the great august 1972 heliosphericdisturbance: what we ......• induced electric field of 7.0 v/km,...

TheGreatAugust1972Heliospheric Disturbance:WhatWeKnowNowCriticalChallengesandProgress

HourlyaveragedX-rayIntensityforMcMath Region,11976,Aug1972

DeloresKnipp, UniversityofColorado,Boulder&HAONCAR;BrianFraser,CentreforSpacePhysics,UniversityofNewcastle;MargaretShea &DonSmartRetiredUSAFResearchLaboratory

•Knipp, D. J., et al. (2018), On the Little-Known Consequences of the 4 August 1972 Ultra-Fast Coronal Mass Ejecta: •Facts, Commentary and Call to Action, Space Weather, 16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002024

25 1 167

McMath Region,11976,Ca-II

3AugOhshio (1974)BASS2000, Paris Observatory, PSL

Zirin andTanaka(1973)

McMath11976MagnetogramBBSO,Aug1972

Overview

• Oneofthemostintenseintervalsofsolar/geospace activityduringthespaceage

• Extraordinaryeffectsingeospace

SolaractivitySEPs&GLEGICs&dB/dt

• Newinsights• Driversof

Carrington-classstorms

McMath Region119764Aug1972X-rayOSO5UniversityCollegeLeicesterUniv

• Active RegionSingle large penumbra; Delta configuration1200 millionths of hemisphere Light bridge

• Extraordinary solar flares2 Aug: (2), X class & WLF4 Aug: (1), X-20 + Gamma-rays7 Aug: (1) X class & WLF

• Flare level 4 Aug 0630 UT– 3B H-alpha– X-ray – LDE flare – Combined Flare Index = 17

InitialPerspectives

BASS2000, Paris Observatory, PSL

Zirin andTanaka(1973)BBSOKoyama(1972)Tokyo

AtEarth:4August1972

Hakura (1974)

• RadioPropagationDisturbance&Blackout• Dayside&thenPolarCap

• Forbush Decrease

• RapidRiseofSEPs• ThenonsetofGroundLevelEvent(GLE24)• Spacecraftsolarpanelsdeteriorated• Sensorsoverwhelmedwithparticles• Long-lastingozonedepletion

• ExtremeForbush Decrease

• SuddenStormCommencements&ExtraordinarySuddenImpulse

X-rayFlare(reconstructed)

Ohshio (1974)

~X20flare

• Space-basedSOLRAD9&10X-raydetectorsSaturatedatX5.1

• ~X-20flare,LongDurationEvent,>16hr

• Radioburstsalsoobserved;indicativeofplasmacloudmotion

• 3hr daysideradioblackout

• Filament~0.6RS disappears

• LargestForbush Decreaseinlast6solarcycles-28%

SEPs(reconstructed)

Jiggens etal.(2014)

• ThemostintensefluxoflowandmoderateenergySEPsinthespace-age

• SignificantenhancementsaheadofCMEs--EnergeticStormParticles

• SolarPanelsonspacecraftlost5%ofpowergenerationcapabilityinthreedays

SolarWind(reconstructed)fromPrognoz &Prognoz 2

• SignificantsolarwinddensityenhancementsfrompreviousCMEs• Preconditioningofgeospace?

• Path-clearingeventspriortoshockarrivalat2054UTon4August

• FastestCMEonrecord—14.6hrsto1AU• AverageCMEtransitspeed:2850km/s

• Shock&structureswithinsheath? Vaisberg&Zastenker, (1976),Zastenker etal.(1978)

HourlyAverageSolarWindPlasmaParameters

•Knipp,D. J., et al. (2018), Space Weather, 16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002024

IMFatGeosynchronousOrbit

Cahill&Skillman(1977)

Near-noonMagnetosheathField

• ATS5(GEOS/C)inthemagnetosheath• Clearmagnetopausecompression

• RapidIMFfluctuations• InsheathaheadofICME?

• Extremesouthwardfield• -300nT insheath

• -75– -100nT inSW

SI

SSC

Sheathfield(behindIPshock,aheadofICME)


IndicesfromGroundMeasurements

Akasofu (1974)

AfterSSC

• AE>1500nT (hr avg)• |AU|>|AL|

• Dst Index:- 125nT

• ExtremeASYIndex>thanDst

SI

SSC

4-5AugShockShockShock?&ICME1/2&ICME3&ICME4

4 5

High&Mid-latitudeGroundSuddenImpluse dB/dt

• 2238-2242UTLargevoltageswingsinnorthern tierUSstates.

• TheManitobaHydroCompanyrecorded120MWdrops inpowersupplied toMinnesotainonlyafewminutes.

• OutageontheL4(AT&T)cableintheUSMidweststates• Inducedelectricfieldof7.0V/km,exceededshutdown

threshold forhighcurrent,accompaniedmagneticfieldvariations(dB/dt)of~800nT/minat2240-2242UT(thetimeoftheL4outage).

• dB/dT =2000nT/min innorthernCanada

• Newfoundland, Canada,GICsactivatedprotectiverelaysmanytimeson4-5August.

• StrongGICeffectsreported inOhioandMarylandAlbertson &Thorson, (1974),

BotelerandJansen vanBeek (1999)

• SSC2054UT

• SI2038-2242UT

• 168nT/minManila,Philippines• NeardawnLocalTime• 7deg MLAT

• SubsequentGiantPulsations

Low-LatitudeGroundMagneticPerturbations

Salcedo(1973)


HaiPhong MineField‘swept’byaSolarMagneticStormon4August1972

ByUnitedStatesNavyphotograph - ScannedfromMelia,TamaraMoser,"DamntheTorpedoes":AShortHistoryofU.S.NavyMineCountermeasures,1777-1991,Washington,D.C.:NavalHistoricalCenter,1991, ISBN0-945274-07-6,p.108.,PublicDomain,https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=32761410

Mineexplosion duringSweepingHaiphongHarbor1973

“During the first few weeks of August, a series of extremely strong solar flares caused a fluctuation of the magnetic fields, in and around, South East Asia. The resulting chain of events caused the premature detonation of over 4,000 magnetically sensitive DSTs (Destructor mines)”Gonzales, https://www.angelo.edu/content/files/21974-a

“…theHaiPhong Destructor(mine)FieldwasactuallysweptbyasolarmagneticstorminAugustof1972.”Hartmann&Truver (1991)

ProgressinUnderstandingExtremeShocks&CMEs(1)

• Tousey (1973): CoronalTransients(CMEs)observedbyOSO-7

Agrawal, etal.(1974)

• Agrawaletal.(1974)ShocksandCMEs‘organize’GCRs• PilesupandDepletions

• Earlyideaabout‘path-clearing’byCMEs

• DevelopingideasaboutForbush Decreases

• Illing andHundhausen (1983)three-partCME

• Shea andSmart(1992)Particlesacceleratedbetweenfastmovinginterplanetary(IP)structures

• SeedparticlesinIPmedium• ModifyearlierideasaboutsourcesofSEPeventsand“Protonflares’

• August72primaryexampleofcombinedForbushDecreaseandEnhancedSEPs

• Gosling(1993)CMEs(ratherthanflares)areprimarydrivingofgeomagneticactivity


http://nevod.mephi.ru

• Gopalswamy (2001)‘cannibal’andinteractingCMEs

• Liuetal.(2014)Path-clearingCMEspermitevenfastersubsequenthomologousCMEs• July2012UltrafastSTEREO-Ashock/CME

• Lugaz etal(2015)ShocksinsideCMEs


Liuetal(2014)Observationsofanextremestormininterplanetaryspacecausedbysuccessivecoronalmassejections,NatureCommunications

• Kozyra etal(2013)FilamentmaterialoriginallybehindCMEmovesthroughCMEtointeractwithshock

• Producesextremeeffectson21Jan2005

• Chatterjee(2018)demonstrateformationofadeltasunspot

• Fromthecollisionoftwoormoreyoungfluxemergingregionsdevelopinginclosevicinity.

• Formationofdensefilamentinoverlyingregion


Kozyra,J.U.,W.B.ManchesterIV,C.P.Escoubet,S.T.Lepri,M.W.Liemohn,W.D.Gonzalez,M.W.Thomsen,andB.T.Tsurutani (2013),Earth’scollisionwithasolarfilamenton21January2005:Overview,J.Geophys.Res.SpacePhysics,118,5967–5978,doi:10.1002/jgra.50567.

• Saiz etal.(2015)&Cidetal.(2105)• highsolarwindpressureandabruptreversalsoftheIMFappearastheinterplanetarytriggerofsharpgeomagneticfieldperturbationsinextremestorms.

• Possiblerootsofimpulsivefield-alignedcurrentpenetrationtomidandlowlatitudes

• ConsistentwithSSCandSIlateon4Aug72&auroraincentralEurope

• Possiblyassociatedwithsolar-drivendetonationofdozens(maybethousands)seaminesonthatdate

ProgressinUnderstandingExtremeShocks&CMEsEffectsatEarth—Carrington-classstorms

Albertson&Thorson, (1974),

Cidetal(2014)

Summary:FromSuntoMudAExtremeEventStruckEarth4Aug72• SEPsdisruptedspacecraft/missions• DestabilizedsomeoftheNorth

AmericanPowerGrid• dB/dt detonatedSeaMinesin

SoutheastAsia

• Rootedinreversepolaritydeltaspot• Eruption

• movedthrough clear-path• Carriedsolarfilamentmatieral• producedGLEandForbush

Decrease• Impulsivemagnetopause

compressionandFACs• Weareonthevergeofunderstanding

theseextremeevents• Modelswillbechallenged

•Knipp,D. J., et al. (2018), On the Little-Known Consequences of the 4 August 1972 Ultra-Fast Coronal Mass Ejecta: Facts, Commentary and Call to Action, Space Weather, 16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002024

the great august 1972 heliosphericdisturbance: what we ......• induced electric field of 7.0 v/km,...

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