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The History of Wargaming The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. AFRL Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory 6 December 2007

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Page 1: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The History of Wargaming The History of Wargaming

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.AFRL Wargaming

Plans & Programs DirectorateAir Force Research Laboratory

6 December 2007

Page 2: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering andmaintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information,including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, ArlingtonVA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if itdoes not display a currently valid OMB control number.

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7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory

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13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 2008 DoD M&S (Modeling and Simulation) Conference Presentations held in Orlando, Florida on March10 - 14, 2008, The original document contains color images.

14. ABSTRACT

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Page 3: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

DisclaimerDisclaimerThe views expressed in this briefing The views expressed in this briefing

are those of the speaker and do not are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of the necessarily represent those of the Air Force Research Laboratory or Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.the United States Air Force.

Page 4: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

My BioMy Bio

Previous Civilian positions:Previous Civilian positions:Professor of Wargaming, ACSCProfessor of Wargaming, ACSCResearch Associate, SAASResearch Associate, SAAS

Colonel USAFR (ret.) Assignments included:Colonel USAFR (ret.) Assignments included:Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info DirectorateSenior Reservist, AFRL, Info DirectorateChief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)

CoCo--author Gulf War Fact Bookauthor Gulf War Fact Book

Page 5: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

If you are professionally interested inIf you are professionally interested inWargaming you probably want to knowWargaming you probably want to know

Is it advantageous to wargame?

If advantageous, what factors degrade utility?

What can be done to increase the utility?

Page 6: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

How Do We Answer TheseHow Do We Answer TheseQuestions?Questions?

Set Up Experiments?

Page 7: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

How Do We Answer TheseHow Do We Answer TheseQuestions?Questions?

Set Up Experiments?

Find Natural Experiments

Page 8: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Strategy CycleStrategy CycleHistoryHistory

TheoryTheory

DoctrineDoctrine

PlanPlan

ExecutionExecution

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy Cycle, a way of thinking about the evolution of military thought I conceived in 1994. The thought for it arose during a meeting of Air Command and Staff College faculty. The question had been asked if our then Commandant Colonel John Warden wanted us to focus on helping our students develop into effective air campaign planners why was there so much history in the curriculum, and why so much theory. I defended the inclusion of history arguing that history was a very valuable tool for the strategist, providing a tool box of ideas on what worked and what did not work in the past. I also defended the inclusion of theory, asserting as no one could learn all military history in one lifetime (though some of our faculty appeared to be trying) theory provided a relatively brief overview of history. Yet theory alone was not enough, we needed to learn enough history to assess the validity theories. By now I was at the white board and on a role. I then said even history and theory was not enough as for organizations to function effectively they needed to share common theories. I said theories we agree with as organizations are doctrines. Then I said, even this is not enough as doctrine is general, we need to study how doctrine can be applied to develop specific plans. Most plans are never executed but when they are they become a additional piece of history and the process (should) repeat.
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Other Reasons to Other Reasons to Learn The History Of Wargaming?Learn The History Of Wargaming?

Gives credit to those who advanced the field

It provides “the rest of the story”

It’s interesting

Page 10: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

In the BeginningIn the Beginning

It all started with language It all started with language -- and toysand toys

The Royal ToysThe Royal Toys

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In the BeginningIn the Beginning

EgyptEgyptEgyptEgypt EgyptEgyptRomeRome EgyptEgyptChinaChina EgyptEgyptIndiaIndia

Page 13: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

On The BrinkOn The Brink

FredrickFredrick‘‘s use of mapss use of maps

Clerk models navalClerk models naval combatcombat

Abstract games growAbstract games grow less abstract:less abstract:1664 Koinigspiel1664 Koinigspiel1780 Kriegschach1780 Kriegschach1797 New Kriegspiel1797 New Kriegspiel

Page 14: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The Long HairedThe Long HairedRevolutionaryRevolutionary

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NapoleonNapoleon’’s Advantagess Advantages

Technology

Genius

Meritocracy

Numbers

Page 17: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The Origins of Modern WargamingThe Origins of Modern Wargaming

1811 1811 -- Herr von Reisswitz Herr von Reisswitz -- a base of sanda base of sand1824 1824 -- Lt Reisswitz Lt Reisswitz -- the expanding circlethe expanding circle

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-- OffsiteOffsite-- Brain StormingBrain Storming-- WargameWargame-- ExerciseExercise-- Deliberate PlanningDeliberate Planning

MoltkeMoltke’’s Processs Process

Page 20: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World Wide WargamingWorld Wide Wargaming

AustroAustro--HungarianHungarian

EnglandEngland

ItalyItaly

FranceFrance

RussiaRussia

Secondary diffusionSecondary diffusion

1820 / 1875 / 19051820 / 1875 / 1905

1874 / 18891874 / 1889

18731873

1872 / 18831872 / 1883

18661866

Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.

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Coming to AmericaComing to America

1883 1883 -- Major LivermoreMajor Livermore

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Coming to AmericaComing to America

1886 1886 -- US Naval War CollegeUS Naval War College

1883 1883 -- Major LivermoreMajor Livermore

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Coming to AmericaComing to America

1900 1900 -- US Army War CollegeUS Army War College

1886 1886 -- US Naval War CollegeUS Naval War College

1883 1883 -- Major LivermoreMajor Livermore

Page 27: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

InnovationInnovationEgyptEgyptMoralMoral

FactorsFactors EgyptEgyptFreeFreeWarWar--

gaminggaming

Innovation & Decline in GermanyInnovation & Decline in Germany

InnovationInnovation

DeclineDecline

EgyptEgyptMoraleMoraleFactorsFactors EgyptEgypt

FreeFreeWarWar--

gaminggaming

EgyptEgyptFaceFaceTimeTimeEgyptEgypt

CmdCmdInfluInflu--enceence

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Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingBirth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Reserve ConnectionThe Reserve Connection

18731873-- WilkinsonWilkinson -- one manone man’’s impacts impact

1890s Delbr1890s Delbrüück ck -- first duty of the new rulersfirst duty of the new rulers

Page 29: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingBirth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe PopularizesThe Popularizes

Page 30: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingBirth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe PopularizesThe Popularizes

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Wargaming the Great WarWargaming the Great War

PrePre--war Wargamingwar Wargaming

1905 The wargames that shaped the world1905 The wargames that shaped the world

1910s Moltke the Younger and the return1910s Moltke the Younger and the return of rigorof rigor

1914 The wg that didn1914 The wg that didn’’t change historyt change history

Wargaming & the Great WarWargaming & the Great War

The Peace offensive The Peace offensive -- the limits ofthe limits of „„force on forceforce on force““ wargamingwargaming

Page 32: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Germany Germany –– StratStrat Innovation > Innovation > ““Blood & SoilBlood & Soil””

-- OppOpp Innovation > BlitzkriegInnovation > Blitzkrieg

Inter War WargamingInter War Wargaming

Page 33: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Strategy CycleStrategy CycleHistoryHistory

TheoryTheory

DoctrineDoctrine

PlanPlan

ExecutionExecution

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy Cycle, a way of thinking about the evolution of military thought I conceived in 1994. The thought for it arose during a meeting of Air Command and Staff College faculty. The question had been asked if our then Commandant Colonel John Warden wanted us to focus on helping our students develop into effective air campaign planners why was there so much history in the curriculum, and why so much theory. I defended the inclusion of history arguing that history was a very valuable tool for the strategist, providing a tool box of ideas on what worked and what did not work in the past. I also defended the inclusion of theory, asserting as no one could learn all military history in one lifetime (though some of our faculty appeared to be trying) theory provided a relatively brief overview of history. Yet theory alone was not enough, we needed to learn enough history to assess the validity theories. By now I was at the white board and on a role. I then said even history and theory was not enough as for organizations to function effectively they needed to share common theories. I said theories we agree with as organizations are doctrines. Then I said, even this is not enough as doctrine is general, we need to study how doctrine can be applied to develop specific plans. Most plans are never executed but when they are they become a additional piece of history and the process (should) repeat.
Page 34: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Strategy CycleStrategy CycleHistoryHistory

TheoryTheory

DoctrineDoctrine

PlanPlan

WargameWargame

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy Cycle, a way of thinking about the evolution of military thought I conceived in 1994. The thought for it arose during a meeting of Air Command and Staff College faculty. The question had been asked if our then Commandant Colonel John Warden wanted us to focus on helping our students develop into effective air campaign planners why was there so much history in the curriculum, and why so much theory. I defended the inclusion of history arguing that history was a very valuable tool for the strategist, providing a tool box of ideas on what worked and what did not work in the past. I also defended the inclusion of theory, asserting as no one could learn all military history in one lifetime (though some of our faculty appeared to be trying) theory provided a relatively brief overview of history. Yet theory alone was not enough, we needed to learn enough history to assess the validity theories. By now I was at the white board and on a role. I then said even history and theory was not enough as for organizations to function effectively they needed to share common theories. I said theories we agree with as organizations are doctrines. Then I said, even this is not enough as doctrine is general, we need to study how doctrine can be applied to develop specific plans. Most plans are never executed but when they are they become a additional piece of history and the process (should) repeat.
Page 35: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Germany Germany –– StratStrat Innovation > Innovation > ““Blood & SoilBlood & Soil””

-- OppOpp Innovation > BlitzkriegInnovation > Blitzkrieg

USUS

Germany Germany –– StratStrat Innovation > Innovation > ““Blood & SoilBlood & Soil””

-- OppOpp Innovation > BlitzkriegInnovation > Blitzkrieg

USUS

UK UK -- Negative exampleNegative example

USSR USSR -- Victory through defeatVictory through defeat

Inter War WargamingInter War Wargaming

Navy PME:Navy PME:-- Teach how to learnTeach how to learn-- Accelerate MTRAccelerate MTR

Army: Just in TimeArmy: Just in Time

Air Corps: A false dawnAir Corps: A false dawn

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Early Flight Simulators
Page 36: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

GermanyGermany

MannsteinMannstein makes his casemakes his case

Barbarossa Barbarossa -- an accurate mistakean accurate mistake

Victory at Normandy, twiceVictory at Normandy, twice

Page 37: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

JapanJapan

The Total War Research Institute The Total War Research Institute

Page 38: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

Page 39: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

Both attacks on Pearl HarborBoth attacks on Pearl Harbor

JapanJapanThe Total War Research InstituteThe Total War Research Institute

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World War IIWorld War II

Page 41: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

Both battles of MidwayBoth battles of Midway

Why did Japan keep on fightingWhy did Japan keep on fighting

Japan Japan The Total War Research InstituteThe Total War Research InstituteBoth attacks on Pearl HarborBoth attacks on Pearl Harbor

Page 42: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

UKUKBoth extremesBoth extremes

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World War IIWorld War II

UKUKBoth extremesBoth extremes

USUSUS Army Ground Forces US Army Ground Forces -- unknownunknownUS Army Air Forces US Army Air Forces -- sorely missedsorely missedUSMC USMC ““eerieeerie”” success, then..success, then..Navy success Navy success -- but ...but ...

Page 45: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

World War IIWorld War II

The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game roomhere by so many people in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise,– absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”.

Fleet Admiral Chester NimitzFleet Admiral Chester Nimitz

Page 46: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

EclipseEclipse

Did Did „„The BombThe Bomb““ makemake

wargames obsolete?

wargames obsolete?

Decline in theDecline in thestudy of warstudy of war

at the war collegesat the war colleges

Rise ofRise ofdeterrence &deterrence &

the efficient DoDthe efficient DoD

Korea seen asKorea seen asan aberrationan aberration

Page 47: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The onset of the Cold WarThe onset of the Cold War

Assumed credibility of computersAssumed credibility of computers

Prestige of Operations ResearchPrestige of Operations Research

Reaction against the management mindset Reaction against the management mindset of Vietnamof Vietnam

Why was Wargaming Reborn?Why was Wargaming Reborn?

The obsolescence of war had been greatlyThe obsolescence of war had been greatlyexaggeratedexaggerated

Page 48: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

1950s 1950s Analysis modelsAnalysis models

US US Naval Naval -- ““NEWSNEWS”” from the Naval War Colfrom the Naval War ColUSMC USMC -- Landing Force War Game seriesLanding Force War Game seriesArmy Army -- ““Aggressors,Aggressors,”” at least a startat least a startAir Force Air Force -- RAND & war gamingRAND & war gaming

InternationalInternational Soviet historical rigorSoviet historical rigor UK ORUK OR

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1960s Pentagon Games1960s Pentagon Games

US US Joint Joint -- Wargaming at the heartWargaming at the heartNaval Naval -- NWC goes to NWC goes to ““WARSWARS””Army Army -- making the case for Air Mobilemaking the case for Air MobileAir Force Air Force -- looses Skybolt, gains PME WGlooses Skybolt, gains PME WG

International International -- UK & Canadian ORUK & Canadian OR

Page 52: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Wargaming Wargaming -- The Vietnam WarThe Vietnam War

USUS

Wargame predictedWargame predicted

stalemate stalemate ---- NOTNOTcontinued to conflict resolutioncontinued to conflict resolution

Limited in theater useLimited in theater use

Wargame predicted victoryWargame predicted victory

North VietnamNorth Vietnam-- Soviet method of wargamingSoviet method of wargaming-- Partial explanation ofPartial explanation of

lack of radio use,lack of radio use,style ofstyle offightingfighting

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US US

Naval Naval -- Top Gun, to CRP, to GlobalTop Gun, to CRP, to Global

Army Army -- Tech solution to a people problem?Tech solution to a people problem?

Air Force Air Force -- Red Flag!Red Flag!

1970s Education and Training1970s Education and Training

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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Col Moody Sutter.
Page 55: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

USUSNaval Naval -- The golden age of GlobalThe golden age of GlobalArmy Army -- From III Corps to NTCFrom III Corps to NTCAir Force Air Force -- Air Force Wargaming CenterAir Force Wargaming CenterUSMC USMC –– The right wargame for each needThe right wargame for each needJointJoint

CENTCOM takes the leadCENTCOM takes the leadDARPADARPA’’ss modest innovationmodest innovation

1980s O1980s O--Plan DevelopmentPlan Development

Presenter
Presentation Notes
AFWC – Col Constantine “Dean” Pappas , USAF DARPA - Captain Jack Thorpe, USAF
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Wargaming Wargaming -- The Gulf WarThe Gulf War

US

Iraqi- Soviet method for ground forces

- a reason for the halt- US software for air

forces - a reasonthey did notfight

Exercise in the Desert Exercise in the Desert -- Patriots acceleratedPatriots accelerated

Internal Look 90 Internal Look 90 -- a reason we moved so fast?a reason we moved so fast?

Wargamers at war Wargamers at war -- the road not takenthe road not taken

Wargames in the fieldWargames in the field

The US training edgeThe US training edge

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1990s Jointness1990s Jointness

US: US: Greater Greater JointnessJointness

Service Wargames Service Wargames ““talktalk”” to each otherto each otherFewer, more Joint Fewer, more Joint ““enginesengines”” JSIMS, JWARSJSIMS, JWARS

““ExpandedExpanded”” Use: Use: Congressional LiaisonCongressional LiaisonProcurement DecisionsProcurement DecisionsTactics Development Tactics Development Force TradeoffsForce Tradeoffs

Growing use of virtual wargamingGrowing use of virtual wargaming

International: Study USInternational: Study US

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DoD Wargaming at a CrossroadsDoD Wargaming at a Crossroads

More money going to wargamingMore money going to wargaming

Relatively Relatively less less

expensiveexpensive

No No environenviron--mental mental impactimpact

Secure Secure from from

““overheadoverhead””observationobservation

Exploits Exploits more more

computing computing power for power for

less moneyless money

Credibility Credibility with with

CongressCongress

Credibility Credibility with with

CongressCongress

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DoD Wargaming at a CrossroadsDoD Wargaming at a Crossroads

More money going to wargamingMore money going to wargaming

More doubts than any time since the late 40sMore doubts than any time since the late 40s-- High Desert Storm Casualty PredictionsHigh Desert Storm Casualty Predictions-- RANDRAND’’s Base of Sand Papers Base of Sand Paper-- HQ USAF concernsHQ USAF concerns-- Irrelevance in armed conflict with SerbiaIrrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia-- ““CompetitionCompetition”” from commercial wargamesfrom commercial wargames

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DOD / Commercial DOD / Commercial War Games 1950 War Games 1950 -- 19901990

AnalysisAnalysis TrainingTraining PMEPME Prof DevProf Dev RecreationRecreation

[Bottom Up][Bottom Up]OperationalOperational

ResearchResearchModelsModels

History BasedHistory BasedWargamesWargames

[Top Down][Top Down]

Page 62: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The Rise of Commercial WargamingThe Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Accessible WargamesMore Accessible Wargames-- 1950s Charles Roberts1950s Charles Roberts-- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill-- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +-- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby-- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry

Page 63: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

The Rise of Commercial WargamingThe Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Citizens Playing WargamesMore Citizens Playing Wargames-- 1950s 1950s ThousandsThousands-- 1960s 1960s Tens of ThousandsTens of Thousands-- 1970s 1970s Hundreds of ThousandsHundreds of Thousands-- 1980s 1980s MillionsMillions-- 1990s 1990s Tens of MillionsTens of Millions

Page 64: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Commercial/DOD IntegrationCommercial/DOD Integration

AnalysisAnalysis TrainingTraining PMEPME Prof DevProf Dev RecreationRecreation

[Bottom Up][Bottom Up]Operational Reasearch ModelsOperational Reasearch Models

History Based WargamesHistory Based Wargames[Top Down][Top Down]

Page 65: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

2000+2000+

Old bothersome problems become major needsOld bothersome problems become major needs

OEF to fast to wargameOEF to fast to wargame

OIFOIF““This is not the enemy we This is not the enemy we wargamedwargamed against.against.”” Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CCLt Gen Wallace, V Corps CCHow do you wargame Phase IV?How do you wargame Phase IV?

Page 66: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Has The Above Helped Answer Our Has The Above Helped Answer Our Questions?Questions?

Is it advantageous to wargame?

If advantageous, what factors degrade utility?

What can be done to increase the utility?

Page 67: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

Is it advantageous to wargame?Is it advantageous to wargame?

YES!

Education & TrainingGerman War College – NWC wargamesLouisiana Maneuvers – Red Flag - Virtual Battles

Doctrinal Development & Tech UtilityMobile Opps, wolf Packs – CV/ Amphib

Operations PlanningFall of France – Drive on Baghdad

Page 68: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

What Factors Degrade Utility?What Factors Degrade Utility?

Command InfluenceCommand Influence

Red and/or Blue not followingRed and/or Blue not following the anticipated strategythe anticipated strategy

Model omits a factor that is decisiveModel omits a factor that is decisive in conflict depictedin conflict depicted

Critical juncture in conflict occursCritical juncture in conflict occurs after end of game timeafter end of game time

Very Improbably events occurVery Improbably events occur

Page 69: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

What can be done to increase the utility?What can be done to increase the utility?

Page 70: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

HistoryHistory–– The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990–– http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.htmlhttp//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.html

NewsNews–– http://www.msrr.dmso.mil/http://www.msrr.dmso.mil/–– http://afmsrr.afams.af.mil/http://afmsrr.afams.af.mil/–– http://wwwhttp://www--leav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htmleav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htm

To Learn MoreTo Learn More

Page 71: The History of Wargaming - DTIC · 2011-05-14 · Strategy Cycle. History. Theory. Doctrine Plan. Wargame. The organization of this book roughly parallels the structure of the Strategy

To Learn MoreTo Learn More

Go to: WWW.AU.MILGo to: WWW.AU.MIL

Pull Down: Aerospace PowerPull Down: Aerospace Power ChroniclesChronicles

Go to Fall 00 IssueGo to Fall 00 Issue

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Questions?Questions?

Comments?Comments?

Discussion?Discussion?


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