the importance of integration of subsurface with surface facilities design
TRANSCRIPT
The importance of integration of subsurface with surface facilities design
John Harley, Regional Director INTECSEA Consulting
David Gorsuch, Technical Director OPC
WorleyParsons Structure
A
C
E
F
Major Engineering
Project Delivery
Strong FEL technical team Deepwater SURF Topsides Facilities Floating Solutions FA CAPEX Offshore commissioning Decommissioning (Aberdeen)
Regulations, consents and licences UK energy market, including market reforms Energy industry policy Proven successful relationships with Governments,
including DECC Transaction Services
North Sea Fabrication
Subsea & Topside
modules
WorleyParsons Group and Friends
Major Engineering
Project Delivery
Strong FEL technical team Deepwater SURF Topsides Facilities Floating Solutions FA CAPEX Offshore commissioning Decommissioning (Aberdeen)
Regulations, consents and licences UK energy market, including market reforms Energy industry policy Proven successful relationships with Governments,
including DECC Transaction Services
North Sea Fabrication
Subsea & Topside
modules
35,000
150
44
R 2 M
What is Value?
Value - Defined as “The material or monetary worth of something”. Maximum Value - the correct development, chosen first time,
right-sized
Inefficiency – Defined as “the magnitude of the value that can be lost” Risks not clearly identified and resolved
Value Destruction – an example
200 MMbbl of recoverable oil
No sales gas product
1200 m water depth
Fast track project (36 months to first oil)
25 year production life
Oil price of $100/bbl
Inflation at 2.5%
200 MMbbl of recoverable oil
No sales gas product
1200 m water depth
Fast track project (36 months to first oil)
25 year production life
Oil price of $100/bbl
Inflation at 2.5%
Initial production plateau not achieved Only 65% of intended production for 3 years
Production Profile
Same total oil recovered, but slower rate of recovery
Pre-Tax NPV
Missed Plateau Value Impact
Original FDP Missed Plateau
NPV, MM$ 4,074 3,621
Delta, MM$ - -453
Delta, % - -11.1%
IRR, % 22% 20%
Additional Production and Water Injector wells needed after only 2 years of operation
CAPEX required for drilling, equipment procurement and installation. (Loss of production during installation/hook-up/commissioning is ignored)
Additional Wells Value Impact
Original FDP Missed Plateau Extra Wells
DRILLEX, MM$ 1,600 1,600 2,400
CAPEX, MM$ 3,220 3,220 4,220
Total, MM$ 4,820 4,820 6,620
Delta, % - 0% +37%
Pre-Tax NPV severely eroded
IRRs remain attractive(IRR by itself is not a reliable indicator of good/bad project)
Value Impact
Original FDP Missed Plateau Extra Wells
NPV, MM$ 4,074 3,621 2,075
Delta, MM$ - -453 -2,000
Delta, % - -11.1% -55.2%
IRR, % 22% 20% 16%
Value Protection
FR
AM
ING
EV
AL
UA
TE
Integrated Production Modelling
Cost/ Schedule
Economic modelling
AU
DIT
RE
SE
RV
ES
FIN
DIN
GS
All
CR
ED
IBL
E O
PT
ION
S
Prospect Metrics
Economic Profile
Current Risk Level
Understand commitments
Business Plan
Comparative life cycle costs
New Business plan
Exit strategy
DSP
ANALYSE
Current Plan FID
RECOMMENDVISUALISEDrivers
AU
DIT
FD
P
If needed
DecisionSupportPackage
StrategicBusinessDrivers Non-Tech Risks
Oilfield Production Consultants (OPC)The OPC-Worley Parsons INTECSEA partnership
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Who are OPC? We are a specialist supplier of subsurface engineering, geosciences and production technology expertise globally for over 25 years. OPC offices – London, Aberdeen, Stavanger, Houston, Astana, Doha & Basra.
The strategic partnership with INTECSEA /WorleyParsons is designed to allow proper integration of predictions of the behaviour of the sub-surface with surface facilities design.
Our aim – a fully integrated Reservoir to Market (R2M) full field development planning platform
Integrating reservoir understanding (OPC Group)… with surface facilities design (WorleyParsons Group)
Oilfield Production Consultants (OPC)The value of the partnership
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The importance of integration of subsurface with surface facilities design
Communication – passing the right information at the right time and using the right vocabulary.
Management of uncertainty – designing for robustness not optimisation Front-end loading of facilities design – ensuring all the appropriate
options are considered.
Optimal FDP
Oilfield Production Consultants (OPC)Low Oil Price Scenario (LOPS) planning
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Adapting to a new world…
Many plans developed in the context of $100 oil no longer make sense. Assets still need to be monetised and revenue needs to be generated. In
many cases, this is still possible but requires a fresh look at the development.
OPC and INTECSEA/WorleyParsons can help companies to carry out Prospect Re-framing (PReF) by stepping back and taking a completely new, holistic view of developments against the backdrop of… $50 oil Low appetite for risk
Thank you
David GorsuchTechnical Director
Oilfield Production Consultants (OPC) Ltd1-2 Apollo Studios, Charlton Kin’s Road,London NW5 2SB
Mob: +44 (0)7585 770455Tel: +44 (0)20 7428 1111e-mail: [email protected] ww.opc.co.uk
John HarleyRegional Director Consulting
Lansbury Estate102 Lower Guildford Road, Surrey, GU21 2EPDirect: +44 (0) 1483 878 504Mobile: +44 (0) 7760 669 [email protected]