the games we play: the future of dfa models’ interfaces aleksey popelyukhin, ph.d. vice president,...
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The Games We Play: the Future of DFA Models’ Interfaces
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D.Vice President, Information Systems & Technology
2 WINGS RISK SERVICES
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Dynamic Financial Analysis
Studies the company as a whole Takes into account multiple types of risk Compares results of different strategies Generates distribution of possible outcomes
but1
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Dynamic Financial Analysis
is it really Dynamic
2
?
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Now that you have your distribution
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800
815
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questions arise
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How did I get there?
staying profitable being not so profitable making all sorts of mistakes
3a
800
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time
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Why didn’t I react?
at that point in time at that point in time at that point in time
3b
800
825
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time
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What could I do?
how to avoid getting into “red zone” what levers do I have which scenarios require actions
3b
800
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time
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Non-dynamic DFA
4
Doesn’t allow analysis of particular scenarios or group of scenarios
Doesn’t allow time-variant strategies Doesn’t’ allow scenario-dependent strategies
In short,All decisions has to be made before simulations.
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DFA can be enhanced
4a
If one adds:
Ability to run particular scenario (s) Higher level of details Clearly identified “levers” Time animation Ability to define strategy “on-the-fly”
(as a response to scenario behavior)
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Should we start from scratch?
5
We need a computing environment that provides:
High level of details Time animation Interactivity
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Welcome to the world of Games!
5
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Simulation Games
6
Provide a computing environment with:
High level of details Time animation Interactivity
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Similarity is striking!
7
Empire/City/Railroad Building game vs.
Insurance Company management simulation:
Visual Metaphor Functional Metaphor “Gameplay”
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Visual Metaphor
7a
Zoning Areas Bulldozing Cost Tall Buildings Cultural Influence Natural Disasters
(fires, earthquakes) etc.
Lines of Business Brokerage Fees Large Losses A.M. Best Rating Natural Disasters
(fires, earthquakes) …
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Functional Metaphor
7b
Emperor/Mayor Advisors Progress Monitoring Orders Taxes etc.
Decision Maker CFO/Actuaries/Claims Reporting Actions Taxes …
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“Gameplay”
7c
Watch Critical Indicators Check Advisors Reports Make Decisions Intervene Observe Effect in “real” time repeat
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Benefits
8
“Game-like” computing environment serves as:
Training ground for Executives Fine-Tuning tool for Strategists Self-Learning program for AI Monitoring paradise for Management Modeling Sandbox for Actuaries
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Training
8a
Thinking with Images Making Decisions without any Damage Behavior in case of Disaster
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Fine-Tuning
8b
Choosing Success Criteria Refining Strategies Definitions (if..then) Business Processes Assumption Testing
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Monitoring
8c
Multiple factors at once “Real” time Visual cues
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Dynamic Response
8c
Time is visualized Non-linear strategies Feedback
Reserves Prices Investment
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Implementation
9
Starting with the existing game Engine
we will get: Rich Interactive Interface Flexible Modeling Environment
we will not get: Industry specific Models Ability to import and constantly update Data
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Engine Modifications
9a
Simulate Economy Simulate Company Simulate Correlations Simulate the rest:
Competition Geography Weather Catastrophes
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Monitoring
9b
Even if we were able to: Design new Models Collect necessary Data Implement all Algorithms
We still have to decide: Which statistics to calculate Which indicators to monitor Which criteria to use for alerts
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Presentation of Analysis Results to the Management of the Company
10
built-in!
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Conclusion
end
Inevitably, DFA interfaces will resemble modern simulation game environments.
Everyone will benefit: Actuaries Management Shareholders Policyholders
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Real-life examples
P.S.
1. Spatial visualization:
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Real-life examples
P.S.
2. Time animation:
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Real-life examples
P.S.
3. First Actuarial Game: