the impact of state level building codes on residential electricity consumption anin aroonruengsawat...
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THE IMPACT OF STATE LEVEL BUILDING CODES THE IMPACT OF STATE LEVEL BUILDING CODES ON RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONON RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
Anin Aroonruengsawat Anin Aroonruengsawat UC Berkeley, ARE
Maximilian AuffhammerMaximilian AuffhammerUC Berkeley, ARE/IAS
Alan H. SanstadAlan H. SanstadLBNL
National Per Capita Consumption of National Per Capita Consumption of Total Energy Has Been Flat since 1970Total Energy Has Been Flat since 1970
Residential Per Capita Consumption of Residential Per Capita Consumption of Total Energy Flat since 1970Total Energy Flat since 1970
Growth of Residential Per Capita Growth of Residential Per Capita Consumption of Electricity has SlowedConsumption of Electricity has Slowed
……In States With and Without Significant In States With and Without Significant RegulationRegulation
Policies are thought to matterPolicies are thought to matter
Technology-focused Efficiency and COTechnology-focused Efficiency and CO22 Potential StudiesPotential Studies
• “Bottom-up” engineering economics methodology – First appeared 1970s– Studies recently emerging at an accelerated rate,
and gaining increasing attention– e.g., McKinsey study
• Traditional point-of-contention is the claim of sizable zero or negative cost energy and/or carbon reduction
Are potential studies overly Are potential studies overly optimistic?optimistic?
• Varying degrees of enforcement on site.• Ex-Post Modifications by end-users• If these improvements are free or have a
positive return, why don’t households build the “correct” house?
Building codes are technical or performance standards, which may not achieve savings at least cost.
Ex-Post Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Ex-Post Evaluation of Energy Efficiency ProgramsPrograms
• Aggregate (national scale) studies are few, but do exist– Gillingham et al. (2006) estimated about 5% reduction in
national primary consumption as of 2000 due to cumulative effects of all policies and programs, local, state, and federal
– Geller (1995, ACEEE)– Jones, Norland and Prindle (1990, ASE)
• Econometric Studies:– Jaffe and Stavins (1995, JEEM)– Everyone speaking today.
Research QuestionResearch Question
How effective were state-level building codes at reducing residential electricity consumption?
History of Residential Building Codes
• Fuel-oil, gas and electricity shortages in the winter 1972/73.
• Closing of schools, industry and government offices created demand for regulation.
• NCSBCS asked NBS to develop set of standards states could use.
• August 1975 ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers) Code 90-1975
• Revisions until 1995 known as the Model Energy Code (MEC)
• Current: International Energy Conservation Codes (IECC)• California: Title 24 of 1978
California
Texas
MANDATORY STATE BUILDING CODES1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
AK
AL
AR 1977 MCEC 1992 MEC
AZ
CA original Title 24 revised revised & expanded major revision minor revision minor revision
CO
CT
DE 1977 MCEC 1993 MEC
FL updated every three years to current IECC standards
GA 1975 MCEC 1992 MEC
HI
IA 1977 MEC 1992 MEC
ID state code revised state code
IL
IN 1977 MCEC 1983 MEC 1992 MEC
KS state code 1993 MEC
KY state code 1992 MEC
LA
MA state code 1995 MEC
MD state code 1993 MEC 1995 MEC
ME state code 1992 MEC
MI ASHRAE 90-1975 ASHRAE 90-1980 1992 MEC
MN ASHRAE 90-1975 1983 MEC 1989 MEC 1992 MEC 1995 MEC
MO
MS
MT 1983 MEC
NC ASHRAE 90-1975 1992 MEC 1995 MEC
ND
NE ASHRAE 90-1975 1983 MEC
NH ASHRAE 90-1975 ASHRAE 90-1980 1995 MEC
NJ BOCA 1987 BOCA 1990 BOCA 1993 BOCA 1996
NM (no national equivalent?) 1992 MEC 1995 MEC
NV ASHRAE 90-1975 1986 MEC
NY 1979 NYS ECCC 1991 NYS ECCC
OH (no national equivalent?) 1993 MEC 1995 MEC
OK 1995 MEC
OR ASHRAE 90-1975 ASHRAE 90-1980 1983 MEC 1986 MEC 1989 MEC 1992 MEC 1995 MEC
PA
RI NECC 1987 NECC 1990 1995 MEC
SC (no national equivalent?) 1993 MEC 1995 MEC
SD
TN 1977 MCEC 1992 MEC
TX
UT 1993 MEC 1995 MEC
VA
VT 1995 MEC
WA ASHRAE 90-1980 ASHRAE 90-1989
WI COMM 63 & COMM 22
WV 1990 NECC 1993 NBC
Unconditional Event Graph: Per Capita Unconditional Event Graph: Per Capita ConsumptionConsumption
Building Code Adoption
Residential New Construction und Residential New Construction und Building Code by StateBuilding Code by State
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
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0.2
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Shar
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AZCAFLPAORVT
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
1 2 3 4 5
6 7
log( )
e ngit it it it it it
it it it it
q p p y CDD HDD
Share Intensity Z
Per capita residential electricity consumption, state i, year t
Average residential electricity price, state i, year t
Average natural gas price, state i, year t
Per capita real personal income, state i, year t
Heating & Cooling Degree Days, state i, year t
Share of construction since 1970 permitted under building code
ACEEE stringency and enforcement index
,
it
eit
ngit
it
it it
it
it
q
p
p
y
HDD CDD
Share
Intensity
Estimation Results
Estimated Building Code ImpactsEstimated Building Code Impacts
OR WA WI CA FL UT MN MT GA VA NV NC SC NY NM
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t (
)
KY TN VT OK MI LA IN PA CT WY ND ME AZ AL
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t (
)
NJ NH IA RI MD AR WV NE MA CO DE ID OH TX
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t (
)
OR WA WI CA FL UT MN MT GA VA NV NC SC NY NM
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t ()
KY TN VT OK MI LA IN PA CT WY ND ME AZ AL
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t ()
NJ NH IA RI MD AR WV NE MA CO DE ID OH TX
-0.1
-0.05
0
BC
Im
pac
t ()
Total New Residential Construction Total New Residential Construction since 1970 by Statesince 1970 by State
Waxman Markey (ACESA, 2009)Waxman Markey (ACESA, 2009)• Combines Cap and Trade Program (Title III) with aggressive
energy efficiency efforts (Title II). • Title II, Subtitle A, Section 201 sets energy efficiency targets
for residential and commercial buildings• After enactment, compliant buildings will meet a 30
percent reduction in energy use relative to a baseline code (ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2004 for commercial and 2006 IECC for Residential)
• By 2014 (residential) and 2015 (commercial), buildings will be required to meet a 50% reduction.
• The reduction requirements are tightened by 5% at three year intervals thereafter until 2029 and 2030 respectively.
• Option to raise state-specific standards to match or exceed new standards.