have periodically beset, at times with devastating effect, thepegged exchange rate system.
First, the relevance of evidence drawn from the experiences of several countries with
flexible exchange rates in the 1920s and 1930s is disputed, largely on grounds of the peculiar
economic and political environment of that time. Indeed, most of the evils commonly ascribed to
flexible exchange rates are asserted to have been a result of attempts to maintain or establish
inappropriate par rates of exchange, or of the social, political, and economic turmoil of the time.
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They could hardly be blamed on the flexibility of exchange rates. The Canadian experience from
1950 to 1962 is commonly cited as evidence that, in an otherwise stable environment,
expectations may tend to stabilize the exchange rate rather than inducing pointless fluctuations
(thus somewhat reducing the effectiveness of a flexible exchange rate as a tool of nationalistic
economic policies). During this period, the Canadians exchange rate was not a harbinger of
inflation and, while flexible, was remarkably stable. Furthermore, there is no evidence tosuggest that by floating its currency Canada restricted its trade.
Indeed, it is argued that proponents of the former international monetary constitution with
fixed exchange rates have the economics of speculation backwards. We have already seen that
the adjustable peg system not only is peculiarly vulnerable to speculation but also tends to incite
speculation. Speculation is turned into a one-way gamble, and as a result the official limits to
exchange rate fluctuations become dams behind which tremendous speculative pressures can
build up. With a flexible exchange rate, by contrast, speculators are faced with greater risks, and
adjustments of the exchange rate in response to small amounts of speculative activity will
quickly remove he basis for continued speculation. Speculation could actually be less intense
than it was under the Bretton Woods system, and such speculation as did occur would performthe desirable economic function of speeding adjustment to new, more appropriate levels of the
exchange rate. Thus, it is argued, speculation is a problem in attempting to maintain stability
under an adjustable peg system, not under a flexible exchange rate system.
The associated proposition that flexible exchange rates increase he uncertainty
surrounding all international investment decisions has also been disputed by proponents of
flexibility. With respect to decision n longer term projects, there can be no certainty regarding
the level of the exchange rate, even under the Bretton Woods type of system. Major
realignments of par rates of exchange occur under that system. A flexible rate system would
simply make the transition to new levels easier. With respect to short-term uncertainty, the
forward exchange mechanism is capable of providing fully adequate hedges against therelevant risks.
Furthermore, it is argued, the pegged exchange rate system was not successful in
preventing countries from pursuing inflationary financial policies if they so chose. All it did was to
associate such policies with periodic financial crises or with direct controls. More fundamentally,
attempts to impose financial discipline from outside are a significant infringement on national
sovereignty. It is a denial of the right of a national government to choose its own policy
objectives.
Thus, proponents of flexible exchange rates argue that a pegged exchange rate system
is the worst of all possible worlds. It does not provide the certainty and the pressure for theinternational integration of economic and financial policies that would follow from immutable
exchange rates, nor does it provide the freedom in domestic policy formation that is associated
with flexible exchange rates. Indeed, it is calculated to maximize policy conflicts and
purposeless speculation.
Conclusions. The economics of flexible exchange rates is a broad topic requiring
historical as well as theoretical and statistical analysis. We have barely scratched the surface.
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However, the important point has been made; Flexible exchanged rates provide a type of
flexibility in domestic policy formation that is absent with a pegged exchange rate system. There
is good reason to believe that flexible exchange rates are variable, but there is strong opinion to
the contrary. In any case, there is little likelihood that a completely flexible exchange rate
system will be adopted. Participating countries are sharply divided at present between returning
to an adjustable pegged exchange rate system and institutionalizing the interim system offlexible exchange rates.
References:
Helen B. O'Bannon, David E. Bond, Ronald A. Shearer, Money and banking: theory, policy, and
institutions, Harper & Row, New York, 1975
http://www.economicsconcepts.com/presentation_of_international_balance_of_payments.htm
http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/ad_as/ad-as_equilibrium.htm
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