the great american bubble machine - peak watch · the group - which inturn got a $300billion...

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THE group - which in turn got a $300 billion taxpayer bailout from Paulson. There's John Thain, the asshole chief of Merrill Lynch who bought an $87,000 area rugfoT his office as his company was imploding; a former GoIdm"n banker, Thain enjoyed a multi- billion-dollar handout from Paulwn, who used billions in tax- payer funds to help Bank of America rescue Thain's sorry compa- ny. And Robert Steel, the former Goldmanite head ofWachovia, scored himself and his fellow executives $225 million in golden- parachute payments as his bank was self-destructing. There's Joshua Bolten, Bush's chiefof staff during the bailout, and Mark Patterson, the current Treasury chief of staff, who was a Gold- man lobbyist just a year ago, and Ed Liddy, the former Goldman director whom Paulson put in charge of bailed-out insurance giant AIG, wbich forked over $13 billion to Goldman after Liddy came on board. The heads of the Canadian and Italian national banks are Goldman alums, as is the head of the World Bank, the head of the New York Stock Exchange. the last two heads of the From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression -- and they're about to do it again By MATT TAIBBI fiE FIRST THING YOU NEED TO KNOW about Goldman Sachs is that it's every- where. The world's most powerful in- vestment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells money. In fact, the history of the financial crisis, which doubles as a history of the rapid decline and fall of the suddenly swindled-dry American empire, reads like a Who's Who of Goldman Sachs graduates. By now, most of us knowtbe major players. As George Bush's last Treasury secretary, former Goldman CEO Henry Paulson was the architect of the bailout, a suspiciouslyself·serving plan to fun- nel trillions ofYour Dollars to a. handful ofbis old friends on Wan Street. Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton's former Treasury secretary, spent 26 years at Goldman before becoming chairman of ILLUSTRATIONS BY VICTOR JUHASZ S2· ROLI.ING STONll, JUI.Y 9-23.2009

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Page 1: The Great American Bubble Machine - Peak Watch · THE group - which inturn got a $300billion taxpayerbailoutfrom Paulson. There'sJohnThain, the asshole chiefofMerrill Lynch whoboughtan$87,000arearugfoT

THE

group - which in turn got a $300 billion taxpayer bailout fromPaulson. There's John Thain, the asshole chiefof Merrill Lynchwho bought an $87,000 area rugfoT his office as his company wasimploding; a former GoIdm"n banker, Thain enjoyed a multi­billion-dollar handout from Paulwn, who used billions in tax­payerfunds to help Bank ofAmerica rescue Thain's sorry compa­ny. And Robert Steel, the former Goldmanite head ofWachovia,scored himselfand his fellow executives $225 million in golden­parachute payments as his bank was self-destructing. There'sJoshua Bolten, Bush's chiefofstaffduring the bailout, and MarkPatterson, the current Treasury chief of staff, who was a Gold­man lobbyistjust a year ago, and Ed Liddy, the former Goldmandirector whom Paulson put in charge of bailed-out insurancegiant AIG, wbich forked over $13 billion to Goldman after Liddycame on board. The heads ofthe Canadian and Italian nationalbanks are Goldman alums, as is the head of the World Bank, thehead of the New York Stock Exchange. the last two heads ofthe

From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachshas engineered every major market manipulation sincethe Great Depression -- and they're about to do it again

-~&~-

By MATT TAIBBIfiE FIRST THING YOU NEED TO KNOW

about Goldman Sachs is that it's every­where. The world's most powerful in­vestment bank is a great vampire squidwrapped around the face of humanity,relentlessly jamming its blood funnel intoanything that smells li~e money. In fact,the history of the re~~:!t financial crisis,which doubles as a history of the rapid

decline and fall of the suddenly swindled-dry American empire,reads like a Who's Who ofGoldman Sachs graduates.

By now, most of us knowtbe major players. As George Bush'slastTreasurysecretary, former Goldman CEO Henry Paulson wasthe architect ofthe bailout, a suspiciously self·serving plan to fun­nel trillions ofYour Dollars to a. handful ofbis old friends on WanStreet. Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton's former Treasury secretary,spent 26 years at Goldman before becoming chairman of Citi~

ILLUSTRATIONS BY VICTOR JUHASZ

S2· ROLI.ING STONll, JUI.Y 9-23.2009

Page 2: The Great American Bubble Machine - Peak Watch · THE group - which inturn got a $300billion taxpayerbailoutfrom Paulson. There'sJohnThain, the asshole chiefofMerrill Lynch whoboughtan$87,000arearugfoT
Page 3: The Great American Bubble Machine - Peak Watch · THE group - which inturn got a $300billion taxpayerbailoutfrom Paulson. There'sJohnThain, the asshole chiefofMerrill Lynch whoboughtan$87,000arearugfoT

THE GREAT DEPRESSION

GOLDMAN WASN'T ALWAYS A TOO-BIG-TO-I'AIL

Wall Street behemoth, the rulhless face of kill­or-be-killed capitalism on steroids - just al­most always. The bank was actually foundedin 1869 by a German immigrant named Mar­

cus Goldman, who built it up with his son-in-law SamuelSachs. They were pioneers in lhe use of commercial paper,

IF AMERICAIS NOW

CIRCLINGTHE DRAIN,

GOLDMANSACHS HAS

FOUND A WAY TOBE THAT DRAIN.

Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York - which, incidentally, is nowin charge ofoverseeing Goldman - not to mention ...

Eut then, any attempt to construct a narrative around all theformer Goldmanites in influential positions quickly becomesan absurd and pointless exercise, like trying to make a list ofeverything. What you need to know is the big picture: IfAmer­ica is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to bethat drain - an extremely unfortunate loophole in tbe system ofWestern democratic capitalism, which never foresaw that in a So­ciety governed passivelyby free markets and free elections, orga~nized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.

The bank's unprecedented reach and power have enabled itto turn all ofAmerica into a giant pump-and-dump scam, ma­nipulating whole economic sectors for years at a time, movingthe dice game as this or that market collapses, and all the timegorging itself on the unseen costs that are breaking familieseverywhere - high gas prices, rising consumer-credit rates, half­eaten pension funds, mass layoffs, future taxes to payoff hail­outs. All that money that you're losing, it's going somewhere, andin both a literal and a figurative sense. Goldman Sachs is whereit's going: The bank is a huge, highlysophisticated engine for convertingthe useful, deployed wealth of soci­ety into the least useful, most waste­ful and insoluble substance on Earth- pure profit for rich individuals.

They achieve this using the sameplaybook over and over again. TheCannula is relatively simple: Goldmanpositions itselfin the middle ofa. spec­ula.tive bubble, selling investmentsthey know are crap. Then they hooverup vast sums from the middle andlowedloors ofsocietywith the aid ofacrippled and cormptstate thatallowsit to rewrite the rules in exchange forthe relative pennies the bank throwsat political patronage. Finally, when ilall goes bust, leaving millions ofordi­nary citizens broke and starving, theybegin the entire process over again,riding in to rescue us all by lend ing usback our own money at interest, selI­ingthemselves as men above greed,just a bunch ofreally smartguys keepingthe wheels greased. They've been pulling this samestunt over and over since the 1920s - and now they're preparingto do it again, creating what may be the biggest and most auda­cious bubble yet.

Ifyou want to understand how we got into this financial cri­sis, you have to first understand where all the money went - andin order to understand that, you need to understand what Gold­man has already gotten away with. It is a history exactly five bub­bles long - including last year's strange and seemingly inexpli­cable spike in the price of oi!. There were a lot oflosers in eachofthose bubbles, and in the bailout that followed. But Goldmanwasn't one ofthem.

BUBBLE #1

which is just a fancy way of saying they made money lend­ing out short-term IOUs to small-time vendors in downtownManhattan.

You can probably guess the basic plotline of Goldman's first100 years in business: plucky, immigrant-led investment bankbeats the odds, pulls itself up by its bootstraps, makes shit10adsof money. In that ancient history there's really only one episodethat bears scrutiny now, in light of more recent events: Gold­man's disastrous foray into the speculative mania of pre-crashWall Street in the late 19208,

This great Hindenburg of financial history has a few fea­tures that might sound familiar. Eack then, the main finan­cial tool used to bilk investors was called an ~investmenttrust."Similar to modern mutual funds, the trusts took the cash of in­vestors large and small and (theoretically, at least) invested itin a smorgasbord of Wall Street securities, though the securi­ties and amounts were often kept bidden from the public. So aregular guy could invest $10 or $100 in a trust and feel like hewas a big player. Much as in the 19905, when new vehicles likeday trading and e-trading attracted reams of new suckers from

the sticks who wanted to feel like bigshots, investment trusts roped a new'generation of regula.r-guy investorsinto the speculation game.

Beginning a pattern that wouldrepeat itself over and over aga.in,Goldman got into the investment­trust game late, then jumped in withboth feet and went hog-wild. The firsteffort was the Goldman Sachs Trad­ing Corporation; the bank issued amillion shares at $100 apiece, boughtall those shares with its own moneyand then sold go percent of themto the bungry public at $104. Thetrading corporation then relentless­ly bought shares in itself, bidding theprice up further and further. Eventu­ally it dumped part ofits holdings andsponsored a new trust, the Shenan~

doah Corporation, issuing millionsmore in shares in that fund - whichin turn sponsored yet another trust

called the Blue Ridge Corporation. In this way, each invest­ment trust served as a front for an endless investment pyramid:Goldma.n hiding behind Goldman hiding behind Goldma.n.Ofthe 7,250,000 initial shares of Elue Ridge, 6,250,000 wereactually owned by Shenandoah - which, ofcourse, was in largepart owned by Goldman Trading.

The end result (ask yourself if this sounds familiar) was· adaisy chain ofborrowed money, one exquisitely vulnerable to adecline in perfonnance anywhere along the line. The basic ideaisn't hard to follow. You take a dollar and borrow nine against it;then you take that $10 fund and borrow $90; then you take your$100 fund and, so long as the public is still lending, borrow andinvest $900. If the last fund in the line starts to lose value, youno longer have the money to pa.y back your investors, and every­one gets massacred.

In a chapter from The Great Crash, 1929 titled ~In GoldmanSachs We Trust,~ the famed economist Jobn Kenneth Galbraithheld up the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah trusts as classic exam­ples of the insanity of leverage-based investment. The trusts,he wrote, were a major cause of the market's historic crash; intoday's dollars, the losses the hank suffered totaled $475 billion.-It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was im­plicit in this gargantuan inslUlity," Galbraith observed, sound­ing like Keith Olbermann in an ascot. -Ifthere must be madness,something may be said for having it on a heroic scale,'"

64' ROLLING STONB, JULY 9-23, 1009

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BUBBLE #2

TECH STOCKS

FAST-PORWARD ABOUT 65 YEARS. GOLDMAN NOT

only survived the crash tha.t wiped out so many ofthe investors it duped, it Wellt on to become the chiefunderwriter to the country's wealthiest and mostpowerful corporations. Thanks to Sidney Weinberg.

who rose from the rank ofjanitor's assistant to head the firm,Goldman became the pioneer of the initia.l public offering, one oftheprincipal and most lucrative means by which companies raisemoney. During the1970s and 1980s, Goldman may not have beenthe planet,eating Death Star ofpolitical influence it is today, butit was a. top-drawer firm that had a reputation for attracting thevery smartest talent on the Street.

It also, oddly enough, had a reputation for relatively solidethics and a patient approach to investment that shunnedthe fast buck; its exec­utives were trained toadopt the firm's mantra,"long-term greedy'- Oneformer Goldman bank­er who left the firm in theearly Nineties recalls see­ing his superiors give upa very profitable deal onthe grounds that it was along-term loser. "We gaveback money to 'grown­up' corporate cli.ellts whohad made bad deals withus.~ he says. "Everythingwe did was legal and fair- but 'Iong-teon greedy'said we didn't want tomake such a profit atthe clients' collective ex­pense that we spoiled themarketplace.ll

But then, somethinghappened. It's hard tosay what it was exactly;it might have been thefact that Goldman's co­chairman in the early Nineties, Robert Rubin, followed Bill Clin­ton to the White House, where he directed the National &0­nomic Council and eventually became Treasury secretary. Whilethe American media fell in love with the story line of a pair ofbaby-boomer, Sixties-child, Fleetwood Mac yuppies nesting inthe White House, it also nursed an undisguised crush on Rubin,who was hyped as without a. doubt the smartest person ever towalk the face ofthe Earth, with Newton, Einstein. Mozart andKant running far behind.

Rubin was the prototypica.l Goldman banker. He was proba­bly born in a $4,000 suit, he had a face that seemed permanent­ly frozen just short ofan apology for being so much smarter thanyou, and he ex-uded a Spack-like, emotion-neutral exterior; theonly human feeling you could imagine him experiencing was anightmare about being forced to fly coach. It became almost anational cliche that whatever Rubin thought was best for theeconomy - a phenomenon that reached its apex in 1999, whenRubin appeared on the cover of Time with his Treasury deputy,Larry Summers, and Fed chiefAlan Greenspan under the head­line THE COMMITTEE TO SAVE TaE WORLD. And "what Rubinthought,~mostly, was that the AmericlUl economy, and in partic­ular the financial markets, were over-regulated and needed to beset free. During his tenure at Treasury, the Clinton White House

56 • ROLLING STONE. JULY 9-:13, 2009

made a series of moves that would have drastic consequencesfor the global economy - beginning with Rubin's complete andtotal failure to regulate his old tirm during its first mad dash forobscene short-term profits.

The basic scam in the Internet Age is pretty easy even for thefinancially illiterate to grasp. CQmpanieg that weren't much morethan pot-fueled i.deas scrawled on napkins by up-too-Iate bong­smokers were taken public via {POs, hyped in the media andsold to the public for megamillions. It was as if hanks like Gold­man were wrapping ribbons around watermelons, tossing themout 50-story windows and opening the phones for bids. In thisgame you were a winner only ifyou took your money out beforethe melon hit the pavement.

It sounds obvious now, but what the average investor didn'tknow at the time was that the bankshad changed the rules ofthegame, making thedeals look better than they actua1\ywere. Theydid this by setting up what was, in reality, a two-tiered invest­ment system - one for the insiders who knew the real numbers.

and another for the lay in­vestor who was invited tochase soaring prices thebanks themselves knewwere irrationa.1. WhileGoldman's later patternwould be to capitalize onchanges in the regulato­ry environment, its keyinnovation in thelnternetyears was to abandon itsown industry's standardsof quality control.

"Since the Depression,there wet"e strict under­writing guidelines thatWall Street adhered towhen takiDg a companypublic," says one promi­nent hedge-fund manag­er. "The company had tobe in business fol' a min­imum of five years, andit had to show profitabil­ity for three consecutiveyears. But Wall Streettook these guidelines and

threw them in the trash.ll Goldman completed the snow job bypumping up the sham stocks: "Their analysts were out there say~

ing BulIshit.com is worth $100 a share."The problem was, nobody t£lld investors that the rules had

changed. ·Everyone on the inside knew,~ the manager says. 4BobRubin sure as hen knew what the underwriting standards were.They'd been intact since the 1930s."

Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Floridawho specializes in IPOs, says banks like Goldman knew full wellthat many of the public offerings they were touting would nevermake a dime. 4In the early Eighties. the major underwriters in­sisted on three years ofprofitability. Then itwas one year, then itwas a quarter. By the time of the Internet bubble, they were noteven requiring profitability in the foreseeable future."

Goldman has denied that it changed its underwriting stan­dards during the Internet years, but its own statistics belie theclaim. Just as it did with the investment trust in the 1920s, Gold­man started slow and finished crazy in the Internet years. After ittook a little-known company with weak financials called Yahoo!public in 1996, once the tech boom had already begun, Goldmanquickly became the IPO king ofthe Internet era. Ofthe 240 com­panies ittook public in 1997. a third were losingmoney at the timeofthe IPO. In 1999, at the height ofthe boom, it took 47 compa-

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58 • ROLLI NO STONlI, J UL>' 9-'13, 2009

GOLDMANSCAMM'EDHOUSING

INVESTORSBY BETTINGAGAINST ITSOWN CRAPPYMORTGAGES.

nies public, iTlcluding stillborns like Webvan and eToys, invest­ment offerings that were in manyways the modern equivalents ofBlue Ridge and Shenandoah. The following year, it underwrote 18companies in the first four months, 140 ofwhich were money los­ers at the time. Ai; a leading underwriter of Internet stocks dur­ing the boom, Goldman provMed profits far more volatile thanthose ofits competitors: In 1999, the average Goldman IPO leapt281 percent above its offering price, compared to the Wall Streetaverage ofI81 percent.

How did Goldman achieve such extraordinary results? Oneanswer is that they used a practice called "laddering,U which isjust a fancy way of saying they manipulated the share price ofnew offerings. Here's how it works: Say you're Goldman Sachs,and Bullshit.com comes to you and asks you to take their com­pany public. You agree on the usual tenns: You'll price the stock,determine how many shares should be released and take theBullshit.com CEO on a "road show~ to schmooze investors, allin exchange for a substantial fee (typically six to seven percent ofthe amount raised). You then promise your best clients the rightto buy big chunks of the IPO at the low offering price -let's sayBullshit.com's starting share price is$15 - in exchange for a promise thatthey will buy more shares later on theopen market. That seemingly sim­ple demand gives you inside knowl­edge of the IPO's future, knowledgethat wasn't disclosed to the day-traderschmucks who only had the prospec~

tus to go by: You know that certain ofyour clients who bought X amount ofslJares at $15 are also going to buy Ymore shares at $20 or $25, virtuallyguaranteeing that the price is goingto go to $25 and beyond. In this way,Goldman could artificially jack upthe new company's price, which ofcourse was to the bank's benefit - asix percent fee of a $500 million IPOis serious money.

Goldman was repeatedly sued byshareholders for engaging in ladderingin a variety ofInternet IPOs, includingWebvan and Net2ero. The deceptivepractices also caught the attention ofNicholas Maier, the syndi­cate manager ofCramer &Co., the hedge fund run at the time bythe now-famous chattering television asshole Jim Cramer, him­self a Goldman alum. Maier told the SEC that while workingfor Cramer between 1996 and 1998, he was repeatedly forced toengage in laddering practices during IPO deals with Goldman.

"Goldman, from what I witnessed, they were the worst perpe­trator," Maier said. "Theytotally fueled the bubble. And it's specifi·callythat kind ofbehavior that has caused the market crash. Theybuilt these stocks upon an illegal foundation - manipulated up ­and ultimately, it really was the small person who ended up buyingin." In 2005, Goldman agreed'to pay $40 million for its ladder­ing violations - a puny penalty relative to the enormous profits itmade. (Goldman, which has denied wrongdoing in all o(the casesit has settled, refused to respond to questions (or this story.)

Another practice Goldman engaged in during the Internetboom was "spinning," better known as bribery. Here the invest­ment bank wouLd offer the executives ofthe newly public compa­ny shares at extra-low prices, in exchange for future underwritingbusiness. Banks that engaged ill spinning would then underval­ue the initial offering price - ensuring that those "hot~opening­price shares it had handed out to insiders would be more likelyto rise quickly, supplying bigger first-day rewards for the chosenfew. So instead of Bullsrul.com opening at $20, the bank wouldapproach the Bullshit.com CEO and offer him a million shares

of his own company at $18 in exchange for future business ­effectively robbing all ofBullshit's new shareholders by divertingcash that should ha.ve gone to the company's bottom line into theprivate bank account of the company's CEO.

In one case, Goldman allegedly gave a multimillion-dollarspecial offering to eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who later joinedGoldman's board, in exchange for future i-banking business.According to a report by the House Financial Services Com­mittee in 2002, GoldmaTl gave special stock offerings to ex­ecutives in 21 companies that it took public, including Yahoo!co-founder Jerry Yang and two of the great slithering vil­lains of the financial-scandal a.ge - '!Yco's Dennis Kozlowskiand Enron's Ken Lay. Goldman angrily denounced the reportas ~an egregious distortion of the facts" - shortly before pay­ing $110 million to settle an investigation into spinning andother manipulations launched by New York state regulators.''The spinning of hot IPO shares was not a harmless corpo­rate perk," then-attorney general Eliot Spitzer said at the time."Instead, it was an integral part of a fraudulent scheme to winnew investment-banking business.D

Such practices conspired to tum theInternet bubble into one of the great­est financial disasters in world his­tory: Some $5 trillion of wealth waswiped out on the NASDAQ. alone.But the real problem wasn't themoney that was lost by shareholders,it was the money gained by invest­ment bankers. who received hefty bo­nuses for tamperiTlg with the mar­ket. Instead of teaching Wall Streeta lesson that bubbles always deflate,the Internet years demonstrated tobankers that in the age offreely flow­ing capital and publicly owned unan­cial companies, bubbles lIJ'e incrediblyeasy to inflate. and individual bonus­es are actually bigger when the maniaand the irrationality are greater.

Nowhere was this truer than atGoldman. Between 1999 and 2002,the firm paid out $28.5 billion in com­pensation and benefits - an average

of roughly $350,000 a year per employee. Those numbers areimportant because the key legacy of the Internet boom is thatthe economy is now driven in large part by the pursuit of theenormous salaries and bonuses that such bubbles make possible.Goldman's mantra of "long-term greedyD vanished into thin airas the game became about getting your check before the melonhit the pavement.

The market was no longer 8. rationally managed place to growreal, profitable businesses: It was a huge ocean ofSomeone Else'sMoney where bankers hauled in vast sums through whatevermeans necessary and tried to convert that money int.o bonusesand payouts as quickly as possible. If you laddered and spun 50Internet IPOs that went bust within a year. so what? By the timethe Securities and Exchange Commission got around to fin­ing your firm $110 million, the yacht you bought with your IPObonuses was already six years old. Besides, you were probablyout ofGoldman by then, running the U.S. Treasury or maybe thestate ofNew Jersey. (One ofthe truly comic moments in the histo­ryofAmerica's recent financial collapse came when Gov. Jon Cor­zine ofNew Jersey, who ran Goldman from 1994to1999 and leftwith $320 million in IPO-fattened stock, insisted in 2002 that"I've never even heard the tenn 'laddering' »efore.~)

For a bank that paid out $7 billion a year in salaries, $110 mil­lion fines issued half a decade late were something far less thana deterrent - they were a joke. Once the Internet bubble burst,

•".

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Goldman had no incentive to reassess its new, profit-driven strat­egy; it just searched around for another bubble to inflate. As itturns out, it had one ready, thanks in large part to Rubin.

BUBBLE #3

THE HOUSING CRAZE

GOLDMAN'S ROLE IN THK SWRKl'ING GLOBAL

disaster that was the housi ng hubble is not hard totrace. Here again, the basic trick was a decline inunderwriting standards, although in this case thestandards weren't in IPOs but in mortgages. By

now almost everyone knows that for decades mortgage dealersinsisted that home buyers beable to produce a down pay­ment of"10 percent or more,show a steady income andgood credit rating, and pos­sess a rcal first and last name.Then, at the dawn of the newmillennium, they suddenlythrew aU that shit out thewindow and started writingmortgages on the backs ofnapkins to cocktail waitress­es and ex~cons carrying fivebucks and a Snickers bar.

None of that would havebeen possible without invest­ment bankers like Goldman,who created vehicles to pack­age those shitty mortgages andsell them en masse to unsus­pecting insurance coropamesand pension funds. This cre­ated a mass market for toxicdebt that would never haveexisted before; in the old days,no bank would have wantedto keep some addict ex-eon'smortgage on its books, know­ing how likely it was to fail.You can't write U\ese mortgag­es, in other words, unless youcan sell them to someone whodoesn't know what they are.

Goldman used two meth­ods to hide the mess they wereselling. First, they bundledhundreds ofdifferent mortgages into instruments called Collat­eralized Debt Obligations. Then th~y sold investors on the ideathat, because a bunch of those mortgages would turn out to beOK, there was no reason to worry so much about the shitty ones:The CDO, as a whole, was sound. Thus, junk-rated mortgageswere turned into AAA-rat.ed investments. Second, to hedge itsown bets, Goldman got companies like AIGto provide insurance- known as credit-default swaps - on the CDOs. The swaps wereessentially a racetrack bet betweenAIG and Goldman: Goldmanis betting the ex-cons will default. AIG is betting they won't.

There was only one problem with the deals: All ofthe wheelingand dealing represented exactly the kind of dangerous specula­tion that federal regulators are supposed to rein in. DerivativesHke CDOs and credit swaps had already caused a series of seri­ous financial calamities: Procter & Gamble and Gibson Greetingshoth lost fortunes, and Orange County, California, was forced todefault in J994. A rellQrt that year by the Government Account­ability Office recommended that such financial instruments

be tightly regulated - and in 1998, the head of the CommodityFutures Trading Commission, a woman named Bl'Ooksley Born,agreed. That May, she circulated a letter to business leaders andthe Clinton administration suggesting that banks be required toprovide greater disclosure in derivatives trades, and maintainreserves to cushion against losses.

More regulation wasn't exactly what Goldman had in mind.''The banks go crazy - they want it stopped,n says Michael Green­berger, who worked for Born as director of trading and marketsat the CFTC and is now a lawprofessor at the University ofMary­land. "Greenspan, Summers, Rubin and [SEC chiefArthur] Lev­itt want it stopped.n

Clinton's reigning economic foursome - "especially Rubin," ac­cording to Greenberger - called Born in for a meetingand pleaded

their case. She refused to backdown, however, and continuedto push for more regulaUon ofthe derivatives. Then, in June1998, Rubin went public to de­nounce her move, eventuallyrecommending that Congressstrip the eYrc of its regula­tory authority. In 2000, on itslast day in session. Congresspa.ssed the Dow-notoriousCommodity Futures Modern­ization Act, which had beeninserted into an n,OOo~pagc

spending bill at the last min­ute, with almost no debate onthe floor of the Senate. Bankswere now free to trade defaultswaps with impunity.

But the story didn't endthere. AIG, a major purveyorof defaLllt swaps, approachedthe New York State InsuranceDepartment in 2000 andasked whether default swapswould be regulated as insur­ance. At the time, the officewas run by one Neil Levin, aformer Goldman vice pres­ident, who decided againstregulating the swaps. Nowfreed to underwrite as manyhousing-based securities andbuy as much credit-defa.ultprotection a.s itwanted, Gold-man went berserk with lend­

ing lust. Eythe peak oHhehousing boom in 2006, Goldman wasunderwriting $76.5 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities- a third of which were subprime - much of it to institutionalinvestors like pensions and insurance companies. And in thesemassive issues of real estate were vast swamps ofcrap.

Take one $494 million issue thatyear, GSAMP Trust 2006-83.Many ofthe mortgages belonged to second-mortgage borrowers,and the average equity they bad in their homes was 0.71 percent.Moreover, 58 percent ofthe loans included little or no documen­tation - no names of the borrowers, no addresses of the homes,just zip codes. Yet both of the major ratings agencies. Moody'sand Standard & Poor's, rated 93 percent of the issue as invest­ment grade. Moody's projected that less than 10 percent of theloans would default. In reality, 18 pel·cent ofthe mortgages werein default T/Jithin 18 rrwnths.

Not that Goldman was personally at any risk. The bank mightbe taking all these hideous, completely irresponsible mortgagesfrom beneath-gangstel'-status firms like Countrywide and selling

ROLLINO STONIl, JULY 9-23,2009 ·159

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GOLDMANTURNED ASLEEPY. OIL

MARKETINTO A GIANT

BETTING PARLOR-- SPIKING PRICES

AT THE PUMP.

them offw municipillities and pensioners - old people, for God'ssake - pretending the whole time that it wasn't grade-D horsc­shit. Bllt even as it was doing Sll, it was taking short positions inthe same market. in essence betting aj1;ainSllhe same crap it wasselling. Even worse, Goldman bragged about it in public. uThemortgage sector continues to he challenged," David Viniar, thebank's chief financial offieer. boasted ill 2007. uAs a re~;ult, wetook significant markdowns on our long inventory positions, ...However, our risk bias in that mal'ket was to be short, and thatnet short position was profitable." In other word.~, the mortgag­es it. was selling were for chumps. The real mOlley was in bettingag-dinst those same mortgages.

uThat's how audacious these assholes are," says one hedge-fundmanager. "At least with other bank~, yOIl could say that they werejustdumb - they believed what they were selliIlK, and it blew themup. Goldman knew wha.t itwas doing."

I ask the manager how it could be that selling something to cus­tomers thatyou're actually betting against - particularly when youknow more about the weaknesses of those products than the cus­tomer - doesn't amount to securities fraud.

U It's exactly securities fraud." he says."ft's the heart ofsecurities fraud. n

Eventually, lots of aggrieved inves­tors agreed. In a virtual repeat of theInternet [PO craze, Goldman wa.s hitwith a wave of lawsuits after the col­lapse of the housing buhble, many ofwhich accused the bank of withhold­ing pertinent information about thequality ofthe mortgages it issued. NewYork state regulators are suing Gold­man and 25 other underwriters tinselling bundles ofcrappy Countrywidemortgages to city and state pensiollfunds, which lost a~ much as $100 mil­lion in O\e investments. Massachusettsalso investigated Goldman for simi­lar misdeeds, acting on behalf of 714mortgage holders who got stuck hold­ing predatory loans. But once again,Goldman got off .... irtually scot-free,staving offpmscclltiol1 by agreeing topay a paltry $60 million - about whatthe hank's eDO division made in a day ann a halfduring the realestate boom.

The effects of the noosing bubble are well known - it led moreor less directly w the collapse ofBear Stearns, Lehman Brothersand AIG, whose toxic portfolio of credit swaps wa<; in significantpa.rt compo.~ed ofthe insmance that hanks like Goldman boughtagainst their own hOllsing portfolios. In fact, at least $1.3 billion ofthe taxpayer Dloney given to AIG in the bailout ultimately went toGoldman, meaning th:lt the bank made out on the housing bubbletWice: It fucked the investors \,,1\0 bought their l\orseshit COOs bybetting against its own crappy product. then it turned around andfucked the taxpayer by making him pay otJ'those same bets.

And once again, while the world was crashing down all aroundthe ba.nk, Goldman made sllre it was doing just fine in the com­pensation department. In 2006. the firm's payroll ju roped to$16.5 billion .. an average of $622,000 per employee. As a GoJd­ma.n spokesman explained, UWe work very hard here."

But the best was yet to come. While the collap!;C of the housingbubble sent most of the financial world l1eeing for the exits, or tojail, Goldman boldly doubled down - and almost single-ha.ndedlycreated yet another bubble, one the world still barely knows thefirm had anything to do with.

Conl.1'ibutingeditor MATT TAl BBI wrote ahout tlw collapse ofAIG,and the resulting bailout, in "The Big Takeover" -in RS 107.';.

BUBBLE #4

$4A GALLON

By THE IIl\GINNING OF 2008. TliK FIl-l ... NCIAL

world was in turmoil. Wall Street had spent the pastlWO and a half decades producing one scandal afteranother, which didn't. leave much to sell that wasn'ttainted. The terms junk bond, lPG, 8ubprime mort­

gage and other once-hot financial fare were now finnly associatedin the public's mind with scams; the terms credit swaps and CDGRwere about tA)join them. The credit markets were in crisis, and themantra that had sustained the fantasy economy throughout theBush years - the notion tllat housing prices never go down - wasnow a fully exploded myth, leaving the Street clamoring for a newbnllshit paradigm to sling,

Where to go? With the public reluctant to put money in any­thing that felt like a paper investment, the Street quietly movedthe casino to the physical-commodities market - stuffyou couldto\l(·.h: corn, coffee, cocoa, wheat and, above all, energy com-

modities, especially oil. In conjunctionwith a decline in the dollar. the creditcrunch and the housing crash caused a"flight to commodities." Oil futures inparticular skyrocketed, as the price ofa single barrel went from around $60in the middle of2007 to a hij1;h of $147in the summer of 2008.

That summer. as the presiden­tial campaign heated up, the accept­ed explanation for why gasoline hadhit $4.11 a gallon was that there wasa problem with the world oil supply.In a classic exa.mple of how Republi­cans and Democrats rcspond to cri­ses by engaging in fier<..'e exchanges ofmoronic irrelevancies, John McCa­in insisted that ending the morato­rium on offshore drilling would he"very helpful in the short term,~whileBarack Obama in typical liberal-arUlyuppie style argued that federal invest­ment in hybrid cars was the way out.

But it was all a Iil'~ While the global supply ofoil will eventuallydry up. the short·tenn flow has actually been increasing. Tn the sixmonths beforc prices spiked., according to the u.s. Energy Infor­mation Administration, the world oil supply rose from 85.24 mil­lion barrels a day to 85.72 million. Over the same period, world oildemand dropped from 86.82 million barrels a day to 86.07 mil­lion. Not only was the short-tenn supply ofoil rising, the demandtor il was falling - which, in classic economic terms, should havebrought prices at the pump down.

&> what causell the huge spike in oil prices'~ Take a wild guess.Obviously Goldman had help - there were other pla.yers in thephysical-commodities market - but the root cause had almosteverything to do with the behavior of a few powerful actorsdetenTlined to turn the once-solid market into a speculative casi­nO. Goldman did it by persuading pension funds and other largeinstitutional investors to invest in oil futures - agreeing to buy oilat a certain price on a fixed date. The push transformed oil froma physical commodity, rigidly subject to supply and demand, intosomething to bet on, like a stock. Between 2003 and 2008, theamou nt ofspeculative money in commodities grew from $13 bil­lion to $317 billion, an increase of 2,300 pcrcent. By 2008, a bar­rel of oil was lraded 27 times, on average, before it wa..~ actuallydelivered and consumed.

As is so often the case, there had been a Depression-era law inplace designed specifically to prevent this sort of thing. The com-

60 • ROLLING STON\<. JULY 9-23, 2009

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modities market was designed in large part to help farmers: Agrower concerned about future price drops could enter into a con­tract to sell his corn at a certain price for delivery later on, whichmade him worry less about building up stores ofhis crop. Whcnno one was buying corn, the farmer could sell to a middlemanknown as a "traditional speculator,n who would slore the graina.nd sell it later, when demand returned. That way, someone wasalways there to buy from the farmer, even when the market tem­porarily had no need for hiS crops.

In 1936, however, Congress recognized that there should neverbe more speculators in the market than real producers and con­sumers. 1fthat happened, prices would be affected by somethingoilier than supply and demand, and price manipulations wouldensue. A new law empowered the Commodity Futures Trading(',ommission - the very samebody that would later tryandfail to regulate credit swaps- to place limits on specu­lative trades in commodi­ties. As a result ofthe CITC'soversight, peace and harmo­ny reigned in the commod­ities markets for more than50 years.

All that changed in 1991when, unbeknownst to al­most everyone in the world,a Goldman-owned com­modities-trading subsid­iary called J. Aron wroteto the CFTC and made anunusual argument. Farm­ers with big stores of corn,Goldman argued, weren'tthe only ones who neededto hedge their risk againstfuture price drops - Wa.llStreet dealers who made bigbets on oil prices a/,so need­ed to hedge their risk, be­cause, well, they stood tolose a lot too.

This was complete anduHer crap - the 1936 law,remember, was specificallydesigned to maintain dis,tinctions between peoplewho were buying and sellingreal tangible stuff and people who were trading in paper alone.But the CFTC, aIru1zingly, bought Goldman's argument. It issuedthe bank a free pass, called the "Bona Fide Hedging" exemption,allowing Goldman's subsidiary to call itselfa physical hedger andescape virtually all limits placed on speculators. Jn the years thatfollowed, the commission would quietly issue 14 similar exemp­tions to other companies.

Now Goldman and other banks were free to drive moreinvestors into the commodities mal"kets, enabling specula­tors to place increasingly big bets. Thai 199) letter from Gold­man more or less directly led to the oil bubble in 2008, whenthe number of speculators in the market - driven there byfear of the faning dollar and the housing crash - finally over·whelmed the real physical suppliers and consumers. By 2008, atleast three quarters of the activity on the commodity exchang­es was speculative, according to a congressional staffer whostudied the numbers - and that's likely a conservative estimate.By the middle of last summer, despite rising supply and a dropin demand, we were paying $4 a. gallon every time we pulledup to the pump.

What js even more amazing is that the letter to Goldman, alongwith most ofthe other trading exemptions, was handed out moreor less in secret. "I was the head ofthe division oftrading and mar­kets, and Brooksley Born was the chair ofthe CFrC,u sa.ys Green­berger, "and neither of us knew this letter was out there." In fact,the letters only came to light by accident. Last year, a staffer forthe House Energy and Commerce Committeejust happened to beat a. briefing when officials from the CFrC made an offhand ref­erence to the exemptions.

"1 had been invited to a briefing the commission was hold­ing on energy,~ the staffer recounts. "And suddenly in the mid·die of it, they start saying, 'Yeah, we've been iSSUing these lettersfor years now.' I raised my hand and said, 'Really? You issued aletter? Can I see it?' And they were like, 'Duh, duh.' So we went

back and forth, and finallythey said, 'We have to clearit with Goldman Sachs.' I'mlike, 'What do you mean, youhave to clear it with Gold­man Sachs?'n

The CFTCcited arulethatprohibited it from releas­ing any information abouta company's current posi­tion in the market. But thestaffer's request was abouta letter that had been issued17 year8 earlier. It no lon­ger had anything to do withGoldman's current position.What's more, Section7ofthe1936 commodities law givesCongress the right to any

. information it wants fromthe commission. Still, in aclassic example ofhow com­plete Goldman's capture ofgovernment is, the CFTCwaited until it got clear­ance from the bank before itturned the letter over.

Armed with the semi­secret government exemp­tion, Goldman had becomethe chief designer of a giantcommodities betting parlor.Its Goldman Sachs Com­modities Index - which

tracks the prices of 24 major commodities but is overwhelming­ly weighted toward oil- became the place where pension fundsand insurance companies and other institutional investors couldmake massive long-term bets on commodity prices. Which wasall weU and good, except for a couple of things. One was thatindex speculators are mostly "long only" bettors, who seldom ifever take short positions - meaning they onlybet on prices to rise.While this kind of behavior is good for a stock market, it's terri­ble for commodities, because it continually forces prices upward."If index speculators took short positions as well as long ones,you'd see them pushing prices both up and down," says MichaelMasters, a hedge-fund manager who has helped expose the roleof investment banks in the manipulation of oil prices. "But theyonly push prices in one direction: up."

Complicating matters even further was the fact that Goldmanitself was cheerleading with all its might for an increase in oilprices. In the beginning of 2008, Arjun Murti, a Goldman ana­lyst, hailed as an "oracle ofoil" by 1M New Ycn'k Times, predict­ed a "super spike" in oil prices, forecasting a rise to $200 a bar­rel. At the time Goldman was heavily invested (Cont.on98)

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GOLDMAN SACHS

[Cant.from 61J in oil through its com­modities-trading subsidiary, J. Awn; italso owned a stake in a major oil refineryin Kansas, where it warehoused the crudeit bought and sold. Even though the sup­ply of oil was keeping pace with demand,Murti continually warned of disruptionsto the world oil supply, going so far as tobroadclI.st the fact that be owned two hy­brid cars. High prices, the bank insist­ed, were somehow the fau1t of the piggishAmerican consumer; in 2005, Goldmananalysts insisted that we wouldn't knowwhen oil prices would fall until we knew"when American consumers will stop buy­ing gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles andinstead seek fuel-efficient alternatives."

But it wasn't the consumption of realoil that was driving up prices - it was thetrade in paper oil. By the summer of2008,in fact, commodities speculators hadbought and stockpiled enough oil futuresto fill 1.1 billion barrels of crude, whichmeant that speculators owned more fu­ture oil on paper than there was real,physical oil stored in all of the country'scommercial storage tanks and the Strate­gic Petroleum Reserve combined. It was arepeat ofboth the Internet craze and thehOllsing bubble, when Wall Street jackedup present-day profits by selling suckers

shares ofa fictional fantasy future ofend­lessly rising prices.

In what was by now a painfully famil­iar pattern, the oil-commodities melon hitthe pavement hard in the summer of2008,causing a massive loss of wealth; crudeprices plunged from $147 to $33. Onceagain the big losers were ordinary peo­ple. The pensioners whose funds invest­ed in this crap got massacred: CalPERS,the California Public Employees' Retil-e­menl System, had $1.1 billion in commod­ities when the crash came. And the dam­age didn'tjust come from oil. Soaring foodprices driven by the commodities bubbleled to catastrophes across the planet, forc­ing an estimated 100 million people intohunger and sparking food riots through­out the Third World.

Now oil prices are rising again: Theyshot up 20 percent in the month of Mayand have nearly doubled so far this year.Once again, the problem is not supplyor demand. "The highest supply of oil inthe last 20 years is now,n says Rep. BartStupak, a Democrat from Michigan whoserves on the House energy committee."Demand is at a IO-year low. And yet pric­esareup."

Asked why politicians continue to harpon things like drilling or hybrid cars, whensupply and demand have notlling to dowith the high prices, Stupak shakes his

98

head. "I think they just don't understandthe problem very well," he says. "You can'texplain it in 30 seconds, so politiciansignore it."

BUBBLE #5

Rigging the Bailout

AFTER THE OIL BUIlBLE COL­

lapsed last fall, there was no newbubble to keep things hunlming

- this tim~, the money seems to be re­ally gone, like worldwide-depression gone.So the financial safari has moved else­where, and the big game in the hUllt hasbecome the only remaining pool ofdumb,unguarded capital left to feed upon: tax­payer money. Here, in the biggest bailoutin history, is where Goldman Sachs reallystarted to /lex its muscle.

Itbegan in September oflastyear, whenthen-Treasury secretary Paulson made amomentous series of decisions. Althoughhe had already engineered a rescue ofBearStearns a few months before and helpedbail out quasi-private lenders Fannie Maeand Freddie Mac, Paulson elected to let Le­hmanBrothers· one ofGold man's last realcompetitors - collapse without interven­tion. ("Goldman's superhero status was leftintact," says market analyst Eric Salzman,Hand an investment-banking competitor,Lehman, goes away.") The very next day,Paulson greenlighted a massive, $85 bil-

FROM ASBURY PARK TO THE PROMISED LAND: THE LIFE AND MUSIC OF'

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lion bailout ofAIG, which promptly turnedaround and repaid $13 billion it owed toGoldman. Thanks to the rescue elfort, thebank ended up getting paid in full for itsbad bets: By contrast, retired aula work­ers awaiting the Chrysler bailout will belucky to receive 50 cents fur every dollarthey are owed.

Immediately after the AIG bailout,Paulson announced his federal bailout forthe financial industry, a $700 billion plancalled the Troubled Asset ReliefProgram,and put a heretofore unknown 35-year­old Goldman banker named Nee] Kash­kari in charge ofadministeringthe funds.In ord~r to qualify for bailout monies,Goldman announced that it would con­vert from an investment bank to a bank­holding company, a move that allows itaccess not only to $]0 billion in TARPfunds, but to a whole galaxy of less con­spicuous, publicly backed funding - mostnotably, lending from the discount win­dow of the Federal Reserve. By the endof March, the Fed will have lent or guar­a.nteed at least $8.7 trillion under a seriesof new bailout programs - and thanksto an obscure law allowing the Fed toblock most congressional audits, both theamounts and the recipients ofthe moniesremain almost entirely secret.

Converting to a bank-holding compa­ny has other benefits as well: Goldman's

primary supervisor is now the New YorkFed, whose chairman at the time ofits an­nouncement was Stephen Friedman, aformer co-chairman of Goldman Sachs.Friedman was technically in violation ofFederal Reserve policyby remaining on theboard ofGoldman even as he was suppos­edly regulating the bank; in order to rec­tify the problem, he applied for, and got,a conllict-of-interest waiver from the gov­ernment. Friedman was also supposed todivest himself of his Goldma.n stock afterGoldman became a bank-holding com­pany, but thanks to the waiver, he was al­lowed to go out and buy 52,000 addi­tional shares in his old bank, leaving him$3 million richer. Friedman stepped downin Ma.y, but the man now in charge ofsupervising Goldman - New York Fedpresident William Dudley - is yet anotherformer Goldmanile.

The collective message of all this - theAlG bailout, the swift approval for itsbank-holding conversion, the TARP funds- is that when it comes to Goldman Sachs,there isn't a free market at aU. The govern­ment might let other players on the mar­ket die, but it simply will not allow Gold­man to fail under any circumsta.nces. Itsedge in the market has suddenly becomean open declaration ofsupreme privilege."In the past it was an implicit advantage,~says Simon Johnson, an economics profes-

99

SOl' at MIT and former official at the Inter­national Monetary Fund, who comparesthe bailout to the crony capitalism he hasseen in Third World countries. "Now it'smore of an explicit advantage."

Once the bailouts were in place, Gold­man went right back to business as usual,dreaming up impossibly convolutedschemes to pick the American carcassclean of its loose capital. One of its tirstmoves in the post-bailout era was to qui­etly push forward the calendar it uses toreport its earnings, essentially wipingDecember 2008 - with its $].3 billion inpretax losses - off the books. At the sametime, the bank announced a highIy suspi­cious $1.8 billion profit ior the first quar­ter of 2009 - which apparently included alarge chunk ofmoney funneled to it by tax­payers via the AIG bailout. "They cookedthose first-quarter results six ways fromSunday,~ says one hedge-fund manager."They hid the losses in the orphan monthand caned the bailout money profit."

1Wo more numbers stand out from thatstunning first-quarter turnaround. Thebank paid out an astonishing $4.7 billionin bonuses and compensation in the firstthree months of this year, an 18 percentincrease over the first quarter of 2008. Italso raised $5 billion by issuing newsharesalmost immediately after releasing itsfirst-quarter results. Taken together, the

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As envisioned by Goldman, the fight tostop global warming will become a"carbon market" worth $1 trillion a year.

numbers show that Goldman essentiallyborrowed a $5 billion salary payout for itsexecutives in the middle ofthe global eco­nomic crisis it helped cause, using half­baked accounting to reel in investors, justmonths after receiving billions in a tax­payer bailout.

Even more amazing, Goldman did it allright before the government announcedthe results ofits new "stress test" for banksseeking to repay TARP money suggest­ing that Goldman knew exactly what wascoming. The government was trying tocarefully orchestrate the repayments in aneffort to prevent further trouble at banksthat couldn't pay back the money rightaway. But Goldman blew oft' those con­cerns, ,brazenlyflaunting its insiderstatus."Theyseemed to knoweverythingthat theyneeded to do before the stress test cameout, unlike everyone else, who had to waituntil after," says Michael Hecht, a manag­ing director of JMP Securities. "The gov­ernment came out and said, 'To pay backTARP, you have to issue debt ofat least fiveyears that is not insured by FDIC - whichGoldman Sachs had already done, a weekor two before."

And here's the real punch line. Afterplaying an intimate role in four histor­ic bubble catastrophes, after helping$5 trillion in wealth disappear from theNASDAQ, after pawning off thousandsof toxic mortgages on pensioners and cit­ies, after helping to drive the price ofgas

up to $4 a gallon and to push 100 mil­lion people around the world into hunger,after securing tens of billions oftaxpayerdollars through a series of bailouts over­seen by its former CEO, what did Gold­man Sachs give back to the people of theUnited Statcs in 2008?

Fourteen million dollars.That is what the ,firm paid in taxes in

2008, an effective tax rate of exactly one,read it, orie percent. The bank paid out$10 billion in compensation and bene­fits that same year and made a profit ofmore than $2 billion - yet it paid the Trea­sury less than a third of what it forkedover to CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who made$42.9 million last year.

Howis this possible?According to Gold­man's annual report, the lowtaxes are duein large part to changes in the bank's "geo­graphic earnings mix." In other words, thebankmoved its moneyaround so that mostofits earnings took place in foreign coun­tries with low tax rates. Thanks to ourcompletely fucked corporate tax system,companies like Goldman can ship their

IOO • ROLLING STONE, JULY 9-23, 2009

revenues offshore and defer taxes on thoserevenues indefinitely, evenwhile they claimdcductions upfront on that same untaxedincome. This is why any corporation withan at least occasionally sober accountantcan usually find a way to zero out its taxes.A GAO report, in fact, found that between1998 and 2005, roughly two-thirds of allcorporations operating in the U.S. paid notaxes at all.

This should be a pitchfork-level outrage- but somehow, when Goldman released itspost-bailout tax profile,hardly anyone saida word. One ofthe few to remark on the ob­scenity was Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a Demo­crat from Texas who serves on the HouseWays and Means Committee. "With theright hand out begging for bailout money,"he said, "the left is hiding it offshore."

BUBBLE #6

Global Warming

FAST-FORWARD TO TODAY. IT'S

early June in Washington, D.C.Barack Ohama, a popular young

politician whose leading private campaigndonor was an investment bank calledGoldman Sachs - its employees paid some$981,000 to his campaign - sits in theWhite House. Having seamlessly navi­gated the political minefield ofthc bailoutera, Goldman is once again back to itsold business, scouting out loopholes in anew government-created market with the

aid of a new set of alumni occupying keygovernmentjobs.

Gone are Hank Paulson and Neel Kash­kari; in their place arc Treasury chief ofstaffMark Patterson and CFTC chiefGaryGensler, both former Goldmanites. (Gen­sler was the firm's co-head of finance.)And instead of credit derivatives or oilfutures or mortgage-backed CDOs, thenew game in town, the next bubble, isip carbon credits - a booming trillion­dollar market that barely even exists yet,but will if the Democratic Party that itgave $4,452,585 to in the last electionmanages to push into existence a ground­breaking new commodities bubble, dis­guised as an "environmental plan," calledcap-and-trade.

The new carbon-credit market is a vir­tual repeat ofthe commodities-market ca­sino that's been kind to Goldman, except ithas one delicious new wrinkle: If the plangoes forward as expected, the rise in priceswill be government-mandated. Goldmanwon't even have to rig the game. It will berigged in advance.

Here's how it works: If the bill passes,there will be limits for coal plants, util­ities, natural-gas distributors and nu­merous other industries on the amountof carbon emissions (a.k.a. greenhousegases) they can produce per year. If thecompanies go over their allotment, theywill be able to buy "allocations" or cred­its from other companies that ha,ve :WilD­aged to produce fewer em:issions:~Pre§i­

dent Obama conservatively estiml'j,t()~ tl~\lct

about $646billionworthofcarbQ~cre4it§will be auctioned in thc first seven yeirliione of his top economic aides speculu,testhat the real number might be twice Qreven three times that amount.

The feature of this plan that has ,spe­cial appeal to speculators is that the "cap"on carbon will be continually lowered bythe government, which means that cllrboncredits will become more and more scarcewith each passingyear. Which means thlltthis is a brand-new commodities marketwhere the main commodity to be tracleq.is guaranteed to rise in price over tim.e.The volume of this new market will beupwards ofa trillion dollars annu!tlly;forcomparison's sake, the annual combinedrevenues of all' electricity suppliers in theU.S. total $320 billion.

Goldman wants this bill. The plan is (1)to get in on the groundfloor ofparadigm­shifting legislation, (2) make sure thatthey're the profit-making slice ofthat par­adigm and (3) make sure the slice is~a bigslice. Goldman started pushing hard forcap-and-trade long ago, but things rl'lallyramped up last year when the firm spent$3.5 million to lobby climate issues. (Oneof their lobbyists at the time was noneother than Patterson, nowTreasury chiefofstaff.) Back in 2005, when Hank Paul­son was chief of Goldman, he person­ally helped author the bank's environ­mental policy, a document that containssome surprising elements for a firm thatin all other areas has been consistentlyopposed to any sort ofgovernment regu­lation. Paulson's report argued that "vol­untary action alone cannotsolve the cli­mate-change problem." A few years later,the barik's carbon chief, Ken Newcombe,insisted that cap-and-trade alone won'tbe enough to fix the climate problemand eaIled for furthcr public investmentsin research and development. Which isconvenient, considering that Goldmanmade early investments in wind power(it bought a subsidiary called HorizonWind Energy), renewable diesel (it is aninvestor ina firm ealled Changing WorldTechnologies) and solar power ~(it part­nered with BP Solar), exactly the kind ofdeals that will prosper ifthe governmentforces energy producers to use clean­er energy. As Paulson said at the time,"We're not making those investments tolose money."

The bank owns a 10 percent stake inthe Chicago Climate Exchange, where the

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.._-----

the same as for all the otherbubbles that (}{)ldman helpedcreate, fron\ 1929 to 2009.In almost every case, thevery same bank that behavedrecklessly for years, weighingdown the system with toxicloans and predatory debt, andaccOinplishing nothing hutmassive bonuses for a fewbosses, has been rewardedwith mountains of virtuallyfree money and governmentguarantees - while the actu­al victims in this mess, ordi­nary taxpayers, are the onespaying tor it,

It's Dot always easy toaccept the reality of what wenow routinely allow these peo­ple to get away with; there's akind of collective denial thatkicks in when a country goesthrough what America hasgone th1'Ough lately, when apeople lose as much prestigeand status as we have in thepast few years. You can't real­ly register the fact that you'reno longer a citizen ofa thrivingfirst-world democracy, thatyou're no longer above gettingrobbed in broad daylight, be­cause like an amputee, you canstill sort offeel things tbat areno longer there.

But this is it. This is theworld we live in now. And inthis world, some o[us have toplay by the rules, while othersget a note fronl the principalexcusing them from home­work till the end of time, plus10 billion free doBars in apaper bag to buy lunch. It'sa gangster state, running ongangster economics, and evenprices can't be trusted any­mOre; there are hidden taxesin every buck you pay. Andmaybe we can't stop it, but weshould at least know whereit's all going. 4)

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101

carbon credits will be traded.Moreover, Goldman owns aIninority stake in Blue SouTceLLC, a Utah-based firm thatsells carbon credits of thetype that will be in great de­mand if the bill passes. NobelPrize winner AI Gore, who isintimately involved with theplanning of cap-and-trade,started up a company calledGeneration Investment Man­agement with three formerbigwigs from Goldman SachsAsset Management, DavidBlood, Mark Ferguson andPeter Hanis. Their business?Investing in carbon offsets,There's also a $500 millionGreen Growth Fund set upby a Goldmanite to invest ingreen-tech ... the list goes onand on. Goldman is aheadof the headlines again, justwaiting for someone to makeit rain in the right spot. Willthis market be bigger than theenergy-futures market?

"Oh, it'll dwarf it," says afonner staffer on the Houseenergy committee.

Well, yOll might say, whocares? If cap-and-trade suc­ceeds, won't we all be savedfrom the catastrophe ofglobal warming? Maybe ­but cap-and-trade, as envi­sioned by Goldman, is reallyjust a carbon tax stl'ucturedso th at private interests col­lect the revenues. Instead ofsimply imposing a fixed gov­ernment levy on carbon pol­lution and forcing uncleanenergy producers to pay forthe mess they make, cap-and­trade will allow a small tribeof greedy-as-hell Wall Streetswine to turn yet anothercommodities market into aprivate tax-collection scheme.This is worse than the bail­out: It allows the bank to seizetaxpayer money before it'1Jeven collected.

"If it's going to be a lax, Iwould prefer that Washingtonset the tax and collect it," says·Michael Masters, the lledge­fund director who' spoke outagainst oil-futures specula­tion. "But we're saying thatWall Street can set the tax,and Wan Street can collectthe tax. That's the last thingin the world I want, It's justasinine."

Cap-and-trade is going tohappen. Or, ifit doesn't, some­thing like it will. The moral is