the good, the bad, and the future bots on the net · 2018-12-22 · bots on the net mike amundsen...
TRANSCRIPT
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Bots on the Net
Mike Amundsen@mamund
API Academy
The Good, the Bad, and the Future
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Introductions"Here we find ourselves, nose to nose as it were,
considering things in spectacular ways."
-- Racter
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training.amundsen.com
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www.apiacademy.co
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http://g.mamund.com/cambook
"A reusable guide to the technology, business, and politics of doing APIs
at scale within the enterprise."
-- Kin Lane, API Evangelist
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Let's talk about bots!
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"Rossumovi Univerzální Roboti"
A 1920 science fiction play by the Czech writer Karel Čapek.
By Unknown - http://www.nndb.com/people/951/000113612/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=12706610
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https://www.16best.net/blog/chatbots-gone-wild/
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https://www.16best.net/blog/chatbots-gone-wild/
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https://www.16best.net/blog/chatbots-gone-wild/
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The challenge of Bots on the Net...
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The Challenge of the Bots on the Net..
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The Challenge of the Bots on the Net..
● Technologists see great opportunity
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The Challenge of the Bots on the Net..
● Technologists see great opportunity● Providers see great savings
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The Challenge of the Bots on the Net..
● Technologists see great opportunity● Providers see great savings● Consumers are reluctant to engage
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Where does that lead us?
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The Good"Awareness is like
consciousness. Soul is like spirit."
-- Racter
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"Are there imaginable digital computers which would do well in the imitation game?" (1950)
-- Alan Turing (1912-1954)
By Unknown - http://www.turingarchive.org/viewer/?id=521&title=4, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=22828488
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One of the fathers of modern artificial intelligence. Created
the ELIZA program (1966)
-- Joseph Weizenbaum (1923--2008)
By Ulrich Hansen, Germany (Journalist). - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=138940
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By Unknown - http://www.le-grenier-informatique.fr/medias/images/eliza-title.jpg, Public Domain,https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70571280
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By Richard Maney/Photo by Friedman-Abeles, NYC - eBayfrontback, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30370926
"That young woman with Colonel Pickering, find out
who she is."
My Fair Lady, 1956
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● Eliza could carry out conversations● She could fool users into thinking she was a human● However, Eliza understood nothing and simply returned
predetermined responses.
The Promise of Eliza...
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ELIZA is vertical/specialized AI
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By boltron - https://www.flickr.com/photos/boltron/137172721/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4190727
"SHRDLU was an NLP program, developed by
Terry Winograd at MIT in 1968."
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By Ksloniewski - Praca własna, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=46849623
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From physical to virtual worlds...
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Specialized AI or Microworlds
● Microworlds (1970) are domain-specific● Artificial Specialized Intelligence (ASI) is domain-specific● ASI doesn't scale well
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How can we scale better?
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The Bad"Side and tumble and fall among
The dead. Here and thereWill be found a utensil."
-- Racter
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By boltron - https://www.flickr.com/photos/boltron/137172721/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4190727
"A pioneer in the development of computer technology as a
tool to try to understand cognitive functions."
-- Kenneth Colby (1920- 2001)
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By boltron - https://www.flickr.com/photos/boltron/137172721/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4190727
"PARRY (1972) simulated a person with paranoid
schizophrenia based on conceptualizations and beliefs."
-- Parry (1972)
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https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc439
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● It also fooled 48% of psychologists tested● It was actually easier to mimic paranoid personalities● It focused on behavior/reactions instead of actions
The Problem of PARRY...
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PARRY is vertical/specialized AI with behavior
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Encoding Behavior
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Encoding behavior exposes bias
● Latent Bias ("doctor")● Selection Bias ("beauty")● Interaction Bias (Tay)
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Latent Bias ("doctor")
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Selection Bias ("beauty")
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By Source (WP:NFCC#4), Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=49953711
Tay was released by Microsoft, began to post offensive tweets,
and was shut down 16 hours after launch.
-- Tay (March 23, 2106)
Interaction Bias (Tay)
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Interaction Bias (Tay)
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The Power of Negative Thinking
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Loss Aversion
By Laurenrosenberger - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=67117183
Loss Aversion refers to people's tendency to prefer avoiding
losses to acquiring equivalent gains.
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Our Brain's Negative Bias
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/articles/200306/our-brains-negative-bias
"The brain reacts more strongly to stimuli it deems negative.
There is a greater surge in electrical activity."
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Tay was a learning bot (ML)
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Machine Learning (ML), not AGIMachine learning uses
statistical techniques to give computers the ability to "learn"
with data, without being explicitly programmed.
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Limits to Learning...
"As we gain more data, how much better does our system get? We are
getting to the point where we get less benefit than we did in the past.”
-- Peter NorvigDir of Research
GoogleNov 2013
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The Challenges of ML/AGI
● Artificial Generalized Intelligence (AGI)● Learn, Plan, Reason● Perform any intellectual task that a human can.
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"Are there imaginable digital computers which would do well
in the imitation game?"
-- Turing, 1950
By Unknown - http://www.turingarchive.org/viewer/?id=521&title=4, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=22828488
The Turing Test
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"A machine is required to enter an average home and figure
out how to make coffee."
-- Steve Wozniak
By Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63344547
The Coffee Test
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Algorithms drive ML chatbots
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Algorithms drive ML chatbots
Big Data is the fuel
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The Future"What distances,
what chasms, are to be bridged
here?"
-- Racter
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The Bad News
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The algorithms we release today...
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The algorithms we release today...
● Are likely to contain bias○ Latent○ Selection○ Interaction
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The algorithms we release today...
● Are likely to contain bias○ Latent○ Selection○ Interaction
● And rely on negative stimulus
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The algorithms we release today...
● Are likely to contain bias (driver/code)○ Latent○ Selection○ Interaction
● And rely on negative stimulus (fuel/data)
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Can Regulations Help?
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Can Regulations Help?
● US : Focused on national securityhttps://armedservices.house.gov/news/press-releases/stefanik-introduces-artificial-intelligence-legislation
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Can Regulations Help?
● US : Focused on national securityhttps://armedservices.house.gov/news/press-releases/stefanik-introduces-artificial-intelligence-legislation
● UK : Focused on data protection/portabilityhttps://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldai/100/100.pdf
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Can Regulations Help?
● US : Focused on national securityhttps://armedservices.house.gov/news/press-releases/stefanik-introduces-artificial-intelligence-legislation
● UK : Focused on data protection/portabilityhttps://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldai/100/100.pdf
● France : focused on transparencyhttps://www.aiforhumanity.fr/
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Can Regulations Help?
● US : Focused on national securityhttps://armedservices.house.gov/news/press-releases/stefanik-introduces-artificial-intelligence-legislation
● UK : Focused on data protection/portabilityhttps://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldai/100/100.pdf
● France : focused on transparencyhttps://www.aiforhumanity.fr/
● UN : Broad platform for all sectorshttps://futureoflife.org/ai-policy-united-nations/
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The Good News
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Task-Focused
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Task-Focused Microworlds (TFMs)
● Microworlds are domain-specific● Task-focused means no need to plan, learn, reason● TFM's can scale
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Other Recommendations
● "self-identifying" rules ("I am a bot") ● "license-to-operate" laws ("licensed by X Corp")● Insurance underwriting for data privacy/protection● Consider open algorithms and/or open training data
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So..."Is it better to need or to
despise?"
-- Racter
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The Challenge of the Bots on the Net..
● Technologists see great opportunity● Providers see great savings● Consumers are reluctant to engage
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Enable ELIZA's Task-Focused Microworlds (TFMs)
● Microworlds are domain-specific● Task-focused means no need to plan, learn, reason● TFM's can scale
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Beware of PARRY's algorithms...
● Are likely to contain biases○ Latent○ Selection○ Interaction
● And rely on negativity as a stimulus
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The future lies before us...
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Finally..."Which way do we turn?
Which way do we travel?"
-- Racter
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Bots offer a future of possibilities
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Bots offer a future of possibilities
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Bots on the Net
Mike Amundsen@mamund
API Academy
The Good, the Bad, and the Future