the german experience on the way to 100% renewabels...the german experience on the way to 100%...
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The German experience on the way to 100% renewabels
Hans-Josef FellPresident of Energy Watch Group
Member of German Parliament 1998-2013
Naypyitaw, Myanmar July 12th, 2017
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Political challenges
Climate warming Peak oil, peak coal, energy security Nuclear and environmental disasters Oil wars, poverty, refugees, economic
crises
All these challenges are connected withfossil and nuclear energies
Renewables will solve these problems
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Where oil is, is mostly war
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
COP 21: Stop Climate warming at 1,5 C
The better choice is:
Global Cooling
But at todays warming at 1,3°C is already unacceptable: aridity and forest fires, floods and storms, sea level rising
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
ECMWF: Global Warming 2016: 1,3 °C
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2017/2016-was-warmest-year-yet-ecmwf-data-show
Paris goal 1,5°C possibly reached at 2020 ?What to do then? More Emissions?
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
The crises of climate warming & energydependency can only be solved by two
parallel strategies:1. Stop greenhouse gas emissions
(not only a reduction of emissions) switch to 100% renewables
completely stop the use of fossil and nuclear energies in energy, chemistry, transport, agriculture
2. Take out carbon from the atmosphere convert plants to humus soil (biocoal)
reforest big areas, green the deserts
organic agricultureThe Target must be 330 ppm CO₂
This leads to global cooling, instead of global warming
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Source : FVS/DLR
Worldwide Potential Of RenewableEnergy
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Political support stimulates renewable growthShare of renewable electricity in Germany
3.44.7
6.2 6.67.7 7.6
9.3 10.211.6
14.2 15.116.3 17
20.4
23.725.2
27.4
31.5 31.7
35.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Shar
e in
Per
cent
Outlook in 2000 for2010:
Source: BMWi, AGEE-Stat, BEE
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Why had Germany the most successfulindustrial developement of renewable energy
Laws by former red-green Parliament since 1999: •Feed in tariff for Renewables (EEG) •Nuclear phase out law•tax exemption for biofuels, •strengthened research and education budget, •subsidies for renewables,
Active promotion by people, companies, NGOs
Hans-Josef Fell – MdB (1998-2013)Präsident der Energy Watch Group
Annual electricity demand 2011:ca. 1.600.000 kWhAnnual supply through RE 2011:ca. 7.600.000 kWh
Annual heat demand 2011ca. 3.200.000 kWhAnnual supply through REN 2011:ca. 2.880.000 kWh
7 Years ´Energiewende´ in GroßbardorfInhabitants financed it with cooperative
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Complete Concepts for 100% Renewables
Renewable energy for: heat, cooling, mobility, electricity, industry
Wind, solar, hydro, waves, bioenergy, geothermal
Storage: hydro pump; batteries, power to gas; ice (heat) storage
Big data; smart homes; smart cities
Hybrid; electricvehicles
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Germany
Nov 2016, COP22, Marrakech:48 countries (Climate Vulnerable Forum) decided for 100% RE target
More Countries e.g.: Denmark; Sweden; Costa Rica; Iceland; Cape Verde
Cities with 100% RE target e.g.:Barcelona; Masdar City; Munich; Masheireb; Downtown Doha; Vancouver; San Francisco; Copenhagen; Sydney;
Companies with 100% RE target e.g.:Google, Coca-cola, Ikea, Wallmart
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Renewable Energy as a Job Engine in Germany
Nuclear sector
38.000
Source: BEE /BMU 2011
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Avoided Costs by Renewables in Germany in 2012
Source: BEE
0
5
10
15
20
Avoided Import Costs 2012:10 bn. €
Avoided External Costs 2012: 11 bn. €
Renewable EnergySources Act Levies2012: 14 bn. €
22 bn. €
14 bn. € exta costs RE
in bn. €
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
German reality: expansion of green power improves grid stability
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Blackout of power grid in minutes (SAIDI)
Amount of green power in %
source: Bundesnetzagentur (2015); http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/Versorgungssicherheit/Stromnetze/Versorgungsqualität/Versorgungsqualität-node.html ; BMU, BEE, bdew
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
source: EEG 2004, EEG 2009, EEG 2014, BNetzA
in €Cent
Solarpower Gets Cheaper(Development of Feed-in Tariffs for photovoltaic roof systems above 1 MW)
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
PV and Wind now cheapest Energy
Quelle: https://www.pv-magazine.de/2017/07/05/studie-photovoltaik-und-windkraft-spaetestens-2030-in-allen-g20-staaten-guenstigste-stromquelle/
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
WEO Photovoltaic: Projections and Reality
Source Energy Watch Group (2015): The projections for thefuture and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook forsolar PV and other renewable energy technologies.
Reality exceeded all projections of WEO by far. PV, Wind grow much faster than by IEA projected.Nuclear and fossil grow much less than projected
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Climate Protection and Energy Security Policies
Promoting Renewable Energy and Chemistry & Organic Farming:• Climate protection into national constitution• Laws for feed-in-tariffs (GET FIT for developing countries)• Canceling subsidies for fossil and nuclear energy, fossil
chemistry and intensive agriculture• Tax relief for renewables• Carbon tax• Research and education for renewables and organic farming• Reducing obstacles for approval• Dispose big areas for reforesting and regreeningNot successful: • Tendering or certificate systems• Emission trading
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Key Points of an Effective Renewable Energy Act (Feed-in Law; EEG)
Privileged grid access Feed-in tariff have to be sufficient for an
economic operation, differentiated through technologies and size
Funding of the feed-in tariff via electricity rate No cap for feed-in of renewable energies Garanteed peroid of renumeration
Also: no obstructions by a restrictive permission policy
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
GET FiT
GET FiT is the abbreviation of Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs for developing countries
It is a concept for facilitating private sector investments in renewable energies in developing countries• Grants are used to supplement the existing FiT mechanism
for the first five years
First project in Uganda (launch in 2013): • 90 mio. US$ over a five year period• 125 MW of renewable energies• Financed by Deutsche Bank, KfW, Great Britain
Source: Deutsche Bank, GET FiT
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Installed solar home systems in Bangladesh
3583 6783 1141319213330045164679637127976
203863
317599
518218
755672
1020014
1312478
15501351655201
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Solarpower helps to reduce poverty
Financing: Microcredits
Source: Grameen Shakti, SOLAR HOME SYSTEM, http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=58&Itemid=62
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Chinas Growth of Solar is tremedous
Cumulativ installed Solar in GW•2010: 0,86•2016: 77 •Official target 2020: 105•Analysts forecast: 180
Source: AECEA, Frank Haugwitz
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Western Oilcompanies: since oil price decline mostly only losses
Source: Energy Watch Group, Werner Zittel
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Double pitfall for fossil/nuclear business
Rising oil/gas/coal/uranium prices•Energy consumers switch to renewables
Declining oil/gas/coal/uranium prices•Financers stop financing•State budget on the way to bankruptcy
Both leads to economic pressure forfossil/nuclear companies
$3.4 trillion fossil fuel assets are flagged fordivestment by more than 500 institutions and2,040 individuals from 43 countries
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Leonardo di Caprio 17.4.2017 in Shanghaiat Presentation of new BYD E-cars
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament (1998-2013)
President of Energy Watch Group
Global Cooling/Globale Abkühlung Strategies for Climate Protection/Strategien gegen die Klimaschutzblockade
Source: Beuth
http://www.beuth.de/de/artikel/globale-abkuehlung
www.globalcooling-climateprotection.net
Thank You VeryMuch for Your
Attention!
www.hans-josef-fell.dewww.energywatchgroup.org