the ifo business climate - apd-ukraine.de · • 1950: retailing, 1951 wholesaling • 1956:...
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The Ifo Business Climate Structure, Results and Performance
Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe
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Ifo Surveys
• The Ifo Business Climate
• The World Economic Survey
• Investment Survey
• Management Survey
• Innovation Survey
• …
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Characteristics of the
Ifo Business Cycle Test
• regular survey
• voluntary participation
• mostly qualitative questions
• Provides up-to-date information about the current
economic situation and the upcomining development
• information exchange between firms and the institute
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History ifo business surveys
• Start end of 1949 (December 1949: 88 Firms)
• Goal: closing the gap to the official business statistics
• Mainly qualitative questions, as there was (and is) an
aversion against qualitative questions
• 1949: Industry
• 1950: Retailing, 1951 Wholesaling
• 1956: Construction
• 2004: Services
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Monthly Schedule
Start of the Survey (Beginning of the month)
Incoming questionaires (online, Paper, Fax)
Reminder
Consistency Check
Calculation of the ifo Business Climate
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Problems
• Panel mortality
- „aversion“
- insolvency
- fusion
- change of the contact person
• Numerous surveys (Students, associations)
• Increasing „panel fatigue “
• Competition with official statistics
• Special surveys
• Surveys vs. science
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Acquisition of Firms
• Mailings (adress providers)
• Cooperation with associations
• In principle: Every firm can participate
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Questionaire
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Weighting
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Weights depending on the size
of the individual firm
Industry: Employees
Retailing and Wholesaling: Turnover (Size Range)
Construction: Employees (Size Range)
Conversion of Employess and Turnovers
into weighting points
Aggregation along the product line: Gross Value Added
weights
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ifo Business Cycle Test: Example
Firm Answer Weight Answer Distribution
+ = -
A satisfactory 5 5
B good 2 2
C good 4 4
D unsatisfactory 2 2
E Satisfactory 5 5
F good 2 2
Sum of Weights 20 8 10 2
Percentage Shares 100% 40% 50% 10%
Balance Statistic = ( good - unsatisfactory) 40% - 10% = +30%
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BCL = (Sit + 200) * (Exp + 200) - 200
Calculation of the Ifo Business Climate
BCL: Business Climate, Balance
Sit: Business Situation, Balance
Exp: Business Expectations, Balance
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At the publication date
1. Calculation of the Ifo Business Climate for Industry and
Trade
2. Top Priority: Strict confidentiality
3. Draft of the press release (Head of Ifo Surveys)
4. Discussion of the Press Release (President, Head of
the business cycle research, head of Ifo Surveys, press
officer plus two experts)
5. 10:00: Release of the Index via telephone conference
6. Immediate reaction of the DAX and €/$-Exchange rate
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Reaction of the DAX
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(Aggregated) Results
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Correlation: 0.74
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Correlation: 0.84!
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Correlation: 0.96! (6 Months ahead)
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THE most important
indicator for the German
Economy:
1. Monthly information
about the German
Economy
2. Moves the market
3. Very good relationship
with official figures
4. Very detailed results