the inter-national bio-defense consortium project kenneth berry, md june 2004 gothenburg, sweden the...

The Inter-National Bio-Defense Consortium Project

Kenneth Berry, MD

June 2004

Gothenburg, Sweden

The Inter-National Bio-Defense Consortium Project

Kenneth Berry, MD

June 2004

Gothenburg, Sweden

PREEMPT Systems Proprietary © PREEMPT Systems 2003

© PREEMPT Systems 2002

Nunn-Lugar II / Homeland Security Nunn-Lugar II / Homeland Security

Nonpro-liferation.

Nonpro-liferation.

Interdiction Interdiction Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness

____________________*/_________• Why?

• Treaties ( */ = NBC agent

release )

• Acct. Sys.

• Etc. ( _____ = WMD Timeline )

____________________*/_________• Why?

• Treaties ( */ = NBC agent

release )

• Acct. Sys.

• Etc. ( _____ = WMD Timeline )

Since 9/11, the U.S. government has furthered several strategies to counter domestic WMD (weapons of mass destruction) threats – four of which are:

1. The BioShield Program

2. The BioWatch Program

3. The BioSense & other Syndromic Surveillance Projects

4. Protective Engineering of Buildings

Since 9/11, the U.S. government has furthered several strategies to counter domestic WMD (weapons of mass destruction) threats – four of which are:

1. The BioShield Program

2. The BioWatch Program

3. The BioSense & other Syndromic Surveillance Projects

4. Protective Engineering of Buildings

BioShield is a vaccine development, response, prophylaxis, prevention & R&D program headed by the NIH.

BioWatch is a multiple city multiple agency daily air filter sampling program targeting the top biological agents of concern – funded by DHS.

BioShield is a vaccine development, response, prophylaxis, prevention & R&D program headed by the NIH.

BioWatch is a multiple city multiple agency daily air filter sampling program targeting the top biological agents of concern – funded by DHS.


BioSense (CDC) is one of several “Syndromic Surveillance” Systems – a local &/or nationwide IT data collection & analysis capability tracking human signs and symptoms for early detection of disease outbreaks involving BW (biological weapons) &/or other diseases of concern. ( see U.S. Patent # 6,710,711 )

BioSense (CDC) is one of several “Syndromic Surveillance” Systems – a local &/or nationwide IT data collection & analysis capability tracking human signs and symptoms for early detection of disease outbreaks involving BW (biological weapons) &/or other diseases of concern. ( see U.S. Patent # 6,710,711 )


BIOSENSORS

First phase maturation expected in 2 – 5 years

( see also wwww.darpa. mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/enabtech.html )

( Portal Shield, a US military WMD sensor array system, is already

operational )

BIOSENSORS

First phase maturation expected in 2 – 5 years

( see also wwww.darpa. mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/enabtech.html )

( Portal Shield, a US military WMD sensor array system, is already

operational ) © PREEMPT Systems 2002

http://www.darpa.mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/enabtech.html




Bioterrorism Agents:Laboratory Risk

Agent BSL Laboratory RiskB. anthracis 2 lowY. pestis 2 mediumBrucella spp. 2/3 highF. tularensis 2/3 highBotulinum toxin 2 mediumSmallpox 4 highViral Hemorrhagic fever 4 high


Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness

_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____

Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post Signs & Symptoms [Bio- ( early / late )

Shield ]/ ? 2005 Pres. – 2003 – 2002 Pres. – 2000 20 th C.

BIOWATCH II

(? +/- NBC Project) BIOWATCH

( sensor-based real-time ) ( DHS ) Syndromic & ( 12-36 hour delay ) Surveillance

WMD Building Systems

Protection Project ( delay of days to weeks )

Anthrax Manageable c. 25K +/- 50K 100K Deaths /

5 Million

Pop.

_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____

Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post Signs & Symptoms [Bio- ( early / late )


BIOWATCH II


( sensor-based real-time ) ( DHS ) Syndromic & ( 12-36 hour delay ) Surveillance

WMD Building Systems

Protection Project ( delay of days to weeks )


5 Million

Pop.


Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness

_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____

Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post SSX [Bio- ( early / late )


BIOWATCH II


( DHS ) Syndromic Surveillance

Systems


5 Million

Pop.

_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____

Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post SSX [Bio- ( early / late )


BIOWATCH II


( DHS ) Syndromic Surveillance

Systems


5 Million

Pop.

The Trend The Trend

Imminent upgrades of BIOWATCH

will thus appropriately include nation-wide real-time integrated WMD & environmental sensor capabilities with coordinated

responsesproviding such “acceptable” &

manageable outcomes

Imminent upgrades of BIOWATCH

will thus appropriately include nation-wide real-time integrated WMD & environmental sensor capabilities with coordinated

responsesproviding such “acceptable” &

manageable outcomes PREEMPT Systems

The question then becomes “What is the best and most efficient way to design and

implement such a system? &

How could such a system eventually qualify as SCIENCESCIENCE?”

The question then becomes “What is the best and most efficient way to design and

implement such a system? &

How could such a system eventually qualify as SCIENCESCIENCE?”

PREEMPT Systems

III. The I-NBC ProjectIII. The I-NBC Project


I. WMD Building Projects

( 1* Fixed Sensors Component )

II. GLOBDISS-GBS ( 2* Weather Dep. Mobile Sensors with Advanced M

& S Comp. )

III. The I-NBC Project

( Integrates best Integrates best

aspects of I &aspects of I & II ) II )


Goal: to provide real-time

sensor-based wide area WMD

protection for that population

Goal: to provide real-time

sensor-based wide area WMD

protection for that population

Geo-strategic Buildings ComponentGeo-strategic Buildings Component

PREEMPT Systems

Integrated Geo- Strategic Buildings Component:

Nuc / Bio / Chem / Envir.

External – Internal Sensors / Each Building

Integrated Geo- Strategic Buildings Component:

Nuc / Bio / Chem / Envir.

External – Internal Sensors / Each Building

( + = 1 Building with WMD Protection and “nano-capability”)

( + = 1 Building with WMD Protection and “nano-capability”)


Given geographic area

The WMD Building Component provides multiple independently tested & verified units (buildings) independently and/or collectively available as scientific controls to assess and verify the Advanced M & S ( & other) system(s). It’s inclusion is thus preferred. It could thus also significantly hasten the development of BIOWATCH.

The WMD Building Component provides multiple independently tested & verified units (buildings) independently and/or collectively available as scientific controls to assess and verify the Advanced M & S ( & other) system(s). It’s inclusion is thus preferred. It could thus also significantly hasten the development of BIOWATCH.

PREEMPT Systems

Also, integrated independent “ WMD &

Envir. sensor field units” can be geo-strategically placed where necessary

or advantageous

(tunnel systems, etc.)

Also, integrated independent “ WMD &

Envir. sensor field units” can be geo-strategically placed where necessary

or advantageous

(tunnel systems, etc.)



The M & S Component

The M & S Component

The initial Mod. & Sim. (M & S) function of GLOBDISS involves multiple point & line source NBC agent & concentration dispersion plumes (with resulting human signs & symptoms & the related medical, public health, environmental & other consequence management(CM) needs) - which are stored & analyzed for empirical determination of optimal WMD sensor placement. (Later, this M&S component matures to real-time integration with the real-time WMD sensors distributed in an area thus also providing real-time CM ).

PREEMPT Systems

The initial Mod. & Sim. (M & S) function of GLOBDISS involves multiple point & line source NBC agent & concentration dispersion plumes (with resulting human signs & symptoms & the related medical, public health, environmental & other consequence management(CM) needs) - which are stored & analyzed for empirical determination of optimal WMD sensor placement. (Later, this M&S component matures to real-time integration with the real-time WMD sensors distributed in an area thus also providing real-time CM ).

PREEMPT Systems

PRISM, HPAC &

other modelsother models incorporate:

PRISM, HPAC &

other modelsother models incorporate:

• CBR (NBC) Agents

• Real-time weather

• Terrain data

• Dispersion modeling (physics-based)

• CBR (NBC) Agents

• Real-time weather

• Terrain data

• Dispersion modeling (physics-based)

PREEMPT SystemsPREEMPT Systems

The GLOBDISS Strategy:

“Transversal of All Possibilities” Approach

to Anticipate & Simulate Over 90% of the attack possibilities for a given location(s) in prioritized order (from worst-case to less severe scenarios) - beginning with aerosols of Biological weapons.

The GLOBDISS Strategy:

“Transversal of All Possibilities” Approach

to Anticipate & Simulate Over 90% of the attack possibilities for a given location(s) in prioritized order (from worst-case to less severe scenarios) - beginning with aerosols of Biological weapons.

PREEMPT Systems

PresuppositionsPresuppositions

1. There are a finite number of possibilities of attack for a given target(s).

• Contrary to common wisdom

• Of CRITICAL SIGNIFICANCE !!

2. SSv data must be analyzed and interpreted !

1. There are a finite number of possibilities of attack for a given target(s).

• Contrary to common wisdom

• Of CRITICAL SIGNIFICANCE !!

2. SSv data must be analyzed and interpreted !

PREEMPT Systems

How GLOBDISS OperatesHow GLOBDISS OperatesAir

a] low altitude

b] high altitude

Land

a] Roads (1º, 2º, 3º)

b] Railroads

c] Bridges

d] HazMats

e] Mass gatherings

f] Symbolic entities, etc.

g] Tunnels (not done by GLOBDISS)

Sea

a] Rivers

b] Lakes

c] etc.

Air

a] low altitude

b] high altitude

Land

a] Roads (1º, 2º, 3º)

b] Railroads

c] Bridges

d] HazMats

e] Mass gatherings

f] Symbolic entities, etc.

g] Tunnels (not done by GLOBDISS)

Sea

a] Rivers

b] Lakes

c] etc.PREEMPT Systems

Traversal of All Possibilities Geo-Referencing (& Aerial) Approach to Bio-

Terrorism Defense Methodology

Air, Land, & Sea Approach


Actual subsequent configurations & sensor

locations will be determined empirically by analysis of

multiple simulations over one to three years per given

location using “the traversal-of-all-possibilities”

methodology of the Advanced M & S Component.

Actual subsequent configurations & sensor

locations will be determined empirically by analysis of

multiple simulations over one to three years per given

location using “the traversal-of-all-possibilities”

methodology of the Advanced M & S Component.

PREEMPT Systems

WIND

Mobile Sensors

Fixed Base Sensors


WIND

Mobile Robotic Sensors

Fixed Base Sensors


At a matured phase, the M & S component then functions to interface with real-time data from the external (& int.)sensors providing integrated real-time plume depiction, prediction, & verification - & real-time response & mitigation. This too is testable & verifiable and serves as an advanced redundant scientific control.

At a matured phase, the M & S component then functions to interface with real-time data from the external (& int.)sensors providing integrated real-time plume depiction, prediction, & verification - & real-time response & mitigation. This too is testable & verifiable and serves as an advanced redundant scientific control.

PREEMPT Systems

Such dynamic configurations will prove to be efficient, scientifically validated

&

Will significantly contribute to resolution of the false positives

problem involving sensor systems

Such dynamic configurations will prove to be efficient, scientifically validated

&

Will significantly contribute to resolution of the false positives

problem involving sensor systems

PREEMPT Systems

( Also included in the M & S component is a SSNA tool for improved inclusion of multiple capabilities including insidious and contagious WMD attacks & those not related to PS &/or LS

releases ).

( Also included in the M & S component is a SSNA tool for improved inclusion of multiple capabilities including insidious and contagious WMD attacks & those not related to PS &/or LS

releases ).

PREEMPT Systems

• Nationwide Sensor-based System

• Using combination real-time weather, terrain, dispersion, etc. data with M & S data integrated with fixed base & weather dependent mobile sensor data, etc.

• Nationwide Sensor-based System

• Using combination real-time weather, terrain, dispersion, etc. data with M & S data integrated with fixed base & weather dependent mobile sensor data, etc.


III. I - NBC Project SummaryIII. I - NBC Project Summary


I-NBC Project Results:I-NBC Project Results:

• Large - area Protection

• Sensor-BasedSensor-Based

• Real-Time / Real-Time / Early Warning

• Post Attack / Pre-Exposure /

• “Manageable” Results

• Large - area Protection

• Sensor-BasedSensor-Based

• Real-Time / Real-Time / Early Warning

• Post Attack / Pre-Exposure /

• “Manageable” Results


National Integration of BIOWATCH II

(using NBC Project)

National Integration of BIOWATCH II

(using NBC Project)

I. WMD Building Project(s)

II. GLOBDISS / GBS

III. NBC

C INTERFACING WITH EXISTING EFFORTS :Efforts

2003 – 2004 WMD Building Protection

Strategies (see http://hydra.gsa.gov/pbs

www.cdc.gov/niosh/bldvent/2002

www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2003-136)


http://hydra.gsa.gov/pbs

http://hydra.gsa.gov/pbs

http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/bldvent/2002

U.S. Gov Building Risk Classification ( GSA, DoS, Etc.):

I. Small / Very low risk bldgs.

II.

III.

IV.

V. White House, CIA HQ, etc.

U.S. Gov Building Risk Classification ( GSA, DoS, Etc.):

I. Small / Very low risk bldgs.

II.

III.

IV.

V. White House, CIA HQ, etc.PREEMPT Systems

For new federal buildings, current approaches are favoring* cascaded continuous positive-pressure in conjunction with “whole-building” internal and external continuous filtration using both carbon-based(for chem & radiologic.) & HEPA (for bio, etc.) filtration for the higher ranked / threat assessed buildings.

* National Standards are only in early development phase

For new federal buildings, current approaches are favoring* cascaded continuous positive-pressure in conjunction with “whole-building” internal and external continuous filtration using both carbon-based(for chem & radiologic.) & HEPA (for bio, etc.) filtration for the higher ranked / threat assessed buildings.

* National Standards are only in early development phase PREEMPT Systems

The “new buildings” designers see the forthcoming real-time WMD & environmental sensor component as a future “add-on” to present design specifications - thus affording much improved protection (via real-time warning of attack, etc.).

The “new buildings” designers see the forthcoming real-time WMD & environmental sensor component as a future “add-on” to present design specifications - thus affording much improved protection (via real-time warning of attack, etc.).

PREEMPT Systems

For presently existing buildings (most with negative-pressure design), “add-on” RETRO-FITTINGRETRO-FITTING capabilities do exist which provide real-time protection using WMD & environ. sensors with “on-demand” positive-pressure & other protective modalities.

( see U.S. Patent # 6,293,861 )

For presently existing buildings (most with negative-pressure design), “add-on” RETRO-FITTINGRETRO-FITTING capabilities do exist which provide real-time protection using WMD & environ. sensors with “on-demand” positive-pressure & other protective modalities.

( see U.S. Patent # 6,293,861 )

PREEMPT Systems

By carefully geo-strategically choosing and integrating the locations of these WMD sensor-based building protection & related projects, substantial contribution could be made toward large-area WMD protection.

By carefully geo-strategically choosing and integrating the locations of these WMD sensor-based building protection & related projects, substantial contribution could be made toward large-area WMD protection.

PREEMPT Systems

II. Syndromic Surveillance Efforts


All the major & accepted Syndromic Surveillance (SSv) systems should be

integrated

All the major & accepted Syndromic Surveillance (SSv) systems should be

integrated

PREEMPT Systems

Advanced Syndromic Surveillance• ESSENCE 2• RODS (Univ. of Pitt. – M Wagner et. al)• Bio-Sense, etc.• (NEDSS – more than a SSv System)

• LEADERS (AKA ENCOMPASS )

• EARS• Etc.

Advanced Syndromic Surveillance• ESSENCE 2• RODS (Univ. of Pitt. – M Wagner et. al)• Bio-Sense, etc.• (NEDSS – more than a SSv System)

• LEADERS (AKA ENCOMPASS )

• EARS• Etc.

PREEMPT Systems

Additional Benefits of the I-NBC Project (Possible)

Additional Benefits of the I-NBC Project (Possible)

1. CBR / WMD National & International Security toward global security.

2. Improved Disease Surveillance toward prevention and mitigation of disease.

3. Enhanced Environmental Toxicogenomics toward a cutting-edge molecular genetic real-time understanding of the process of disease via environmental interactions.

4. Etc.

1. CBR / WMD National & International Security toward global security.

2. Improved Disease Surveillance toward prevention and mitigation of disease.

3. Enhanced Environmental Toxicogenomics toward a cutting-edge molecular genetic real-time understanding of the process of disease via environmental interactions.

4. Etc. PREEMPT Systems

The Future ( Phase II )

• Anti-aerosol “bombs”

• Defensive ground (possible) & space-based (? perhaps) remote-sensing capabilities [Dx & Rx]

• Fine-tuned public response capabilities (if needed)

• Real-time integrated LS&F Gov, medical, Public Health, LE, etc. responses

• Etc.

The Future ( Phase II )

• Anti-aerosol “bombs”

• Defensive ground (possible) & space-based (? perhaps) remote-sensing capabilities [Dx & Rx]

• Fine-tuned public response capabilities (if needed)

• Real-time integrated LS&F Gov, medical, Public Health, LE, etc. responses

• Etc. © PREEMPT Systems 2002

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

PREEMPT Systems

By embedding these capabilities with their intrinsic scientific controls (the WMD Building

Projects with / & the Advanced M & S Component), BIOWATCH

could soon evolve into a distinctly scientific capability.

K Berry, MD

By embedding these capabilities with their intrinsic scientific controls (the WMD Building

Projects with / & the Advanced M & S Component), BIOWATCH

could soon evolve into a distinctly scientific capability.

K Berry, MD

PREEMPT Systems Proprietary © PREEMPT Systems 2003

As multiple cities & regions are protected,

national & international systems can be developed via

comprehensive integration strategies

As multiple cities & regions are protected,

national & international systems can be developed via

comprehensive integration strategies

PREEMPT Systems

www.preempt.net

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.preempt.net

[email protected]

[email protected]

PREEMPT Systems

http://www.preempt.net/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.preempt.net/

mailto:[email protected]

the inter-national bio-defense consortium project kenneth berry, md june 2004 gothenburg, sweden the...

Documents

bioshield program

biowatch program

syndromic surveillance

wmd timeline slide

systems proprietary

prevention rd program

biological agents of

bw biological weapons