the impact of space weather on vital sectors · impact avition 16february 12, 2020 enisa - space...
TRANSCRIPT
What if the Sun turns off the light?
Dr. Bert van den Oord
i.c.w. Dr. Eelco Doornbos
The impact of spaceweather on vital sectors
Relevance
› Since the ninety's technological revolution:
– Increasing role of satellites services for communication, navigation, monitoring,…
– Development of trans-continental networks for information, transport, power grids
– Replacement of atom clock time code by GNSS time code in many vital sectors
– Improved sensitivity of antenna and radar systems
› Since the ninety's societal revolution:
– Use of internet-based services for social contacts and information exchange
– Use of internet-based services for government communication
› National Risk Assessments indicate non-negligible risk for vital services
– risk = probability x impact
February 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather indi 2
Event probability impact
Carrington low enormous
Average levels high small
Sun-Earth system: Space Weather
3 February 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather
Problem:• Every 11 years the polarity of the solar magnetic field alternates• The magnetic field has to be expelled each cycle: solar flares and solar wind• These processes disturb the ionosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth• Impacts (inter)national vital sectors
Needed: development of (national) space weather services & alerts
Different views of the SUN
X-ray
UV- radiation
Visible
ENISA - Space weather
4
February 12, 2020
Solar corona: loops and holes
February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
5
Coronal mass ejections
February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
6
Magnetic Reconnection
Solar flares
Radiation Particles
Proton storms Coronal Mass Ejections Coronal Hole
Solar wind
Particles
ENISA - Space weather
7 February 12, 2020X-ray, EUV, radio
Impact on vital sectors (anecdotal)
8February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
Coronal mass ejections
Relativisticprotons
X-rayimpact ionosphere:GPS/GNSSHF communication
Coherent radio emission
Solar wind
• Drag• Navigation• Time code
VIA MAGNETOSPHERE
DIRECT
DIRECT
VIA IONOSPHERE
C4ISR
February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
9
Cause – effect diagram
13-11-2019
DCC-IenW / KNMI SWx 10
Arrival time prediction CME’s
February 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather 11
Solar Radio Bursts 10 MHz – 3GHz
12
February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
Relevance for NL: March 17, 2015 GPS in Delft
February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
13
Modelling ionospheric disturbances
Credits NCAR/HAOFebruary 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather 14
Modelling the solar influence
February 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather 15Credits NCAR/HAO
Impact avition
16 ENISA - Space weatherFebruary 12, 2020
Aviation ICAO› Space weather in ICAO Annex3 (standard operations)
› Since November 2019 three global centres operational to provide civil aviation with warnings for disturbances in:
– GNSS
– UHF communication
– Radiation levels
PECASUS (FIN, UK, BEL, GER, IT, AU, POL, NL, CYP)
SWPC (USA)
ACJF (AUS, CAN, JAP, FRA)
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February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather
Space WeatherSWE
Near Earth Objects
NEO
Space DebrisSST
Satellites
Vital sectorsCONTINUOUS
ELECTROMAGNETIC
InfrastructuresINCIDENTAL
BOMBARDMENT
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ENISA - Space weather 18
ESA SPACE SAFETY PROGRAMME
Status space weather
› Developing at national and international level
› Involved organisations:– ESA space safety programme
– EU Commission: Space Programme (COPERNICUS, GALILEO, GOVSATCOM)
– COSPAR: scientific roadmap space weather
– WMO: operational roadmap for space weather (meteorology as example)
– COPUOS/UN: governmental
– ITU: radiofrequency domain effects
– ISES: International Space Enevironment Services
– National services
– ICAO: civil aviation
February 12, 2020
ENISA - Space weather 19