The Impact of Social-Psychological Factors on Reproductive IntentionsEkaterina Golovlyanitsina

GGS Russia 2004

The Independent Institute for Social Policy

Non-material Determinants of Reproductive Intentions Orientations towards traditional values:

religiousnessconservatism

Social-psychological factors:

the attitude towards bearing a child

subjective norm

behavioral control

Theory of Planned Behavior[Fishbein, Ajzen 1975, 1988]

Personal preferences and dispositions;

Exogenous incentives and restrictions, etc.

Attitude

Norm

Control

Intention Behavior

The Sample and Questions Sample:

Women 18-44 (except for pensioners, disabled, unable to bear a child, pregnant). 2604 respondents.

Attitude:

Let’s imagine that you will have a (another) child in the next three years. In your opinion, how this would influence various aspects of your life? [ability to do what you want, opportunities at work, satisfaction with life, relationships with partner, with parents etc.]

Perceived norm:

Although the decision to have or not to have a (another) child should be yours and (your partner’s/spouse’s), your relatives and friends might also have an opinion as to what you should do in the next three years.

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements: Most of your friends // relatives // Your parents think that you should have a (another) child

Behavioral control:

To what extent does your decision to have or not to have a (another) child depend on financial situation, R’s work, housing, R’s health, etc.

Changes in employment

0

10

20

30

40

50

intend to havea child in thenext 3 years

intend to havea child later

not intend tohave a child

much better

better

the same

worse

much worse

Emotional changes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

intend to have achild in the next

3 years

intend to have achild later

not intend tohave a child

Women expect that childbirth will worsen their employment situations, but enhance their emotional conditions

The attitude – the degree to which performance of the behavior is positively or negatively valued

Support for a first child

0

10

20

30

40

50

intend to have achild in the next 3

years

intend to have achild later

not intend to havea child

definetly yes

probably yes

unsure

probably no

definetly no

Support for a second, etc. child

0

10

20

30

40

50

intend to have achild in the next 3

years

intend to have achild later

not intend to havea child

Perceived norm – behavioral expectations of important referent individuals or groups (the person's, family, friends, etc.)

Women not expecting any support from relatives tend to decline childbearing

Behavioral control – a person’s beliefs about the presence of factors that may facilitate or impede the action

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Financialsituation

R's work Housingconditions

R's health A suitablepartner

P's work P's health Child careservices

Maternityleave

intend to have a child in the next 3 years intend to have a child later not intend to have a child

Women intending to have a child see external factors as unimportant

Binary logistic regression models of reproductive intentions1) General intentions

R2 = 0,39 (only psychological factors = 0,33)

N = 2032

2) Intentions for the next 3 years R2 = 0,55 (only psychological factors =

0,44)

N = 2331According to the theory of planned behavior, psychological factors work as better determinants than objective characteristics

Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child

General intentions: the attitude and other psychological factors are major determinants

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Age

Hous

ing

Hous

ehol

d in

com

e

Unem

ploy

men

t

no c

hild

ren

(refe

renc

e)

one

two

and

mor

e

yes

(refe

renc

e) no

no (r

efer

ence

)

yes

high

er (r

efer

ence

)

seco

ndar

y ge

nera

l & le

ss

prim

ary

prof

essi

onal

seco

ndar

y pr

ofes

sion

al

rura

l (re

fere

nce)

urba

n

no (r

efer

ence

)

weak

mid

dle

stro

ng +

Isla

m

- (re

fere

nce) 0 +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

Beha

vior

al c

ontro

l

. . . . Children Married Employed Education Type ofsettlement

Religiousity Conservatism Attitude towardschildbearing

Perceived norm .

Intentions for 3 years: both psychological factors and objective characteristics of women matter

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Age

Hous

ing

Hous

ehol

d in

com

e

Unem

ploy

men

t

no c

hild

ren

(refe

renc

e)

one

two

and

mor

e

yes

(refe

renc

e) no

no (r

efer

ence

)

yes

high

er (r

efer

ence

)

seco

ndar

y ge

nera

l & le

ss

prim

ary

prof

essi

onal

seco

ndar

y pr

ofes

sion

al

rura

l (re

fere

nce)

urba

n

no (r

efer

ence

)

weak

aver

age

stro

ng +

Isla

m

- (re

fere

nce) 0 +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

Beha

vior

al c

ontro

l

. . . . Children Married Employed Education Type ofsettlement

Religiousity Conservatism Attitude towardchildbearing

Perceived norm .

Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child in the next 3 years

The income effect dramatically decreases when psychological factors are in the model

Income effect without

subjective factors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Age

Hous

ing

Hous

ehol

d in

com

e (1

)

Hous

ehol

d in

com

e

Unem

ploy

men

t

no c

hild

ren

(refe

renc

e)

one

two

and

mor

e

yes

(refe

renc

e) no

no (r

efer

ence

)

yes

high

er (r

efer

ence

)

seco

ndar

y ge

nera

l & le

ss

prim

ary

prof

essi

onal

seco

ndar

y pr

ofes

sion

al

rura

l (re

fere

nce)

urba

n

no (r

efer

ence

)

weak

aver

age

stro

ng +

Isla

m

- (re

fere

nce) 0 +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

0 (re

fere

nce) - +

Beha

vior

al c

ontro

l

. . . Children Married Employed Education Type ofsettlement

Religiousity Conservatism Attitude towardchildbearing

Perceived norm .

Intentions for 3 years General intentions

Perceived norm and household income

2 statistics for relationship between deciles of household income per person

and reproductive intentions

Expected reaction of relatives and

prospects of any aid from them

negative neutral positive

2 25,027 11,113 15,052

Df 9 9 9

Significance of 2 0,000 0,268 0,090

N 1478 374 583

Conclusions Psychological factors are good predictors of

reproductive intentions, though some methodological problems persist

Expected reaction of relatives and friends turns out to be both the strongest incentive and the strongest restriction of reproductive intentions of Russian women

Intention to have a first child depends only on attitute and perceived norm; intention for second and more child depends on attitude, perceived norm and household financial wellbeing