the histories, current situation and possible futures of the “adaptation” concept talk presented...
TRANSCRIPT
The Histories, Current Situation and Possible Futures
of the “Adaptation” Concept
Talk presented at the workshop “Limits to Adaptation”7-8 February 2008
Ben OrloveEnvironmental Science and Policy, UCDavisCenter for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University
Overview of talk
• Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• Three histories of adaptation
• The current situation of adaptation
• Possible futures of adaptation
• A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• The concept is clear but the application of the concept can be difficult.
• The concept is not clear.
Overview of talk
• Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• Three histories of adaptation
• The current situation of adaptation
• Possible futures of adaptation
• A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes
Three histories of adaptation
1. Common-sense, non-technical use (17th century to present)
“The action or process of adapting, fitting, or suiting one thing to another” [OED]
1610 HEALEY St. Aug., City of God 743 They..made a very ingenious adaptation of the one to the other.
1646 SIR T. BROWNE Pseud. Ep. III. xi. 130 A commixtion of both in the whole rather than an adaptation or cement of the one unto the other.
Three histories of adaptation
2. Scientific and technical uses (19th century to present)
1859 DARWIN in Jrnl. Linn. Soc. Zool. III. 50 The most vigorous and healthy males, implying perfect adaptation, must generally gain the victory in their contests [for the females].
1881 in Syd. Soc. Lex. [Sydenham Society, Lexicon of ... ] 1920 Jrnl. Gen. Phys. II. 499 The phenomenon of retinal adaptation is one of the most familiar facts of sensory physiology.
1955 Julian Steward: cultural adaptations
Three histories of adaptation
3. Applied environmental science (20th century to present)
1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards
1990s Adaptation to climate change
Three histories of adaptation
3. Applied environmental science (20th century to present)
1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards
1990s Adaptation to climate change
Articles on "adaptation" and "climate change"
0
50
100
150
200
250
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
Art
icle
s
Draft resolution to UN General Assembly (summer 1988)
1st Assessment Report (1990)
2nd Assessment Report (1995)
3rd & 4th Assessment Reports (2001, 2007)
“science” WGI: Science WGI: Science WGI: Science
“social and economic impacts”
WG!I: Impacts WG!I: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
WG!I: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
“possible policy responses to delay, limit or mitigate impacts”
WGIII: Responses
WGIII: Economic and Social Dimensions
WGIII: Mitigation
“relevant treaties and other legal instruments”
“elements for possible future inter-national conventions”
Hazards and disasters
Climate change
Integration of natural and social science
High High
Availability of technological solutions
High Variable
Availability of organizational solutions
Variable Variable
Spatial scales of threats Local to regional
Local to global
Temporal scale of threats Short to medium
Some short; mostly medium to long
Integration of economic values and human rights
High Variable
Ease of integrating solutions with other programs
Medium to high Low to medium
Three histories of adaptation
Recent shifts• Shifting from general discussion of responses
to focusing on the word “adaptation”. Between 1992 and 1995.
• Fearing that talking about adaptation would direct effort away from mitigation. Late 1990s, early 2000s. Linking adaptation and mitigation, after 2000-2002.
• Establishing the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). 2001.
Overview of talk
• Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• Three histories of adaptation
• The current situation of adaptation
• Possible futures of adaptation
• A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes
The current situation of adaptation
Social location: three contexts of discussion1. Science (natural and social science; academic
settings)
2. Policy (governments; NGOs; local bodies)
3. Public (media; Internet; meetings; conversation)
The current situation of adaptation
Social location: single ownership of the term: IPCC
Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation.
source: IPCC glossary, 3rd Assessment Report
The current situation of adaptationSocial effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of problems
Think: to which of the following does the term apply?• Climate change• Loss of biodiversity• Epidemic malaria• The HIV/AIDS epidemic• The obesity epidemic• The rise of China and India as economic powers• The decline of the US dollar• Human rights abuses• Terrorism
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of assessment.
• Comparisons of impacts – (and away from hard-to-compare sets of impacts, like
economic and cultural impacts)
• Comparisons of pathways– (and away from hard-to-formulate and changing pathways)
• Comparisons within and between populations– (and away from hard-to-define/-observe categories and to
cross-scale interactions)
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of projects and funding
• Scale (national, local)• Challenges to integrating adaptation and other
projects (the “additionality”problem)
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: what does the term adaptation make easier to see? What does it make it harder to see?
Climate change and migration.
Climate change and irreversible, non-substitutable sources.
Overview of talk
• Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• Three histories of adaptation
• The current situation of adaptation
• Possible futures of adaptation
• A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 1: “business as usual”
the term becomes more widespread
• the term becomes more diffused• the term becomes internationalized• repackaging of projects and organizations
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 2: adaptation
the term proliferates and becomes modified
• mainstreaming adaptation• adaptation and development
“Adaptation Day” first held at 2002 COP; became “Development and Adaptation Days” in 2004 and “Development and Climate Days” in 2007.
• “limits to adaptation”
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 3: transformation
new terms join the word “adaptation”
• climate risk management– reduce uncertainty in forecasts– develop new technologies– develop new institutions and organizations (e.g.
insurance)
• academic approaches– environmental history– critical geography
Overview of talk
• Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• Three histories of adaptation
• The current situation of adaptation
• Possible futures of adaptation
• A case to consider: glacier retreat in the Andes
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• Glaciers and adaptation to climate change– Timing
• At present rather than just forecast for future
– Detection• Visibility• Monitoring
– Attribution• Global scale of retreat• Links to models
“An Inconvenient Truth,” Al Gore
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• high elevation, 4600 – 5200 meters above sea level
• natural grasslands and irrigated pasture• alpaca herding: sale and barter of wool, meat,
animals.• catch-and-release hunting/shearing of vicuñas• hydropower facilities and mining exploration in
region
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• indigenous Quechua-speaking herders• centuries-long history of colonialism and land
conflicts• recent decades: violence and neoliberal
government policies. • weak presence of NGOs
Glacier retreat in Cusco
Changes in the Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, are shown between 1978 (top) and 2002. The glacier retreat during this time was 1.1 km.
Photo credit: Lonnie Thompson
Changes in glaciersCordilleras Vilcanota and Carabaya
1962 1999 2007/15
(+0.15°C)
2015/25
(+0.3°C)
2040/60
(+1.2°C)
Total area (km2) 87.42 57.60 46.12 35.13 7.89
Total volume (km3) 1.69 1.12 0.89 0.68 0.15
Max. runoff (m3/s) 7.59 5.00 4.00 3.05 0.68
Min. runoff (m3/s) 2.53 1.67 1.33 1.02 0.23
Av. runoff (m3/s) 5.06 3.33 2.67 2.03 0.46
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
glacier area
0
20
40
60
80
100
1962 1999 2007/15 2015/25 2040/60
are
a in
km
*2
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
dry season runoff
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1962 1999 2007/15 2015/25 2040/60
(m*3
/se
c)
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
Warming in the American Cordillera1990/99-2090/99
Source: Bradley et al. 2006, Threats to water supplies in the Tropical Andes
Local perceptions(“detection”)
• processes– rit’i pisiyamun “The ice and snow are
diminishing.”– rit’i chhullukun “The ice and snow are melting.”
• features– yana rit’i “black snow” [dust-covered ice]– t’oqo “holes” [moulins] – wayq’o “cracks” [crevasses]
• epistemology– sut’i “in plain sight”
interview characteristics
• 10 interviews• 7 men, 3 women
– Overlap of gender, language
• birthplace: 5 from local village, 2 from neighboring villages, 2 from adjacent provinces, 1 from elsewhere in department
• key issue: interaction of economic and cultural factors in shaping perceptions, framing, concerns
spatial and social scale
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
household localcommunity
local & nearbycommunities
communities& region
highland Peru
indi
vidu
als
temporal scale
0
1
2
3
4
5ye
ars
year
s &
gene
ratio
ns
gene
ratio
ns
gene
ratio
ns&
epo
chs
epoc
hs
ind
ivid
ual
s
local concerns mentioned in interviews
02468
1012
ind
ivid
ua
ls
mention mining by social/spatial scalelocal
village
local, nearby villages
villages, region
highland Peru
total
no 2 3 0 0 5
yes 0 2 2 1 5
total 2 5 2 1 10
mention mountain spiritsby temporal scale
years years &
gens
gens gens & epochs
epochs total
no 4 0 0 0 2 6
yes 0 2 1 0 1 4
total 4 2 1 0 3 10
number of projects mentioned in interviews
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5
ind
ivid
ua
ls
number of projects by temporal scale
years years &
gens
gens gens & epochs
epochs total
0 1 1 1 0 3 6
2 2 0 0 0 0 2
5 1 1 0 0 0 2
total 4 2 1 0 3 10
Local proposals
• alpaca breeding (4)
• water (irrigation, reservoirs, drinking water, bottled water plant) (4)
• alpaca infrastructure (health, medicine, exports) (3)
• organizations (district status, regional association) (2)
• regional infrastructure (roads) (1)
groups involved with adaptationto climate change in Cusco
• NGOs
• Local/regional government
• National plan (CONAM)
• World Bank/Global Environment Facility
• Foreign aid
Does adaptation make sense as a way to think of the herders?
• Very large scale of threats to core livelihood• Mismatch of local concerns and agencies
(government, NGOs, international aid)• Difficulty of integrating climate change and other
concerns