the hitchhiker’s guide to guided pathways€¦ · • research base, predictive analytics,...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Guided PathwaysRedesigning Community CollegesBakersfield College
Craig HaywardJohn HettsTerrence Willett
http://bit.ly/MMAPPathways 1
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EngagementDo you know your mascots?
3
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• Guided pathways: Meaningful metaphors
• Clear the brush & set the stage
• Fire-tested Pathways Practices• Multiple Measures
• Acceleration• English acceleration & curricular redesign
• Statistics pathways
• Co-requisite acceleration
• Q&A
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• Academic Momentum & Academic Velocity
• Acceleration
• Institutional throughput rate
• Pathways completion cost
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• Academic Momentum & Academic Velocity• Momentum helps to transition, persist or cross a divide
• Velocity: Progress along a pathway over time toward a goal
• Guided pathway: A clear sequence of courses leading to a degree or certificate
• Lesson of the Basic Skills Cohort Progress Tracker
• Structure affects progression
• The design of a model pathway calls for a “light” touch• It’s not just about earning units, it’s about earning the right units
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Importance of institutional throughput rate
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Importance of institutional throughput rate
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Clearing the brush/building the trailhead
• Successful pathways through college requires trailheads that are clear and easy to access.
• Important to:• Clear unnecessary obstacles
• Beware barriers to entry
• Maintain trailhead
• Build from existing (and functional) pathways
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Trying to avoid trailheads that feel like
Dimrill Stairs and the Bridge of Khazad Dum
Grand Staircase of Hogwarts
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Want to build trailheads like:
• Limpy Creek Trailhead• Well-integrated with point of
access
• Clear and direct path to trail
• Ample maps, guidance, and information
• Multiple types of optional support structures available for those who need it
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Clearing the brushLessons from Long Beach Promise Pathways
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• Examined predictive utility of wide range of high school achievement data for predicting:
• How students are assessed and placed
• How students perform in those classes
• (and alignment between them)
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Alignment in English
* p <.05 **, p <.01, *** p<.001, x = p< 1 x 10-10
1.34x
.00
.30**
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
CST ELA (z) Eng Grade(12)
GPA (other)
Ord
inal
Re
gre
ssio
n C
oe
ffic
ien
ts
Predicting Placement
.17*
.37***
.88x
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
CST ELA (z) Eng Grade(12)
GPA (other)
Logi
stic
Re
gre
ssio
n C
oe
ffic
ien
ts
Predicting Performance
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Alignment in Math
* p <.05 **, p <.01, *** p<.001, x = p< 1 x 10-10
.75x
.20
.000.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
CST Math (z) Last MathGrade
HSGPA
Ord
inal
Re
gre
ssio
n C
oe
ffic
ien
ts
Predicting Placement
.20*.25**
.73x
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
CST Math (z) Last MathGrade
HSGPA
Logi
stic
Re
gre
ssio
n C
oef
fici
en
ts
Predicting Performance
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• Assessment should predict how students will perform at our colleges
• Instead:
• Previous standardized tests predict later standardized tests
• Previous classroom performance predicts later classroom performance
• More information tells us more about student capacity than less information
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Re-imagined student capacity
• Starting in Fall 2012, students from LBUSD were provided an alternative assessment
• (now 6 districts covering >30 high schools and growing) )
• Reverse engineered analysis to place students using:• Overall HSGPA• Last high school course in discipline• Grade in last course in discipline• Last standardized test in discipline (and level)
• Placed students in highest course where predicted success rate higher than average success rate for that course.
• Built semester plans with those placements and courses pre-populated
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Implementing Multiple Measures Placement:LBCC Transfer-level Placement Rates
11%7%
13%9%
14%9%
60%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Transfer Level English Transfer Level Math
F2011 First time students
F2011 LBUSD
F2012 Promise Pathways -Accuplacer Only
F2012 Promise Pathways -Multiple Measures
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Not just opening the gates:Success rates in transfer-level courses by entry type
64%
55%62%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
English Math
Cohort One, F2012
Non-Pathways Promise Pathways
Neither of these differences approach significance, p >.30
67%
49%
79%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
English Math
Cohort Three: F2014
Non-Pathways Promise Pathways
English difference, p < .001
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Equity impact LBCC: F2011 Baseline Equity Gaps for 2-year rates of achievement
4%
13%2%
15%12%
25%
3%
32%
21%24%
1%
33%
18%
34%
6%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Transfer Math SuccessfulCompletion
Transfer English SuccessfulCompletion
English 3 SuccessfulCompletion
Behavioral Intent toTransfer
F11 African Americans F11 Hispanic F11 Asian F11 White
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Equity impact LBCC: F2012 2-year rates of achievement
12%
39%
18%
42%
21%
51%
17%
52%
26%
58%
23%
59%
36%
64%
28%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Transfer Math SuccessfulCompletion
Transfer English SuccessfulCompletion
English 3 Success Behavioral Intent toTransfer
F12 African American F12 Hispanic F12 Asian F12 White
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Multiple MeasuresSTEPS to MMAP
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𝑦 = 𝑓 𝑥
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• 2008: Hewlett Foundation funded study of high school to college transition with
CalPASS statewide data set indicating predictive utility of high school data
http://bit.ly/WIllett2008
• 2011: Long Beach City College utilizes CalPASS data to redesign placement and
develop replication infrastructure http://www.lbcc.edu/PromisePathways/
• 2014: Student Transcript Enhanced Placement System (STEPS) replication of
LBCC research with 12 additional colleges http://bit.ly/RPSTEPS
• 2014: Bakersfield College and Sierra College began similar implementation
http://bit.ly/RPMMEarly
• 2014: MMAP Statewide Research & local replications: http://bit.ly/MMAP2015
• 2015: MMAP Pilot colleges: http://bit.ly/MMAPPilot
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• Examination of HS achievement for predictors of successful completion of English & math
• Focus on predictive validity (success in course) and improving completion of sequence or throughput
• Integration with the Common Assessment Initiative
• Statewide support• Research base, predictive analytics, decision tree models• Pilot colleges and faculty/staff engagement
• Webinars, convenings/summits, professional development• K-12 outreach and data population• Data warehouse and tool development
• http://bit.ly/MMAP2015
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• Colleges continue to join the project and enthusiastically inquire about participating
• 41 pilot colleges now committed, 8 more at various stages of exploration, representing more than:
• >900,000 community college students
• >40% of community college students statewide
• >8% of all community college students nationally
• 11 had pilots in place in Fall 2015
• 10 additional colleges are already matching for Spring 2016
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• English• Cumulative HS GPA• Grade in last HS English
• C+ or better in AP English class
• Score on English CST
• Non-remedial status in HS English
• Math• Cumulative HS GPA• Enrollment and grades in Geometry, Algebra II,
Trigonometry, Pre-calculus, Statistics, Calculus
• Taking a more challenging CST
• Score on math CST• Delay*
English Level Rule
Transfer HS 12 GPA >= 2.6
One level below Transfer
HS 12 GPA >= 2.2
AND
HS 12 English course
GP >= 1.8
Math Level Rule
College Algebra
HS GPA >=3.2 OR
HS GPA >=2.9
AND
Pre-Calculus C or better
Intermediate Algebra
HS 12 GPA >=2.9 OR
HS 12 GPA >=2.5
AND
Algebra II CST >= 302
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38%31%
61%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
English(n=103,510)
Math(n=143,253)
Pe
rce
nt
Tran
sfe
r Le
vel P
lace
me
nt Current Disjunctive MM
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62%
72%
62%71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Transfer-level Math Transfer-Level English
Succ
ess
ful c
om
ple
tio
n o
f tr
ansf
er-
leve
l co
urs
e
Historic success rate Projected success rate
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24%30%
41%
53%
40%
51%
73% 74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Afr Am Latino Asian White
Transfer Level English Placement
Current Disjunctive MM
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15%21%
41%
51%
22%
32%
53%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Afr Am Latino Asian White
Transfer Level Math Placement
Current Disjunctive MM
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AccelerationResults from the California Acceleration Project
Hayward & Willett, 2014 http://bit.ly/CAPEval
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• Acceleration effects were large and robust
• Acceleration worked for students of all backgrounds
• Acceleration worked for students at all placement levels
• Implementation Mattered™
35
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36
1.51.2
2.3
4.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
All English CAPpathways
Low-accelerationEnglish pathways
High-accelerationEnglish pathways
All Math CAPpathways
Acceleration Odds Ratio (Effect Size) for English CAP Colleges
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17%21%
25%30%
22%27%
32%38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Starting Place4 or More
Levels Below
Starting Place3 Levels Below
Starting Place2 Levels Below
Starting Place1 Level Below
Estim
ate
d P
erc
ent
of S
tudents
Successfu
lly
Com
ple
ting T
ransfe
r-Level C
ours
e
in S
equence
English Current Level
Comparison Accelerated
Marginal means for the percentage of students completing transfer-level English for
accelerated and comparison sequences by current level. McFadden’s pseudo-R2 = 0.15
Regression Estimated Effects – Not Raw Throughputs
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6%10%
15%23%21%
30%
41%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Starting Place4 or More
Levels Below
Starting Place3 Levels Below
Starting Place2 Levels Below
Starting Place1 Level Below
Estim
ate
d P
erc
ent
of S
tudents
Successfu
lly
Com
ple
ting T
ransfe
r-Level C
ours
e
in S
equence
Math Starting Place
Comparison Accelerated
Marginal means for the percentage of students completing transfer-level math for accelerated
and comparison sequences by current level. McFadden’s pseudo-R2 = 0.14
Regression Estimated Effects – Not Raw Throughputs
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48%
69%
58%
70%
23%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
WR 201 & 301 EXP 389
Throughput in traditional English sequence vs. accelerated: IVC fall 2012 - fall 2014
Overall rate Asian Americans African Americans
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Co-requisite AccelerationCompelling results from across the country
• Coleman, 2015 http://bit.ly/2015ALP
• CCA, 2016 http://bit.ly/CCACoreq
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• For students placed one level below in English, the Accelerated Learning Program (ALP) model involves:
• Enrollment directly in college-level English (mainstreamed)
• Concurrent enrollment in just-in-time companion developmental English course taught by same instructor
• Coleman (2015) reviewed the results of four early implementers outside CCBC at or near institutional scale
• CCA (2016) reviews results of corequisite efforts at or near statewide scale
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Coleman, 2015: Completion of College-Level English
36% 34% 37%
50%
78% 78%
62%
78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
College 1 College 2 College 3 College 4
Pe
rce
nt
succ
ess
fully
co
mp
leti
ng
tr
ansf
er
leve
l
Baseline ALP Model
Among those enrolled in one-level below course.
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Coleman, 2015: Completion of College-Level English
25%29%
46%42%
37%
55%
70%66%
76%80% 82%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
College 1 College 2 College 4
Pe
rce
nt
succ
ess
fully
co
mp
leti
ng
tr
ansf
er
leve
l
Baseline B/H Baseline W ALP B/H ALP W
College 3 Omitted from chart due to small sample size (14)for B/H
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CCA, 2016: Gateway course completion at at public two-year colleges
22%
14% 12%
63% 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NationalAverage
West Virginia Tennessee
Successful Completion of Transfer-Level Course: Math
Pre-reform (2 years) Co-Requisite (1 semester)
22%
37%31%
68%64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NationalAverage
West Virginia Tennessee
Successful Completion of Transfer-Level Course: English
Pre-reform (2 years) Co-Requisite (1 semester)
Among students enrolling in remediation.
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Increasing Access to Transfer-Level Courses• Henson & Hern, 2014 http://bit.ly/LetThemIn
• Kalamkarian, Raufman, & Edgecombe, 2015 http://bit.ly/Kalamkarian2015
• Rodriguez, 2014 http://bit.ly/Rodriguez2014
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Natural experiment at Butte College
• In 2011, switched from one placement test to another
• Old test/cut scores:• 23% of incoming students
“college ready” in English
• New test/cut scores:• 48% of incoming students
“college ready” in English
8%
17%
13%
23%23%
35%
27%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AfricanAmerican
AsianAmerican
Hispanic White
Pe
rce
nt
succ
ess
fully
co
mp
leti
ng
tra
nsf
er
leve
l in
fir
st y
ear
F2010 F2012
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Developmental Math Reform – Virginia Community College System
• Intentionally increased percentage assigned to college-level math
• (Also, introduced new assessment instrument, redesigned remedial math into modular setup, increased alignment of math to educational goals)
19%
8%
43%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Placement into CollegeMath
Completion of College Mathin 1 year
Pre-Reform, Fall 2010 Post-Reform, Fall 2012
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VCCS Combination of Increased Access and Corequisite Expansion
25%37%
3%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Pre-reform, F2010 Post-reform, F2013
Completion of College English in first year
College English Co-RequisiteCollege English
43%58%
10%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Pre-reform, F2010 Post-reform, F2013
Placement into College English
College English Co-RequisiteCollege English
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• Two to five times transfer-level course completion
• Comparable or higher success rates
• Works across demographic groups & placement levels
• Tremendous equity implications
• Evidence-based assessment, placement and redesign
of development education provides a true on-ramp
into college programs and college-level work
ICOE
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• These strategies save students 1-2 semesters of developmental education on average
• Direct costs• $200-$250 per course for student (~$50/unit +books!)• $800-$1000 per course for state (~$200/unit NR fees)
• Opportunity costs even higher• Median 2012 salary of “some college” is ~$30,000/year• Students don’t lose first or median year, they lose either:
• their last year of salary or• the opportunity to retire earlier.
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Opportunity to change the future of the California Community Colleges
Sense of Scale• According to the BLS, the
Great Recession of 2008 took ~1,000,000 out of the California workforce for a year or more.
• 2.4 million California community college students have lost up to an additional year of time out of the workforce and/or have become less likely to complete their education
Fierce Urgency of Now• ~500,000 new community college
students in California every year
• “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history, there "is" such a thing as being too late. This is no time for apathy or complacency. This is a time for vigorous and positive action.”
• Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Thank you!
Terrence WillettThe RP Group [email protected]
Craig HaywardThe RP [email protected]
Mallory NewellThe RP [email protected]
John HettsEducational Results [email protected](714-380-2678)
Ken SoreyEducational Results [email protected]
Daniel LamoreeEducational Results [email protected]