Challenges for our generation:

The Inevitability of the Green Revolution

Baltic Summer Academy 2010

Guido Reehuis

Who is the guy who is speaking to you?

- Guido Reehuis (1982)- 2000-2005 law school Maastricht- 2002-2006 member of City Council Maastricht- 2006-2008 political assistant to MEP J.M. Wiersma,

Brussels- 2007-2009 member National Board Labour Party- 2008-2009 management consultant public C.G.- 2009- present attorney at law Paulussen Advocaten

Paulussen Lawyers in Maastricht works together with cities, regions and even governments (California, Dutch and Danish governments) to bring about sustainable transition Roger Cox responsible for huge C2C campaign in NL.

Living in a dying era: The Industrial Age

This time of digits and bytes still part of that era

Essentials of the Industrial Age:

• Many of the products based upon oil (iPhones, cars, LED-screens, computers etcetera);

• Total infrastructure based upon fossil energy (coal, oil, gas and uranium);

• Industrial Age can also be called: Fossil Economy

• Legal entity „corporation“ dominates the playing field.

• Benefits: – Life span people doubled in hundred years;– Literacy up from 20% to 90%– New benefits (cars, Iphones, computers etcetera).

Corporations dominate the playing field (information 2008)

Biggest corporation in the world:Royal Shell € 329 billion turnover

= GDP of Norway or Saudi-ArabiaBiggest corporate profit:Exxon € 45 billion profit

= more than double GDP of EstoniaMost employees:Wall Mart 2.1 million employees

= roughly population of Latvia Biggest corporate loss:Fannie Mae € 59 billion loss (5.000 employees)

Multinational corporations and economies

50 of the 100 world’s biggest economies are corporationsSeen economically the world map looks entirely different

In top 10 are no less than 7 oil companies:Shell, Exxon, BP, Chevron, Total, Sinopec and ConocoPhillips

Oil is basis of many products:Fuels; Plastics; Fertilisers; Devices such as telephones and computers;

Chemicals; Tar; Asphalt; Toys; Boats; DVDs; ETCETERA.

And think of transport: =

Oil is the life blood of our Age. Many industries are dependent on the oil industry, which makes it the most impressive economic power in society.

Corporations and states

Olie is being subsidisedFossil economy thrives on oil, oil is therefore direcly and indirectly

being subsidised.

Economic oil policyAccess of oil is of national strategic importance (you need oil for

tanks and for armaments). Therefore every political means is allowed to get access to oil (The Carter Doctrine).

Examples oil policy:- oil wars (Iraq I and II); 1 billion taxpayers money per day- lobby governments in Russia (e.g. Shell and Gasunie) - subsidise oil prices to keep them low (VS, China, India, Indonesië) - tax cuts (globally, US: $ 17.8 billion per year)- protection of oil transports by NATO fleet (Gulf of Aden)

Corporations and states

Huge intertwining between politics and oil companiesAfter liberalisation now re-nationalisation of energy companies (e.g. Yukos in Russia, Shell and Sakhalin, Statoil and Sthokman)

Dependency on oil makes “villain states” and other doubtful countries powerful:

- Angola, Gabon, Nigeria, Iran, - Russia, Egypte, Kazachstan, Turkmenistan, - Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia, Syria, Sudan.

Corporations and states

States also subsidise other oil-related sectors:

Auto industry (building of highways);

Electricity companies (coals and gas induced) (building of network, mandatory access of citizens to this network)

Corporations and states The top 50 of international corporations have bigger economies than 130 countries.

BUT:

Without democratic participation;Are no partner to international treaties;Have no stated responsibility towards society.

C

CONCLUSION 1:

Mega multinationals dominate western states

And

„villain countries“ dominate mega multinationals..

Growing prosperity in the world

1950-2010 Prosperity especially in US, Europe and Japan

1950: world population of 2.5 billion

2010: world population of 6.8 billion

+ increase GWP with factor 8 !! = increase ecological pressure with factor 8

2010-2050Prosperity especially in China, India and Brazil

2050: world population of 9.2 billion (medium prediction)

+ increase GWP with factor 6 !! = increase ecological pressure with factor 6

Challenge 1: This increase of prosperity needs to be fed

The GWP increase is reflected in the need for oil, on which this economy thrives...

We need a lot of oil.. But where from?

FOSSIL FUELS ARE RUNNING OUT

200

150

100

50

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Upper bound for oil reserves

Upper bound for gas reserves

Lower bound for oil reserves

Lower bound for gas reserves

Oil consumption,(4.46 billion tonnes per year)

Gas consumption (2.3 trillion m3 per year)

If oil supply is endangered then:

Economic disruption

or…

WAR!

Challenge 2: Climate change

How does it work?

- Co2 keeps warmth to earth- > Co2 is > temperature- Fossil fuels are important contributor to emissions

Climate changeUnited Nations (IPCC): Human activity causes climate change (> 90% probability)

Causal conncection

Men Climate

Smoking Long cancer

Asbestos Asbestose

Climate change

Earth Human being

Stable 15 degrees 37 degrees

2010 15,8 degrees 39 degreesIn 2030 17 degrees 42 degreesIn 2080 20 degrees 49 degrees

Climate change

17 degrees in 2030 is “dangerous climate change”

Why?Oceans start emission Co2 instead of absorbing itTunndras melt = methans in the air

Consequence: Irrevertible process which leads to accelaration of global warming

International policy: prevent > 2 degrees raise in temp.

Climate changeOne sign of many: local freak storms in NL and elsewhere in Europe

Effects for people in Baltic area:• More storms, resulting in storm surges and much coastal erosion• Increase in extreme precipitation events, droughts, heat waves and increased frequency of floods• risk of extreme (river) floods• Great sea level rise and coastal flooding in the Baltic region• Pest and tropical diseases will increase• No more holidays in the south (Italy, Spain, Greece): temperatures above comfort zone, water scarcity, droughts, forest fires, desertification, decreasing agricultural productivity, coastal flooding and loss of biodiversity

• POSITIVE EFFECT: BALTIC WILL BECOME NEW RIVIERA!

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD IT WILL CAUSE EVEN MORE POVERTY, MISERY AND MASS IMMIGRATION BECAUSE OF SEA RISE IN DELTAS SUCH AS BANGLADESH

And if that wasn’t enough already..Some other consequences of our global fossil economy:

•US economy: 100 billion raw materials waste 90% = 1 ton waste p.p/ p. yr.

• Biodiversity threatened because of „Monsanto practises“

• 90% of electronic consumer goods (computers etc.) landfills + water: „plastic ocean“

• > 20% of world population no reliable access to clean drinking water;

• > 70% of world’s fisheries chronically overfished fish species will become extinct;

• Forests are being razed down contributes to greenhouse effect.

Conclusion two:

this is a economy of death which cannot last forever.

Either we will bring about change ourselves, and make this indeed an inevitable revolution

or the change is brought upon us by gruesome and deadly force.

In any case: the Industrial Age is dying and will come to its last breath.

HELP!!!!!! Who is going to save us?! The corporation?

(according to neo-liberals it will bring about innovation and find a way out).

What is a corporation actually?

• an essential part of fossil system, of this Industrial Age. • Formed after 1865, 14th Amendment to Constitution, originally meant to protect

freed slaves from Southern States;• Is, according to law, a legal person, with one difference: no moral conscience;• By law required to make short term profit for shareholders, without any regard for

other stakeholders.  The corporation as a psychopath (DSM IV “The Corporation” (see movie)

The corporation is a rational acting machine?

What is the link between:

-      IG Farben (AEG, BASF), Coca Cola and IBM?-       Monsanto and modern slavery?

-       Shell and surpressed Nigerian villages?-       BP in the Mexican Gulf?

Financial crisis showed that corporations, by acting short-term, are not rational actors in this process but in fact contribute actively to their own suicide.

AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT:

HELP!!! Who is going to save us? Politics??

• Political party system under pressure: declining membership = declining legitimacy;

• Most politicians are forced (by media) to act like corporations: only short-term gains and successes;

• No sense of urgency because too much conformist thinking (inside the bubble)

And: Political parties as we know them now won‘t

exist in about twenty years (including yours!)

Who is going to change this? YOU ARE!

Needed: Shift from economic globalisation to economic regionalisation, while keeping intact social globalisation (internet, freedom of speech, social contacts etc).

Revolution into the Solar Age:C2C

• Waste equals food• Use current solar income• Respect diversity/locality

Cradle to Cradle Look at Nature

Waste equals food

Use current solar income

Respect diversity/locality

Current economy: Cradle to Grave

Take-make-waste-economy

New economy: Cradle to Cradle

Products designed for disassembly

A buildingas a tree

Absorbs Co2Creates energy

Clears the airHolds the water

Creates biotopeBetter inner climate

ModularyRecycling

Conclusion 3

Linear short-term thinking no solution for the future (current corporate and political thinking)

Einstein: the world will not evolve past its current state of crisis by using the same thinking that created the situation

Circulary and holistic thinking has the future

The whole presentation on negative effects was meant to show that these all are linked together. To change things one has to move from symptomatic solutions (e.g. cleaning one part of a river) to system change.

E.g. : climate change agricultural damage food riots

What can government do?

Like Industrial Age, the government (quite literally: the people’s government) can:

• stimulate sustainable energy (feed-in tariffs)• cut subsidies to fossil energy companies• give those tax breaks to solar and wind energy.

Further, the government can:

Finance research and development of sustainable energy (e.g. storing electricity);Make possible pilot projects;Make possible free rule experimental zones;Influence international politics (as EU);Develop managementinstruments (internalising external costs of products);Institutionalise sustainability.

Regaining the primacy of democratic states (and politics within)

Are elected politicians still souvereign?

1. Villain states2. Mega Multinationals3. Lobbyists4. Media5. Civil servants6. Elected politicians7. Consultancy bureaus

And what about the EU?

Souvereign means the ability to say NO.

Regaining primacy of politics

The power of saying no to the fossil economy also means the power of saying yes to a whole new system.

Which is nothing less than a revolution.

For a revolution you need full public support.

Therefore: awareness of the challenges within the public is paramount

Role politics in revolutionary times

First: inform yourself, ask the difficult questions

Second: inform the public, make them your ally shrugging of your partisan colours. Either socialist or conservative, it really does not make a difference if we drown.

Impossible to attain the support of the public?Many initiatives show that people indeed want to contribute, if you

it the right way (Let’s do It initiative)

But you need vision!Scare the hell out of people, but also show them perspective!

So, the question really is..

WHAT WILL YOU DO?

Debate..

Closing remarks: THE NEED FOR MORAL COURAGE

Thank you.