the gulf of maine integrated model system: a hindcast experiment from 1995 to 2006
DESCRIPTION
The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System: A Hindcast Experiment from 1995 to 2006. The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, S. Hu, Q. Xu, P. Xue and D. Stuebe. The WHOI Team: R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner. The MIT Team: P. Rizzolli and J. Wei. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System: A Hindcast Experiment from 1995 to 2006
The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, S. Hu, Q. Xu, P. Xue and D. Stuebe
The WHOI Team:
R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner
The MIT Team:
P. Rizzolli and J. Wei
Website: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu
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Regional domain MM5(resolution: 30 km)
Non-hydrostatic
Wind stress, heat flux, air pressure, precipitation via evaporation
Local domain MM5(resolution: 10 km)
ETA (32 km)Hydrostatic
Air stationsBuoy dataSatellite dataLocal network
SST (9 km)Local buoys
Assimilation
Assimilation
Nested
Nested
The Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank MM5 Weather Hindcast/Forecast Model System
Local domain
Regional domain
Sites of Surface Buoys
1. Hindcast assimilation for years 1978-2006
2. On-line forecast system
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First Generation Second Generation
Horizontal Resolution:
0.5-1.0 km in the coastal region
31-sigma levels in the vertical
Horizontal Resolution:
0.3-1.0 km in the coastal region
31-sigma levels in the vertical
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256 Processors (Intel 3.4 GHz Pentium 4)256 Gigabytes RAM, Infiniband High Speed Network 7 Terabytes disk space
Third generation of GOM FVCOMHorizontal resolution: 10 -500 m in the coastal region
Generalized terrain-following coordinates46 layers: 10 uniform layers in the surface and bottom boundary layers, respectively
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Penobscot Bay
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Boston harbor area
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1. Analysis of the 27 meteorological model results (H. Song with helps from C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley, G. Cowles);
2. Model-data comparison-GoMOOS, NS and New England Shelf (C. Chen, G. Cowles, D. Limeburner, R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu and P. Xue);
3. Data assimilation experiments (OI and Ensemble Kalman Filters) (J. Wei, Q. Xu, P. Rizzoli, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley);
4. Convert the GoM integrated model system to the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS), with upgraded meteorological model (WRF)
(G. Cowles, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley)
The Works Completed Since the Last Workshop
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Wind stress spectrum calculated from the 1978-2004 hourly wind fields
Annual peak
3-7 days
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Monthly averaged Ekman Flux onto Georges Bank
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Ts: SSTTa: Air-temperature
P: precipitationE: evaporation
Qnet: net fluxQsw: short-waveQsen: sensibleQlat: latent Qlw: long-wave
: wind stress
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Monthly-averaged surface wind stress
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Monthly-averaged net heat flux
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Monthly-averaged precipitation
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January-March
Qne
t (W/m
2)
Surface wind stress
Surface net heat flux
Decade scale1998
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NAO index via normalized negative wind stress (Jan-March)
NAO index via normalized heat flux (Jan-March)
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14(8)
7(6)
1(9)
1980 strong wind year for GB, 1990 weak wind year for GB. (numbers in bracket is for year 1990)
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2002
Buoy A: 2 m
Buoy B: 2 m
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Buoy C: 2 m
Buoy E: 2 m
2002
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FVCOM Model Validation: Comparison with CMO Observations
Time Frame: Aug 1996 to Jun 1997
Location: New England Shelf, SW of Nantucket# Moorings: 4 (Central, Alongshore, Inshore, Offshore)Oceanic Variables: velocity, temp, conductivity, bottom pressure, bottom stress.Atmospheric Variables: wind stress, heat flux, buoyancy flux.
Steve Lentz’s data
Cowles and Lentz’s work
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Temperature (Celsius) during CMO Period at Central SiteAugust 1996 - June 1997
Observed
FVCOM
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Subtidal Surface Current During CMO: Observed (red) FVCOM (black)Along Isobath (Above, ~east) and Cross Isobath (Below, ~north)
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N1/N2
Comparison between observed and model-computed surface water temperatures and subtidal velocities at site N2 in Nantucket Sound. No assimilation is included. Mooring data from R. Limeburner.
Mooring Sites
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April 2002 May 2002
June 2002
T: Temperature: red dotsT/S: Temperature&salinity: blue dots
OI Data Assimilation Experiments
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Without OI
With OI Assimilation
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Without OI
With OI Assimilation
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Without OI
With OI Assimilation
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GOMOOS station BGoMOOS Mooring Site B
First generation GOM FVCOM
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Temperature field at day 1 after assimilation
With EnKFWithout EnKF
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Time series of temperature at GOMOOS station B
1 2 34.8
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
Time (days)
Tem
per
atu
re (
o C)
AssimilationDataModel
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Velocity field at day 1 after assimilation
With EnKFWithout EnKF
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Time series of velocity at GoMOOS station B
1 2 3-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Time (days)
V
1 2 3
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Time (days)
Vel
oci
ty (
m/s
)
U
AssimilationModel
U (m/s) V (m/s)
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MASS CoastalFVCOM
Surface Wave Model
Generalized Ecosystem Model (FVCOM Module)
Sediment Transport Model(FVCOM Module)
Local Weather Model (WRF)
North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model
Satellite SSTBuoy WindsInsolation
Satellite SST, U,V
Buoy T,S,U,V
Freshwater Input
Global Tidal Model
Under developed
Existing Models
FVCOM System
KEY
Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V
PA
R
Data
BC’s
BC’s
U,V Waves, Langmuir Cells
Form Drag
assimilation
assimilation
Multi-Stage Zooplankton Model (IBM and concentration-based)
Nutrients, PhytoplanktonOcean Colors
Fish Larval Model(IBM and concentration-based)
VPR
Larval data
GoM/GB FVCOM
BC’s Inflow
Groundwater Input
Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)
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30 km
10 km
9 km
3 km
WRF
MM5
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5-day forecast
3 day hindcast
5-day forecast 5-day forecast
3 day hindcast 3 day hindcast
: The time starting for a 5 day forecast
: The time ending for a 5 day forecast
: The time zone for a 3 day hindcast with inclusion of the data asimilation : The time updating the initial condition for a 5 day forecast zone.
ETA/WRF regional/coastal forecast
SWAN/FVCOM regional forecast
SWAN/FVCOM coastal forecast
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MM5 WRF
Time: 0:00 GMT April 17 2007
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MM5 Surface Heat Flux WRF Surface Heat Flux
Time: 0:00 GMT April 17 2007
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3 km resolution results of WRF: Surface wind vectors and net heat flux
0:00 GMT April 17 2007
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Non-hydrostatic FVCOM (Lai’s thesis work)
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On-going Activities
1. Conduct the data assimilation experiments with OI and K-Filters-partially have been completed for selected year experiments
2. Validate the FVCOM-based unstructured grid surface wave model (SWAN-US).
3. Improve the model dynamics with more accurate and complete river discharges
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