The Human Population:The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsPatterns, Processes, and Problematics

Lecture #2Lecture #2

Paul SuttonPaul Sutton

psutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of DenverUniversity of Denver

How many Humans have ever lived?How many Humans have ever lived?In 1980 William Matthews claimed that there were more

people alive on the planet than had lived and died on it. Could this be true? (In short… NO)

Nathan Keyfitz did the most systematic study. His conclusion: 60 billion have been born. Today’s 6 billion represent about 10% of all humans born ever.

How does one calculate this? Estimates of fertility, longevity, infant mortality, and their changes through time are necessary.

It is interesting to note that we represent a much higher fraction of adults that have lived on the planet.

Redistribution of Population through migrationRedistribution of Population through migration

Historically humans have typically migrated from growing, densely populated areas to vacant or less densely populated areas.

Example: The European Expansion

Today, Economic opportunities are a major driving force of human migration.

Examples: Mexican migration to United States

and Rural to Urban migration globally

Mapping some major global migrations

The European Migration (1500-1950)The European Migration (1500-1950)

Although the continent was already crowded, the death rate began To drop and the population began to expand rapidly. SimultaneousUrbanization, new occupations, financial panics, and unrestrainedCompetition gave rise to status instability on a scale never knownBefore. Many a bruised or disappointed European was ready to Seek his fortune abroad, particularly since the new lands, tamed byThe Pioneers, no longer seemed wild and remote but rather like Paradises where one could own land and start a new life. The Invention of the steam ship (the first one crossed the Atlantic in1827) Made the decision less irrevocable. [Kingsley Davis]

Population Proportions before and Population Proportions before and after the European Expansionafter the European Expansion

14001400 - 18% of world pop European (- 18% of world pop European (90% of them in Europe)90% of them in Europe)

1930’s – Peak of Euro Domination. 35 % of World European1930’s – Peak of Euro Domination. 35 % of World European

2000 - People of European ancestry are 16% of World pop2000 - People of European ancestry are 16% of World pop

By 2050 – People of European ancestry will only be 11%By 2050 – People of European ancestry will only be 11%

Pre WWII: Developed countries had growing populations andPre WWII: Developed countries had growing populations and

out-migrationout-migration

After WWII: Developing countries had growing populationsAfter WWII: Developing countries had growing populations

and out-migrationand out-migration

““Population growth used to be a reward for doing well; now it’s a Population growth used to be a reward for doing well; now it’s a scourge for doing badlyscourge for doing badly”” [Judith Blake] [Judith Blake]

The Urban RevolutionThe Urban Revolution

• For most of human history people lived rural areas

• In 1800 1% of world urban, 10% of England urban

• Trade and Industrialization caused urbanization

• Rome’s population of 650,000 in 100 a.d. unusual

• Today the world is just about 50 % urban

• The United States is about 75% urban

• Some countries like Venezuela are 90% urban

• The world is still urbanizing and is expected to settle at about 75% urban eventually

Geographic Distribution of World PopulationGeographic Distribution of World Population

The world’s 10 most populous nations constitute 59% of the world’s The world’s 10 most populous nations constitute 59% of the world’s population and 37% of the world’s land area.population and 37% of the world’s land area.

1)1) ChinaChina 1.3 1.3 BillionBillion2)2) IndiaIndia 1.1 1.1 BillionBillion3)3) United States 281 million (note book’s estimate of 275)United States 281 million (note book’s estimate of 275)4)4) Indonesia 219 millionIndonesia 219 million5)5) BrazilBrazil 174 million 174 million Note: there are moreNote: there are more6)6) RussiaRussia 146 million 146 million people in China thanpeople in China than7)7) PakistanPakistan 141 million 141 million in the U.S., Indonesia,in the U.S., Indonesia,8)8) BangladeshBangladesh 132 million 132 million Brazil, Russia, PakistanBrazil, Russia, Pakistan9)9) JapanJapan 126 million 126 million Bangladesh, Japan, andBangladesh, Japan, and10)10) NigeriaNigeria 117 million 117 million Nigeria combined.Nigeria combined.

China (and India to some extent) are the major demographic drivers on the planet. China (and India to some extent) are the major demographic drivers on the planet. This is one of the reasons why you hear so much about China joining the WTO This is one of the reasons why you hear so much about China joining the WTO and Sino-US relationsand Sino-US relations

Three ways of Mapping the Global Population

1) A Nighttime Satellite Image

2) A Cartogram where Area of Nation ~ Population

3) Choropleth Map (Color ~ Total population

What benefits and/or drawback do each map have?

Nighttime Satellite Image of EarthNighttime Satellite Image of EarthProduced from Defense Meteorological Satellite ProgramProduced from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program

Cartogram of World PopulationCartogram of World Population

Why do people often think Africa is overpopulated?

Choropleth Map of World Population

This is a map of World Population densityThis is a map of World Population density

How is this different than the other maps? Do you like it better?

Geographical Variation in Population Growth Rates

Global Growth Rate 2000 is 1.25% per year (doubles in 55 years)

Some countries growing much faster: most of the Middle East nationsmost African nations, much of Latin America, and the Indian subcontinent

Some countries are growing more slowly: The United States, Brazil, China,Australia, Canada, Chile, and Japan

Some countries are actually shrinking: Much of Eastern Europe, Spain, and Italy

World map of national Population Growth Rates

Regional Demographics: North America IU.S. and Canada ~ 5% of World Population

• U.S. ~ 281 million• Canada ~33 million• Mexico ~ 100 million• In 1650 there were about

3 million Native Americans and 50,000 Europeans in what is now U.S. and Canada

• By 1850 Guns, Germs, and Steel had reduced Native American population to 250,000 and European numbers had grown to 25 million.

Population Density of Population Density of North America todayNorth America today

Regional Demographics: United States

• Colonial America: Really high fertility rates (8-9 children per woman in North, much lower in South)

• Most growth from natural increase. (immigration only about 3% of it)

• Migration not a major source of U.S. population growth until 1850

• Almost a population decline during depression

• Post WWII ‘Baby Boom’

Regional Demographics:Canada

• Canada originally settled by the French• Ceded to England in 1763• History of French vs. English Rivalry• French speaking Canadians (mostly in Quebec)

Of total population: 28 % in 1931 24% in 1997• Today Canadian fertility ~ 1.6 children / woman• Nonetheless population growing from

immigration• U.S. and Canada two of the most immigrant-

friendly countries in the world

Regional Demographics:Mexico & Central America

• Millions of people in Central America prior to Millions of people in Central America prior to Columbus (way more than in North America)Columbus (way more than in North America)

• Aztec and remnants of Mayan civilization Aztec and remnants of Mayan civilization quite sophisticated with agriculture and other quite sophisticated with agriculture and other cornerstones of complex civilizationcornerstones of complex civilization

• Colonized by Spanish with different goals: Colonized by Spanish with different goals: ‘take the gold and run away”. ‘take the gold and run away”.

• Population decimated by diseasePopulation decimated by disease• Very high population growth since WWII due Very high population growth since WWII due

to dropping death ratesto dropping death rates

Mexico & Central America Today~2 % of Total World Population

• Mexico ~ 100 Million

• Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, & Belize ~ 35 Million

• TFR in Mexico around 6 from 1600 to 1970

• Drops to 3.5 by 1995

• 10% of Mexican citizens live in U.S. today.

• Any connections between those facts?

Regional Demographics:South America

• South America ~330 million• About 5 % of World Total• (A little over half of them in Brazil)

• Brazil colonized by Portuguese – 1/3 of slaves in slave trade ended up in Brazil. Today the people of Brazil are Half European ancestry, Half Native or African ancestry.

• TFR Brazil 6 in 1960 2.3 today (a dramatic demographic change)

• In general: Greater European influence, greater economic development, lower TFR

Population density of South America

Regional Demographics:Europe

• Europe ~730 million

• Russia, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy (top 5)

• Western Europe growing slowly thanks to immigration

• Eastern & Central Europe actually depopulating

• Catholic countries of Spain & Italy with VERY low fertility rates.

Regional Demographics:North Africa & Western Asia

• Total Population of the Middle East and Maghreb ~350 million (6% world)

• Islam the predominant religion in the region

• A cluster of nations with unusually high population growth rates.

North African Countries aka The MaghrebAlgeria, Libya, Morrocco, Mauritania, Tunisia

Population Density in the Middle East

Regional Demographics:Sub-Saharan Africa

• Sub-Saharan Africa ~650 million (11% world)

• 1, 2, 3: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Zaire• Many of the most population

challenged countries of the world are

in Sub-Saharan Africa • AIDS will not keep population from

growing, will slow growth rate though

• ~11 million Africans forcibly relocated to Western Hemisphere from Slave Trade from 1600-1900

• Lower Death rates since WWII cause of population growth.

• Birth rates remain high throughout much of Africa

Population Density of Africa south of the Sahara

Regional Demographics:East Asia (China, Japan, N & S Korea)

• East Asia ~1.5 Billion (25% of World Population)

• China ~1.2 billion

• Japan ~125 million• 1850 1 in 3 living people were Chinese

• Today 1 in 4 living people are Chinese

• TFR in China today 1.9

• TFR in Japan today 1.5

• Ironically China is trying to get their TFR down to 1 whereas Japan would like to raise theirs to over 2

Population Density in EasternChina, Japan, and Koreas

Regional Demographics:South & Southeast Asia

• S & SE Asia ~2 Billion (1/3 of World Population)

• India ~ 1 Billion (expected to pass China in total pop size soon due to higher fertility rate)

• Fertility highly variable throughout India with notable low levels in Kerala and Tamil Nadu

• Pakistan & Bangladesh Muslim whereas India primarily Hindu

• Indonesia is 4th most populous nation in the world (behind China, India, and United States) with 219 million (also the nation with largest Muslim population)

Population density of theIndian Sub-continent

Regional Demographics: Oceania

Oceania is sometimes referred to as “Overseas European”

Total Population ~30 million

Australia 20 million

Papua-New Guinea

and New Zealand

Small populations scattered around on Islands.

Next Time………..

• Tomorrow we meet in Boettcher West 126

• Chapter 2: Demographic Resources

• What is a census? How is it conducted?

• What kinds of errors are there and how big are they?