the grinnell project: small mammal responses to climate ... · ite v a lley mer c ed gr o v e c r a...
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The Grinnell Project: Small Mammal ResponsesTo Climate Change in California, the Yosemite Transect
CHRIS J. CONROY, MICHELLE S. KOO, WILLIAM MONAHAN, JUAN PARRA, SUSAN CAMERON,
JAMES L. PATTON, and CRAIG MORITZMuseum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley
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Lassen
Yosemite
Trinity
Col
orad
o R
iverS. Bernardino Mts.
S. Jacinto Mts.
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Grinnell’s life zones
150150900900
18001800
27002700 33003300 2800280022002200Elevation (m)
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OUR MOTIVATIONS TO CONDUCT THE STUDY
RIGHT TIME1. CENTENNIAL PROJECT, AKA GRINNELL RESURVEY
TO CELEBRATE 100TH ANNIVERSARY2. INVITATION FROM USGS/NPS
RIGHT COLLECTION1. FIELD NOTES 2. PHOTOGRAPHS 3. SPECIMENS
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BEYOND THE SPECIMENS:MVZ’s historical field notes (> 91,000 pages; >35,000 scanned)…
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2003upper Lyell Canyon
1915
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8 - 16 June
8 - 17 July
20 May -1 June 4 - 11 Sept
23 - 31 July
4 - 14 Aug
2003
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2004
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2005
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Survey Elevation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Period
2003 2004
2005 historic
2003 2004 2005 1915-20
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Peaslee Creek, 4.2 mi SW La Grange, 156 ft
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Goat Ranch, 1850 ft
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Yosemite Valley, 4000 ft
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HAPPY ISLES FEN, 4100 ft
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Merced Grove, 5600 ft
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Chinquapin - Glacier pt. Road, 6500 ft
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Glen Aulin, 7800 ft
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Lyell Canyon, 10,000 ft
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Peromyscus truei
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Sorex lyelli
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Ochotona princeps
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Spermophilusbeecheyi
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Tamias speciosus
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Aplodontiarufa
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MAMMALS EXAMINED, YOSEMITE 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
SPECIES
Peromyscus maniculatus
Microtus longicaudus
Zapus princeps Scapanus latimanusSorex palustrisMicrotus californicus
Sorex monticolus
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Snel
ling
La G
rang
e
Swee
twat
er C
reek
YOSE
MITE
VALL
EY
MERCE
D GRO
VECR
ANE
FLAT
As
pen
Valle
y
GLACI
ER P
T. R
D.GLE
N AU
LIN
Merce
d La
ke
Porc
.flat
/Mt.
Hoff.
E. F
ork
Indi
an C
anyo
n
Voge
lsang
Lak
e
LYEL
L CA
NYON
Wal
ker L
ake
Willi
ams
Butte
MODERN ONLYGRINNELL ONLYSHARED
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Few high elevation species: Expansion of lower elevation limit (3800 ft)
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NO CHANGEMicrotus longicaudusMicrotus montanusPeromyscus boyliiPeromyscus maniculatusZapus princepsTamiasciurus douglasiiTamias speciosusSorex trowbridgii
RARE AND HARD TO DOCUMENTSorex lyelliSorex tenellus - New for parkPhenacomys intermediusSorex palustris
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WHY THE CHANGE IN MAMMAL DISTRIBUTION?
GROSS CHANGES IN HABITATS (PHOTOS)
CLIMATE DATA - TEMPERATURE INCREASES
VEGETATION CHANGE - EXPANDING CONIFER FORESTS
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MVZ 1367Yosemite Valley from the old Oak Flat Road
Not much change on the slopes, same shrubs still there
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1916
2005
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Vogelsang Lake, ~10,000 feet
1915
2004
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Yosemite Valley
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Herbaceous15%
Broadleaved8%
Barren21%
Shrub21%
Conifer35%
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USING YOSEMITE DATA TO MODEL CHANGES ACROSS CALIFORNIA
MODERN DATA
2003-2006
TESTING & REFINING MODELS
GRINNELL’S DATA
PASTDISTRIBUTION
MODELS
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
CLIMATE(ENVIRON.)
DATA
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Historic Climate Modeling
Juan Parra & William Monahan
Climate stations used to interpolate climate surfaces for California. Stations had at least 10 years of monthly data for the historic time period (1900 – 1940).
Many more stations to use for the current time period (1980 – 2006).
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Historic Climate Model
• Purpose: climate surface contemporary with “Grinnell” period survey data (1900-1940)
• Method: thin plate splining (ANUSPLIN)• Results: climate model to generate
bioclimatic variables & to calculate change from Grinnell period.
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Change in total precipitationof the driest quarter (current – historic). Blue represents areaswhere precipitation has decreased relative to the historic time period.Note:Prec in mm *10
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Change in total precipitationof the wettest quarter (current –historic). Blue represents areaswhere precipitation has increased during the wettest quarter relative to the historictime period.Note:Prec in mm *10
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Environmental VariablesAnnual Mean TemperatureMean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))Isothermality (P2/P7) (* 100)Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)Max Temperature of Warmest MonthMin Temperature of Coldest MonthTemperature Annual Range (P5-P6)Mean Temperature of Wettest QuarterMean Temperature of Driest QuarterMean Temperature of Warmest QuarterMean Temperature of Coldest QuarterAnnual PrecipitationPrecipitation of Wettest MonthPrecipitation of Driest MonthPrecipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)Precipitation of Wettest QuarterPrecipitation of Driest QuarterPrecipitation of Warmest QuarterPrecipitation of Coldest Quarter
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Basic MethodsSpecies Distribution Modelling
1. Selected 24 small mammal species based on sample size and geographic range criteria (see species list on next slide). Data are MVZ specimen records.
2. Used historic species occurrences (1900-1940) in conjunction with historic climate surfaces to create niche models with Maxent and Bioclim.
3. Projected historical models onto present-day climate surfaces and assessed statewide model performance using modern point locality data (1980-2006).
MaxEnt&
BIOCLIM
Historic Climate
Data
SpeciesData
Assessment with Current Climate &Current Sampling
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Peromyscus boyliiSorex trowbridgiiTamias quadrimaculatus
Transition
Peromyscus trueiReithrodontomys megalotis
Chaetodipus californicusDipodomys heermanniDipodomys panamintinus
LowerSonoran
Spermophilus beecheyiSpermophilus lateralisThomomys bottae
Tamias senexTamias speciosusThomomys monticolaZapus princeps
Glaucomys sabrinusMicrotus californicusMicrotus longicaudusPeromyscus maniculatus
Generalist
Microtus montanusOchotona princepsSpermophilus beldingiTamias alpinusTamias amoenus
Boreal
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Generated from DIVA-GIS
BIOCLIMBIOCLIM(Nix 1986)(Nix 1986)
00--100100 percentilepercentile2.5 2.5 --97.5 percentile97.5 percentile
5 5 -- 9595 percentilepercentile
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MaxEnt(Phillips, Dudik, and Schapire 2004;
Phillips, Anderson, and Schapire 2005)• Maximum Entropy framework• Machine learning algorithm• Uses presence-only data• Can use continuous or categorical
environmental data• Weights environmental variables one
iteration at a time to maximize the likelihood of optimum probability distribution
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Model projections: Grinnell present
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Lodgepole chipmunk Tamias speciosus Boreal
Maxent
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California Vole Microtus californicus Generalist
Maxent Bioclim
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Projected Range Gain
Projected Range Loss
GeneralistSpermophilus lateralis
GeneralistPeromyscus maniculatus
Lower SonoranPeromyscus truei
GeneralistMicrotus longicaudus
GeneralistGlaucomys sabrinus
Lower SonoranChaetodipus californicus
Lower TransitionPeromyscus boylii
BorealTamias alpinus
BorealZapus princeps
Lower SonoranDipodomys panamintinus
BorealTamias speciosus
BorealThomomys monticola
BorealTamias amoenus
Lower TransitionTamias quadrimaculatus
BorealMicrotus montanus
BorealTamias senex
GeneralistMicrotus californicus
GeneralistThomomys bottae
Lower SonoranDipodomys heermanni
GeneralistSpermophilus beecheyi
BorealSpermophilus beldingi
BorealOchotona princeps
Lower TransitionSorex trowbridgii
Lower SonoranReithrodontomys megalotis
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ONGOING WORK
FIELDWORKNEW SITES IN YOSEMITE - BASELINE, GROUNDTRUTHING REVISITING SITES - GROUNDTRUTHING, INTERANNUAL VARIATION LASSEN PROJECT - ONGOINGBOREAL/ALPINE PROJECT - PROJECTED (FUNDING PENDING)
MODELING OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS
ANCIENT DNA STUDIESPOPULATION LEVEL STUDIES
CLIMATE MODELLINGFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
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Grinnell Life Zones
Grinnell Resurvey Project:
Realizing his vision of using museum specimens to document and understand patterns and change in the natural world.
•Ongoing research
•Collaborators welcome
• Input from climatologists!
MVZ.BERKELEY.EDU
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