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IEA

The Global EV Outlook 2018

Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency

Petit-Déjeuner AVERE France

Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)

Multi-government policy forum dedicated to conducting collaborative activities that support the design and implementation of domestic electric vehicle (EV) deployment policies and programs

In 2010, EVI was one of several initiatives ‌launched under the CEM

Currently co-chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA

Released several analytical publications, demonstrating leadership to strengthen the understanding of the opportunities offered by electric mobility to meet multiple policy goals

Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro- Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22)

Launched the EV30@30 Campaign in June 2017, updated in September 2018

Launched the Pilot City Programme in May 2018

Also working with the Global Environment Facility on the preparation of a project for the support of EV policy-making in developing regions

Members

in 2018

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/521376/paris-electro-mobility-declaration.pdf






https://www.iea.org/media/topics/transport/EVI_Government_Fleet_Declaration.pdf

http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Our-Work/CEM-Campaigns/EV30at30

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/september/uk-and-seven-major-companies-join-campaign-for-vehicle-electrification.html

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/may/global-ev-pilot-city-programme-launched-at-clean-energy-ministerial.html



EV30@30 Campaign: UK and seven major companies joined in 2018

Private sector partners:

Institutional partners:

Signatory countries:

+ Shell and TEPCO

EV30@30 Campaign

Designed to accelerate the global deployment of electric vehicles

Sets a collective aspirational goal to reach 30% sales share for EVs by 2030

Launched at the 8th CEM meeting, in Beijing, by Minister Wan Gang

Enlarged participation announced at the UK ZEV Summit in September 2018

Implementing actions include:

• Supporting the deployment of chargers and tracking its progress,

• Galvanising public and private sector commitments for electric vehicle (EV) uptake in company and supplier fleets

• Scaling up policy research and information exchanges

• Supporting governments for policy and technical assistance through training

• Establishing the Global EV Pilot City Programme, aiming to achieve 100 EV-Friendly Cities over five years. The PCP counts over 30 cities by September 2018.

Supported by several partners, including the private sector since 2018

Members

+ UK in 2018

Global EV Outlook 2018

• EVI flagship report by the IEA

• 2018 edition includes • Data reporting (EV stock, sales, EVSE, battery costs)

• Overview of existing policies

• Battery technology and cost assessment

• Implications on the TCO of road vehicles

• Role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (2030 timeframe)

• Electricity demand, oil displacement and GHG emission mitigation

• Material demand

• Policy recommendations

• 2018 edition also paired with the Nordic EV Outlook 2018 • Focus on one of the most dynamic global regions for EV uptake

• Opportunity to learn on policy efficacy and consumer behaviour

The number of electric cars on the road continues to grow

The electric car stock exceeded 3 million in 2017

However, electric cars still only represent 0.3% of the global car fleet

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Electric car sales are on the rise in all major car markets

China is the largest electric car market globally, followed by Europe and the US

Norway is the global leader in terms of market share, with 40% in 2017

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Market share of newelectric cars

Electric mobility is not limited to cars

Low Speed Electric Vehicles: estimated at 4 million units in China (sales above 1 million). Not favoured

by policy support but by cost and practicality (small size, no driving license/registration required)

Electric 2-wheelers: major phenomenon in China, where there are 250 million in the rolling stock and

30 million sales per year

Buses: 360 000 in China. Close to 90 000 sales in 2017 . Stimulated by policy support.

Growing interest in C40 cities (better economics: not only pollution and climate-driven phenomenon)

2017: key policy updates

• New Energy Vehicle (NEV) credits mandate

• Vehicle Subsidy Program: higher technical performance requirements

• Considering a national ban on ICE cars

• Update of the CO2 emissions standards up to 2030

• Incentive scheme for of zero- and low-emission vehicles

• ICE and Diesel bans announced by some member states

• Revision of fuel economy standards at a federal level.

• Not all states affected by decision

• California EV targets more ambitious: 5 million by 2030

• In 2017 announcements of ambitious targets

• Renewal of subsidies (FAME) and public procurement

• Launch of plan for charging infrastructure deployment

• All 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to

promote the uptake of electric cars

• Policies have been instrumental to make electric vehicles more appealing to customers,

reduce risks for investors and encourage manufacturers to scale up production

National and local announcements for EVs and towards the end of ICEs

ICE phase-out pledges have been mainly announced in Europe

China has also mentioned that it is considering the ICE phase out

+ EV30@30 and country/state-level EV targets

Charger deployment accompanies EV uptake

EV owners charge mostly at home or at work: private chargers far exceed publicly accessible ones

Publicly accessible chargers important to ensure EV market expansion, fast chargers essential for buses

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Private slow chargers (cars)

EVSE: Behavioural insights from NEVO 2018

• Charging infrastructure has been implemented alongside EV deployment (2017: 1 publicly accessible

charger/16 EVs):

• Home charging is the most widely used by consumers

• More charging options will need to be offered as the market grows. Many players are entering the EVSE market and business

models are being tested

• Delayed charging will need to be implemented to avoid local grid disruptions or costly and avoidable grid upgrades

Frequency of charging by EVSE category in Norway, 2014-17

Charger deployment also currently supported by policy

Major markets such as China, the European Union and the United States clearly have ramped up their ambition to install fast charging facilities along highways

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Cities are using a variety of measures to support charger deployment

Four main categories: targets, financial incentives, regulatory requirements (building codes) and direct deployment of chargers

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Lithium-ion batteries: further cost reductions at reach…

The combined effect of manufacturing scale up, improved chemistry and increased battery size

explain how battery cost can decline significantly in the next 10 to 15 years

Plant scale

Chemistry

Battery size

0.5-8 GWh/year 35 GWh/year

20-75 kWh 70-80 kWh

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400 USD/kWh: Current battery 260 USD/kWh: Current battery 120 USD/kWh: Current battery

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Battery price:

Implications for the cost competitiveness of EVs

BEVs are most competitive in markets with high fuel taxes and at high mileage At a USD 120/kWh battery price and with EU gasoline prices, BEV are competitive even at low mileage

LDVs - BEV

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2-wheelers

The economic case for electric two-wheelers is strong: in countries with high fuel taxes electric two-wheelers are already cost competitive with gasoline models

High incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh

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Electric buses travelling 40 000-50 000 km/year are cost competitive in regions with high diesel taxation regimes if battery prices are below USD 260/kWh

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Battery price:

Global EV deployment under the NPS and the EV30@30 scenario

The EV30@30 Scenario sees almost 230 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs,

on the road by 2030. This is about 100 million more than in the New Policies Scenario

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New Policies Scenario

PLDVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV

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EV30@30 Scenario

Benchmarking scenario results against OEM targets for PLDVs

Estimates based on manufacturers’ projections suggest an uptake of electric LDVs

ranging in-between the New Policies and the EV30@30 scenarios by 2025

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Power demand projections

Two-wheeler and bus electricity demand make China the highest consumer of electricity for EVs in both

scenarios. In the EV30@30 Scenario, electricity demand for EVs is more geographically widespread

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PLDV LCV Bus and Minibus HDV 2/3 wheelers

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GHG emissions

In 2030, CO2 emissions associated with the use of EVs are lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles

at a global scale, even if electricity generation does not decarbonise from current levels

EV30@30 NPS

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Avoided emissions, without grid decarbonisation, compared to equivalent ICE fleetAvoided emissions due to grid decarbonisationEmissions from EVs

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Battery capacity

Demand for battery capacity for electric vehicles, primarily PLDVs, is projected to increase to 0.78 TWh

per year in the New Policies Scenario and 2.2 TWh per year in the EV30@30 Scenario and to 2030

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Material demand

Lithium and cobalt demand from electro mobility in 2030 will be much higher than current demand

Developments in battery chemistry can greatly affect future demand

Cobalt Lithium

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PRIVATE & PUBLIC EVSE ROLLOUT

DEMAND-DRIVEN & BUSINESS-DRIVEN EVSE

SUCCESSFUL GRID INTEGRATION

MATERIAL DEMAND MANAGEMENT

SECOND LIFE, END-OF-LIFE AND RECYCLING

Policies favouring the transition to electric mobility

CARBON PRICING OF FUELS

PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

BRIDGING THE PRICE GAP

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

LOCAL ACCESS REGULATIONS

ROAD PRICING

EV support policies

Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects

• Fuel economy standards • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives • ZEV mandates

Purchase incentives

Standards, regulations and mandates

Circulation incentives Charging infrastructure roll-

out

• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates

• Feebates • VAT exemptions • …

• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge

exemption • …

• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning • …

Large scope for city-level action

www.iea.org IEA

EV uptake is still largely driven by the policy environment

• All 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the uptake of electric cars

• Policies have been instrumental to make electric vehicles more appealing to customers, reduce risks for investors and encourage manufacturers to scale up production

• Key instruments deployed by local and national governments for supporting EV deployment:

o public procurement

o financial incentives facilitating the acquisition of EVs and reducing their usage cost (e.g. by offering free parking)

o financial incentives and direct investment for the deployment of chargers

o regulatory instruments, such as fuel economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on their tailpipe emissions performance

2017 policy updates: China

• New Energy Vehicle (NEV) credits mandate

o Target of the NEV credit mandate is 10% of the passenger car market in 2019, and 12% in 2020

• Vehicle Subsidy Program: subsidies for the purchase of electric cars, dependent on three characteristics: the vehicle range (in km), energy efficiency (in kWh/100km) and battery pack energy density (in Wh/kg)

• Electric bus sales in China also promoted primarily by subsidies

o Started in 2009 by the central government, supplemented by support from local authorities (pilot cities) and progressively reduced over time

o Policy update in 2017 to prevent fraud: overall subsidy reduced and converted into operational subsidies to target the support scheme to transit operators of electric buses

• China is considering a national ban on ICE cars running on fossil fuels

2017 policy updates: European Union

• Update of the CO2 emissions standards for new cars and LCVs (to 2030)

o Inclusion of an incentive scheme aiming to stimulate the uptake of zero- and low-emission vehicles

o The incentive scheme reduces (by up to 5%) the overall CO2 target for manufacturers that exceed the 2025 (15%) and 2030 (30%) low- and zero-emission vehicle market share thresholds (shares calculated using weights)

o No penalty for non-compliance of low-or zero emission targets • France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden, UK (+ Norway) pledged to end sales of

ICEVs by 2030 to 2040 • Selected examples of policies on zero emission buses:

o Public procurement (Clean Vehicles Directive) o Netherlands: aims for all emissions-free bus sales by 2025 & all-electric stock by 2030 o C40 fossil-fuel-free streets declaration: only electric buses would added to the municipal

fleets of Barcelona, Copenhagen, London, Milan, Oxford and Paris (plus others globally) • EU roadmap: aim to reduce its GHG emissions by 80% in 2050 compared with 1990 levels

o Emissions from transport could be reduced to more than 60% below 1990 levels by 2050

2017 policy updates: India

• Dynamic situation:

o FAME: incentive scheme that reduces the upfront purchase price of hybrid and electric vehicles (launched in 2015)

o April 2017: vision aiming to have an all-electric vehicle fleet by 2030

o September 2017: Tata Motors won 1st public procurement EV tender by EESL

o December 2017: SIAM white paper proposing a pathway towards all new vehicle sales being all electric by 2047 and 100% of intra-city public transport as all electric by 2030

o February 2018: Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises stated that it had not set any target for electric cars for 2030 and referred back to FAME scheme for EV policy

o February 2018: launch of the National E-Mobility Programme by the Ministry of Power. Focusing on creating the charging infrastructure and a policy framework so that by 2030 more than 30% of vehicles in India are electric

• Greater coordination needed, but positive signs for EVs

2017 policy updates: United States

• Federal level revision of fuel economy standards announced in April 2018 Details of new standards still unknown

• California (granted a waiver by EPA to regulate CO2 emissions) vowed to stick with the stricter rules

o A number of other States followed California on this

• ZEV mandate also increased in ambition in California and other States

o 1.5 million ZEVs and 15% of effective sales by 2025, 3.3 million in 8 States combined (California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont)

o Target of 5 million ZEVs by 2030 in California

• There is a risk of a double standard in the US market

o More stringent rules for cars sold in California and the States that follow its lead

o Weaker rules for the rest of the States

EVs lead to higher electricity demand…

Around 91% of the power for electric vehicles in 2017 was consumed in China

The share of electricity demand from EVs was 0.8% in China and 0.5% in Norway

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Electricity demand due to EVs: 54 TWh (more than the electricity demand of Greece)

…but they enable reductions in oil use, GHG & pollutant emissions

• EVs consume (in final energy terms) half to one third of the energy used by ICE powertrains

o This is due both to the higher efficiency of the powertrain and the EVs’ ability to regenerate kinetic energy when braking

• EVs displaced 0.4 mb/d of diesel and gasoline demand in 2017

o The majority of the displacement is attributed to two- and three-wheelers (73%), the rest to buses (15%) and LDVs (12%)

• EVs also allowed to reduce global well-to-wheel CO2 emission savings of 29.4 Mt CO2 in 2017, and abated pollutant emission savings in high exposure areas (urban environments), thanks to zero tailpipe emissions

The role of consumer electronics for Li-ion battery improvements

Consumer electronics led to cost declines (through technology progress and scale) for Li-ion in the past

This benefited both EV packs, now set to deliver the next scale up, and stationary storage

1995

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Li-ion expected as the technology of choice for the next decade

Li-ion will continue to improve, thanks to several enhancements possible in battery performance

Other technology options will be ready after 2025, and scaled up in the following years

Cathode

2020 2025 20302017

NMC111N0.8C0.15A0.05

Graphite

Li Metal,HVS

NMC811NMC622

N0.9C0.05A0.05

CurrentBeyond

Lithium-ionAdvanced

Lithium-ionBeing deployed

Anode

Electrolyte

Next generation Lithium-ion

Li-Air

Li-SulphurGraphite/Silicon composite

Graphite + 5-10% Silicon

Carbon alloys

Polymer5V electrolyte

saltsGel Polymer

Organic solvent + LiPF6 salts

Li-ion improvements: effects of size & production volumes on costs

Battery size and manufacturing capacities have sizable impacts on the cost of batteries per kWh

Over time, both these factors will help delivering significant cost reductions

Note: graphics developed for BEV batteries for cars

Industry is mobilizing investment in large scale manufacturing

Current battery factory capacity ranges between 0.5-8 GWh/year

Much larger plants (7.5-35 GWh/year), aiming to reap economies of scale benefits, already announced

Country Manufacturer Production

capacity

(GWh/year)

Year of commissioning

Source

Operational

China BYD 8 2016 TL Ogan (2016)

US LG Chem 2.6 2013 BNEF (2018)

Japan Panasonic 3.5 2017 BNEF (2018)

China CATL 7 2016 BNEF (2018)

Announced

Germany TerraE 34 2028 TerraE (2017)

US Tesla 35 2018 Tesla (2018b)

India Reliance 25 2022 Factor Daily (2017)

China CATL 24 2020 Reuters (2017f)

Sweden Northvolt 32 2023 Northvolt (2017)

Hungary SK innovation 7.5 2020 SK innovation (2018)

Regional insights on the GEVO 2018 scenarios

China and Europe are the global regions with the fastest development of EVs

in both scenarios and in virtually all modes

EV market share by mode in a selection of regions, NPS and EV30@30 scenario, 2030

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ma

rket

sh

are

(%)

China

BEV PHEV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Europe

BEV PHEV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Japan

BEV PHEV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ma

rket

sh

are

(%)

United States

BEV PHEV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%India

BEV PHEV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Rest of the World

BEV PHEV

NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30

NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30 NPS EV30@30

EVs benefit the environment and are essential to CO2 emissions reduction

If coupled to low-carbon power, the high energy efficiency of EVs offers prospects for substantial CO2

emissions reductions. This complements their air quality, energy security and noise reduction benefits.

On-road WTW CO2 emissions for various technologies by country/region, RTS and 2DS, 2015 to 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FRANCE UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN EUROPE

gCO

2/k

m

ICE gasoline

ICE gasoline hybrid

ICE diesel

PHEV - 2DSimprovement

PHEV - RTSimprovement

BEV - 2DSimprovement

BEV - RTSimprovement

2015

2030 RTS

2030 2DS

(GEVO 2017)

Stimulating the adoption of electric vehicles

• Carbon pricing on transport fuels

• Targets to phase in zero emission vehicles

• Public procurement programmes for zero-emission vehicles, providing a pivotal stimulus to market creation and expansion

• Bridging the price gap (adjusting to the EV uptake)

o Differentiated taxes on vehicle purchase, best if based on environmental performances (bonus/malus, feebates)

o Circulation advantages (free or discounted parking, free charging and access to priority traffic lanes and reduced charges on the use of transport infrastructure)

• Fuel economy standards

• Zero emission incentives (more flexible to technology development) or mandates (higher certitude)

• Local initiatives to regulate access

Focus on fuel economy standards and ZEV incentives/mandates

• Fuel-economy and tailpipe CO2 emissions standards have demonstrated their efficacy to lead to improved ICE vehicle efficiency

• Standards must be sufficiently stringent to secure timely investment and help ramp-up production and supporting infrastructure

• Once legislated standards shall not be compromised by changes

• Standards can be coupled with differentiated purchase taxes

• Standards can also be coupled with ZEV incentives (more room for flexibility to manage technology uncertainties) or mandates (higher certitude on volumes)

• Life cycle approach desirable, but there is a risk of overlaps with other regulatory frameworks (such as those regulating emissions for the fuel supply chain) and implementation challenges

• Need to ensure that power generation and other fuels will also decarbonize (need for complementary measures in the power and fuel production sectors)

Focus on local initiatives

• Public procurement o Co-benefits for municipalities and businesses:

→ Bulk purchase reduces units costs

→ Helps OEMs scale-up

→ Kick-starts EVSE deployment and the emergence of EVSE-related businesses

o Benefits for the public: → Demonstrates the technology to the public, makes EVs familiar in the daily environment

→ Facilitates EVSE roll-out and the emergence of publicly accessible infrastructure

o Buses: procurement deals allowing to lift capital cost barriers

• Regulating access o Low-emission zones: complementary to national-level targets and bans, easier to implement,

they can have significant impacts

o Concerns over “clusterizing” the market: harmonized labelling can provide clarity to both consumers and OEMs

• Integrate electrification with Mobility as a Service

Complementing fuel taxes with road pricing

• In the medium-to-long term, with growing EV sales: o Conventional vehicle sales and activity decreases

o Government revenues from gasoline/diesel taxation decrease

• Alternative road transport taxation solutions will need to emerge: o Km-based tax is a solution to maintain government revenues with multiple

technologies on the road

o This can include a time/congestion-based component to target vehicles most responsible for infrastructure wear and pollution peaks

• Current government revenues from fuel taxation would be maintained by o A tax of USD 0.01/km in US and China

o A tax of USD 0.08/km in Europe and Japan

Supporting the roll out of private chargers

Private chargers have a number of advantages: low installation cots, low impact on the power grid (low power, possibility to enable night time charging)

Measures suitable for their support include:

• Financial incentives, aiming to reduce the cost of installation for early adopters. They are also relevant for fleets, and need to be adapted as the market emerges.

• Regulatory instruments, such as:

o Building regulations requiring minimum levels for the number of "EV-ready“ parking spots

o Changes in property laws to to simplify and accelerate approval procedures for electric car owners to install and use charging infrastructure)

Supporting the roll out of publicly accessible chargers

• Defining deployment targets (in conjunction with vehicle deployment targets by mode)

• Direct investment (e.g. for the deployment of a critical mass of chargers, as well as for chargers to provide a minimum service level)

• Financial support, e.g. through financing from public entities at low interest rates, loan guarantees and other instruments covering the risk of default, and public-private partnerships, where the commercial risk is shared among private partners and the public sector

• Regulations, e.g. in the case of publicly accessible charger availability for individuals who do not have access to private parking

• The use of open standards is also important for vehicle-charge point communication and payment as a means to enable inter-operability between charging networks, increase innovation and competition, and reduce costs to drivers

Achieving demand- and business-driven EVSE development

• Business cases are needed: o High-frequency use locations o Complementary revenues streams, such as parking fees and income from

commercial activities enabling the use of charging points

• Government guidance and support/regulations should ensure:

• the availability of EVSE in less frequented areas (“universal” access and public service principles), via: o Public-private partnerships o Mandating EVSE providers to cover certain areas and encourage cross-subsidization

of highly used EVSE towards less used EVSE

• Interoperability features and easy-to-use network for all

• Strong EV commitments also helps the private sector take ownership of EVSE roll-out (e.g. OEMs dedicated to establishing highway corridors)

Ensuring that EVs are effectively integrated in the electricity grid

• Power generation: variable renewable capacity additions are breaking records

• Local power distribution: need to minimize the risk of local grid disruptions and the need for costly grid upgrades

→ Flexible charging is key

• To accommodate efficiently variable renewable generation (e.g. daytime workplace charging when PV generates most)

• To release pressure on the grid at high power demand peak hours

• To avoid grid disruptions locally, provide frequency and load balancing services

→ How?

• Default vehicle software allowing flexibility

• Time-of-use pricing

• Smart-meters

• Regulatory environment favourable to aggregators

• Who pays for local grid upgrades? Utility? EV owner x? All EV owners? Everyone?

Managing changes in material demand from EV batteries

• Challenges (material procurement): o Fluctuating prices, stockpiling o Uncertainty for EV developments and battery technologies o Concentrated extraction (DRC for cobalt)

• Solutions: o Long-term contracts o Need clarity and certainty over future market key area with national/local governments

influence (ZEV mandates, targets, bans)

• Challenges (social and environmental sustainability): o Environmental impact of mining o Black market/child labour o Extremely untransparent supply chains

• Solutions: o Multi-stakeholder actions and signals (governments, civil society, NGOs, industry) o Sustainability standards to be developed, labelling

Managing the battery end-of-life treatment

• Rules over legal responsibility for battery end-of-life (1st/2nd/3rd life)

o Risk of disengagement and no battery management chains / recycling

o Risk of landfilling in-country or abroad (consumer electronics battery problem)

• Certifications and traceability schemes along the lifecycle of batteries (material extraction, assembly, use, 2nd/3rd life, recycling/disposal)

• Encourage manufacturing design enabling recycling processes that allow the recovery of high-value materials minimizing costs and energy use

o Regulatory framework mandating that batteries are suitable for physical separation?

o Need for multi-stakeholder coordination to understand scope for feasibility without hindering technological advances in battery chemistries/manufacturing

IEA

IEA Mobility Model

Pierpaolo Cazzola, International Energy Agency


The IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) – What is it?

A spreadsheet model of global transport • focus on vehicles, transport activity and energy use

• also covers emissions, infrastructure and materials use

• Analysis of scenarios and projections to 2060 (mostly back-casting and “what-if”)

(extension from 2060-2100 is complete but is current a simple extrapolation of trends)

World is divided in 29 regions, including several specific countries • All G20 countries except Saudi Arabia, as well as regional blocks (e.g. ASEAN, EU and non-EU

Nordics, EU 7, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, OETE…

• Urban and non-urban disaggregation (following UN and national definitions)

MoMo contains a large amount of data on technology and fuel pathways • Full evaluation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions: with and without (I)LUC

• Cost estimates for new light-duty vehicles (LDV), fuels and fuel taxes

• Estimates of transport sector expenditures to 2050: vehicles, fuels and infrastructure

• Module on material requirements for LDV manufacturing

The IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) – What is it?

The analytical tool used for projections of transport activity, energy demand and CO2 emissions in the IEA

An essential tool for activities on: • Energy Efficiency: Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)

• Energy Technology: Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI)

• Cooperative Efforts: Railway Handbook on Energy Consumption and CO2 emissions with International Union of Railways

MoMo is shared with: • Other Directorates in the IEA (e.g. WEO; EEfD)

• the International Transport Forum, who uses it for the formulation of its Transport Outlook

• “MoMo partners”, i.e. sponsors – mainly from the private sector – that provide Voluntary Contributions and/or in-kind support

Who supports the work: MoMo partners

The MoMo historical database - Data sources:

IEA statistics: country-level energy demand by mode (road, rail, aviation, shipping) and by fuel over time

Road: national statistical offices, vehicle manufacturers associations, vehicle registers, ministries, statistical yearbooks…

• Country-level data on stock, new registrations, mileage and fuel economy, urban & non-urban resolution

• Main focus of the model due to high energy use • Passenger and Freight modes: 2- & 3-wheelers, PLDVs, LCVs, MFTs and HFTs • Desegregation by power train types using gasoline, diesel, electricity, and gas

Rail: country level data from UIC, urban from UITP and ITDP datasets combined

• Rail: light rail, metro, heavy rail (electric, diesel)

Aviation: data from ICAO and JADC, as well as Boeing, Airbus, ICCT

• Commercial aircraft Shipping: activity from UNCTAD, IMO, activity projections based on ITF modelling

• International maritime ships (container, general cargo, oil tankers, bulk carriers, other)

The IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) – simplified model structure

Transport activity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock

New vehicle registrations by age and by powertrain

Energy use

CO2 emissions

Emission factors

Energy consumption

per km Vehicle price

by powertrain

GDP, population, structure of the transport system

Vehicle scrappage

Fuel price

Generation of transport activity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock

Derivation of new vehicle registrations by powertrain, characterisation of vehicles by age

Calculation of the energy use, by fuel

Estimation of CO2 and pollutant emissions

Emission factors

Pollutant emissions

Pollutant emissions

IEA

GEF-7 project on e-mobility

Pierpaolo Cazzola, International Energy Agency


GEF Global e-mobility Programme

• Will be the first ever global EV programme

• Focused on the introduction of electric mobility in low and middle income countries

• The programme will include 4 components:

1. Global/Normative thematic platforms (Light duty, Heavy-duty, grid and batteries)

2. Regional hubs/training/capacity building/communities of practice

3. Child projects

4. Tracking progress globally

• GEF7 support

• GEF approached IEA/EVI and UNEP to get this started

• Global component budget from GEF: USD 5 million

• Child projects: USD X million (X dependent on Child projects mobilized)

Thematic Platforms at core of Component 1

Light duty vehicles (two wheelers, cars)

Technologies, policies, financing instruments, business models supporting the roll out of vehicles and charging infrastructure

Heavy duty vehicles (buses, trucks)

Technologies, policies, financing instruments, business models supporting the roll out of vehicles and charging infrastructure

Grid, system and power market integration

Ensuring that EVs deliver net reductions of GHG emission intensity of the power grid Addressing barriers to EV integration from power market perspective

Batteries Policies/technologies/business practices managing the extraction of primary materials, battery manufacturing, choice of vehicle size and types - including associated impact on material demand Policies helping manage & optimize practices regarding second life and end-of-life of batteries

Timeline and partnerships

• Project submitted but IEA and UN Environment in September 2018

→ Positive feedback received, room for project scale-up until March 2019 before final validation

• Scope for external contributions:

1. We will need experts to join the global thematic platforms and share their expertise, for best quality outcomes of the platforms

Experts needed for all 4 platforms (Light-duty vehicles, Heavy-duty vehicles, Grid integration, Batteries)

Need letter of support describing expert engagement in the Project including staff time (costing out engagement)

2. One objective is to involve a large number of partner stakeholders with their specific expertise and demonstrate broad attention to electric mobility via multi-stakeholder co-funding:

Partners can include a variety of entities (to date, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, Nordic Energy Research, World Resources Institute, Finland all issued letters of support including estimates of in-kind co-funding)

Co-funding can take place at the country project level, via e.g. investments related to a selected GEF country-project on e-mobility

Need letter of support describing the engagement (in-kind or financial) and estimate of co-funding this corresponds to

We are happy to further explore engagement pathways together (meetings, calls) – one first step would be to join the EV30@30 Campaign

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/september/uk-and-seven-major-companies-join-campaign-for-vehicle-electrification.html

the global ev outlook 2018 - avere-france · global ev outlook 2018 • evi flagship report by the...

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