The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Climate Change's Potential

Impact on Farmers in West Africa

A. Jalloh, M. D. Faye, H. Roy-Macauley, P. Sereme, R. Zougmore, G. C. Nelson, T. S. Thomas, K. Ahossane, P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe, S. Conde, A. Danguioua, S. Hassan, C.E. Ikuenobe, R.G. Johnson, M. Kandeh, B. S.

Karmorh, M. Khouma, A. E. Lawin, D. M. d’Croz, D. K. Nutsukpo, A. Palazzo, R. Robertson, L. Some, A. Tchinguilou, H. Yaye

Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha

Arable Land 236 million ha

10.3 % exploited in West Africa

10 % developed

Significant pastoral and

fisheries resources

However, West African

economies are especially

vulnerable to climate change

as a result of their heavy

dependence on rainfed

agriculture.

Natural Resource Endowment in WA

Socio economic overview of West Africa•Vegetation and Land use

•Under-five mortality is between 100 and 200/1000.

• The majority of the countries have a life expectancy of between 50 and 60 years.

Population in 2010 was about 290 million. Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.

In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other countries having less than US$ 500

An average of about 70–80 percent of the population lives on less than US$2 per day

RainfallTemperature

Major challenge• A major challenge is increasing agricultural

production among resource-poor farmers without exacerbating environmental problems and simultaneously coping with climate change.

Scenarios for the future

Population and income

1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more than double except Cape Verde

2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.

3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the pessimistic scenario.

Rainfall

Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) MIROC, A1B (mm)

Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of: 1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy-rainfall areas, particularly along the coast, 2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer

Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop model: CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B

Maize

Sorghum

Groundnut

Regional/landscape implications

Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

Drought and floods could affect productivity and even threaten the existence of plants and animals

along the coast and the Sahel, respectively

Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in hitherto dry areas in the Sahel

Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of inputs to farming areas and produce to market

Coastal West Africa Sahelian region

Regional Agricultural Outcomes• World market prices for maize, rice, sorghum, and

wheat predicted to increase in all scenarios, while the price of millet will be less in 2050 than in 2010.

• The area under cultivation of both millet and sorghum will increase, while the area under cultivation of maize will decrease. Production of maize, millet and sorghum is predicted to increase by 2050.

• In the optimistic scenario, the number of malnourished children decreases for all the countries except Niger. In the pessimistic scenario, the number increases in all countries except Guinea Bissau and Senegal

Recommendations• Available and accessible weather data – AGRHYMET • Capacity building in climate science and need for

targeted research for climate smart technologies. • Harmonized use of rivers for irrigation and electricity • Conservation of natural resources, particularly forests,

and the development of parks. • Sustained economic integration (common currency and

trade policies) • Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free movement of

goods and people throughout the region.• Effective linkage and dialogue between researchers and

policy makers.

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THANK YOU – MERCI

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