The Importance of Demand Forecasting in Planning and Production Control (PPC) 

The path to be taken by organizations in relation to its Planning and Production Control (PPC), inevitably the demand forecast, is a productive process of goods, products or services. Tubino (2009) defines two moments in the use of forecasts in the CFP: to plan the productive system and to plan the use of this production system. 

The proper provision allows manufacturing engineers to anticipate future situations in their planning of production processes and take actions to better meet organizational goals. The actions developed by the PCP has its startup through the forecast, which directly affects the expected performance of its functions of planning and control of production systems. 

To develop the actions of the PCP path passes through the Information Technology (IT), as can be seen in the article Studying the use of IT in the CFP, available at , which discusses the use of IT in production processes. The objective of this approach is to highlight the importance of forecasting demand for PCP, the demand forecast is structured as follows: The goal of the model, data collection and analysis, selection of forecasting techniques, obtaining forecasts and monitoring model, after implantation of the last stage back to the first, ie the monitoring of the model should lead to the analysis of previous phases. 

The factors that contribute to the choice of technique analysis are: data availability, past experience with implementation of certain technique, availability of time to collect to collect, analyze and prepare data for forecasting, planning period for which you need the forecast. 

The assumptions for forecasting techniques are common: It is assumed that the causes influencing the demand will continue to act passed in the future, the forecasts are not perfect, because you can not predict random variations occurred; forecasts for product group is Safer than for individual products. Forecasting techniques can be divided into qualitative and quantitative. 

Forecasts based on time series, is one of the most widely used, it is the data passed to make future predictions, the fact is that this method does not consider exogenous variables in the production process with the data demands that occurred in past periods. 

Some of the techniques for the predictions considering the time series are: the average forecasting technique, techniques for forecasting the trend of seasonal forecasting techniques, forecasts based on correlation and the maintenance and monitoring of the model, and in this last procedure is the analysis feeita especially regarding the efficiency of prediction, especially to check if the method is suitable for predicting the behavior of the demand analysis. 

It is possible by measuring the error between forecast and actual demand, ie, by monitoring the prediction results generated by using a method of forecasting,to the data generated by the forecast are as secure as possible is done to interpretation of results, this is accomplished through the analysis of errors in forecasting demand for real. 

Source: TUBINO, Dalvio Ferrari. Production Planning and Control, Theory and Practice. São Paulo, 2009, Atlas. 

PARA COMENTAR.....: RESPONDA AS QUESTÕES ( DE ACORDO COM O TEXTO) 1. QUAL O ASSUNTO TRATADO NO TEXTO EM RELAÇÃO A PCP? 2. QUAL A SEQUENCIA DO MODELO DE PREVISÃO? 

3. BASEADO NO ESTUDO DO QUE É FEITO A PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA? 4. QUAL A CRITICA EM RELAÇÃO A ESTE TIPO DE ESTUDO? 5. QUAL É A PRINCIPAL IMPORTANCIA DA PREVISÃO PARA A PRODUÇÃO?