the german energy transition and the future ofrenewables · 2019. 7. 22. · bcg/prognos– ref...
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The German Energy Transition and theFuture of Renewables
Prof. Andreas Löschel
Universität MünsterHead of German Expert Commission „Energy of the Future“
Co‐Director „Energy Transition Hub“
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 2Source: World Bank Global Solar Atlas via SOLARGIS https://solargis.com/
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Monitoring the Energy Transitionhttp://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/monitoring‐implementation‐of‐the‐energy‐reforms.html
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Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 4
Dimension Lead indicator
Mitigating climate change Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
Renewable energyIncrease in the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption
Energy efficiencyReduction of primary energy consumption
Target attainment: likely uncertain unlikely
Status of the German energy transition
Security of supply Expansion of transmission grids
AffordabilityEnd‐user spending on electricity in terms of GDP
Public acceptanceGeneral approval of goals of energytransition
Source: Löschel et al (2019)
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel5
Renewable support effective
• renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG): long term fixed technology specific feed‐in tariffs with privileged access to market and obligation for network connection: 20,5 GW (‘04) to 117 GW (‘18) with 46 GW PV, 53 GW Wind onshore, 6 GW Wind Offshore, 5 GW Hydro, 8 GW Biomass
• EEG 2014: reduction in FIT + targets for capacity increase per yearwind onshore: 2,5 GW MW (net 3‐5 GW gross,) wind offshore: 6,5 GW by 2020 (15 GW 2030)photovoltaic: 2.500 MW (gross), biomass: < 100 MW (gross)
• EEG 2016: bidding system for renewable investments from 2017onwards (quantity based), not PV < 750kWp
• 2018: goal enshrined in the coalition agreement of about 65 % by 2030• better synchronization of renewable energies and grid capacities
‐ limit expansion of wind power in some areas• tenant Electricity Act involves tenants directly and sets PV impulses,
wind cooperations
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Electricity generation in Germany
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Installed capacity
Electricitygeneration
Source: Fraunhofer ISE https://www.energy‐charts.de/
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Electricity generation in 2030 (BaU)
13770 61 75
87
65 87 37
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Status quo ENavi Aurora Dena
Lignite Hard coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables Imports
21 12 10 13 10
25 12 17 8 170
50
100
150
200
250
300
Status Quo ENavi Aurora Dena DIW
Lignite Hard Coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables
Source: BDEW (2018), Enavi (2018), Aurora (2018), DENA (2018), DIW (2018)
Installed capacities in BaU 2030 (GW)Electricity production in BaU 2030 (TWh)
25
11 8 917
9
21
73
71
0
05
101520253035404550
Lignite
Hard coal
Phase out pathways 2030 (GW) • substantial economic phase out ofcoal based electricity generation
• renewable incrase to 55 %, but targets missed (50+)
• additional reduction necessary toachieve 2030 target
• Germany to become net importer
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Renewables in 2019
8Source: https://www.smard.de
In calender week 10 2019 around 70 % of electricity consumption covered by renewables
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Integration of renewables into system
9Source: https://www.smard.de
Electricity generation and load: 16.1.2017 – 26.1.2017.
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Development of support system
•Mandatory direct marketing
• Switch from fixed remuneration to floating market premium
EEG 2014
•Shift to auctioning • Technology‐specific remuneration (determined by competition)
EEG 2017•No exposition to market price risks
•No competition between different technologies
• Strong increase in administratively determined parameters
Market revenues (price)
(Administratively determined)Floating market premium
Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years
Market revenues (price)
Floating market premium (to reach auction price)
Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Renewable auctions and capture prices
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Apr 15 Okt 15 Mai 16 Nov 16 Jun 17 Dez 17 Jul 18 Feb 19 Aug 19
ct/kWhMarktwert PV
Zuschlagswerte PV
Marktwert Wind Onshore
Zuschlagswerte Wind Onshore (100% Standort)
Source: Löschel et al. (2019) based on BNetzA (2019); ÜNB (2019)
Capture price PV
Auction price PV (> 750 kWp)
Capture price Wind Onshore
Auction price Wind Onshore (>750 kW) max. 7.5
ct/kWh
max. 6.2 ct/kWh
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
GHG Emissions in 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
million t C
O2‐eq
uivalents
Agriculture
Households, trade,commerce andservicesTransport
Industry
Energy sector
80 %‐Path
95 % Path
Sectoral GHG emissions in 2050 (and comparison with 2015 as a base year)
Source: Löschel et al. 2019
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Electricity generation in 2050
Net electricity generation in 2050 according to different scenarios
Source: Löschel et al. 2019
TWh BCG/Prognos –REF
BCG/Prognos –80 %
BCG/Prognos –95 % ewi – REV 95 % ewi – EV 95 %
Photovoltaics 90 100 114 192 192
Wind offshore 151 188 258 139 113
Wind onshore 194 208 215 373 372
Gas(Synthetic gas from PtG) 49 47 48 (syn gas) 84 (syn gas) 61 (syn gas)
Other 136 83 80 87 72
Total 620 626 715 875 811
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Attribute BCG/Prognos– REF
BCG/Prognos– 80 %
BCG/Prognos– 95 %
ewi – REV95 % ewi – EV 95 %
heat pumps[million units]
4 14 16 13 6
Eelectric cars and light‐duty vehicles[million units]
14+1 26+2 33+2 33+2 33+2
truck overhead line [km] 0 4,000 8,000 N/A
Synthetic fuels[TWh]
0 0 268 170‐177 188‐207
Synthetic fuels and combustibles[TWh]
0 0 383 448 634
Synthetic fuel imports [TWh] 0 0 340 402 585
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Selected technologies for sector coupling in 2050
Electrification in 2050
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
• substantial gaps in 2020/2030: climate target and efficiency • climate policy options
‐ coal phase out as a relatively cheap option, but implementation costly ‐ CO2 pricing and energy tax reform (electricity tax, FIT, …)
• renewable policies to be developed further (tech, grid, market price risk) increase in renewable alone not sufficient to achieve CO2 targets
• sector coupling necessary in long run (electricity, heat, transport): electrification and Power to X (hydrogen, green gas, synthetic fuels)
• grid extension as a bottleneck (also in EU): grid charges, market splitting• comprehensive review of the coal exit measures and their implementation in
2023, 2026 and 2029
Energy Transition ‐ Status quo and challenges
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Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Thank you.
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel Chair of Energy and Resource EconomicsUniversity of Münsterloeschel@uni‐muenster.de
We Chat: AndreasLoeschelTwitter: @andreasloeschel
Monitoring the Energy Transitionhttp://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/monitoring‐implementation‐of‐the‐energy‐reforms.htmlGoogle: energy monitoring germany bmwi
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Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 17Source: BdEW (2014)
Renewable support effective, but not efficient
• Feed in tariffs (new installations) average feed in tariff
BiomassWind onshore
HydroWind offshore Photovoltaik
Geothermal
2014: Biomass 15 ct, Wind offshore 19 ct, Wind onshore 9 ct, Photovoltaik 12 ct e.g. 1.2.2015 PV rooftop <10kWp 12,56, <500kWp 10,92, open space 8,70
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
1.454
670
367563
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Completion / k
m
Ursprungspfad201320152016 (Best‐Case)2016
By the end of 2015 563 km had been completed (107 km less than forecasted in 2013, and 891 km less than originally intended)
The situation is similar with respect to projects of the Federal Requirement Plan
Original Path
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Expand the gridNecessary grid extension (transmission and distribution) because of local and temporal intermittency as well as increasing average distance
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Climate Action Plan 2050 and 2030 targets
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61-62 %
49-51 %
66-67 %
40-42 %
31-34 %
Total (MtCO2eq.) 1248 902 543‐562 (55% in 2030 80‐95% in 2050)
Source: BMU (2016)
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel
Perspective 2050
‐1.200
‐1.000
‐800
‐600
‐400
‐200
0
200
400
Frau
nhofer ISI e
t al. ‐ R
EF
BCG/Progn
os ‐ RE
F
dena
et a
l. ‐ R
EF
BCG/Progn
os ‐ 80
%
dena
et a
l. ‐ E
L 80
%
dena
et a
l. ‐ T
M 80 %
Frau
nhofer ISI et a
l. ‐ B
S 80
%
BCG/Progn
os ‐ 95
%
dena
et a
l. ‐ E
L 95
%
dena
et a
l. ‐ T
M 95%
ewi ‐ REV
95 %
ewi ‐ EV 95
%
million t C
O2‐eq
uivalents
Switch between fossil energysources (including CCS)
Switch to synthetical energysources
Switch to renewable energysources
Switch (no assignmentpossible)
Energy productivity
Population growth
Economic growth
Total
Decomposition of the drivers of energy emissions in the overall system 2015-2050
Source: Löschel et al. 2019