the increasing threat of turbulence · the increasing threat of turbulence moderator: o captain...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of Turbulence
Moderator:o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency,
IATA
Panelists:o Richard Niland, Senior Flight Operations Engineer &
EFB Administrator, Aer Lingus o Captain Rich Terry, Managing Director of Line
Operations, Delta Air Lines o Katya Vashchankova, Head MET Program, IATAo Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science,
Reading University
![Page 2: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of Turbulence
Captain Brent King
Head, Flight Operations Efficiency
![Page 3: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of TurbulencePaul WilliamsProfessor of Atmospheric Science, Reading University
![Page 4: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of Turbulence
Is climate change increasing turbulence?
Professor Paul D. Williams, Ph.D.
University of Reading, UK
![Page 5: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
FAA
(200
6)
1982 2003
Number of serious injuries (including fatalities) caused by turbulence, per million flight departures (US carriers)
![Page 6: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Tvar
yana
s(2
003)
Number of flight attendant injuries caused by turbulence, per million hours flown (US carriers)
![Page 7: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Wind shear in the North Atlantic flight corridor at FL350
Lee, Williams, and Frame (forthcoming)
![Page 8: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Williams & Joshi (2013)
100%
0%
Number of clear-air turbulence models projecting an increase in the North Atlantic from climate change
![Page 9: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
“Slight strain against seatbelts; unsecured objects maybe displaced slightly; foodservice may be conductedwith little difficulty walking”
“Definite strain againstseat belts; unsecuredobjects are dislodged;food service andwalking are difficult”
“Occupants are forcedviolently against seat belts;unsecured objects aretossed about; food serviceand walking are impossible”
59%(43-68%)
75%(39-96%)
94%(37-118%)
127%(30-170%)
149%(36-188%)
Williams (2017)
![Page 10: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Storer, Williams & Joshi (2017)
Projected change in amount of clear-air turbulence globally by 2050–2080
![Page 11: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/berkshire/7654768.stm
![Page 13: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of TurbulenceKatya VashchankovaHead MET Program,IATA
![Page 14: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Turbulence Data Sharing Project
Katya Vashchankova
Head, IATA Met Program
![Page 15: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR)ICAO Annex 3 metric for turbulence
Measuring the state of the atmosphere around the aircraft in flight
Aircraft independent absolute value
Simple software installation, no hardware required to calculate EDR
76
![Page 16: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How can your airline implement EDR reporting capability?
81
• OEM/Avionics solution
providers (e.g. customization
of existing ACMS/AHM)
• EFB application via AID
• Onboard wi-fi server
• IATA Turbulence Reporting Guidelines
![Page 19: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Airlines requested IATA to be a global data consolidator
Existing turbulence data is often not shared
Airlines need to see beyond their own data to mitigate turbulence
Fragmented data pools
limit benefits
Importance of global data
coverage
![Page 20: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
IATA Turbulence Aware
• Data is collected from airlines,
business aviation or third party
ground servers in real-time
• Data is consolidated, quality
controlled and de-identified
• Data processing through the
platform is max 30 sec
• Airlines can use their own flight
planning and in-flight tools to
display the data, or use IATA
Turbulence Aware viewer in-
flight via Wi-Fi
A global platform for sharing automated EDR turbulence reports in real time
![Page 21: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Current Turbulence Aware Viewer Features
84
![Page 22: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Current Turbulence Aware Viewer Features
85
![Page 23: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Benefits of data driven turbulence mitigation
• Improved safety outcomes
• Efficient fuel planning and reduced discretionary uplift
• Inflight flight level optimization
• Saving on engineering inspection requirements
• Enhanced customer experience and brand image
86
![Page 24: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Highly collaborative development with airlines
87
![Page 25: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Platform Implementation Timeframe
Feb 2019 - Dec 2019: Operational trials available to Airlines for evaluation and feedback
Jan 2020: Full launch
88
![Page 26: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Any questions on how to adopt a turbulence data reporting capability or obtain access to IATA’s Turbulence Aware Data platform, please contact;
www.iata.org
89
![Page 27: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of TurbulenceRichard NilandSenior Flight Operations Engineer & EFB Administrator, Aer Lingus
![Page 28: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Richard Niland
Senior Flight Operations Engineer / EFB Administrator
IATA Turbulence Aware- An EFB Approach
![Page 29: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
92
Aer Lingus Fleet
• A320 x 34
• A321 x 3
• A330-200 x 5
• A330-300 x 8
![Page 30: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
93
IATA Turbulence Aware
• Improve Safety• Minimise encounters• Minimise effect of encounters
• Cabin crew injuries
• Improve Passenger Comfort
![Page 31: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
94
EFB Based
Approach
EFB Device
Wi Fi
EFB Device
-
Traditional
Approach
Avionics
ACARS
?
Participation Strategy
Compute
Communicate
Use
![Page 32: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
95
System Overview
Normalise Validate Store Anonymise WriteRead
ARINC / SITA
Type B
Airline Ops
Centres
Airline /
Authorised
Agent
System
Met Viewer
![Page 33: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
96
System Overview
IATA Data Repository
ARINC / SITA
Type B
Airline Ops
Centres
Airline /
Authorised
Agent
System
Met Viewer
![Page 34: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
97
Aer Lingus EFB system
• Surface Pro devices• Aircraft attached • Power and data connection• navAero hardware
• Primary Applications• Flight log• Performance• A/C Library• Charting
• Airport Moving Map
• Wi-Fi Connection• Dedicated network• Isolated from passenger use
![Page 35: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
98
Aircraft Interface Device
• Mounted in Avionics bay• Data Connections
• Navigation data• Position, speed & orientation data• Aircraft & sector information• Discretes
![Page 36: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
99
EDR Calculation
• Mechanism• 6 inputs
• Speed• Angle of Attack• Pitch• Pitch Rate• Roll• Vertical Velocity
• 8 times per second• Single EDR result per minute
8/sec60 sec0.02165
![Page 37: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
100
EDR Calculation
• Open Source Software• National Centre Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Smooth conditions
• Reports ‘heartbeat’• Turbulence encounter
• Reports series of data points
• Aer Lingus ‘in-house’ host software• No crew interaction• Automatic
• Provides data to calculation engine• Transmits outputs to IATA repository
![Page 38: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
101
Turbulence Reports Display
![Page 39: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
102
Turbulence Reports Display
![Page 40: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
103
Turbulence Reports Display
![Page 41: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
104
Why use this approach?
• Cost Effective• No budget• No avionics software updates required• All work in-house• Reduced data transmission costs
• WiFi v ACARS
• Use of existing infrastructure• Adaptable
• All aspects easily customisable
![Page 42: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
105
Why use this approach?
• Airlines with a similar EFB system• May allow effective, low cost participation in IATA initiative
• Commercial software solutions may become available• Leverage greater return on investment from existing system
• Airlines considering an AID based EFB• Additional functionality• Improved business case
• Join the IATA initiative!
![Page 43: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Thank you
![Page 44: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
The Increasing Threat of TurbulenceCaptain Rich TerryManaging Director of Line Operations, Delta Air Lines
![Page 45: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Delta Air Lines
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
Mitigating the threat of
turbulence
![Page 46: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Outline
• Turbulence reporting today• What is EDR? - Capturing the Atmospheric State• First Evolution: objective turbulence reporting• Second Evolution: turbulence forecasting• Delta’s Flight Weather Viewer• Realized benefits• Vision for the future
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
![Page 47: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Turbulence Reporting Today
An Antiquated Process
– PIREPs – Turbulence Plots– Informal reports: ATC “Chat Room” – Subjectivity/Inaccuracy: time, space, severity– Mitigating a risk that is not clearly defined
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
![Page 48: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Objectively Capturing the Atmospheric State
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
The Eddy Dissipation Rate(EDR) takes data from the aircraft to
describe the underlying ATMOSPHERIC STATE
• Objective• Normalized • Usable
BUT….not all EDR metrics are equal
![Page 49: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
EDR MODELS
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
Vertical
Accelerometer
(A/C)
TAS-based
Vertical Wind
(NCAR EDR)
NCAR-derived
(Proprietary) iPad
Accelerometer
Open-source✓
Objective✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Describes atmospheric state ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Open to study,Correlation ✓
# Parameters 1 or 2 1 7 7 1 or 2
![Page 50: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
1ST Evolution – Turbulence Reporting
STRENGTH
• Objective• Reliable – 4D• Timely• Usable across work
groups
WEAKNESS
• Reactive
![Page 51: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
2nd Evolution – Turbulence Forecasting
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
Combine EDR with Advanced Open Source Forecasting Models
• NCAR GTG -3• NCAR GTG – NOWCAST(up to the minute updates)• Radar• Satellite• Government provided weather models
![Page 52: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Near-real-time “NowCast” from NCAR
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
KSGF
KMEM
KSGF KMEM
Jet stream converges with Herman rotation
![Page 53: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Delta’s FWV Harnesses Big Data
Harnessing Big data to tell a relevant story• Our data=Open
Source• Gov’t MET
products• Quiet Dark Cockpit
– Deliver threats– Standardized
presentation– Alerting
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
![Page 54: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Delta Air Lines’ example of operational data use
» Injuries avoided due to use of real-time turbulence data
• Captain chose to rely on turbulence data and secure the cabin despite a smooth ride report from ATC and PIREPs
• Aircraft subsequently flew through moderate turbulence
• Several unsecured items were tossed about. However no injuries to passengers or cabin crew occurred
![Page 55: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Present State/Realized benefits• Delta’s Current State
– Threat Based Weather App launched in 2016– Flight Weather Viewer Plus – (Nowcast) in 2017– iPad development – Global product Launched June 5,2018
• Realized benefits– Safety (Greater Awareness of upcoming threats)– Efficiency/Emissions– Passenger Experience (setting expectations)– Moderate/Severe encounter reduction (independent EDR
study)
Delta Air Lines Proprietary & Confidential
![Page 56: The Increasing Threat of Turbulence · The Increasing Threat of Turbulence Moderator: o Captain Brent King, Head, Flight Operations Efficiency, IATA Panelists: o Richard Niland, Senior](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043007/5f927ecb3adbb4342f32f358/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Data Sharing RequirementsTurbulence Reports (Micro) Accessible/Usable by all?
Open-source turbulence reports ✓
Proprietary turbulence reports that have been openly correlated ✓
Proprietary that cannot be correlated X
Turbulence forecasting (Macro) Accessible/Usable by all?
Aggregated, shared data -> Open-source gov’t met product -> Any Interface/Viewer ✓
Aggregated, shared data -> proprietary products -> pay for value added by our data X
EVERYONE’S DATA, ACCESSIBLE AND USABLE BY ALL ON APPS THAT EACH USER CAN CHOOSE