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THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION − BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE POWER AND ENERGY INDUSTRIESFEBRUARY 2018
Claus HabermeierGermany Trade & Invest
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Who we are
Foreign trade and inward investment agency of the Federal Republic of Germany
Shareholder
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“Marktbeobachtung”
Support export-oriented companies based in Germany with comprehensive foreign market information.
Investor Aquisition
Consult potential foreign investors in terms of their expansion plans and execute the required project management support in Germany.
Promote the economic development of the new federal states. (Aufbau Ost)
Location Promotion
Promote Germany abroad as a leading economy and technology location in order to attract investors who infuse equity and/or create (or secure) jobs in Germany.
A three-fold mandate:
GTAI – the Agency
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Project Management Assistance
Location Consulting/Site Evaluation
Project partner identification and contact
Business opportunity analysis and market
research
Market entry strategy support
Joint project management with regional development
agency
Coordination and support of negotiations
with local authorities
Final site decision support
Site preselection
Identification of project-specific location factors
Cost factor analysis
Site visit organization
Organization of meetings with legal advisors and financial
partners
Identification of relevant tax and legal issues
Project-related financing and
incentives consultancy
Administrative affairs support
Accompanying incentives
application and establishment
formalities
Decision & InvestmentEvaluationStrategy
Support Services
GTAI – Investor AcquisitionGermany Trade & Invest is a “one-stop agency” supporting the investor closely and facilitating every stage of the decision-making process
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Development of Renewable Energy Systems
Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data
Total capacity of renewables(End 2000)
~ 30,000 installations
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportionalto the electrical capacity
Total capacity of renewables(End 2005)
~ 221,000 installations
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportionalto the electrical capacity
Total capacity of renewables(End 2010)
~ 750,000 installations
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportionalto the electrical capacity
Total capacity of renewables(End 2015)
> 1.600.000 installations
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportionalto the electrical capacity
Feed-in-Tariff created dynamic growth
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The German Electricity MarketOff-shore Wind Recognized for High Potential
Energy Source Share of Installed Capacity (2015)
Full Load Hours of Power Plant Types (2016*)
Sources: Bundesnetzagentur 2016, *BDEW 2014 *Preliminary values (State 27.03.2017), BDEW
7410
6610
5810
3690 36003170
2690
15001200 940 940
Nuc
lear
Pow
er
Lign
ite
Biom
ass
Hydr
opow
er
Hard
Coa
l
Win
d Po
wer
(offs
hore
)
Nat
ural
Gas
Win
d Po
wer
(ons
hore
)
Oil
Pum
ped
Stor
age
Phot
ovol
taic
s
1 Year: 8,760 h
Nuclear Power5.4%
Lignite13.6%
Hard Coal10.5%
Natural Gas14.3%Oil, Pump
Hydro and Others9.3%
Biomass and Waste3.9%
Hydro-power2.8%
Wind Power (Onshore)
19.3%
Wind Power (Offshore)
1.4%
Photo-voltaic19.5%
Total: 200 GW Annual peak load: app. 80 GW Wind & PV: 80 GW
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Goals of Renewable Electricity ConsumptionDevelopments on target
Renewable’s share on Germany’s gross electricity consumption vs. goals of German Energiewende
Sources: BMWi, 2017
00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Renewable’s share on Germany’s gross electricity consumption
Goals of German Energy Concept (as of 2011)
35% until 2020
50% until 2030
65% until 2040
80% until 2050
32% in 2016
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More renewablesdemand
more digitalization
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Smart Meter Roll-OutSmart metering systems to be rolled out in Germany from 2017
New draft law “Digitizing the Energy Transition”:
Source: Landis + Gyr
• Smart Metering System (SMS) = Electronic Meter + Secure Communication Gateway
• Electronic meters new standard in 16-year meter replacement cycle for all users
• Mandatory roll-out of full SMS starts 2017 with large users > 10,000 kWh/a and producers with installed capacity between 7 and 100 kW
• From 2020 possibility to require other consumers and producers to install SMS
• Price ceilings apply when equipment is installed
• SMS can always be fitted on a voluntary basis
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The German Smart Meter Roll-Out just startedPotential for 3 million new smart meters starting in 2017. From 2020 further 47 million. Thereof only ~150k installed today.
Smart Meters to be rolled out until 2032(Number of units)
Source: BMWI 2016
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Producers (CHP & Renewable Energy plants >7 kW) Consumers > 10 MWh/a Consumers < 10 MWh/a
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The Smart Grid Market OverviewNew power structures will lead to bottle necks in Germany as the new generation centers will be far from load centers
Source: Bundesnetzagentur 2016
Power balance 2014 Power balance 2024
[MW] [MW]
2014-2024
[MW]
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European Grid Extension projectsTen-Year Network Development Plan 2016
Source: TYNDP 2016 Ten-year network development plan ENTSO-E
TYNDP 2016 investment portfolio –breakdown per year of commissioning
• € 150 billion grid expansion proposed by the TYNDP 2016
• Enhanced market integration will reduce bulk power prices by 1.5 to 5 €/MWh
Pan-European Significance investments – mid- and long-term horizon
Source: ENTSO-E 2016
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More renewablesrequire
more energy storage
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Energy Storage: many use cases in GermanyProviding grid services, helping industry reduce grid fees, and households increase their own-consumption of cheap PV energy.
Courtesy: Younicos GmbH/Wemag AG, Tesvolt GmbH, Sonnen GmbH
Utility Industry Private
Control Power
Redispatch
Black-start capability
Reduction of grid fees by reducing or shifting Pmax
Increased own-consumption from PV
Increased own-consumption from PV
Special electricity rates for battery swarms
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Base and Peak Price Development EEX Spot MarketFormer business model for energy storage
Source: European Power Exchange, bricklebrit.de
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Installed Primary Control Power CapacityGrowing market with increasing fluctuating renewables
*preliminary figures; Note: no claim for completeness
Total large-scale batteries in GermanyPower capacity [MW]
2
10
156
15
10
5
515
5
1.6
2
15
3
2
15151513
10
48
11.5
5050
Hybrid: Li-Ion + X
Li-Ion
Li-Ion second life
Lead-acid
15 battery capacity in MW
?
22 48
218
341*
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2012-2015 2016 2017 2018(announced)
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Market explosion for stationary batteriesStrong growth for private PV-batteries and large-scale grid batteries
Note: * average system size: 6.8 kWh; ** anticipating 1C (1 MW = 1 MWh)Source: RWTH 2017, BSW 2017
Installed capacity of PV-battery systems(MWh*)
Battery capacity for Primary Control Power(MWh**)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
75-85k PV-battery systems expected by
end of 2017.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Further 123 MW already in pipeline
for 2018.
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Development of Renewable Energy CurtailmentLong term energy storage technologies are needed
127421 385
555
1581
4722
10 33 33 44 83315
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GWh Mio. €
87%
8%5%
wind energy biomass solar energy
Source: German Federal Network Agency, Monitoring report 2016Source: German Federal Network Agency, Monitoring report 2011-2016
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Example: Audi e-gas plant in WerltePlant prequalified for secondary control power
Source: Audi AG
Goals
• Demonstration of the process chain
• Optimize operational concept (fluctuating power from wind vs. changing gas feed)
• Gain experience in technology, costs and consenting
Key Parameters
• Project name: Audi e-gas Projekt
• Input power: 6 MWel
• Hydrogen production: 1.300 m³/h
• Start of operation: 25.06.2013
• Owner: Audi AG
• Carbon dioxide source: a biogas plant
Partner
• SolarFuel GmbH
• Zentrum für Sonnenenergie und Wasserstoff-Forschung
• Frauenhofer Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik
• EWE Energie AG
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H2 Mobility action plan until 2023Construction of a Hydrogen Refueling Network in Germany until 2023
TARGETS:
400 HRS until 2023 ( 100 HRS until 2017)
350 mio. € investment
Max. 90 km distance between two HRS at
the motorway
10 HRS in each metropolitan area
Source: NOW
Partner:
Associated Partner:
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National Innovation Program II (NIP II)With NIP II, the German government continues to facilitate R&D and market launch activities in the area of fuel cells and hydrogen
Note: For more detailed insight and whether your company is eligible for funding, please ask your GTAI expert. Source: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure 2016.
Funding for the following fields of activity:
Infrastructure for emission-free
transport
Stationary applications:
combined heat and power units
Support of supplier industry
Fundamental research for the next generation of fuel cells and
hydrogen technologies
The use of fuel cells for securing
critical infrastructure
Governmental funds: up to €1.4 bn between 2016 and 2026
60% of funds for market activation activities
40% of funds for activities in the field of R&D,
demonstration and market entry preparation
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More renewablesoffer
cheaper electricity for heat & vehicles
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Sector coupling: strong growth for Electric VehiclesOnly 0.73% of newly registered vehicles were Plug-in Hybrids or Battery Electric Vehicles in 2016
Sources: IEA 2017, BDEW 2017
Electric Vehicles (PHEV + BEV) in Germany(Number of vehicles, 2011 – 2016)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
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…and for Public Charging StationsAcute demand for public charging stations. These will potentially also be equipped with batteries – as well as with smart grid technologies
Sources: IEA 2017, BDEW 2017
Electric Vehicles (PHEV + BEV) vs. Public Charging Stations(Number of units, 2011 – 2016)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Electric Vehicles Public Charging Points
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SINTEG – New Smart Energy ProgramEUR 600* Million for 5 showcase regions from 2016 to 2020
1. C/sells: interconnected, regional energy systems with cellular structure and focus on PV integration that balance each other
2. Designnetz: decentralized renewable power supplied flexibly to urban and industrial load centers
3. Enera: Stabilizing the grid by improved measurement and data analysis coupled with new market mechanisms
4. NEW 4.0: Maximizing the efficient use of regional wind power overproduction by flexible demand response and inter-regional trade in electricity
5. WindNODE: Sectors electricity, heat, and mobility are integrated to flexibly accomo-date fluctuating regional wind power
Source: BMWi, 2016 *Including EUR 230 million state support
FRANKFURT
STUTTGART
MUNICH
HAMBURG
DÜSSELDORF DRESDEN
BERLIN
2
3
5
1
4
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Contact
Germany Trade & Invest
Claus Habermeier
Director at Germany Trade and Invest
New York Office
80 PINE ST FL 24
New York, NY 10005-1732
Tel: +1 (212) 584 9715
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany Trade & InvestForeign Trade and Inward Investment Promotion Agency
Energy Storage – Smart Grid
Heiko StaubitzSenior ManagerFriedrichstr. 6010117 BerlinT +49 (0)30 200 099-226
Supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the basis of a decision by the German Bundestag.