the impact of financial crisis and policy response in croatia nikola bokan, lovorka grgurić, ivo...
TRANSCRIPT
The Impact of Financial Crisis and Policy
Response in Croatia
Nikola Bokan, Lovorka Grgurić, Ivo Krznar, Maroje Lang
15th Dubrovnik Economic ConferenceJune 2009
Outline
1. Motivation2. Model structure3. Simulation exercise4. Comparison with the actual developments5. Conclusion
1 Motivation
Aim : Understand the impact of the current financial crisis on
Croatia and possible monetary policy response
Method : Unprecedented shocks prevents us to use standard
statistics Testing a newly built model in a challenging situation
2. Model – introductory remarks
Small open economy DSGE model Built with a purpose to analyze different possible
shocks facing Croatian economy Contains large number of possible shocks Calibrated and not estimated
Different from standard IT model due to different monetary policy regime Stable exchange rate, heavy use of regulations (RR) Monetary policy works through banking sector Financial eurisation
Interest in financial variables (credit, debt)
Model structure
Monetary policy in the model
1. Stable exchange rate (random walk)2. Reserve requirement as monetary policy
instrument
• Discretionary monetary policy
High regulatory cost(defined as “immobilized” assets / total liabilities)
3. Simulation exercise
Current financial crisis simulated as an external shock to Croatian economy
1. Increase in price of foreign borrowings (3 pp)2. Drop in exports (10 %)
Impulse responses
Foreign interest rate shock
increase in foreign interest rates: cost of foreign borrowing increases for both banks and firms domestic interest rates increase even more due to RR
real sector: increase in debt/service & production cost decrease in demand (consumption) => decrease in production
& imports financial sector:
decrease in credit demand (HH and firms) decrease in foreign borrowing
Export demand shock
decrease in exports lowers domestic production and household income
real sector: decrease in demand (consumption) => decrease in
production & imports financial sector:
decrease in credit demand (HH and firms) decrease in foreign borrowing
Monetary policy response
Limited room for maneuver Exchange rate depreciation would increase debt service
cost and bad loans due to eurization (not fully modeled)
Monetary authorities can decrease regulatory cost (RR) Simulation of 10 pp decrease in RR
Reserve requirement reduction
1. Decrease in regulatory cost Decrease in domestic interest rates Some increase in real economic activity due to lower
interest rate (consumption, production, imports)
2. Release of previously immobilized assets Significant decrease in foreign borrowing
Banks can't lend all released assets domestically
Combined effect of three shocks
Monetary easing through RR only marginally reduces negative impact of the crisis on real sector
Net exports improve (imports decrease more than exports)
Interest rate increases significantly Credit activity decreases Significant reduction in foreign borrowing
4. Comparison with the actual developments
Early dana showing initial impact of the crisis are available
Model predicted:Slowdown in real activity
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1(f)
GDPConsumption
%GDP and Personal Consumption (annual rate of change YoY)
Improvement in trade balance
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1
Exports (trend)Imports (trend)
EU
R m
illio
n
Merchandise Trade
Decrease in credit activity
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1
Credits to private sector (trend)Broad money (trend)
%
Monetary Aggregates(trend, annual rate of change YoY, constant exchange rate)
However:Domestic interest rates increased
moderately
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1
Households (long term fx indexed)Enterprises (short term kuna loans)
%
Interest rates on loans to private sector
Reasons for moderate increase in domestic interest rates
1. Impact of shock might be exaggerated in simulation
1. Decreased faster than assumed by the model2. Foreign borrowing by banks/firms actually
cheaper/postponed
2. Reduction in RR contributed to less interest rate increase
3. Popular pressures against interest rates increase and already high bank profits
evidence of credit-rationing instead
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1
HR DECEE1 (PL,SI,SK) CEE2 (HU,RO)
%
Yield to maturity of government bonds (in percentage points)
Foreign borrowing continued (although somewhat slower than before)
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1
Commercial banksEnterprises
EU
R m
illio
nForeign Debt
Reason why foreign borrowing slowed only marginally
GOVERNMENT BORROWING
Banks lent to the government as fiscal revenues dropped
5. Conclusion
The results to a large extent match the actual data showing the early impact of the crisis model is a useful policy analysis tool
With stable exchange rate regime, decreasing the regulatory burden can only marginally reduce the negative impact of the current crisis on real economy