The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by ZbigniewBrzezinskiReview by: David C. HendricksonForeign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 1997), pp. 159-160Published by: Council on Foreign RelationsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20048305 .

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Recent Books

Military Modeling for Decision Making, jrded. edited by wayne p.

hughes, jr. Alexandria: Military

Operations Research Society, 1997,375

pp. $40.00 (paper). Intertwined in virtually all aspects of

military decision-making?from what

weapons governments should buy to how

soldiers should use them?is modeling. This volume, now in a third and substan

tially revised edition, provides the most

useful overview of the subject by some of

the most notable figures in the field. The

editor, a navy captain who has written

authoritatively on a number of subjects

(naval tactics in particular) sets the tone

in a masterly overview that stresses, as do

many of the essays that follow, the limi

tations of these artificial and simplified representations of the warrior's world.

Driven too frequently by underlying assumptions about quantitative factors

(firepower and numbers) rather than

qualitative realities (morale, cohesion,

coordination) military models can

mislead those who put excessive faith in

them?as the wildly pessimistic projections of American casualties in the Gulf War

demonstrated. A work that, if read with

care, would do much to reduce the simple faith placed by civilian and soldier alike in these ubiquitous attempts to distill reality into equations.

The U.S. Military Online: A Directory for Internet Access to the Department of

Defense, by william m. arkin.

Washington: Brassey's, 1997,

240 pp. $29.95. The author is well known (and in some

government quarters, cordially detested)

as an indefatigable researcher in military

affairs, whose cunning and persistence have uncovered many secrets (notably in

the area of nuclear weapons). This book

provides an overview of the American

military presence on the World Wide

Web, including private corporations, institutions of higher education, and

public organizations that have valuable

information on military affairs. Updates

of the work are available?needless to

say?at a web site. Indispensable for

any serious researcher in contemporary national security issues.

The United States DAVID C. HENDRICKSON

The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives,

by

zbigniew brzezinski. NewYork:

Basic Books, 1997, 24? PP- $24.00. The great merit of this volume lies in its

analysis of the strategic outlook and policy dilemmas of a host of states in Eurasia, a

tour d'horizon lucidly rendered. Brzezinski's

analysis of the triangular relationship

among China, Japan, and America?

together with the policy recommendations

flowing therefrom?is particularly good. But the heart of the book is the ambitious

strategy it prescribes for extending the

Euro-Atlantic community eastward to

Ukraine and lending vigorous support to

the newly independent republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus, part and parcel of

what might be termed a strategy of "tough love" for the Russians. That grand design is problematic for two reasons: one is that

To order any book reviewed or advertised in Foreign Affairs, fax 203-966-4329.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - November/December 1997 [*59]

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Recent Books

the excessive widening of Western insti

tutions may well introduce centrifugal forces into them; a second is that

Brzezinski's test of what constitutes

legitimate Russian interests is so stringent that even a democratic Russia is likely to

fail it. Russia, in effect, is to be accorded

the geopolitical equivalent of basketball's

full court press (whereas China, by contrast,

merits the geopolitical equivalent of foot

ball's prevent defense). Given Russia's

weak and friendless condition, a point to

which Brzezinski frequently returns, that

strategy is difficult to square with the author's otherwise sensible emphasis

on

ensuring a balance of power in Eurasia.

U S. Foreign Policy and the Four Horsemen

of the Apocalypse: Humanitarian Relief in Complex Emergencies,

by Andrew

s. natsios. Westport: Center for

Strategic and International Studies,

1997, x9* PP- $55-?o (paper, $15.95). A shrewd and unconventional assessment

of the anatomy, political setting, and oper ational challenges of "complex humanitar

ian emergencies." Natsios, who has

wide experience in relief programs (as

government bureaucrat, military officer, and nongovernmental organization

executive), writes perceptively of both the

need for and limits of these enterprises. He argues that the United States has an

interest in leading the response to such

disasters, insisting (against nonpolitical humanitarians) that public support will

erode, if not collapse, if the case for such

assistance is placed on the ground of pure

altruism. At the same time, however, he

thinks that humanitarian operations must be kept separate and distinct from

the State Department, whose geopolitical

perspective, he fears, will compromise

the humanitarian objectives that ought to be at the forefront of relief operations.

His resolution of this delicate question

may certainly be questioned: humanitarian

operations that have pernicious political

consequences (like the reconstitution of

Hutu forces, abetted by humanitarian

aid, that occurred after the Rwandan

genocide) are more highly suspect than

the author allows.

Degrees of Freedom: Canada and the

United States in a Changing World. EDITED BY KEITH BANTING ET AL.

Montreal: McGill-Queens University Press, 1997, 493 pp. $60.00

(paper, $24.95). This valuable study, with contributions

from ten Canadian scholars, examines

Canadian and American responses to

economic globalization and social frag

mentation, two powerful forces that have

placed contradictory demands on the

modern state. Globalization has forced

upon both countries, as on all states, an

economic agenda that requires them to

adjust their policies in accordance with

the imperative to remain competitive in

the world economy. Social fragmentation, often exacerbated by the dislocations

brought on by globalization, has, by contrast, increased the demands on the

state's resources, bidding the state to be

come more responsive to popular pressures at the same time that globalization requires it to be less so. How much autonomy each

state enjoys in the face of these pressures, and how far their responses have converged or diverged, are the central problems examined here. The conclusion is relatively

hopeful. Contrary to the fears expressed by a wide number of observers?that global ization will drive all countries to a single,

[l6o] FOREIGN AFFAIRS- Volume 76 No. 6

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