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Global Occurrence and Economic Consequences of Stripe Rust in Wheat
Yuan ChaiCo-Authors: Philip Pardey, Jason Beddow, Terry Hurley,
Darren Kriticos and Hans Joachim-Braun
University of Minnesota, CSIRO, and CIMMYT
Advancing Pest and Disease Modeling Workshop
February, 2015
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Policy Questions regarding Crop Diseases
Geographic
ExtentsShare of Crop
Production Susceptible
Associated Crop Losses
Economically Justified
Investment
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Wheat Rust Diseases
Berberis spp.
Wheat
telia
pycniaaecia
urediniaPrimary
Host
Alternate
Host
Disease Cycle
Wind Dispersal
Puccinia Pathway Source: USDA CDL
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Wheat Rust Diseases
• Occurring almost all wheat growing countries
• Spreading across continentsExtent
• Increasing frequency in the last decadeFrequency
• Stem Rust Ug99
• Stripe Rust Yr9 and Yr27Impact
Photo source: CIMMYT
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Climate suitabilityof stem rust
Suitable
Persists
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Stem Rust Losses in the U.S.
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Stem RustAverage 2.25% per year
Average 0.26% per year
Author’s calculation based on USDA CDL data
Effective Resistance Breeding
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Stem Rust: Global Assessment Summary
• A sustained investment of $51.1 million per year (2010 prices) in stem rust research could be justified economically
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Stripe Rust Losses in the U.S. (by year)
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Stripe rust
Author’s calculation based on USDA CDL data
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Stripe Rust Losses in the U.S. (by state)
Pre-2000 Mainly the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region
Post-2000 PNW and central states
Author’s calculation based on USDA CDL data
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Expanding Geography of Stripe Rust
Pre-2000 Post-2000
Data source: 2013 BGRI-HarvestChoice Survey
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Stripe Rust
• Expanding Geography• US: epidemics expand from PNW (pre-2000) to Central States
(post-2000) (Chen 2005)
• CWANA: Yr9 and Yr27 driven epidemics since 1980s (Solh et al. 2012)
• South Africa: first report of stripe rust during 1996 (Pretorius et al. 1997)
• Australia: annual $40-90 million spent on fungicides (Wellings2007)
• Aggressiveness / Increased Fitness• Isolates collected since 2000 are better adapted at warmer
temperatures (Milus et al. 2009)
• Other factors contributed to increased aggressiveness (Loladze et al. 2014)
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Research Method
Simulation
Stripe Rust Global Occurrence Model
Stripe Rust Loss Data
Probabilistic Consequences of Wheat Stripe Rust
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CLIMEX Model of Pests and Diseases
CLIMEX Pest
Model
Known Distribution
Climate Data
Species Parameters
Temperature MoistureStressLatency
LocationFrequencySeverity
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CLIMEX Pest Model
Species Parameters
Climate Data
Model Output
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Modeled global climate suitability for stripe rust (Beta)
Suitable
Persists
Reported
Seasonably
vulnerable
Persistently
vulnerable
World 89.5 56.7
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North America (Beta)
Suitable
Persists
Reported
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Sub-Saharan Africa (Beta)
Suitable
Persists
Reported
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Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (Beta)
Suitable
Persists
Reported
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Asia (Beta)
Suitable
Persists
Reported
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Research Method
Simulation
Stripe Rust Global Occurrence Model
Stripe Rust Loss Data
Probabilistic Consequences of Wheat Stripe Rust
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Stochastic Structure of U.S. Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust
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Loss Average 0.54% per year
Average 0.15% per year
Average 1.5% per year
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Loss Proportion
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Loss Proportion
1961-1984: significant yield losses1985-1999: use of resistant cultivars and fungicideSince 2000: new stripe rust pathotypes
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Research Method
Simulation
Stripe Rust Global Occurrence Model
Stripe Rust Loss Data
Probabilistic Consequences of Wheat Stripe Rust
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15 Epidemiological Zones
• Following Saari and Prescott (1985), 15 Epidemiological Zones • Epidemic in each epidemiological zone occurs independently
• HavestChoices Spatial Allocation Model (SpAM) • 10 arc minute resolution: Output / Area / Yield
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Estimate R&D benefits
Losses
Observed Yield(Susceptible Wheat)
Losses
Observed Yield(Resistant Wheat)
Disease Free Yield
R&DBenefits
Present Value of Cost × 1 + 10% T = Future Value of Benefits
-100
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(For illustration purpose, not based on real data)
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Step 1• Observed yield
• Disease Free Yield
Step 2
• Counterfactual yield assuming two scenarios:
• Low losses: with resistant varieties
• High losses: without resistant varieties
Step 3• Value of losses avoided
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Probabilistic Losses Attributable to Stripe Rust
Probability
of Loss
Limited Area Extent
(1961-1984)
Extended Area Extent
(2000-2012)
Volume Value Volume Value
(percentage) (million tonnes) (million $US) (million tonnes) (million $US)
90 ≥ 0.65 ≥ 172 ≥ 4.40 ≥ 1,170
50 ≥ 0.79 ≥ 209 ≥ 5.22 ≥ 1,389
20 ≥ 0.88 ≥ 235 ≥ 5.82 ≥ 1,549
5 ≥ 0.98 ≥ 262 ≥ 6.42 ≥ 1,718
Mean ≥ 0.79 ≥ 210 ≥ 5.25 ≥ 1,398
*Benchmarked relative to 1985-1999 U.S. losses
Preliminary Data: Do Not Quote
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Research Investments Attributable to Rust
Reference Period Stripe Rust Stem Rust
2000-2050 (2010 prices)
Annual Spending(Economically Justifiable)**
$38.6 million $51.1 million
Per Hectare* (18 cents) (23 cents)
*In comparison, U.S. wheat farmers spent $27.69 per hectare on seed in 2010
**Actual stem rust R&D spending is estimated less than half the amount, and stripe rust spending is even less than stem rust
Economic justification: Developing effective resistance through R&D investment is more beneficial than exposing susceptible wheat to rust epidemics
Preliminary Data: Do Not
Quote
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Summary
•Rapid spread of stripe rust epidemics• Spatial expansion: almost 90 percent of the world’s wheat
production is susceptible to stripe rust• Frequency increase• Losses severe
• Our (beta) assessment suggests that around $39 million per year be spent to alleviate global losses from stripe rust• About three quarters the corresponding stem rust research investment
• Difference• Stem Rust: projected losses
• Stripe Rust: observed losses
Preliminary Data: Do Not
Quote
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Future Work: Leaf Rust
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Leaf Rust in the U.S.
Author’s calculation based on USDA CDL data
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Thanks