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1 The Globalization of Homo sapiens John Cairns, Jr. Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA Abstract : Homo sapiens began as a small-group species 160,000 years ago and remained tribal until the Agricultural Revolution about 10,000 years ago. Exponential growth began at that time and accelerated during the Industrial Revolution until, during the 20 th century, the population doubling time was less than the human life span in some countries. In the latter part of the 20 th century, the ecological overshoot rose to 24%, which meant humankind was exceeding Earth’s carrying capacity. In addition, global heating and other types of climate change threatened to reduce food supplies, while population continued to grow. About one-half the population lived reasonably successfully in urbanized areas, although post-peak oil would probably make this undertaking more difficult. Most important, nations had not developed world governance to manage such problems as: (1) global heating and other types of climate change, (2) acidification of the oceans, (3) regulation of carbon dioxide [which affects both problems (1) and (2)] and other greenhouse gases, (4) stabilization of the human population within Earth’s carrying capacity, (5) equitable and fair allocation of resources among humans and with the 30+ million other life forms with which humans share the planet, (6) management of the global commons, (7) requiem for reason. In order to address these global problems successfully, humankind must quickly develop global governance systems that transcend national limits so that the biospheric life support system is restored to and maintained in a healthy condition. Key words : Ecological globalization, Carrying capacity, Greenhouse gases, Oceanic acidification, Biospheric life support system. Asian J. Exp. Sci., Vol. 22, No. 1, 2008; 1-12 We're in a giant car heading toward a brick wall and everyone's arguing over where they're going to sit. David Suzuki Individual advances turn into social change when enough of them occur. Elizabeth Janeway Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. Mark Twain Humankind began 160,000 years ago as a small-group species spread thinly over the planet. Not only were the numbers small, but so was the rate of population growth. For thousands of years, humankind lived sustainably. Then came the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution - the latter accelerated by fossil fuels. At present, the human population has exploded to nearly 7 billion, about one-half living in large cities. The planet's carrying capacity is a function of both numbers and lifestyle. However, the 24% ecological overshoot (Wackernagel et al ., 2002) provides persuasive evidence that humankind has exceeded the planet's carrying capacity - resources are being used faster than they can be regenerated. Furthermore, the world is at or near peak oil, after which availability will decline rapidly. Biofuels, once touted as substitutes for petroleum, have substantial disadvantages (Brown, 2007; Cairns, 2007). Global Heating and Climate Change The third report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Page 1: The Globalization of Homo sapiens - John Cairns Globalization of Homo sapiens.pdf · The Globalization of Homo sapiens John Cairns, Jr. Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia

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The Globalization of Homo sapiens

John Cairns, Jr.Department of Biological Sciences,Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA

Abstract : Homo sapiens began as a small-group species 160,000 years ago and remained tribaluntil the Agricultural Revolution about 10,000 years ago. Exponential growth began at that timeand accelerated during the Industrial Revolution until, during the 20th century, the populationdoubling time was less than the human life span in some countries. In the latter part of the 20th

century, the ecological overshoot rose to 24%, which meant humankind was exceeding Earth’scarrying capacity. In addition, global heating and other types of climate change threatened toreduce food supplies, while population continued to grow. About one-half the population livedreasonably successfully in urbanized areas, although post-peak oil would probably make thisundertaking more difficult. Most important, nations had not developed world governance tomanage such problems as: (1) global heating and other types of climate change, (2) acidificationof the oceans, (3) regulation of carbon dioxide [which affects both problems (1) and (2)] andother greenhouse gases, (4) stabilization of the human population within Earth’s carryingcapacity, (5) equitable and fair allocation of resources among humans and with the 30+ millionother life forms with which humans share the planet, (6) management of the global commons,(7) requiem for reason. In order to address these global problems successfully, humankind mustquickly develop global governance systems that transcend national limits so that the biosphericlife support system is restored to and maintained in a healthy condition.

Key words : Ecological globalization, Carrying capacity, Greenhouse gases, Oceanic acidification,Biospheric life support system.

Asian J. Exp. Sci., Vol. 22, No. 1, 2008; 1-12

We're in a giant car heading toward a brickwall and everyone's arguing over where they'regoing to sit. David Suzuki

Individual advances turn into social changewhen enough of them occur. Elizabeth Janeway

Nature knows no indecencies; man inventsthem. Mark Twain

Humankind began 160,000 years agoas a small-group species spread thinly overthe planet. Not only were the numberssmall, but so was the rate of populationgrowth. For thousands of years, humankindlived sustainably. Then came the AgriculturalRevolution and the Industrial Revolution -the latter accelerated by fossil fuels. Atpresent, the human population has explodedto nearly 7 billion, about one-half living in

large cities. The planet's carrying capacityis a function of both numbers and lifestyle.However, the 24% ecological overshoot(Wackernagel et al., 2002) providespersuasive evidence that humankind hasexceeded the planet's carrying capacity -resources are being used faster than theycan be regenerated. Furthermore, the worldis at or near peak oil, after which availabilitywill decline rapidly. Biofuels, once touted assubstitutes for petroleum, have substantialdisadvantages (Brown, 2007; Cairns,2007).

Global Heating and Climate ChangeThe third report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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(5 April 2007) reached some veryimportant conclusions!

(1) Global greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions have grown since pre-industrialtimes, with an increase of 70% between1970 and 2004.

(2) The largest growth in global GHGemissions between 1970 and 2004 hascome from the energy supply sector (anincrease of 145%).

(3) With current climate changemitigation policies and related sustainabledevelopment practices, global GHGemissions will continue to grow over thenext few decades. For example, carbondioxide emissions between 2000 and 2030from energy use are projected to grow 45-110% over that period.

(4) Six scenario groups are possible,each with different assumptions (e.g., veryrapid economic growth) and outcomes(e.g., preservation of local identities).

This complicated third report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeemphasizes various new technologies, butdoes not focus as intently on human lifestylechanges. The latter could be critical,especially in intensive energy-use countries(e.g., United States), but ethics, equity, andfairness require a more equitable and fairallocation of resources or the poor countriesmight not participate in reducing the rate ofclimate change.

The short summary just providedindicates that the next three decades will beturbulent, especially if crops fail and millionsof environmental refugees seek betterconditions. The future will be less hazardousand more predictable if each nation,especially the ones most responsible for

GHG emissions, both ceases increasingthem and reduces them to a level likely toresult in a reduced rate of change or, ideally,a climate resembling the late 20th century.Lifestyle changes (e.g., markedly reduceddriving) could greatly reduce GHGemissions. However, lifestyle changes at theglobal level will require individuals to havea strong commitment to the human globalcommunity.

Acidification of the OceansControl of carbon dioxide emissions

will help reduce both global heating andocean acidification. Carbon sinks areevolving in a changing climate (Fung et al.,2005). Deforestation is an importantcomponent of this issue (Howden, 2007).Both acidification and overfishing candestroy the world's largest ecosystem.Restoring a damaged ecosystem the size ofan ocean is a problem of great scale andcomplexity and has no precedents to follow,should restoration be necessary.Regrettably, restoration may be necessarysince climate change can slow oceanicabsorption of carbon dioxide (Perkins,2007). All of Earth's ecosystems areimportant to humankind, and, thus, resourceregeneration of the oceans is critical.Resource consumption already exceedsregenerative capacity. For example, theNew Economics Foundation (2007)provided persuasive evidence that theUnited Kingdom went into ecological debton 15 April 2007. Britain's "ecological debtday" - the day the nation began livingbeyond its means - falls only one-third ofthe way through the year and has crept everearlier over the last four decades.

However, some positive trends can benoted. For example, South Pacific nations

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have agreed that one-quarter of the world'soceans will be protected from fishing boatsthat drag heavy nets across the ocean floor(BBC, 2007). However, such efforts will beuseless if the oceans become so acidic thatthey will no longer support thriving fisheries.As Whitty (2007) notes, by the end of the21st century, half of all species on Earth maybe extinct. Clearly, even if only a portion ofthese species are oceanic, the demise of theterrestrial species will have some effect,perhaps a major effect, upon oceanicfisheries. In addition, restoring damagedoceanic ecosystems will be virtuallyimpossible in the context of a major loss ofspecies that were present before theserious damage occurred. Changes in theoceanic biota, combined with other factors,will produce a variety of other phenomenathat will make conditions alien to indigenousspecies. For example, an algal bloom in thecoastal water of southern California hasproduced record levels of a toxic acid(domoic acid) that has been blamed in thedeaths of numerous marine mammals andseabirds (Associated Press, 2007).Concerns are due to the number and varietyof sea lions, dolphins, and birds that havewashed ashore between Santa Barbara andSan Diego. Confirmation that the dead andsick animals had been exposed to domoicacid poisoning is still needed, but, in an eraof rapid climate change, such situations arelikely to become more common.Confirmation is hindered by the lack ofsufficient qualified professionals to gatherthe necessary data, either in the UnitedStates or elsewhere in the world. Sincerapid climate change will almost certainlymake such situations far more common thanthey are today, governments should take

steps to ensure more qualified professionalsbecome available.

Regulation of Carbon DioxideEvidence confirms that carbon dioxide

produced in one locale moves to quitedistant locales. For example, a pall ofcarbon monoxide that hovered overAustralia during wildfires there in 2004came, in part, from forest fires in SouthAmerica, some 13,000 kilometers (8,000miles) away (Staff Writers, 2007a). Ofcourse, carbon monoxide will combine withoxygen to produce carbon dioxide. Otherchanges have also been observed. Forexample, scientists have discovered amassive eddy that sweeps aroundAntarctica (Staff Writers, 2007b). Since thesurface layers of the oceans absorb carbondioxide, determining what happens to boththe warm water and the carbon dioxide isextremely important. This information canthen be factored into the global models.

Arguably, the acid test for theglobalization of Homo sapiens is awillingness to limit greenhouse gas emissionsfor the benefit of humanity and the other lifeforms with which humans share the planet.Humankind is not testing well at present.Even the conservative IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change states thataccumulating concentrations of greenhousegases could reach dangerous levels in adecade or two. Some individual scientistswho participated in the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change studies are evenmore outspoken. For example, OlavHohmeyer, a German delegate to theBangkok conference sponsored by UnitedNations stated: "Time is running out. Wehave the measures, but we have to put thepolicies in place and act upon them. We

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have to do it because time is short" (Casey,2007). Commenting on the same report,Revkin (2007a) noted that the report madeclear the risks of delay, noting that emissionsof greenhouse gases have risen 70% since1970 and could rise an additional 90% by2030 if nothing is done. However, Revkin(2007b) reports that "The Bushadministration estimates that emissions bythe United States will grow nearly as fastthrough the next decade as they did duringthe previous decade." Although Kristen A.Hellmer, a spokeswoman for the WhiteHouse on environmental matters, stated thatthe President's actions addressing climatechange are working, an assortment ofexperts on climate trends and policy, whenshown the US Climate Action Report,described the projected emissions asunacceptable. Greenhouse gas emissionsalso will continue to rise in countries suchas China and India. The problem ofaddressing heating at a global level also maysuffer a setback at the G8 Summit in June2007 since the United States objects to apledge to limit global heating to 2°Celsiusin this century and cut world greenhouse gasemissions by 50% below 1990 levels by2050 (Lovell, 2007). The leaders of Britain,the United States, Russia, Canada, Japan,Italy, and France will attend the G8 Summit,hosted by Germany from 6-8 June 2007.Also present at the meeting will be theheads of state of South Africa, Mexico,Brazil, China, and India as the key groupof major developing countries. The stakesfor this meeting are high since scientistspredict that average temperatures will riseby between 1.8 and 3.0° Celsius, whichcould cause floods and famines and placemillions of lives at risk.

Leonhardt (2007) lists three broadprinciples that assist in sorting thesubstantive attempts to reduce climatechange from those that lack substance: (1)acknowledge the costs, (2) let the marketwork, and (3) keep the solution simple.However, huge political problems exist. Forexample, in 2007, the National Journalasked a group of Republican senators andcongressional house members: "Do youthink it's been proven beyond a reasonabledoubt that Earth is warming because ofman-made problems?" Only 13% of theseRepublicans agreed that global heating hasbeen proved. Worse yet, RepresentativeRoscoe Bartlett (1978; Rep., Maryland)and Vernon Ehlers (Rep., Michigan), bothresearch scientists, were denied seats on theSelect Committee on Energy Independenceand Global Warming (Chait, 2007). TheCongressional Democrats strongly endorsethe scientific evidence but do not haveenough members in either the House or theSenate to override a presidential veto.Clayton (2007) asserts that, in order to haltcatastrophic climate change, the UnitedStates has less than a decade to learn howto capture and store carbon dioxide.

Stabilizing the Human Populationwithin Earth's Carrying Capacity

Nutting (2007) noted that, although thepolitical climate on global heating ischanging, the hard part, especially forpoliticians, is to outline the sacrifices thepublic must make to curb global heating.However, as Hawken (2007, p. 16) notes:

Because we are educated tobelieve that salvation is found inthe doctrines of a single system,we are naively susceptible to

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dissimulation and cant. Ideologiesprey on these weaknesses andpervert them into blind loyalties,preventing diversity rather thannurturing natural evolution and theflourishing of ideas. Ecologists andbiologists know that systemsachieve stability and healththrough diversity, not uniformity.Ideologues take the opposite view.Each country will have different

problems, but all are related to populationgrowth and affluence, which is rarelydiscussed in most countries. The globalpopulation is 1,000 times greater than itwas 7,000 years ago (McEvedy andJones, 1978). However, humans use 100to 1,000 times more resources and energythan their ancestors did; in short, Earthtoday withstands at least 100,000 times theimpact it did in 5,000 BCE (Hawken,2007). Each nation has a differentpopulation problem, but few, arguablynone, have a population stabilization goalbased on the nation's carrying capacity forhumans on a long-term, sustainable basis.For example, the United States, whichuses a disproportionate share of theworld's resources, has a rapidly increasingpopulation that is driven primarily by legalimmigrants and illegal aliens. It would beneither fair nor equitable for the legalimmigrants to have fewer resources percapita than resident citizens, but the UnitedStates already has a sizable ecologicaldeficit. A long-term, truly sustainable USpopulation, without cheap oil, is probablymore like 150-200 million (Powell, 2007).In May and June 2007, the US Congresswas debating legislation on immigrationreform, but no where in the hours of

debate was carrying capacity or optimalpopulation numbers mentioned. Despitethis omission, population growth is a majorcause of both environmental and socialproblems.

India is, at present, experiencing aneconomic boom, but close to one-fourth ofthe population still lives on less that US$1per day (Varshney, 2007). Clearly, a globalresource distribution problem exists. Forexample, an electricity crisis represents oneof the major obstacles to India's attempt toattain the front ranks of the global economy(Gurgaon, 2007). Deforestation at a rategreater than the regenerative rate is clearlyunsustainable and will almost certainly affectfood production and other components orcarrying capacity. Many mourn the lostnatural systems of their childhoods and oftenforget that the global population has morethan doubled in their lifetimes.

Exponential growth of any kind isusually a major problem; however, for apopulation of 10,000 people that is growingat 7% per year, the population will become10,000,000 people in just 100 years.Clearly, unlimited population growth on afinite planet is not possible. Without a globalpopulation policy, natural law will ensurethat the human population, in the long term,stays within Earth's carrying capacity.Population size will be limited by famine,disease, wars, and other unpleasant factors.However, surely an intelligent species thatis able to reason should be able to devisea more humane way of limiting populationgrowth. In addition, optimum populationsize that will permit a quality life should beachievable. However, in view of religiousand ideological conflicts, a quality life, atpresent, seems a utopian dream. Global

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heating and other types of climate changewill probably reduce global carryingcapacity and exacerbate the already difficultsituation. However, matching global carryingcapacity and human population size is atleast theoretically possible, and a willingnessto discuss population issues freely andopenly is essential to a humane solution tothe problem.

Equitable and Fair Allocation ofResources

The allocation of planetary resourcesmust include the 30+ million other specieswith which humans share the planet. Sincethese other life forms constitute thebiospheric life support system upon whichhumans depend, allocation of resourcesamong all species is a moral/ethical act aswell as one of enlightened self interest. Thefirst action should be to stay within Earth'sbiocapacity. Venetoulis and Talberth (2005)suggest deducting 13.4% of eachenvironmental footprint analysis frombiocapacity to ensure the well being ofpresent and future generations of all lifeforms. This value is suggested as a startingpoint, pending additional evidence regardingthe actual percentage necessary. Venetoulisand Talberth (2005) also found that, on aglobal level, humanity is exceeding itsecological limits by 39% -- nearly doublethe amount of ecological overshoot in their2004 report and using the old approach. Inshort, humankind would need 1.39 Earthsto ensure that future generations are at leastas well off as the present generation. Thisinformation is clearly a high priority item thataffects all of human society.

The Venetoulis and Talberth (2005)report provides evidence that humankindhas overshot sustainable biocapacity levels

by about 8 global hectares per capita. Thisovershoot of biocapacity indicates areduction in natural capital to fill the gap.However, the major challenge is thedisproportionate ecological deficits(negative ecological balances) for variousnations. The largest deficits are United ArabEmirates (-213), Kuwait (-146), the UnitedStates (-89), Belgium and "Luxembourg (-62)", and The Netherlands (-56). Thenations with the largest per capita ecologicalsurpluses (positive ecological balances) areMongolia (+163), Namibia (+97), Gabon(+96), Mauritania (+68), and Papua NewGuinea (+65).

Venetoulis and Talberth (2005) makethe very important point that the effects ofglobal heating (and other types of climatechange), as well as toxics in theenvironment, almost certainly have effectsupon biocapacity. These effects are notalways benign. Also, the effects of depletionof aquifers, loss of sustained in-streamflows, and degradation of water qualityupon biocapacity are not well documented.

Managing the Global CommonsTickell (2006) and the Joint Science

Academies (2005) note that globalproblems require global responses. Forsome problems, such as climate change, theneed is obvious. For others, such as misuseof the global commons, unmanaged use hasbeen common for at least a century (Cairns,2003).

May (2007) remarks that, although iceages have come and gone, the most recent8,000 years, since the beginnings ofagriculture and the first cities, have had anunusually steady climate. At present,anthropogenic greenhouse gases havealready impaired that stability, and, due to

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increased levels of greenhouse gases, theinstability is likely to worsen unless globalremedial actions begin now. Lanchester(2007) remarks that inaction may be due tothe fact that even people who feel moststrongly about climate change on some levelcannot quite bring themselves to believe init. He also remarks:

Part of the problem is one ofscale. Global warming is as asubject so much more importantthan almost anything else that it isdifficult to frame or discuss. . . . Isuspect we're reluctant to thinkabout it because we're worriedthat if we start we will have nochoice but to think about nothingelse.My obsession is global heating/peak

oil - closely related topics with globalconsequences. At 84 years of age, mypersonal concerns are minor. However, asa parent/grandparent, I fear for my childrenand grandchildren. As a scientist, I amwitnessing an unprecedented globalexperiment in which humans are theexperimental animals. A huge leap in socialevolution might enable humankind to livesustainably, but in dramatically reducednumbers. Humankind's relationship with theglobal community (e.g., the atmosphere,oceans, etc.) will be a major factor in thefuture of Homo sapiens.

Sea turtles provide a superb exampleof the issues in managing the globalcommons. Sea turtles are members of "theglobal commons" and must be managed assuch (Eckert, 2002). Since they are stronglymigratory, international cooperation andcollaboration among range states is essentialto their survival - as is true for whales and

Globalization of Homo sapiens

other migratory species. Like all migratoryspecies, sea turtles should be a resourceused sustainably, equitably, and fairly.

Requiem for ReasonFormer US Vice-President Al Gore

(2007) remarks:We must create new ways to

engage in a genuine andnonmanipulative conversation aboutour future. We must, for example,stop tolerating the rejection anddistortion of science. We mustinsist on an end to the cynical useof pseudostudies known to be falsefor the purpose of intentionallyclouding the public's ability todiscern the truth. Americans in bothparties should insist on thereestablishment of respect for therule of reason.Monbiot (2007) deduces that the

problem is not that people are not hearingabout global heating, but that they do notwant to know. He also notes that theproblem is not just a matter of a failure toengage, but humans are assisted in theirreluctance by an active campaign ofdissuasion (p. 22). He devotes an entirechapter to "The Denial Industry," which isboth fascinating and depressing.

GlobalizationEven nations can participate in avoiding

scientific evidence or ignoring it when itmight threaten economic growth. Forexample, Cooper and Revkin (2007) callattention to the battle that will pit USPresident Bush with the Western Europeanmembers of the Group of 8 on cuttinggreenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050.Cooper and Revkin (2007) quote one

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European diplomat as stating: "The UnitedStates, on this issue, is virtually isolated."This path does not lead toward globalizationof humankind.

ConclusionsGore (2007) quotes US Senator

Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who was onthe Senate floor just before the UnitedStates launched the invasion of Iraq: "ThisChamber is, for the most part, silent -ominously, dreadfully silent. There is nodebate, no discussion, no attempt to lay outfor the nation the pros and cons of thisparticular war. There is nothing. We standpassively mute in the United States Senate."Gore asked: "Why was the Senate silent?"He further asks: "Why do reason, logic, andtruth seem to play a sharply diminished rolein the way America now makes importantdecisions?" One might well make the samecomments about the greatest global crisishumankind has ever faced - overpopulation,rapid depletion of petroleum, climatechange, biotic impoverishment (e.g., loss ofhoneybees), environmental toxins, andexceeding carrying capacity. Humankindmay be no different than over 99% of thespecies that inhabited this planet and arenow extinct. Humans are not lords andmasters of the universe - and this realizationis not welcome news.

The Internet has made globalization ofinformation flow possible. What is lackingis globalization of the decision makingprocess. Even when the scientific informationis robust, even overwhelming, it may berejected for reasons that have nothing to dowith science (e.g., economic growth,political ideology) by persons with few orno scientific credentials. In the case ofgreenhouse gases, just one or two nations

with large greenhouse gas emissions mayplace the entire planet at high risk. Thereasons for this situation may be denied byclaiming scientific illiteracy, corporate greed,lack of public discourse, inadequatecoverage by the news media, or a religiousbelief that an Armageddon is imminent (e.g.,the rapture).

Justifying environmental damage toprotect the economy is not a persuasiveargument. If natural capital and ecosystemservices are damaged or degraded, thehuman economy will not flourish and willalmost certainly decline. However, Monbiot(2007) remarks:

But if those governments thathave expressed a commitment tostopping climate change havefound their efforts frustrated, it ispartly because they wanted themto be frustrated. They know thatinside their electors there is asmall but insistent voice askingthem both to try and to fail. Theyknow that if they had themisfortune to succeed, our liveswould have to change. They knowthat we can contemplate atransformation of anyone'sexistence but our own.However, politicians and the general

public aside, the gigantic global experiment,casually begun, probably can no longer bereversed. Worse yet, Rachel Carson's 1962Commencement Address at ClaremontCollege (given on June 12) warned that theexperiment should never have been started:

So nature does indeed needprotection from man: but man,too, needs protection from hisown acts, for he is part of the

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Globalization of Homo sapiens

living world. His war againstnature is inevitably a war againsthimself. His heedless anddestructive acts enter in the vastcycles of the earth, and in timereturn to him …Ironically, a plan to honor Rachel

Carson on her centennial (her 100thbirthday, had she lived, would have been 27May 2007 - her best known publication isSilent Spring) was blocked by US SenatorTom Coburn (Rep., Oklahoma)(Zabarenko, 2007). US Senator Ben Cardin(Dem., Maryland), who planned the Senatehonor, expected an easy approval of anhonor for a scientist who has been aninspiration to several generations ofscientists and all who love nature, but theWhite House Council on EnvironmentalQuality recently made more than 180changes to a report on global heating,virtually all of which had the effect ofexaggerating scientific uncertainties andminimizing certainties (Kolbert, 2007). Thispath does not lead to scientific globalizationof the general public.

Ehrlich and Ehrlich (2004) sum uphumankind's present situation superbly:"Now we have a global state-corporateempire centered on the United States.There is still a limited time to circumvent along-term environmental collapse that woulddestroy this new state-corporate empireand be the first global collapse. But theempire must change its ways."

Much has happened in the three yearssince the Ehrlichs wrote their book (Ehrlichand Ehrlich, 2004). Global heating and othertypes of climate change have occurred morerapidly than expected. Peak oil looms large

for a culture addicted to cheap, readilyavailable petroleum. Europe has made someworthwhile adjustments to a lower energyfuture, such as public transportation andwindmills. Many countries and individualsare using low energy lighting. However, theUnited States is still making profligate useof finite global supplies of petroleum. Homosapiens has, in the past, demonstratedadmirable cultural adaptability and, onehopes, will do so in the present perilouscircumstances.

The number of outcomes is almostunlimited, but three illustrate the range.

(1) Humankind waits too long tocontrol greenhouse gas emissions and theclimate becomes too hostile for humans tosurvive.

(2) Humankind acts in time to preventirreversible damage to the biospheric lifesupport system but billions die due to amarkedly lower food supply, pandemicdiseases, and resource wars.

(3) A global awareness of the need tolive harmoniously with the biospheric lifesupport system develops and is sustained.

Economic globalization has resulted inboth environmental degradation and vastincome disparity. However, ecologicalglobalization (cherishing the biospheric lifesupport system) should produce asustainable world. Globalizing Homosapiens would require cherishing theplanetary ecosystem.

AcknowledgementsI am indebted to Darla Donald for

editorial assistance and to Paul Ehrlich,Paula Kullberg, and Alvin Lucier or callingsome of the references to my attention.

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