Methods and Approaches in Environmental StudiesThe Importance of Scale in Coupled Natural-Human Systems Research

Complexities of Spatial Scale

• Spatial scale–patterns, trends and correlations can look one way at a local scale and another way at a national scale. Examples…

• data may show forest loss in PNW but increasing forest cover nationally

• U.S. GDP may be on the rise, but declining in rural communities)

Complexities of Temporal Scale

• Temporal scale–longitudinal data may reveal different patterns, trends or correlations depending on the length of time observed. Examples…

• Measuring ppm CO2 in atmosphere between March and Aug, one would conclude CO2 is declining

• Measuring the correlation between college degrees and employability from 1950-present, one would conclude that a college education is a guarantee of a job. Between 2009 and the present the correlation weakens.

Biocomplexity

• Physical and social (i.e., socioecological or coupled human-natural) systems operate and interact in non-linear and often unpredictable ways.

Planetary Boundaries

The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded.

from “A safe operating space for humanity,” Rockström et al., Nature 461, 472-475 (24 September 2009)!!

Climate-Development Vulnerability Index (CDVI)

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Cumulative CO2 emissions and HDI

In the last 40 years, improvements in human well-being have been mostly driven by increasing GDPs which have consistently carried increases in CO2 !Continuing on this path requires reducing carbon intensity of economies

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kg CO2 per 2005 PPP $US and GDP

All of the easy efficiency gains have been realized

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Understanding Modeling:!An Alternative Development Path?

Source: adapted from Munasinghe 1995a (also see http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/155728/)

Modeling Tunneling Through…• What would it look like?

• What would be the geographical scale?

• Over what timeframe?

• What other “drivers” (i.e., variables) need to be included in the model?

• Socioeconomic inequality?

• Economic dependency on resource extraction?

• GDP% from exports?

• Proximity to markets?

• cultural orientation toward technological solutions?

Inequality across the globe

• "Our estimates suggest that the lower half of the global population possesses barely 1% of global wealth, while the richest 10% of adults own 86% of all wealth, and the top 1% account for 46% of the total."From Oxfam report “Working for the Few: Political Capture and Economic Inequality” (PDF)

Social World-Biophysical World CommunicationECOLOGICAL PROCESSES Water and air purification Drought and flood mitigation Decomposition and detoxification of wastes Generation and renewal of fertile soil Pollination Seed dispersal and translocation of nutrients Maintenance of biodiversity Protection from UV rays Climate stability Moderation of extremes (e.g., temp., waves, wind) (Daily 1997)

SOCIAL LIFE PROCESSES Cultural beliefs

Technology

Material culture

Value systems

Economic systems

Political systems

Social institutions

Self-concept

Socialization

Social control

Social structure

Social Life Processes

Ecological Processes

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Linking Theory and Research

• Deduction - deriving expectations or hypotheses from theories.

• Induction - developing generalizations from specific observations.

THEORY

GENERALIZATIONS

OBSERVATIONS

HYPOTHESES

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