the global trade analysis project (gtap): data, models and ... · regional seminar on compilation...
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Center for Global Trade Analysis
Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University
403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2056 USA
http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu
Global Trade Analysis Project
The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data, Models and Research
Dominique van der MensbruggheCenter for Global Trade Analysis
Regional Seminar on Compilation and Application of Supply-Use Tables (SUTs) in Africa
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
5-8 February 2018
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• Global database• Harmonized input-output tables+consistent bilateral trade flows
• Global economic model• Trade agreements (Doha, FTAs, regional integration, etc.)
• Global environmental issues• Energy, greenhouse gas emissions
• Global agreements (Kyoto Protocol, Paris Agreement)
• Interactions with trade and trade policy (e.g. border tax adjustments)
• GTAP Network• Facilitates communictions
• Promotes instruction
What is GTAP?
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• Provision of global public good
• Failure to co-ordinate leads to:• Lack of transparency in data sources/methodology
• Large deviations in databases even for same year and aggregation
• Expensive for individual agencies
• Difficult to sustain
• Minimal payoff in academic setting
• Rent seeking
• Poor documentation
• GTAP relies on Advisory Board:• Core funding
• Strategic guidance
Why the GTAP Framework?
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• Represents a snapshot of the world economy• Initial equilibrium or counterfactual to experiment simulation
• Philosophy: Find the best person in the world to do the job and sell them on it!
• GTAP establishes standards, coordinates the work and brings it altogether into ONE consistent analytical database:
• Global coverage: 141 regions, of which 121 individual countries (13 in v1!)• 57 economic sectors (37 in v1)• Bilateral trade data/shipping margins• Protection data MacMap (from ITC/Geneva and CEPII)• National databases (IO tables): national collaborators• Increasing physical data
• Energy, CO2 emissions, other GHG emissions, Land-use, Labor (for some model versions)
GTAP: the database
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• The data are key for credible policy analysis
• Broad participation: GTAP pools data development efforts, get best person in world on any given task
• Documentation
• Public availability
• Regular upgrades (latest release V9.2)• improved quality;
• Increased regional/sectoral definition; and
• Additional data, e.g. better services trade, public procurement
GTAP: Data Principles
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History of releases
Release Released Regions Sectors Base Year
GTAP 1 1993 15 37 1990
GTAP 2 1994 24 37 1992
GTAP 3 1996 30 37 1992
GTAP 4 1998 45 50 1995
GTAP 5 2001 66 57 1997
GTAP 6 2005 87 57 2001
GTAP 7 2008 113 57 2004
GTAP 8 2012 129 57 2004/2007
GTAP 9 2015 140/141 57 2004/2007/2011
GTAP10 Summer 2018 141 65 2004/2007/2011/2014
Spatial coverage—GTAP V9.2
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Composite region (20)Country (121)
RUS
CAN
CHN
USA
BRA
AUS
XNF
KAZ
XAC
XWF
IND
XEC
ARG
MNG
XCF
MEX SAU
IRN
IDN
ZAF
PER
XSU
XWS
XWS
COL
BOL
EGY
ETH
TUR
TZA
UKR
VENNGA
PAK
NAM
MOZ
XSA
FRA
ZMB
SWE
XSE
CHL
MDG
ESP
XNA
BWA
KEN
DEU
THA
FIN
POL
XOC
MAR
JPN
CMR
NOR
XSM
PRY
ITA
ZWE
GBR
NZL
NZL
ROU
VNM
MYSMYS
OMN
BLR
CIV
PHL
PHL
KGZ
BFAGIN
ECU
XER
LAO
GHA
UGA
TJK
XEF
URY
SENKHM
TUN
NPL
XEAGRC
BGR
XCB
BGD
NIC
HUN
LTU
AUT
KOR
CZE
MWI
BEN
GTM
PRT
LVA
GEO
HND
IRL
JOR
AZE
ARE
ARM
EST
HRV
SVKXEE
DNK
PANLKA
CHE
TGO
DOM
CRI
NLDBEL
TWN
XSC
XSC
ALB
SVN
ISR
XCA
RWA
SLV
KWT
QAT
CYP
PRIJAM
BRN
TTO
LUX
MUS
SGP
BHR
MLT
HKG
XTW
Northern Year(s) Eastern Year(s)
1 Egypt 2003 13 Ethiopia 2002
2 Morocco 2004, 1990 14 Kenya 2001
3 Tunisia 2005, 1995 15 Madagascar 1999
16 Malawi 2007, 1994
Western 17 Mauritius 1997
4 Benin 2003 18 Mozambique 2007, 1995
5 Burkina Faso 2005 19 Rwanda 2006
6 Cameroon 2003 20 Tanzania 2007, 1992
7 Côte d’Ivoire 1998 21 Uganda 2007, 2002, 1992
8 Ghana 2005 22 Zambia 2007, 1995
9 Guinea 2005 23 Zimbabwe 1991
10 Nigeria 2006, 1999
11 Senegal 2005, 1996 Southern12 Togo 2006 24 Botswana 1994
25 Namibia 2004
26 South Africa 2005, 1995
26 African countries included in GTAP
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Eastern Middle Northern Western
Burundi Angola Algeria Cape VerdeComoros Central African Rep. Libya GambiaDjibouti Chad Western Sahara Guinea-BissauEritrea Congo Sudan LiberiaMayotte Congo, DR MaliSeychelles Equatorial Guinea Southern MauritaniaSomalia Gabon Lesotho Niger
São Tomé & Príncipe Swaziland Saint HelenaSierra Leone
31 African countries not included in GTAP
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Top countries missing from GTAP (by GDP and Population)
Algeria
Angola
Congo, Democratic Republic
Iraq
Libya
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic
Uzbekistan
Yemen, Rep
GTAP's Most Wanted Tables
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Sectoral coverage
Paddy rice Coal Wood products Electricity
Wheat Oil Pulp, paper etc. Gas distribution
Other cereals Gas Refined oil etc. Water
Vegetables & fruits Other minerals Chemicals etc. Construction
Oil seeds Red meat Other mineral prod. Trade
Sugar cane & beet White meat Ferrous metals Land transportation
Plant-based fibers Vegetable oils Other metals Sea transportation
Other crops Dairy products Metal products Air transportation
Beef etc. Processed rice Mot. vehicles & parts Communication
Poultry, pork, etc. Refined sugar Other trp. eqpt. Financial services
Raw milk Other food Electronic eqpt. Insurance
Wool etc. Beverages & tobacco Other mach. & eqpt. Other bus. services
Forestry Textiles Other manu. Recr. & other serv.
Fishing Clothing Public services
Leather products Dwellings
Endowments
GTAP acronym Definition
off_mgr_pros
Skill
ed
Legislators, senior officials and managers (1), and
professionals (2)
tech_aspros Technicians and associate professionals (3)
clerks Clerks (4)
service_shopU
nskill
ed Skilled agricultural and fishery workers (6), craft and
related trade workers (7), plant and machine operators and
assemblers (8), and elementary occupations (9)
ag_othlowsk Skilled agricultural and fishery workers (6)
captl Capital
landr Land (in agriculture only)
natrs Forestry, fishing, coal, oil & gas extraction, and other
mining
Key data relations and dimensions
ACT VA HH GOV INV ROW
ActivitiesInt. demand
2 x 57 x 57
Private expend.
2 x 57 x 1
Public expend.
2 x 57 x 1
Inv. expend.
2 x 57 x 1
Exports FOB +
ITT
57 x 141
Value addedFactor demand
8 x 57
HouseholdsIncome dist.
1 x 8
Government
2 x 57 x 57
8 x 57
1 x 57
2 x 141 x 57
2 x 57 x 1
12 x 57 x 1 2 x 57 x 1
Investment Private savings Public savings Foreign savings
Rest of the WorldImports CIF
141 x 57
• SUT or SAM provide the country detail• transformed into IO tables
• Bilateral trade data• Reconciled based on COMTRADE (with CIF/FOB wedges)
• National Accounts• GDP, C, G, I from World Bank and others
• Detailed information• Energy (IEA), Agriculture (OECD,FAO)
• FIT procedure• Reconcile country/region table given data above and FOR A GIVEN YEAR
IN USD
Database Key Inputs
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Database Construction Process
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I-O Tables
Fitted I-O
Tables
GTAP Data
Base
International
Data SetsFIT
Assemble
• S-U, SAM, or I-O tables are contributed by users like you!
• Structural requirements of tables
• Commodity-by-commodity or product-by-product
• 2 use matrices: Tax-free (UF) and commodity tax paid (UP)
• 2 vectors: duty-free imports (MF) and indirect tax-paid output (OP)
• Requirements• Full GTAP sectors not required, at least 30; must separate food and
agriculture, energy, other
• No negative flows: since we deal with pre and post tax matrices, except changes in stocks
Country Data
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Matrices format and balance condition
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Primary
Imported
DomesticIntermediate
usage
Fin
al
Intermediate
usageF
inal
Value added
UF (tax-free)
Primary
Imported
Domestic Intermediate
usage
Fin
al
Intermediate
usage
Fin
al
Value added
UP (tax-paid)
To
tal S
ale
s
Total Costs
Production Tax
• If you don’t like it, help fix it!
• Free copy of final releases
• Include pre and interim releases
• How to Contribute to GTAP?
• Find a country for which GTAP needs new data
• Follow instructions in GTAP Tech. Paper No. 1,
https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/contribute/default.asp
• Send questions, table and documentation to Angel Aguiar at the Center
Why Contribute?
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• Core model: Corong et al. 2017, (J. of Global Economic Analysis):• Relatively standard, multi-region GE model
• Perfect competition
• Armington treatment of import demand (two-nested)
• International trade and transport margins
• Modeling of global savings/investment behavior
• Analytical welfare decomposition implemented empirically
• Fully documented, easy to use and easy to modify
• Extensions include:• Technology spillovers
• Energy, power, emissions and climate change mitigation
• Biofuels, land-use
• Imperfect competition/love of variety models (incl. Melitz)
• International migration
• Recursive dynamics and international capital mobility
GTAP: the model(s)
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• GEMPACK• Typically log-linearized specification (does not impact accuracy)
• Other well-known GEMPACK versions• GTEM—ABARES (Australia), MAGNET, formerly LEITAP—Wageningen
(Netherlands)
• GAMS• Typically solved as system of non-linear equations
• Sample of well-known versions• AIM—NIES (Japan), Env-Linkages—OECD (France), EPPA—MIT (USA),
G-Cubed—McKibbin (Australia), GEM-E3—JRC (Spain), Gemini-E3—EPFL (Switzerland), FARM—USDA (USA), GLOBE (McDonald, UK), LINKAGE/ENVISAGE—World Bank (USA), MIRAGE—CEPII (France) & IFPRI (USA)
GTAP: the model(s)—Languages and dialects
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• Well established:• Evolution of FTAs
• WTO accession (used heavily for China’s accession)
• Impact of WTO agreement: Key tool for analysis of Doha
• Cost of climate change mitigation, impact on trade
• Sector trade disputes: steel tariffs, textiles and apparel quotas
• Emerging areas of application:• Technology spillovers
• FEWS (food, energy and water sustainability)
• Biofuels, land-use
• Imperfect competition/love of variety models (incl. Melitz)
• International migration
• Recursive dynamics and international capital mobility
• Public procurement
• New policy issues drive extensions to model and database
Issues addressed using GTAP
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• Core support from 29 agencies:• International: ADB (Philippines), ERIA (Indonesia), EC JRC (Spain), EC DG TRADE
(Belgium), FAO (Italy), IDB (USA), IFPRI (USA), ITC (Switzerland), OECD (France), WB (USA), UNCTAD (Switzerland), UNESCWA (Lebanon), UNECA (Ethiopia), WTO (Switzerland)
• National: CEPII (France), DRC (China), ESRI (Japan), ERS/USDA (USA), RIETI (Japan), Thünen Institute (Germany), US DOC (USA), US EPA (USA), US ITC (USA)
• Academia and private sector: Wageningen Economic Research (Netherlands), University of Hohenheim (Germany), MIT (USA), KPMG (Australia), McKinsey (USA), GRIPS (Japan)
• And supported by 3 at-large members
• Started with just 2 consortium members in 1994!
• Agencies represented on the Advisory Board• Providing core funding• and advice on future directions
GTAP: The Network, The Consortium
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• GTAP network is 16,600+ strong from 174 countries• Contributing data
• Altering the model(s),
• Writing papers and attending conferences
• Thousands of GTAP-based applications
• Discussion list—GTAP-L
• Annual conferences• 2014 Dakar, 2015 Melbourne, 2016 Washington, DC, 2017 Purdue Univ.,
2018 Cartagena, 2019 Warsaw, 2020 Tokyo
• GTAP Website (http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/)• Web is key to communication and dissemination of information
GTAP: The Network—worldwide
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Distribution of GTAP Network
24Note: As of 30 Jan 2018
Total
Network
Members
Total
Active
Contributors
Percentage
of Entire
Network
Percentage
of Active
Contributors
Entire Network
(Per Million
Inhabitants)
Active
Contributors
(Per Million
Inhabitants)
Africa 1,996 529 12.0% 12.5% 1.7 0.5
Asia 6,154 1,267 37.0% 29.8% 1.4 0.3
Europe 3,737 1,111 22.5% 26.2% 6.1 1.8
North America 3,275 948 19.7% 22.3% 5.8 1.7
Oceania 545 222 3.3% 5.2% 14.7 6.0
South America 912 171 5.5% 4.0% 2.2 0.4
Totals 16,619 4,248 100.0% 100.0%
• GTAP 101—the latest offering• Entry level course for CGE modelers
• Strictly online, offered twice a year
• Very successful with increasing enrollment and students continuing with standard GTAP short course
• GTAP short course• Oldest course, held annually
• Instruction on the GTAP database and model and related software
• Focus on analyzing and understanding model results
• 2 parts: online instruction (7 weeks), 1 week intensive hands-on instruction
• Dynamic GTAP• Normally every 2 years
• Focus on long run allocation of savings/investment
• GTAP-U• Focused courses (e.g. regional trade agreements, Melitz model)
GTAP: The Network—Education
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• GTAP is now main tool for assessing economy-wide impacts of global trade and environmental issues
• Extensive database and network of researchers
• Excellent for asking ‘what if questions’ and illustrating basic economic principles such as Comparative Advantage and Trade is a Two-way Street
• GTAP is relatively unique in economics, but likely quite similar to activities elsewhere in sciences
• Success of project traced back to Short Courses
• Consortium key to long term viability• Provides funding• But also key data inputs and leadership
• Modest contribution by many agencies provides long-run stability
Summary
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