the impact of tropical cyclones on weather … apts ppt final/membe… · tc anggrek. tc durga. tc...
TRANSCRIPT
2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS)Lessons Learned from Disastrous TyphoonsManila-Philippines, 24 – 25 NOVEMBER 2015
BMKG
THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NATURAL DISASTERS
IN INDONESIA
OUTLINE
• Weather Systems in Indonesia• Climatology of TC Near Indonesia• The Impact of Northern/Southern
Hemisphere TC Over Indonesia
Monsoon
El Nino / La NinaDipole Mode MJO, Kelvin, Rossby
Cold Surge
ITCZ
TC
WEATHER SYSTEMS IN INDONESIA
TC
TC
BMKG
FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL >19 mm/day (2001-2012)Wet Season Dry Season
Source Data; TRMM-3b42rt
BMKG
BMKG
BMKG
Average Number of TCs Near Indonesia
Update 22 Nov 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUN JUL AGS SEP OKT NOV DES
Jum
lah
Sikl
on T
ro
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Rata
-rat
a Si
klo
JUMLAH AVERAGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUN JUL AGS SEP OKT NOV DES
Jum
lah
Sikl
on T
ro
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Rata
-rat
a Si
klo
TOTALAVERAGE
Number of TCs inside AoM of Jakarta TCWC
10
14
2124
17 17
69
68
4 5
16
23
27
32
21 22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NORTHERN
SOUTHERN
TOTAL
1984 - 2015
1977 - 2015
Since 2007, 3 TCs were developed inside Jakarta TCWC AoR :
Tropical Cyclone PERIOD
DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008
ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010
BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014
Tropical Cyclone PERIOD
DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008
ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010
BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014
TC Anggrek
TC Durga
TC Bakung
Cases @ TY KOPPU and CHAMPI(11-25 Oct 2015)
Average of Streamline 925 mb(1980-2010)
Climatologically mean pattern of streamline 925mb compared to cases of TY Koppu and Champi period (11-25 Oct 2015).
The shaded colour show the value of low level divergence which represents the possibility of less convectivity.
The presence of TCs in Northern Hemisphere could strengthen and make broader of dry area in southern part of Indonesia, but in several places in northern part could develop signifikan weather.
TC DURGA22 – 24 April 2008
23 April 2008, 00 UTC
01 Nov 2010, 00 UTCTC ANGGREK
29 Sep – 04 Nov. 2010
TC BAKUNG11 – 13 December 2014
12 Dec 2014, 00 UTC
12 Dec 2014
TC Anggrek
TC Durga
TC Bakung
Average of Streamline, Convergence, & Wind SpeedIn Cases of TC Durga, Anggrek, & Bakung
BMKG
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN
Track map of TC Gillian(March 2014)
Wave height map at TC Gillianevent (18 March 2014)
BMKG
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRRILY
The occurrences of TC in southern hemisphere, especially in southern or western part of Australia could strengthen the ITCZ which passing Indonesian Region, so that high rainfall, high wind and extreme wave heights could be happen.
When TC develop in northern hemisphere near Indonesia, it could strengthen dry area in southern part of Indonesia and sometimes develop a potential of severe weather in several places in northern part.
BMKG
