the hovmöller report as a dss extension in a weather-ready nation™ robert j. ricks, jr. wfo new...
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The The Hovmöller Report Hovmöller Report as a as a DSS extension in a Weather-DSS extension in a Weather-
Ready Nation™Ready Nation™Robert J. Ricks, Jr.Robert J. Ricks, Jr.
WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LAWFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LAWed, August 27, 2014Wed, August 27, 2014
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History Lesson…
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What is a Hovmoller Diagram?• A way of viewing waves, wave behaviors, density or
concentrations• Also known as a Time-Latitude, Time-Longitude or Time
Section chart• Has been used primarily as a diagnostic tool – but evolving
into a prognostic tool.
“My name is in the [Wikipedia]! I am finally somebody” – Steve Martin “The Jerk”
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Applications There are several entities that use Hovmoller Diagrams to show - Tropical Phenomena (NHC) - Madden-Julian Oscillation (CPC) - Rainfall Patterns - Ozone concentrations
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Applications
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MJO Application
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Inspiration/Start-up
• Started in Dodge City, KS in early 1990s based on work by Ed Berry, in collaboration with Jeff Craven.
• Monitoring Wave 3-5 breakdowns which can be impactful for U.S. weather.
• Migrated the technique to WFO LIX 1995 and explored the prognostic aspects of the methodology.
• Used to manually plot and analyze with each 12 hour model run (A labor of love!)
• Started the HAPA Project (Hovmoller Analysis and Prognostic Approach)
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Current Approach…• Charts are auto-generated using ESRL
interactive map room graphics (Time Section charts).
• Plotting 500 mb height anomalies over time at a set latitude (20,25,30,35,40) for the entire 360° longitude band (actually 357.5°)
• Resolution: 1 day x 2.5°
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/time_plot/
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Black line = target longitude (90W)
Red lines = signals
Orange lines = anchors
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So, what are we looking at?• Linear renditions of wave packets moving around the
latitudinal belt. • Cool colors (blues/greens) are negative anomalies or
accumulated angular momentum.• Warm colors (oranges/reds) are positive anomalies.• Ideal signaling is a harmonic rhythm with a nearly
persistent phase speed. (Waves 3-6)• Anchors are persistent standing long wave troughs
(Waves 1-2) • Grid resolution actually serves as a filter for capillary
and highly transient wave lengths.
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Prognostic Properties• Once signals and anchors are identified (with
some sense of confidence), they can be extrapolated in time.
• Attempting to find discrete target dates of potential impacts from identifiable signal crossings.
• Not a day-to-day forecast tool. • Most effective for arctic outbreak and density
driven events. • Not as easily effective for severe weather
potential, but some skill can be gained.
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Motivation…
1. Try to identify large scale features; downscale to regional and local impacts;
2. Attempt to increase situational awareness for potential weather impacts that may require enhanced services (increased staffing, possible deployments, increased briefing workload, etc.);
3. Bridge the spatial-temporal transition from climate influenced forecasting to weather forecasting;
4. Sanity check for model performance in the long range portion of the forecast process.
5. Science-sharing among peers and researchers.
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How is this used for Decision Support Services…• Projecting out 30-60 days. • Focus on large scale, high profile event dates for
NWS offices involved in DSS activities– Festivals– Super Bowls– Air shows– National Conventions– Kentucky Derby– Higher than average confidence weather episodes
• Take the outlook from earliest detection (often 60 days out) up to the 7 day forecast window.
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The Hovmoller ReportHovmoller Report• A newsletter to discuss
trends, findings and outlooks.
• Started in 1995, publish about 8-12 editions each cool season.
• Became a Pilot Project extension report for ER-Met activities.
• Multi-scalar (planetary to regional)
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Report Contents…• Featured weather story on cover;• Verification of previous outlooks;• Non-met events (volcanic, solar CMEs, sunspots)• Oscillation behaviors (PNA, NAO, AO, MJO);• A brief ENSO status update and some light attribution
to local weather impacts;• Hemispheric wave charts;• Actual Hovmoller diagrams with identifiable signals
and anchors;• Outlook of signal crossings at target locations out next
60 days (with anticipated wx impacts, if possible).
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Verification of previous report outlooks
Requested DSS support outlooks from other WFOs
Air Fiesta in Brownsville, TX
Thunder Over Louisville and Kentucky Derby in Louisville, KY
Sample pages…
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Sample pages…
Latest hemispheric wave dynamics assessment
Large scale Wave Number behavior
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Sample pages…
ENSO state overview
MJO segment
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Sample pages…
40N Analysis and Projections with textual details.
Focus was mainly for the Louisville office in this particular report.
Event Climate Data
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Sample pages…
30N Analysis and Projections with textual details.
Mardi Gras (Mar 4th)
Jazz and Heritage Festival (2 weeks late April – Early May)
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Sample pages…
20N Analysis and Projections with textual details.
Verification and after-thoughts on Air Fiesta event in WFO BRO area that took place Feb 20-23, 2014.
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Sample pages…
Oscillation Assessment discussion with interpretation and expected trends
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Successes…
• Accurately called for an ice storm in N Louisiana in Feb 1996 with 30 day lead time. – Received SR Service Enhancement Award
• Pretty accurate on last 4 Super Bowl forecasts• Accurately predicted cold and wet Mardi Gras
this year with about a 30 day lead time, despite late season event (Mar 4th).
• Predicted heavy rain event for Gulf States for late March and again in mid-April with a couple week’s head’s up.
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Limitations…
• Difficult to account for 3-D energy transfer cross latitude and vertically;
• Non-linear behaviors;• Wave Number transitions;• Visually intensive & labor intensive;• Off-site data source is time delayed about 2-3
days.
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Future Developments…
• Attempting to automate the ingest of 500 mb hemispheric data from AWIPS;
• Interactive GUI development to perform analyses and generate signal statistics;– Modeled after “Spectral” Program by Jay Albrecht,
Seattle WA• Increase visibility of Hovmoller ReportHovmoller Report to
possibly include stakeholders;• Tropical Version of technique
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Tropical Hovmoller Approach…
• Can do another 30 minutes strictly on this method;
• Viewing U-Winds at 17 levels from 10mb-1000mb;
• Homogenous patterns of easterly and westerly winds in the stratosphere;
• 70 mb is key to the tropical cyclone season• Modulates the season – predictability on pre-
storm development and potential intensity.
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Samples… 70 mb Easterly Bulls-eye is where the action is!
89% of all Atlantic Basin systems form within the confines of this feature.
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7 10
1112
13
15
16
17
18
19
STS
TS
1
2
3
4
5
89
14
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A
2 B
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In closing…• HAPA method has been in practice at WFO LIX for
going on 20 years now. • Hovmoller Report Hovmoller Report has evolved into a DSS
instrument to help bridge the transition from climate realm to weather realm.
• Work continues to implement the approach into routine operations.
• Gaining popularity within WFOs/Centers partaking in DSS activities.
• Promising research on inter- and intra-seasonal tropical cyclogenesis predictions.
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Contact Info…
If you wish to be added to the distribution list, please e-mail me.
•E-mail: [email protected]•Office phone: (985) 649-0429 ext 4
•Remember, it is called “science-sharing” Comments, feedback, contributions are always encouraged.