The Ins and Outs of Measuring Populism

Dr.AndrejZasloveDepartmentofPoli6calScienceRadboudUniversity,Nijmegen

TheNetherlands

Outline of Presentation

1.  Definingpopulism2.  Whyisameasureneeded?3.  Measuringpopulism

1.  Internalvalidity2.  Externalvalidity

4.  NewwineinanoldboOle?:doesitsayanythingnew?5.  Whocares?Whatcanwedowithit?Doesithelpusexplaintherise

ofpopulism?6.  Oneexample:vo6ngleTandrightpopulism7.  Futureresearch

Defining Populism

•  Thin-centeredideology• Cannotstandalone:aOachingideology•  Fourcorecharacteris6cs:

•  Peoplecentered(purepeople)•  An6elite(corruptelite)•  Antagonis6c(Manichean)• Willofthepeople

• CasMudde(2004;2007)

Why thin ideology approach?

• Othersexists;•  Style•  Strategy•  Discourse(idea6onaltoo)

•  Theybringthingsthatthethincenteredideology/idea6onalapproachdonot…

• But….forus•  Travelling(countries,con6nents;ideologies)•  Measuring(pla`orms,speeches;aatudes)

Why is a measure needed?

• PopulismtodatehasbeenmeasuredbyproxyorbyaOachingideology

•  1.trust;sa6sfac6on;efficacy•  2.immigra6on;EUaatudesetc.

• But…thesearenotadirectmeasureofpopulism

Measuring Populism POP1Thepoli,ciansintheDutchParliamentneedtofollowthewillofthepeople.POP2Thepeople,andnotthepoli,cians,shouldmakethemostimportantpoli,caldecisions.POP3Thepoli,caldifferencesbetweentheeliteandthepeoplearelargerthanthedifferencesamongthepeople.

POP4Iwouldratherberepresentedbyanordinaryci,zenthanbyaprofessionalpoli,cian.POP5ElectedofficialstalktoomuchandtaketooliHleac,on.

POP6Whatpeoplecall‘compromise’inpoli,csisreallyjustsellingoutonone’sprinciples.•  Source:Akkerman,A.Mudde,C.Zaslove,A.(2014)andAkkerman,A.,Zaslove,A.,&Spruyt,B.(2017).

Internal Validity

• Conbach’salfa,81(Akkermanetal2017)Netherlands• Conbach’salfa,82(Akkermanetal2014)Netherlands• Cronbach’salf,86(Spruytetal2016)Belgium• Conbach’salfa,88(VanHauwaertandVanKessel,2017);9Europeancountries(France,Germany,Greece,Italy,Poland,Spain,Switzerland,Sweden,UnitedKingdom)

•  SimilarresultsinChile,UnitedStates

Jacobs,Akkerman,Zaslove2016,PaperpreparedfortheECPRGeneralConferenceinPrague(CZ)8-11September2016

Jacobs,Akkerman,Zaslove2016,PaperpreparedfortheECPRGeneralConferenceinPrague(CZ)8-11September2016

External Validity (other concepts)

• Populism;pluralism;eli6sm

AppendixTableA:ResultsoffactorandreliabilityanalysisSource:AkkermanandMudde,2014WethePeopleorWethePeoples?AComparisonofLeT-andRight-WingPopulists,ECPR,Glasgow.

FactorI

Eigenvalue4.21

FactorII

Eigenvalue1.67

FactorIII

1.27Eigenvalue

Item: %squaredloadings(aWerrota,on)Cum.51.05% 29.4% 11.9% 9.1% POP1Thepoli,ciansintheDutchParliamentneedtofollowthewillofthepeople.

.701

Popu

listA

atude

scale

(Chron

bach’sα=0.82)

.275 -.111

POP2Thepeople,andnotpoli,cians,shouldmakeourmostimportantpolicydecisions.

.806 -.061 .206

POP3Thepoli,caldifferencesbetweentheeliteandthepeoplearelargerthanthedifferencesamongthepeople.

.583 .180 .126

POP4Iwouldratherberepresentedbyaci,zenthanbyaspecializedpoli,cian.

.677 -.137 .132

POP5ElectedofficialstalktoomuchandtaketooliHleac,on. .627 .211 .083

POP7Whatpeoplecall‘compromise’inpoli,csisreallyjustsellingoutonone’sprinciples.

.696 -.003 .523

PLU1Inademocracyitisimportanttomakecompromisesamongdifferingviewpoints.

-.131

.795

Pluralist

Aatude

scale

(Chron

bach’

sα=0.63) -.032

PLU2Itisimportanttolistentotheopinionofothergroups. .153 .832 .083

PLU3Freedomdependsondiversity .116 .531 .110 E1Poli,ciansshouldleadratherthanfollowthepeople. -.558 .225 .657

Eli6stAatude

scale

(Chron

bach’sα=0.44)

E2OurcountrywouldbegovernedbeHerifimportantdecisionswereleWuptosuccessfulbusinesspeople.

.112 -.148 .704

E3OurcountrywouldbegovernedbeHerifimportantdecisionswereleWuptoindependentexperts.

.278

.168 .448

POP6Poli,csisul,matelyastrugglebetweengoodandevil. .151 -.050 .430

POP8Interestgroupshavetoomuchinfluenceoverpoli,caldecisions$

.256 .395 .366 Excludedfromsumscale

$leWoutofsumscaleandfurtheranalysisduetoinsufficientloading.

Populism and Trust

Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A., & Spruyt, B. (2017). ‘We the People’or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review.

External Validity (populist parties)

Akkerman,A.,Mudde,C.,&Zaslove,A.(2014).Howpopulistarethepeople?Measuringpopulistaatudesinvoters.Compara'vePoli'calStudies,47(9)p.1339.

NRO2016

Van Hauwaert, S. M., & Van Kessel, S. (2017). Beyond protest and discontent: A cross‐national analysis of the effect of populist attitudes and issue positions on populist party support. European Journal of Political Research, p. 11.

What do we do now? •  Furthermeasurementresearch:•  Differentcontexts•  Distribu6on(extremes)(VanHauwaert,currentlybusyhere)•  Differentscale(LevanteLiOvay)•  Furtherresearchonlinkswithotheraatudes(trust,sa6sfac6on,efficacy)

•  EmpiricalResearch:•  Doesitexplainpopulistvo6ng?•  Characteris6csofpopulists•  Populismanddemocracy•  Personalitycharacteris6csofpopulists•  Howmuchdoespopulismactuallyexplain?

Voting for Populist Parties (left and right)

• WethePeople’or‘WethePeoples’?AComparisonofSupportforthePopulistRadicalRightandPopulistRadicalLeTintheNetherlands.

•  2013WorkandPoli6csSurvey(RadboudUniversity,TheNetherlands)•  Internetsurvey1,005(finalsample)•  Thissampleisrepresenta6veoftheDutchlaborforcewithregardstoage,genderandgeographicregion

•  Akkerman,A.,Zaslove,A.,&Spruyt,B.(2017).‘WethePeople’or‘WethePeoples’?AComparisonofSupportforthePopulistRadicalRightandPopulistRadicalLeTintheNetherlands.SwissPoli'calScienceReview.

Voting for Populist Parties (left and right)

•  Todate:leTandrightpopulistpar6esverydifferent(Rooduijn,2017)• Ortherearesomecommonali6esregardingtrustetc.(Norris,2004)• Perhapsamovementtowardsthedemarca6oncorner(Kriesi,2012)

Voting for Populist Parties (left and right)

• Whatdopopulistpar6eshaveincommon?•  Expecta6ons(voters):•  1.bothwillbepopulist(higheronthepopulistscale)•  2.rightwillbemoreopposeimmigra6on•  3.leTwillfavourincome(economic)equality•  4.trustascontrols:(poli6caltrust,economictrust;lawandordertrust)

Methods

• mul6nomiallogis6cregression• PRRvs.mainstream(PVVvs.mainstream)• PRLvs.mainstream(SPvs.mainstream)• PRRvs.PRL(PVVvs.SP)

•  Fourmodels:• Basemodel;immigra6onmodel;authoritarianmodel;economicmodel

BasemodelPVV-mainstream SP-mainstream PVV-SP(SPref.)

Populistaatude + + N.S.Gender(0=man) N.S. N.S.

N.S.

Age -- --

N.S.

Primaryeduca6on + N.S.

+

Middlesecondary + N.S.

+

Highersecondary N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

Poli6caltrust -- -- --Largeenterprisetrust N.S.

-- +

Law&ordertrust N.S.

+ --

Sa6sfiedwithdem. N.S.

N.S.

N.S.Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A., & Spruyt, B. (2017). ‘We the People’or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right

and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review.

EconomicModel

PVV-mainstream SP-mainstream PVV-SP(SPref.)

Populistaatude + + N.S.

Gender(0=man) N.S. N.S. N.S.

Age -- --

N.S.

Primaryeduca6on + N.S. +

Middlesecondary + N.S. +

Highersecondary N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

Poli6caltrust -- N.S.

--

Largeenterprisetrust N.S.

-- +

Law&ordertrust N.S.

N.S. N.S.

Sa6sfiedwithdemocracy -- N.S.

N.S.

Gov.lesscontrolvs.morecontrolofbusinesses

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

Incomedifferencesmoreequal N.S. + --

Socialbenefitsrestrictedvs.increased N.S.

N.S.

N.S.Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A., & Spruyt, B. (2017). ‘We the People’ or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and

Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review.

ImmigrantModel

PVV-mainstream SP-mainstream PVV-SP(SPref.)

Populistaatude + + N.S.

Gender(0=man) -- -- --

Age -- --

N.S.

Primaryeduca6on + N.S. +

Middlesecondary + N.S. +

Highersecondary N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

Poli6caltrust -- -- --

Largeenterprisetrust N.S.

-- +

Law&ordertrust N.S.

+ --

Sa6sfiedwithdemocracy N.S. N.S.

N.S.

ImmigrantTolerance -- N.S.

--

Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A., & Spruyt, B. (2017). ‘We the People’or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review.

Paper Conclusions •  Populistpar6esareverydifferent:leTandright•  LeTmoreeconomic(butnotthatradical),rightmoreculture•  Alsothemakeupofwhovotesforthe(socio-economiccharacteris6cs)•  Buttheysharepopulists(thosewhoscorehigheronthepopulistscale)• Whatdoesthemeasuredo?Whatcanithelpustoexplain?•  1.thebroaderphenomenonofpopulism(somethinglargergoingon)–somethingaboutdemocracyandrepresenta6on?

•  2.butalsothatthecausesmaybedifferent•  thereissomethinglargergoingon(demarca6on/integra6on)butitisnotclearifthereisasmuchoverlapasisoTenclaimed(aOachingideology)

Way forward • Moredata,frommorecountries(Italyisaprefectcase)•  Ideallymoredatawithsimilarques6ons(rightnowlotsofdatabutitisfragmented)

•  Butwehavetobecareful;whatdoesameasurelikethisaddtothediscussion

• WhyItaly?•  Differenttypesofpopulistpar6es(especiallyFiveStarMovement)•  An6-poli6ca•  Highgeneralpopulistaatudes?

Sources and Work in Progress •  Akkerman,A.Mudde,C.Zaslove,A.(2014)HowPopulistarethePeople?MeasuringPopulistaatudesinVoter.Compara'vePoli'calStudies,47:9,1324-1353.

•  Akkerman,A.,Zaslove,A.,&Spruyt,B.(2017).‘WethePeople’or‘WethePeoples’?AComparisonofSupportforthePopulistRadicalRightandPopulistRadicalLeTintheNetherlands.SwissPoli'calScienceReview.Onlinefirst.

•  Jacobs,K,Akkerman,A.Zaslove,A.(2016)TheVoiceofthePeople?ReferendumPreferences,Prac6ces,andPopulistAatudes,ECPRPrague,underreview.

•  Zaslove,A,Akkerman,A,Geurkink,B.,Jacobs,K.(2017)PopulistCi6zensaatudestowardsDemocracy.Asleepingvolcanowai6ngtoerupt?,ECPR,Oslo.