the gtap data base and the eu io tables presented by terrie walmsley csilla lakatos, badri narayanan...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tablesPresented by
Terrie Walmsley
Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall
![Page 2: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation for GTAP• Increasing demand for quantitative analysis of global trade issues:
e.g. WTO-Doha Round, NAFTA, EU integration, Kyoto Protocol, China’s WTO accession.
• Historically analysis was done “in-house” in a few agencies: OECD, World Bank, FAO; and at a few university research centers.
• Combines the advantages of Agency and University approaches.• Publicly funded project, based in academia, which supports a
global economic data base and model which are:– fully documented;
– publicly available (free to contributors);
– easy to use (education); and
– accessible to non-modelers.
![Page 3: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
GTAP Data Base
• Philosophy: Find the best person in the world to do the job and sell them on it!
• GTAP establishes standards, coordinates the work and brings it together into ONE useable data base. – Global coverage: 112 regions (vs. 13 in version 1)
– Sectoral detail: 57 sectors (vs. 37 in version 1)
– 2004 base year
– Bilateral trade data/shipping margins: USDA, CPB
– Protection data: UNCTAD, CEPII, WB, OECD…
– National data bases: national collaborators
– Physical data limited to energy sectors (IEA)
![Page 4: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
I-O Structure Requirements
4
Primary
Imported
Domestic Intermediate usage
Fin
alIntermediate usage
Fin
al
Value added
UF (tax-free)
- Im
por
t d
uty
MF
Primary
Imported
Domestic Intermediate usage
Fin
al
Intermediate usage
Fin
al
Value added
UP (tax-paid)
Indirect taxes
OP
![Page 5: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
AgroSAM Project• IPTS – EU JRC, Marc Mueller with Ignacio Domínguez and
Hubertus Gay• Objectives
– AgroSAMs for EU-27 – late 2009 with a Disaggregated Agricultural Sector (AgroSAM)
– EU IO tables for GTAP v7.0 and 7.1 – The number of agricultural sub-sectors should allow:
• the incorporation of datasets from already existing economic models (e.g. CAPRI);• the reusability by other modelling systems (e.g. GTAP); • the utilisation of readily available datasets from statistical departments (e.g.
EuroStat, FAOSTAT).
– Other• A transparent and automatised routine for updating AgroSAMs• For GTAP an automated routine for converting SAMs to IO format
![Page 6: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
AgroSAM Outputs• SUPPLY & USE tables
– SUPPLY – Basic prices• Commodity taxes (vectors)• Trade & Transport Margins (vectors)
– USE – Purchaser prices• Intermediate and final demands• Factor use• Activity taxes
• ‘Missing’– Imports USE matrices
– Commodity tax matrices
– Margin matrices
![Page 7: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Common Problems faced by contributors
• Splitting Domestic and imported use matrix
• Building commodity tax matrices
• Trade and transport margins
• Dwellings
• Re-exports
• Concordances
• Negative capital stocks
7
![Page 8: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
I-O Tables Requirements
• Sectoral classification:– Full 57 sectors not required– Separate food and agriculture, energy, other
• Sign conditions: no negative flows except in changes in stocks
• Sectoral balance condition: Sales = Costs• Unusual Shares
– Entropy-theoretic technique – 'flags' strange shares
• Reject and Chopping bloc
8
![Page 9: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Unusual Shares
9
Supply Use ENTROPY Share in Representative Table
IO -Share
Oil Seeds Vegetable Oils 0.38 0.14 0.87Oil and Gas Exports 0.24 0.27 0.00Sugar Sugar 0.23 0.31 0.01Vegetable Oils Vegetable oils 0.15 0.18 0.00Financial services Financial services 0.15 0.14 0.52Forestry Forestry 0.14 0.07 0.36Other minerals Other minerals 0.13 0.26 0.03Trade Oil and gas 0.12 0.18 0.01Business services Consumption 0.11 0.01 0.17Other animal products
Cattle meat 0.11 0.13 0.00
![Page 10: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Clean, Disaggregate, Synthesize• Disaggregate
– Of the 113 regions in GTAP 7: only 36 I-O tables have all 57 sectors; no disaggregation needed
– 40 tables need agricultural disaggregation; use agricultural I-O data set.
– 17 tables need non-agricultural disaggregation; use representative table.
• Agricultural Production Targeting – (EUROSTAT: Hans Grinsted Jensen (FOI) and Hsin Huang (OECD))
• Synthesize– Create 19 composite regions.
10
![Page 11: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Composite Regions: Rules
• Match each member country to a primary region.• Match is by per capita GDP.• Match is only within geographic regions.• Composite region I-O table is linear combination of
primary region I-O tables.
11
CountryGDP
(USD B)GDP per
cap. (USD)Best
match
afg 19.0 697 lka
npl 5.6 227 bgd
![Page 12: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Volumes and Prices: IEA
energy data sets
MAcMap (CEPII and David Laborde (IFPRI) and UNCTAD). Domestic Support (OECD PSE/CSE), Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (Francois and Worz), Export subsidies (Aziz Elbehri)
protection data sets
International Data Sets: 226 Countries
Goods (COMTRADE and Mark GehlharServices (Nico van Leeuwen and Arjan Lejour, CPB and IMF)
trade data sets
C, I, G, POP: World Bank
macro data set
12
IMF
Income and Factor Taxes
Ag Production targeting and Ag IO (EUROSTAT, Hans Grinsted Jensen (FOI) and HsinHuang (OECD))
agricultural data set
![Page 13: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Construction Process
13
I-O Tables
Fitted I-O
Tables
GTAP Data Base
International Data Sets
FIT
Assemble• Eliminate changes in
stocks
• Reconcile with international data sets: Adjust the IO tables to match the macro datasets
• Entropy theoretic approach
![Page 14: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Data Assembly
14
GTAP Data Base
Assemble
ParametersPrimary Factor
Splits
FIT'ed
I-O Tables
Income / Factor Taxes
![Page 15: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Checks and Comparisons• Across Versions
– Comparison programs: aimed at highlighting large differences between the datasets associated with large flows.
– Entropy-theoretic measure and successive rescaling– Highlighted:
• improved treatment of domestic margins in EU
• Problems with dwellings
• Countries– How much did a countries IO table change during
construction?
15
![Page 16: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Satellite Datasets
• Energy volumes
• CO2 and non-CO2 emissions
• Land use by Agro zone
• Migration and remittances
• Foreign income payments and receipts
16
![Page 17: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Future Directions (v8 & 9)
• IO tables – Commodity Taxes– Dwellings– More programs
• Skill shares
• Domestic margins
17
![Page 18: The GTAP Data Base and the EU IO tables Presented by Terrie Walmsley Csilla Lakatos, Badri Narayanan and Robert McDougall](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514c71455034693478b4a8c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Theoretical BackgroundFIT Module
• Bacharach, M. (1970), Biproportional matrices and input-output change, Cambridge.
• James, M. and R. McDougall (1993), “FIT: An input-output data update facility for SALTER”, SALTER working paper 17, Australian Industry Commission.
• Theil, H. (1967), Economics and information theory, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
18