the great recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • ikb abcp conduit...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Great RecessionEvents, Policy Responses, Root Causes and Lessons
Today’s Discussion:Fabrice Tourre (CBS – Finance Department)
May 8, 2019
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Roadmap
1. Timeline of key facts
2. Policy responses
3. Likely causes of the boom-bust
4. Lessons
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Part I
Timeline of the Key Facts
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US Housing Boom: 1999 – 2006
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US Housing Boom: 1999 – 2006
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US Household Leverage
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Structure of US Housing Finance Market
Q2 1999 - Q2 2006: 44% cumulative real house price growth in the US
Housing �nance in the US at the time
• Conforming mortgages
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (mortgage “agencies”)• conforming limits• LTV and DTI ratios• most conforming mortgages securitized into “agency MBS”
• Private label mortgages
• ARMs, hybrid ARMs• sub-prime, alt-A (or “mid-prime”), HELOCs• most private-label mortgages securitized into “non-agency MBS”
![Page 8: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Structure of US Housing Finance Market
Q2 1999 - Q2 2006: 44% cumulative real house price growth in the US
Housing �nance in the US at the time
• Conforming mortgages• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (mortgage “agencies”)• conforming limits• LTV and DTI ratios• most conforming mortgages securitized into “agency MBS”
• Private label mortgages
• ARMs, hybrid ARMs• sub-prime, alt-A (or “mid-prime”), HELOCs• most private-label mortgages securitized into “non-agency MBS”
![Page 9: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Structure of US Housing Finance Market
Q2 1999 - Q2 2006: 44% cumulative real house price growth in the US
Housing �nance in the US at the time
• Conforming mortgages• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (mortgage “agencies”)• conforming limits• LTV and DTI ratios• most conforming mortgages securitized into “agency MBS”
• Private label mortgages• ARMs, hybrid ARMs• sub-prime, alt-A (or “mid-prime”), HELOCs• most private-label mortgages securitized into “non-agency MBS”
![Page 10: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Structure of US Housing Finance Market
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Structure of US Housing Finance Market
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Originate and Distribute Business Model
• Non-agency mortgages (subprime, alt-A, HELOCs, etc)
• Residential mortgages originated by specialty mortgage lenders
• New Century• Ameriquest• Fremont• Trump Mortgages etc...
• Once originated, mortgage pools sold to Wall-street �rms
• Wall-street �rms aggregate loan pools and securitize
• RMBS bonds sold to:
• Mortgage agencies, banks, ABCP conduits, �nancial guaranty insurancecompanies and securities lenders for the triple-A risk;
• ABS CDOs for the double-A through triple-B risk;• Hedge funds or retained by the sponsor for the equity risk
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Originate and Distribute Business Model
• Non-agency mortgages (subprime, alt-A, HELOCs, etc)
• Residential mortgages originated by specialty mortgage lenders• New Century• Ameriquest• Fremont• Trump Mortgages etc...
• Once originated, mortgage pools sold to Wall-street �rms
• Wall-street �rms aggregate loan pools and securitize
• RMBS bonds sold to:
• Mortgage agencies, banks, ABCP conduits, �nancial guaranty insurancecompanies and securities lenders for the triple-A risk;
• ABS CDOs for the double-A through triple-B risk;• Hedge funds or retained by the sponsor for the equity risk
![Page 14: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Originate and Distribute Business Model
• Non-agency mortgages (subprime, alt-A, HELOCs, etc)
• Residential mortgages originated by specialty mortgage lenders• New Century• Ameriquest• Fremont• Trump Mortgages etc...
• Once originated, mortgage pools sold to Wall-street �rms
• Wall-street �rms aggregate loan pools and securitize
• RMBS bonds sold to:
• Mortgage agencies, banks, ABCP conduits, �nancial guaranty insurancecompanies and securities lenders for the triple-A risk;
• ABS CDOs for the double-A through triple-B risk;• Hedge funds or retained by the sponsor for the equity risk
![Page 15: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Originate and Distribute Business Model
• Non-agency mortgages (subprime, alt-A, HELOCs, etc)
• Residential mortgages originated by specialty mortgage lenders• New Century• Ameriquest• Fremont• Trump Mortgages etc...
• Once originated, mortgage pools sold to Wall-street �rms
• Wall-street �rms aggregate loan pools and securitize
• RMBS bonds sold to:
• Mortgage agencies, banks, ABCP conduits, �nancial guaranty insurancecompanies and securities lenders for the triple-A risk;
• ABS CDOs for the double-A through triple-B risk;• Hedge funds or retained by the sponsor for the equity risk
![Page 16: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Originate and Distribute Business Model
• Non-agency mortgages (subprime, alt-A, HELOCs, etc)
• Residential mortgages originated by specialty mortgage lenders• New Century• Ameriquest• Fremont• Trump Mortgages etc...
• Once originated, mortgage pools sold to Wall-street �rms
• Wall-street �rms aggregate loan pools and securitize
• RMBS bonds sold to:• Mortgage agencies, banks, ABCP conduits, �nancial guaranty insurancecompanies and securities lenders for the triple-A risk;
• ABS CDOs for the double-A through triple-B risk;• Hedge funds or retained by the sponsor for the equity risk
![Page 17: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Subprime RMBS Securitization Example
$100 Notional
Sub-primeMortgages
RMBS Transaction
Agencies, Banks, Monolines, Securities Lenders
ABCP Conduits
High GradeABS CDOs
Mezzanine ABS CDOs
Hedge Funds,Bank Sponsors
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Non-Agency Residential Mortgage Backed Securities
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Non-Agency Residential Mortgage Backed Securities
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Early 2007: cracks in the foundations – ABX Prices
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Early 2007: cracks in the foundations
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Summer 2007: credit market freeze
• July 2007
• failure of Bear Sterns Asset Management hedge funds• IKB ABCP conduit collapses
• August 2007
• BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment funds• Countrywide taps its credit lines• Sachsen LB’s ABCP conduit fails to roll its CP• Canadian ABCP liquidity crisis• Fed decreases discount rate by 50bps
• September 2007
• Fed cuts federal funds target by 50bps
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Summer 2007: credit market freeze
• July 2007• failure of Bear Sterns Asset Management hedge funds• IKB ABCP conduit collapses
• August 2007
• BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment funds• Countrywide taps its credit lines• Sachsen LB’s ABCP conduit fails to roll its CP• Canadian ABCP liquidity crisis• Fed decreases discount rate by 50bps
• September 2007
• Fed cuts federal funds target by 50bps
![Page 24: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Summer 2007: credit market freeze
• July 2007• failure of Bear Sterns Asset Management hedge funds• IKB ABCP conduit collapses
• August 2007• BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment funds• Countrywide taps its credit lines• Sachsen LB’s ABCP conduit fails to roll its CP• Canadian ABCP liquidity crisis• Fed decreases discount rate by 50bps
• September 2007
• Fed cuts federal funds target by 50bps
![Page 25: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Summer 2007: credit market freeze
• July 2007• failure of Bear Sterns Asset Management hedge funds• IKB ABCP conduit collapses
• August 2007• BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment funds• Countrywide taps its credit lines• Sachsen LB’s ABCP conduit fails to roll its CP• Canadian ABCP liquidity crisis• Fed decreases discount rate by 50bps
• September 2007• Fed cuts federal funds target by 50bps
![Page 26: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Summer 2007: credit market freeze
• July 2007 – S&P 500 (end of July): 1,455• failure of Bear Sterns Asset Management hedge funds• IKB ABCP conduit collapses
• August 2007 – S&P 500 (end of August): 1,473• BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment funds• Countrywide taps its credit lines• Sachsen LB’s ABCP conduit fails to roll its CP• Canadian ABCP liquidity crisis• Fed decreases discount rate by 50bps
• September 2007 – S&P 500 (end of September): 1,526• Fed cuts federal funds target by 50bps
![Page 27: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Fall 2007 and Winter 2008: Bear’s collapse
• Fall 2007
• Collapse of $ 300bn of SIVs• Fed cuts federal funds target by
• 50bps (Sep. 2007)• 25bps (Oct. 2007)• 25bps (Dec. 2007)
• Emergency liquidity provided by BofE to Northern Rock• Cross-currency swap lines between main central banks• Fed announces term auction facility (“TAF”)
• Winter 2008
• Bear Sterns’ collapse, acquisition by JPM, Maiden Lane I• Fed introduces Primary Dealers’ funding facilities
• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility
![Page 28: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Fall 2007 and Winter 2008: Bear’s collapse
• Fall 2007• Collapse of $ 300bn of SIVs• Fed cuts federal funds target by
• 50bps (Sep. 2007)• 25bps (Oct. 2007)• 25bps (Dec. 2007)
• Emergency liquidity provided by BofE to Northern Rock• Cross-currency swap lines between main central banks• Fed announces term auction facility (“TAF”)
• Winter 2008
• Bear Sterns’ collapse, acquisition by JPM, Maiden Lane I• Fed introduces Primary Dealers’ funding facilities
• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility
![Page 29: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Fall 2007 and Winter 2008: Bear’s collapse
• Fall 2007• Collapse of $ 300bn of SIVs• Fed cuts federal funds target by
• 50bps (Sep. 2007)• 25bps (Oct. 2007)• 25bps (Dec. 2007)
• Emergency liquidity provided by BofE to Northern Rock• Cross-currency swap lines between main central banks• Fed announces term auction facility (“TAF”)
• Winter 2008• Bear Sterns’ collapse, acquisition by JPM, Maiden Lane I• Fed introduces Primary Dealers’ funding facilities
• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility
![Page 30: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Fall 2007 and Winter 2008: Bear’s collapse
• Fall 2007 – S&P 500 (end of December 2007): 1,468• Collapse of $ 300bn of SIVs• Fed cuts federal funds target by
• 50bps (Sep. 2007)• 25bps (Oct. 2007)• 25bps (Dec. 2007)
• Emergency liquidity provided by BofE to Northern Rock• Cross-currency swap lines between main central banks• Fed announces term auction facility (“TAF”)
• Winter 2008 – S&P 500 (end of March 2008): 1,322 (down 10% in 3 mo)• Bear Sterns’ collapse, acquisition by JPM, Maiden Lane I• Fed introduces Primary Dealers’ funding facilities
• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility
![Page 31: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 32: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship
• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 33: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch
• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 34: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG
• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 35: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”
• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 36: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds
• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 37: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies
• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 38: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual
• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
![Page 39: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282
• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep
• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
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September 2008: Armageddon
• S&P 500 on August 31: 1,282• Sep 6: Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship• Sep 15: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers• Sep 15: Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch• Sep 16: Primary Reserve Fund “breaks the buck”• Sep 16: $85bn emergency Fed loan to AIG• Sep 18: Fed announces “ABCP money market fund liquidity facility”• Sep 19: US Treasury temporary insurance of money market funds• Sep 21: GS and MS become bank holding companies• Sep 25: Largest bank failure in history: Washington Mutual• Sep 29: TARP rejected by house of rep• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166 (down 9% in 1 mo)
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October 2008: Armageddon continues
• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166• Oct 3: $700bn TARP approved by US congress• Oct 3: FDIC insurance coverage increased to $250,000• Oct 14: FDIC guarantees bank debt under 3 years• Oct 14: TARP funds used for bank capital injections• S&P 500 on October 31: 968 (down 17% in 1 mo)
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October 2008: Armageddon continues
• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166
• Oct 3: $700bn TARP approved by US congress• Oct 3: FDIC insurance coverage increased to $250,000
• Oct 14: FDIC guarantees bank debt under 3 years• Oct 14: TARP funds used for bank capital injections• S&P 500 on October 31: 968 (down 17% in 1 mo)
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October 2008: Armageddon continues
• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166
• Oct 3: $700bn TARP approved by US congress• Oct 3: FDIC insurance coverage increased to $250,000• Oct 14: FDIC guarantees bank debt under 3 years• Oct 14: TARP funds used for bank capital injections
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968 (down 17% in 1 mo)
![Page 44: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
October 2008: Armageddon continues
• S&P 500 on September 30: 1,166• Oct 3: $700bn TARP approved by US congress• Oct 3: FDIC insurance coverage increased to $250,000• Oct 14: FDIC guarantees bank debt under 3 years• Oct 14: TARP funds used for bank capital injections• S&P 500 on October 31: 968 (down 17% in 1 mo)
![Page 45: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
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Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968
• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1
• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
![Page 47: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968
• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed
• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
![Page 48: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968
• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”
• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
![Page 49: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968
• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed
• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
![Page 50: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Fall 2008 and Winter 2009
• S&P 500 on October 31: 968• Nov 2008: Fed starts QE1• Nov 23, 2008: Citi receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• Dec 2008: Fed funds rate hits “zero lower bound”• Jan 16, 2009: BofA receives assistance from Treasury, FDIC and Fed• S&P 500 on March 31: 797 (down 18% in 5 mo)
![Page 51: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Part II
Policy Responses
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Conventional Monetary Policy
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Conventional Monetary Policy in Denmark
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Unconventional monetary policy interventions
• The “Alphabet” Soup of Funding Programs
• Term Auction Facility• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility• ABCP Money Market Mutual Funds Liquidity Facility• Bank debt guarantees (by the FDIC)
• Quantitative Easing: purchase of agency MBS and treasuries
• QE1 in Nov 2008• QE2 in Nov 2010• QE3 from Sep 2012 to Oct 2014
• Forward Guidance
• Central banks coordination: cross-currency swap lines
![Page 55: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Unconventional monetary policy interventions
• The “Alphabet” Soup of Funding Programs• Term Auction Facility• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility• ABCP Money Market Mutual Funds Liquidity Facility• Bank debt guarantees (by the FDIC)
• Quantitative Easing: purchase of agency MBS and treasuries
• QE1 in Nov 2008• QE2 in Nov 2010• QE3 from Sep 2012 to Oct 2014
• Forward Guidance
• Central banks coordination: cross-currency swap lines
![Page 56: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Unconventional monetary policy interventions
• The “Alphabet” Soup of Funding Programs• Term Auction Facility• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility• ABCP Money Market Mutual Funds Liquidity Facility• Bank debt guarantees (by the FDIC)
• Quantitative Easing: purchase of agency MBS and treasuries• QE1 in Nov 2008• QE2 in Nov 2010• QE3 from Sep 2012 to Oct 2014
• Forward Guidance
• Central banks coordination: cross-currency swap lines
![Page 57: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Unconventional monetary policy interventions
• The “Alphabet” Soup of Funding Programs• Term Auction Facility• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility• ABCP Money Market Mutual Funds Liquidity Facility• Bank debt guarantees (by the FDIC)
• Quantitative Easing: purchase of agency MBS and treasuries• QE1 in Nov 2008• QE2 in Nov 2010• QE3 from Sep 2012 to Oct 2014
• Forward Guidance
• Central banks coordination: cross-currency swap lines
![Page 58: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Unconventional monetary policy interventions
• The “Alphabet” Soup of Funding Programs• Term Auction Facility• Primary Dealer Credit Facility• Term Securities Lending Facility• ABCP Money Market Mutual Funds Liquidity Facility• Bank debt guarantees (by the FDIC)
• Quantitative Easing: purchase of agency MBS and treasuries• QE1 in Nov 2008• QE2 in Nov 2010• QE3 from Sep 2012 to Oct 2014
• Forward Guidance
• Central banks coordination: cross-currency swap lines
![Page 59: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Unconventional monetary policy – Fed balance-sheet
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Unconventional monetary policy – rates
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Government Intervention and Fiscal Policy
• $800bn Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”)
• $200bn for bank preferred stock purchases• $70bn for AIG preferred stock purchases• $40bn for Citi and BofA additional stock purchases• $80bn for US auto makers’ �nance companies
• Housing stabilization programs
• Home A�ordable Modi�cation Program (“HAMP”)• Home A�ordable Re�nance Program (“HARP”)
• $800bn American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
• Tax incentives for individuals• Tax incentives for �rms• Infrastructure investments• Extension of unemployment bene�ts
![Page 62: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Government Intervention and Fiscal Policy
• $800bn Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”)• $200bn for bank preferred stock purchases• $70bn for AIG preferred stock purchases• $40bn for Citi and BofA additional stock purchases• $80bn for US auto makers’ �nance companies
• Housing stabilization programs
• Home A�ordable Modi�cation Program (“HAMP”)• Home A�ordable Re�nance Program (“HARP”)
• $800bn American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
• Tax incentives for individuals• Tax incentives for �rms• Infrastructure investments• Extension of unemployment bene�ts
![Page 63: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Government Intervention and Fiscal Policy
• $800bn Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”)• $200bn for bank preferred stock purchases• $70bn for AIG preferred stock purchases• $40bn for Citi and BofA additional stock purchases• $80bn for US auto makers’ �nance companies
• Housing stabilization programs• Home A�ordable Modi�cation Program (“HAMP”)• Home A�ordable Re�nance Program (“HARP”)
• $800bn American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
• Tax incentives for individuals• Tax incentives for �rms• Infrastructure investments• Extension of unemployment bene�ts
![Page 64: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Government Intervention and Fiscal Policy
• $800bn Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”)• $200bn for bank preferred stock purchases• $70bn for AIG preferred stock purchases• $40bn for Citi and BofA additional stock purchases• $80bn for US auto makers’ �nance companies
• Housing stabilization programs• Home A�ordable Modi�cation Program (“HAMP”)• Home A�ordable Re�nance Program (“HARP”)
• $800bn American Recovery and Reinvestment Act• Tax incentives for individuals• Tax incentives for �rms• Infrastructure investments• Extension of unemployment bene�ts
![Page 65: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 66: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)
• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 67: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs
• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 68: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs
• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 69: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)
• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 70: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)
• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 71: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)
• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 72: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives
• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 73: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule
• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 74: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Government Intervention and Financial Regulation
Dodd-Frank Act
• Systemically Important Financial Institutions (“SIFIs”)• Mandatory stress tests for SIFIs• Capital surcharges for SIFIs• Order resolution plans (“living wills”)• Creation of the Customer Finance Protection Bureau (“CFPB”)• Anti-predatory lending act (Reg “QM”)• Transparency and mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives• Volcker rule• Risk-retention requirements for securitizations
![Page 75: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
International Financial Regulation
Basel III
• Capital adequacy
• Increased risk-based capital requirements (from 2.5% to 7%)• Capital surcharges, TLAC requirements for SIFIs• Non-risk based leverage ratio• Discretionary counter-cyclical capital bu�ers
• Stress testing• Minimum liquidity requirements
• Liquidity coverage ratio• Net stable funding ratio
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International Financial Regulation
Basel III
• Capital adequacy• Increased risk-based capital requirements (from 2.5% to 7%)• Capital surcharges, TLAC requirements for SIFIs• Non-risk based leverage ratio• Discretionary counter-cyclical capital bu�ers
• Stress testing• Minimum liquidity requirements
• Liquidity coverage ratio• Net stable funding ratio
![Page 77: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
International Financial Regulation
Basel III
• Capital adequacy• Increased risk-based capital requirements (from 2.5% to 7%)• Capital surcharges, TLAC requirements for SIFIs• Non-risk based leverage ratio• Discretionary counter-cyclical capital bu�ers
• Stress testing
• Minimum liquidity requirements
• Liquidity coverage ratio• Net stable funding ratio
![Page 78: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
International Financial Regulation
Basel III
• Capital adequacy• Increased risk-based capital requirements (from 2.5% to 7%)• Capital surcharges, TLAC requirements for SIFIs• Non-risk based leverage ratio• Discretionary counter-cyclical capital bu�ers
• Stress testing• Minimum liquidity requirements
• Liquidity coverage ratio• Net stable funding ratio
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Financial Regulation
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Part III
Root Causes
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Banks and ABCP conduits
• Largest buyers of non-agency RMBS and CDOs (2002-2007)
• Via liquidity backstops, banks e�ectively guaranteeing credit risk ofassets purchased by ABCP conduits
ABCP Issuer Type Outstanding Outstanding 2000 - 2007(Q1 2000) (Q2 2007) % Increase
Multi-seller ∼ $340bn $651bn +91%Single-seller ∼ $50bn $227bn +354%
Credit arbitrage ∼ $50bn $296bn +388%SIVs & Hybrids ∼ $25bn $122bn +492%
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by banks
• Requirement for US banks to be “well capitalized”:
Total Risk-Based CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 10%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 6%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalAverage Total Assets
≥ 5%
• Asset risk weights are crucial and (for structured �nance bonds)entirely driven by credit ratings
![Page 84: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by banks
• Requirement for US banks to be “well capitalized”:
Total Risk-Based CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 10%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 6%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalAverage Total Assets
≥ 5%
• Asset risk weights are crucial and (for structured �nance bonds)entirely driven by credit ratings
![Page 85: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by banks
• Requirement for US banks to be “well capitalized”:
Total Risk-Based CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 10%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalRisk Weighted Assets
≥ 6%
Tier 1 (core) CapitalAverage Total Assets
≥ 5%
• Asset risk weights are crucial and (for structured �nance bonds)entirely driven by credit ratings
![Page 86: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital under Basel II: example of a AAA bond @ L+0.40%
• On the bank’s balance-sheet (Basel II, advanced IRB approach)
• 7% risk weighted asset• 8% risk based capital ratio
• =⇒ 0.56% equity capital requirement and 71% ROE
• On the bank’s ABCP conduit (Basel II, standardized approach)
• 20% credit conversion factor for eligible liquidity facilities• 20% risk weight• 8% risk based capital ratio• =⇒ 0.32% equity capital requirement and 125% ROE
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital under Basel II: example of a AAA bond @ L+0.40%
• On the bank’s balance-sheet (Basel II, advanced IRB approach)• 7% risk weighted asset• 8% risk based capital ratio• =⇒ 0.56% equity capital requirement and 71% ROE
• On the bank’s ABCP conduit (Basel II, standardized approach)
• 20% credit conversion factor for eligible liquidity facilities• 20% risk weight• 8% risk based capital ratio• =⇒ 0.32% equity capital requirement and 125% ROE
![Page 88: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital under Basel II: example of a AAA bond @ L+0.40%
• On the bank’s balance-sheet (Basel II, advanced IRB approach)• 7% risk weighted asset• 8% risk based capital ratio• =⇒ 0.56% equity capital requirement and 71% ROE
• On the bank’s ABCP conduit (Basel II, standardized approach)• 20% credit conversion factor for eligible liquidity facilities• 20% risk weight• 8% risk based capital ratio• =⇒ 0.32% equity capital requirement and 125% ROE
![Page 89: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Risk-Weights for Securitizations from Basel I to Basel II
Basel II Basel IIBasel II advanced IRB advanced IRB
Credit Rating Basel I standardized senior non-seniorAAA 100 20 7 12AA 100 20 8 15A+ 100 50 10 18A 100 50 12 20A- 100 50 20 35
BBB+ 100 100 35 50BBB 100 100 60 75BBB- 100 100 100 100BB+ 100 350 250 250BB 100 350 425 425BB- 100 350 650 650NIG deduction deduction deduction deduction
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by monoline bond insurers
• Bond insurers historically specialized in municipal bond insurance
• AMBAC, MBIA, FSA, FGIC, CIFG, XLCA• Triple-A rated• Regulated by state insurance regulators• Regulations relying on credit rating of insured portfolio• Levered up to 200 ×, avg. premium of 0.20% p.a.• “buy-and-hold” investors without mark-to-market volatility
• 2000-2007: monolines get involved in supersenior market via:
• Triple-A rated subprime RMBS risk• Triple-A corporate supersenior risk• Triple-A supersenior ABS CDO risk
• AIG FP following trend closely
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Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by monoline bond insurers
• Bond insurers historically specialized in municipal bond insurance• AMBAC, MBIA, FSA, FGIC, CIFG, XLCA• Triple-A rated• Regulated by state insurance regulators• Regulations relying on credit rating of insured portfolio• Levered up to 200 ×, avg. premium of 0.20% p.a.• “buy-and-hold” investors without mark-to-market volatility
• 2000-2007: monolines get involved in supersenior market via:
• Triple-A rated subprime RMBS risk• Triple-A corporate supersenior risk• Triple-A supersenior ABS CDO risk
• AIG FP following trend closely
![Page 92: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by monoline bond insurers
• Bond insurers historically specialized in municipal bond insurance• AMBAC, MBIA, FSA, FGIC, CIFG, XLCA• Triple-A rated• Regulated by state insurance regulators• Regulations relying on credit rating of insured portfolio• Levered up to 200 ×, avg. premium of 0.20% p.a.• “buy-and-hold” investors without mark-to-market volatility
• 2000-2007: monolines get involved in supersenior market via:• Triple-A rated subprime RMBS risk• Triple-A corporate supersenior risk• Triple-A supersenior ABS CDO risk
• AIG FP following trend closely
![Page 93: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
Credit Supply Expansion “fueled” by Regulatory Framework
Regulatory capital arbitrage by monoline bond insurers
• Bond insurers historically specialized in municipal bond insurance• AMBAC, MBIA, FSA, FGIC, CIFG, XLCA• Triple-A rated• Regulated by state insurance regulators• Regulations relying on credit rating of insured portfolio• Levered up to 200 ×, avg. premium of 0.20% p.a.• “buy-and-hold” investors without mark-to-market volatility
• 2000-2007: monolines get involved in supersenior market via:• Triple-A rated subprime RMBS risk• Triple-A corporate supersenior risk• Triple-A supersenior ABS CDO risk
• AIG FP following trend closely
![Page 94: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Bond Insurance Portfolios (Ambac, FSA, MBIA)
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The Role of Rating Agencies
Who are they
• Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
What they do
• Provide an “opinion”• Credit rating→ expected loss or probability of default• Rating based on historical data (what happens with short samples...)• For securitizations, need to appropriately model asset correlations
Inherent con�icts
• For-pro�t businesses• Issuer-pay business model
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The Role of Rating Agencies
Who are they
• Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
What they do
• Provide an “opinion”• Credit rating→ expected loss or probability of default• Rating based on historical data (what happens with short samples...)• For securitizations, need to appropriately model asset correlations
Inherent con�icts
• For-pro�t businesses• Issuer-pay business model
![Page 97: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
The Role of Rating Agencies
Who are they
• Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
What they do
• Provide an “opinion”• Credit rating→ expected loss or probability of default• Rating based on historical data (what happens with short samples...)• For securitizations, need to appropriately model asset correlations
Inherent con�icts
• For-pro�t businesses• Issuer-pay business model
![Page 98: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
The Role of Rating Agencies
Who are they
• Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
What they do
• Provide an “opinion”• Credit rating→ expected loss or probability of default• Rating based on historical data (what happens with short samples...)• For securitizations, need to appropriately model asset correlations
Inherent con�icts
• For-pro�t businesses• Issuer-pay business model
![Page 99: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
Rating Agency Process
• Quantifying structured �nance bond losses• Moody’s: E (L)• S&P and Fitch: Pr (L > 0)
• Compute portfolio loss distribution
• FICO, LTV, DTI distributions• Originator quality• Servicer quality
• Each scenario through cash�ow waterfall
• Priority of payments modeling• Counterparty credit risk• Computation of E (L) and Pr (L > 0)
• Rating based on expected (or �rst dollar) loss tables
![Page 100: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
Rating Agency Process
• Quantifying structured �nance bond losses• Moody’s: E (L)• S&P and Fitch: Pr (L > 0)
• Compute portfolio loss distribution• FICO, LTV, DTI distributions• Originator quality• Servicer quality
• Each scenario through cash�ow waterfall
• Priority of payments modeling• Counterparty credit risk• Computation of E (L) and Pr (L > 0)
• Rating based on expected (or �rst dollar) loss tables
![Page 101: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
Rating Agency Process
• Quantifying structured �nance bond losses• Moody’s: E (L)• S&P and Fitch: Pr (L > 0)
• Compute portfolio loss distribution• FICO, LTV, DTI distributions• Originator quality• Servicer quality
• Each scenario through cash�ow waterfall• Priority of payments modeling• Counterparty credit risk• Computation of E (L) and Pr (L > 0)
• Rating based on expected (or �rst dollar) loss tables
![Page 102: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Rating Agency Process
• Quantifying structured �nance bond losses• Moody’s: E (L)• S&P and Fitch: Pr (L > 0)
• Compute portfolio loss distribution• FICO, LTV, DTI distributions• Originator quality• Servicer quality
• Each scenario through cash�ow waterfall• Priority of payments modeling• Counterparty credit risk• Computation of E (L) and Pr (L > 0)
• Rating based on expected (or �rst dollar) loss tables
![Page 103: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Moody’s “Idealized” Expected Loss Table
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Subprime RMBS Capital Structure
$100 Notional
Sub-primeMortgages
RMBS Transaction
Agencies, Banks, Monolines, Securities Lenders
ABCP Conduits
High GradeABS CDOs
Mezzanine ABS CDOs
Hedge Funds,Bank Sponsors
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ABS CDO Capital Structure
Equity: $2
Triple-B tranche: $2
Single-A tranche: $2
Double-A tranche: $2
Triple-A tranche: $92
$100 Notional Double-ASubprime
RMBS
Hi-Grade ABS CDO Transaction
Equity: $6
Triple-B tranche: $6
Single-A tranche: $8
Double-A tranche: $15
Triple-A tranche: $65
$100 Notional Triple-B
Subprime RMBS
Mezzanine ABS CDO Transaction
Monolines, Banks,
Bank Sponsors
Monolines, Banks,
Bank Sponsors
Other CDOs
Hedge Funds
Other CDOs
Hedge Funds
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Rating ABS CDOs: Assumed Bond-Level Correlations
• An example: Moody’s (2005 rating methodology)
• “Add-ons”
• For regional concentration• For vintage concentration• For servicer/manager concentration
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Rating ABS CDOs: Assumed Bond-Level Correlations
• An example: Moody’s (2005 rating methodology)
• “Add-ons”• For regional concentration• For vintage concentration• For servicer/manager concentration
![Page 108: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
Maturity transformation, banking and shadow banking
Repo transactions
• Banks & broker-dealers relying on repos to �nance trading inventory• funding provided by money market funds and securities lenders
ABCP conduits and SIVs
• “sponsored” by largest banks across the world• holding long-term illiquid assets �nanced via short term debt• partial (for SIVs) or complete (for conduits) liquidity backstop• CP purchased by money market funds
Bank-sponsored puttable debt
• municipal bond market• structured �nance
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Maturity transformation, banking and shadow banking
Repo transactions
• Banks & broker-dealers relying on repos to �nance trading inventory• funding provided by money market funds and securities lenders
ABCP conduits and SIVs
• “sponsored” by largest banks across the world• holding long-term illiquid assets �nanced via short term debt• partial (for SIVs) or complete (for conduits) liquidity backstop• CP purchased by money market funds
Bank-sponsored puttable debt
• municipal bond market• structured �nance
![Page 110: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Maturity transformation, banking and shadow banking
Repo transactions
• Banks & broker-dealers relying on repos to �nance trading inventory• funding provided by money market funds and securities lenders
ABCP conduits and SIVs
• “sponsored” by largest banks across the world• holding long-term illiquid assets �nanced via short term debt• partial (for SIVs) or complete (for conduits) liquidity backstop• CP purchased by money market funds
Bank-sponsored puttable debt
• municipal bond market• structured �nance
![Page 111: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Maturity transformation, banking and shadow banking
Repo transactions
• Banks & broker-dealers relying on repos to �nance trading inventory• funding provided by money market funds and securities lenders
ABCP conduits and SIVs
• “sponsored” by largest banks across the world• holding long-term illiquid assets �nanced via short term debt• partial (for SIVs) or complete (for conduits) liquidity backstop• CP purchased by money market funds
Bank-sponsored puttable debt
• municipal bond market• structured �nance
![Page 112: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
Other considerations
Globalization of banking
• erosion of margins in traditional lending activities• international capital �ows• �nancial innovation
Moral hazard and agency problems
• deposit insurance and too-big-to-fail• �nancial industry compensation structure
![Page 113: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
Other considerations
Globalization of banking
• erosion of margins in traditional lending activities• international capital �ows• �nancial innovation
Moral hazard and agency problems
• deposit insurance and too-big-to-fail• �nancial industry compensation structure
![Page 114: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
Other considerations
Globalization of banking
• erosion of margins in traditional lending activities• international capital �ows• �nancial innovation
Moral hazard and agency problems
• deposit insurance and too-big-to-fail• �nancial industry compensation structure
![Page 115: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
Part IV
Lessons and Questions
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What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response
• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 117: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy
• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response
• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 118: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response
• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 119: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response
• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 120: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 121: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements
• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 122: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation
• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 123: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
What we have learned
Lessons drawn
• transmission mechanism from �nance to the real economy• liquidity risk and maturity transformation as sources of �nancialinstability
• regulatory response• more capital• more liquidity• more transparency• less moral-hazard
Remaining areas of concern (my views)
• Over-reliance on credit ratings for computing reg. cap. requirements• No regulation focusing on bank portfolio concentration/correlation• Systemic risk displaced towards CCPs
![Page 124: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 125: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability
• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 126: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy
• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 127: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/127.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 128: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/128.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 129: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/129.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents
• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 130: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/130.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)
• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 131: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/131.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry
• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)
![Page 132: The Great Recession - kunof.econ.ku.dk/media/1161/presentation_20190428.pdf · • IKB ABCP conduit collapses • August 2007 • BNP’s suspension of withdrawals at 3 ABS investment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052007/601b1a52fa3111690e5521a6/html5/thumbnails/132.jpg)
What about “too big to fail”?
Trade-o�s when tightening bank regulations
• greater �nancial stability• lower credit supply to the real economy• greater costs of entry exacerbating too-big-to-fail
Financial desintermediation
• derivatives moving towards exchanges and clearing houses, reducingrent seeking by banks in OTC markets
• Fin tech displacing incumbents• robo advisors in wealth management (Vanguard, Betterment)• passive investment vehicles (ETFs) pressuring mutual fund industry• peer-to-peer lending in SME space (Prosper, Lending Club)