the impact of delaying public transport reforms on sustainability amal s. kumarage fcilt immediate...
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THE IMPACT OF DELAYING PUBLIC TRANSPORT REFORMS ON
SUSTAINABILITY
Amal S. Kumarage FCILTImmediate Past-President CILT Sri Lanka
Senior Professor, University of Moratuwa
CILTSL International Conference
2nd November 2012
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2
Q.
WHY DO WE NEED TO DEVELOP A PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM?
WILL NOT THE PROBLEM BE SOLVED, WHEN WE CAN ALL AFFORD A PRIVATE VEHICLE IN THE FUTURE?
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Outline of Presentation
1. Why PT is necessary for sustainability?
2. Why reforms in PT are necessary?
3. Why reforms have not been fully successful?
4. What reforms are necessary to improve PT?
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1. Why PT is necessary for sustainability?
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Sri Lanka- ‘Business-as-usual’ Transport Scenario
Year 10 Year
Fleet Growth
Rate
Operational Vehicle Fleet
Vehicle Ownership per 1000 persons
Vehicle Kms
Operated Passenger
Kms Carried
Modal Share
Bus Rail Private Other
2011 7.5% p.a. 2.7 mn 130 27 bn 100 bn 55 5 26 14
2021 6.0% p.a. 4.8 mn 250 55 bn 150 bn 41 5 38 16
2031 5.0% p.a. 7.8 mn 370 111 bn 226 bn 20 4 57 19
Growth 2011-2031
Vehicle Fleet = 3 times Vehicle Kms = 4 timesRoad Space Requirement = 2 times
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Demand for Travel by Mode (1958-2030)
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DEMAND FOR TRAVEL BY MODE (1958-2030)
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Speed km/hrTime for Road Capacity to be
doubled2011 2021 2031 2031
Daily Average Peak Hour Years
Sri Lanka 25.75 22.62 19.13 11.42 18-20
Colombo District 21.69 17.48 14.41 9.10 10-12
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Indicator 1: Sustainability of Current Road Network Speeds
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2021 2031
Daily AverageSpeed (Km/hr)
Peak Hour Speed
(Km/hr)
Years to Double Capacity required to
maintain Speeds
Outer Circular (Kottawa-Ja ela) 40.4 19.7 8.0 7-10 years
Colombo-Katunayake (P’goda- K’yake) 47.8 24.7 8.0 6-8 years
Indicator 2: Sustainability of New Urban Expressways
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Indicator 3: Sustainability of Energy Consumption
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In last 20 years:Fuel use has increased by 3 times Fuel cost has increased by 6 timesThat amounts to a 16% growth annually
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To maintain current road speeds by 2031
Increase in Road capacity requirement will be 100% (more to improve speed)
Require doubling of spending of GDP on highways from 2% to 4%
Constrained by Space in Urban areas.
Increase of Fuel Bill from 4% of GDP to 8% even at current oil prices
Benefits will reduce and costs increase if speeds cannot be maintained.
Congestion, pollution, environmental and road safety impacts will increase.
Quality of Life will deteriorate & Overall transport costs will increase
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Sustainability
Why?
Living within the limits
Understanding the
interconnections among economy,
society, and environment
Equitable distribution of resources
and opportunities
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2. Why Reforms in PT are necessary?
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0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,0000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Vehicle Ownership Rate Vs Per Capita Income at Different Levels of Intervention
Low
Moderate
High
Per Capita Income 1995 PPP(USD)
Ve
hic
le O
wn
ers
hip
Ra
te (
pe
r 1
00
0
pe
rso
n)
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, Seoul
Singapore, Hong Kong
USA, Australia, Canada
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Factors Determining Vehicle Ownership Levels
Pop Density
Population Density
(pop/ ha)
Roads (m/ pop)
Share of Public
Transport
Vehicle Ownership Saturation
(per 1000 p)
Restrictions
Low < 25 > 4 < 5% 700-900 No restriction on ownership or Use
Moderate 25-75 1-4 15-35% 400-600 No restriction on ownership
restrictions on use High > 75 < 1 50-80% 200-300 Restrictions on
ownership and use
Sri Lanka 3 p/ha 5 m/p
Colombo District 35 p/ha 2 m/p
Colombo City 174 p/ha <0.2m/p
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CMC, DMMC,
SJKMC
Kandy
Batticaloa
Kurunegala
Galle
Jaffna
PRESENT HIGH DENSITY AREAS FOR CONSIDERATION
AS PT PRIORITY AREAS
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Cities/Metros that Have Achieved More Sustainable Transport Shares
What they have done?
Europe Mostly Suburban and Light Rail Systems
supported by buses. Some with NMT.
Latin America Renewal led by Bus Transit (BRT) now 97
cities operating
East Asia Singapore , Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul,
Osaka have successes with Rapid Transit and Buses to curtail motorization.
South Asia In India 17 cities have or are planning
Bus Transit Systems 10 of then under JnNURM
City Walking Cycling Public
Transport
Private
Motor Vehicle year
Amsterdam 4% 22% 30% 44% 2004
Bern 11% 11% 54% 24% 2001
Bratislava 4% 0% 70% 26% 2004
Budapest 22% 2% 30% 46% 2004
Helsinki 12% 6% 40% 41% 2004
Copenhagen 6% 36% 29% 26% 2004
Frankfurt 11% 7% 39% 43% 2004
Hamburg 8% 8% 33% 51% 2004
Lisbon 10% 0% 46% 40% 2001
Madrid 9% 0% 43% 48% 2004
Munich 9% 8% 41% 41% 2004
Paris 55% 3% 31% 11% 2008[3]
Prague 23% 1% 43% 33% 2009[4]
Stockholm 15% 7% 43% 33% 2004
The Hague 5% 22% 30% 43% 2004
Stuttgart 13% 4% 32% 51% 2004
Vienna 28% 5% 36% 31 % 2010[5]
Warsaw 21% 1% 54% 24% 2005[6]
Zürich 8% 5% 63% 25% 2001
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Conclusion
Public Transport must be developed to
provide a service that will be competitive
with private transport use for:
Urban Transport
Inter-urban transport
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3. Why Reforms in PT in SL have not been fully successful?
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1907Single Bus Owners
ResultHigh investmentOwner Operators
Intense CompetitionLow Fares
Environment·1938Route Licensing
Territorial MonopoliesFare Control
Bus CompaniesResult
Exploitation of WorkersPoor Service Quality by Failing
CompaniesOthers make High Profits
ResultPoor Reinvestment
Low Fares Quality Improves
then DeclinesLow Labour Productivity
1979Mixed State & Private Operators
Poor RegulationResult
Owner Operators
Standards Decline High Investment Oversupply
Collusive Behaviour High Load Factors
1958Nationalized
Monopoly
Policy Paradigms in Bus Transport
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Reforms in Bus Transport
Policy Reform carried out
Problems/Alternate Reform
1958
Nationalization Political Objective/ PPP for underperforming companies
1978
Peoplization of state buses & Re-entry of Private
Operators
Private Management for SLTB and Corporate Operators
2003
Private Management for State buses
Stopped due to transparency issues
2005
SLTB Re-instituted with controls
Political control continues
2008
Private Bus regulatory control reforms on trial
basis
Discontinued in favour of political control
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Reforms in Railway Transport
Policy Reform carried out
Problems/Alternate Reform
2003
Railway Authority Trade Union Opposition/ Restructuring
2005
Railway Management Council
No political will to enforce/Restructuring to SBUs
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Encourage Use of Public Transport Influence shift
from Road to Rail
from Private modes to Public modes
Provide public the widest possible choice of Modes
Optimize land and road use
Conservation of Environment and Energy
Achieve cost effectiveness and affordability24
DIRECTIONS FROM THE LAND TRANSPORT POLICY, 2009
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Lessons from failure of Reforms (or lack of them) in PT
Political objectives supersede the desire to improve functionality and service levels
Poor policy formulation that is not sustainable and creates more problems than what is solved
Lack of transparency in dealing with private sector
No commitment to explicit ‘policy-led’ governance
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4. What reforms are necessary to improve PT?
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Internal management restructuring to create SBUs
Create operational SBUs (e.g. freight, tourism, property) to enter in to PPP for investment to develop services that will return financial surpluses.
Provide public investment to develop further the SBUs responsible for (a) sub urban and intercity passenger services and (b) track related infrastructure.
Provide Public Service Obligations for other SBUs such as (regional passenger trains).
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REFORMS IN RAILWAYS
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Restructure management with possible private sector assistance on depot level while retaining ownership.
Convert individual operators to franchised companies/ cooperatives.
De-politicize and Institutional Strengthening of Regulators.
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REFORMS IN BUS SECTOR
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DEVELOPMENT OF RAPID TRANSIT
Parl
iam
ent
Rd
Kan
dy R
dG
alle
R
d
Neg
om
bo R
dPe
raden
iya
Rd
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View of BRT Corridors
IMPROVING URBAN HIGHWAYS FOR PT
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Corporatize or Cooperatize Private Bus Service Providers
Management Concession for SLTB operations
New urban modes of PT
Unbundling of SLR Services and set up SBUs for private sector investment in non-core areas
Design Urban Highways for PT Services
Conclusion
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Overall Policy Reforms in PT
Policy reversal on using PT supply for
political objectives over service objectives
Ensure qualified management
Maintain balance between State and
private investment
De-politicize regulators and improve
capacity to plan and regulate
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THANK YOU
……for sustainable education reforms!!