the future of work - réseau action ti...two core themes four potential future scenarios...
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The Future of Work
Ravin Jesuthasan, CFA
Author and Managing Director
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved.
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Industrial Revolutions and Work
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Second Industrial RevolutionLate 19th – early 20th century –
“The assembly line”
Features:
Companies as social institutions
Organization of work into jobs
Jobs as careers
Third Industrial Revolution / First Machine Age1960s – 1990s – “Nikefication” and core competencies
Features:
Technology enablement and the web
Companies as the nexus of contracts
Streamlining of jobs to enable outsourcing
Fourth Industrial Revolution /
Second Machine Age2000s – “Uberization”
Features:
Mobile, sensors, AI and machine learning
Companies as platforms
Disaggregation of work into activities
Talent on demand
The
Assembly
Line
“Nike-
fication”
“Uberi-
zation”
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Emerging wave: Automating work now has a more transformative role as it
augments human capability and creates new work, an evolution from pure
labor substitution. However for Canada, there is still an emphasis on
reducing costs.
Source: 2017 – 2018 Willis Towers Watson FOW Global Survey, CanadaNote: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
4%
57%
24%
15%
GlobalCanada
Other
Avoid mistakes/
reduce risks
Augment human
performance &
productivity
Reduce costs
9%
36%
45%
9%
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Use of automation will continue to expand: It is expected to nearly
double over the next three years.
100 % of
work done
by Humans
Automation %
exc. 100%
Humans
Humans Automation
57%
64%
17%
14%
37%
39%
20%
16%
22%
23%
28%
23%
Global 78%
Global 93% 7%
Canada 95% 5%
3 years ago…
Currently…
In 3 years…
Global 88%
Canada 90%
12%
10%
Canada 83% 17%
22%
Source: 2017 – 2018 Willis Towers Watson FOW Global Survey, Canada
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Early actions being taken: HR functions have started to take actions to
prepare for organizational change, but are unprepared for deconstructing
and reconstructing jobs and identifying the new reskilling pathways
required for the business with automation.
9%
14%
14%
14%
19%
19%
26%
28%
35%
37%
19%
19%
24%
30%
23%
28%
28%
26%
33%
30%
21%
33%
26%
21%
14%
26%
19%
14%
23%
14%
42%
29%
36%
33%
37%
26%
26%
28%
9%
19%
9%
5%
0%
2%
7%
2%
2%
5%
0%
0%
Matching talent to the new work requirements
Assessing talent to identify "skill and will" gaps
Enabling careers based on a more agile and
flattened structure
Deconstructing jobs and identifying which tasks can
best be performed by automation (AI, robotics, etc.)
Aligning executive compensation to the new
business realities
Reconfiguring total rewards and benefits
Engaging a more diverse workforce
Identifying the emerging skills required for
the business
Addressing talent deficits through workforce
planning and actions
Identifying reskilling pathways for talent whose
work is being subsumed by automation
Unprepared Considering actions to take to become prepared in the future
Planning to take actions this year to become prepared
Already taken some actions and are somewhat prepared
Already fully prepared
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: 2017 – 2018 Willis Towers Watson FOW Global Survey, Canada
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Successful
re-construction of
jobs matches skills
and activities, and
also takes into
account motives
and attributes.
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Skills dichotomy: As jobs are deconstructed and certain tasks automated,
new types of work will be required. Skill premiums at both the high and low
end will shift.
Impact of Automation Today In 3 years
Canada Global Canada Global
Source: 2017 – 2018 Willis Towers Watson FOW Global Survey, Canada
Requiring us to
pay more for
employees with
certain skill sets
Changing the way
we design jobs so
they can be done
by employees
with more skills
Changing the way
we design jobs so
they can be done
by employees
with lower skills
73% | 62% Global
49% | 59% Global
49% | 45% Global
22% | 27% Global
32% | 42% Global
22% | 25% Global
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Five Forces of Change
Democratization of Work
A more highly democratized future is
characterized by new “employment”
relationships shorter in duration and
more company/individual balanced.
A shift toward a more agile and
responsive view of work will deliver
results by activating purpose built
networks.
Two Core Themes Four Potential Future Scenarios
Technological Empowerment
Technology is transforming the way
we live and work. Machine learning,
3D printing, mobile, wearables, and
algorithmic analytics are some of the
many technologies that promise to
improve individual empowerment.
Social & Organizational
reconfiguration
All inclusive, global talent
market
A truly connected world
Exponential pattern of
technology change
Human & machine
collaboration
1
2
3
4
5
“Uber”
Empowered
Current
State
Work
Reimagined
Today
Turbo-
Charged
Technological Empowerment
Dem
oc
rati
zati
on
of
Wo
rk
1 2
3 4
High
HighLow
Low
Source: CHREATE
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The Emerging “Robo-gig” Economy
8
Technology, Digital Media and Robotics are Transforming Work and Jobs
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Sources: Digital Media & Society, World Economic Forum in collaboration with Willis Towers Watson;
Willis Towers Watson Research; also reference McKinsey & Co
A truly connected world Social & Organization
Re
co
nfig
ura
tion
collaboration …
Hu
ma
n &
ma
ch
ine
All inclusive
Glo
ba
l T
ale
nt
Ma
rke
t
Use of digital
media for work
69%
$2.7BN GDP boostby talent platforms in
< 10 years
41%of companies have
contingent employees
77% of organizations list missing
skills as the single biggest
impediment to digital
transformation
38-40 Million Skilled
Worker Deficit
90-95 Million Low-
Skilled Worker Surplus
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Enablers of work automation
Robotic Process
Automation
Cognitive
Automation
Social
Robotics
TasksRoutine
High-volume
Non-routine
creative
Routine
collaborative
Maturity High Emerging Medium
Impact Medium High High
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Source: Jesuthasan, Zarkadakis and Malcolm, Harvard Business Review, 2016
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The Three things Cognitive Automation can do
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1Automate & re-engineer
tasks and processes
2Develop new
products & services
3Gain new
Data insights
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What We Know
Business leaders to rethink how they execute their business models
Of specific concern are:
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Optimizing speed to capability in an environment when
competitive advantage can be quickly diminished
A cost structure that is sustainable over the long-term
(i.e., an optimal mix of fixed and variable cost)
A risk profile that ensures sustainability. This has a number of elements to it: As organizations move work outside the organization, what are the risks associated with the potential
“lack of control” of the workforce (e.g., liability, loss of IP, etc.). Alternatively,
is risk mitigated by having a more variable cost structure through use of a more
“on-demand” workforce
Reducing the risk of obsolescence. As the half life of skills continues to shrink, the growing premium
on reskilling is causing many organizations to rethink the risks associated with full-time employment
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What Does This Mean for the
Future of Work?
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Changing Requirements of Work
13
Humans vs. machines – the skills that will differentiate us
Cognitive flexibility
Negotiation skills
Service orientation skills
Judgment and decision making
Emotional intelligence
Coordinating with others
People management
Creativity
Critical thinking
Complex problem solving
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
The top 10 skills
that will be in
demand by all
employers by 2020
Future of Jobs Survey, World Economic Forum,
January 2016
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Not “binary” anymore: the employment relationship is changing
A plurality of work is already here…
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Talent platforms
Traditional employees Outsourcing
Robotics Artificial Intelligence
Free agents
Volunteers
Alliances
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Lead the Work Map
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The
Assignment
The
Organization
The
Rewards
Jobs
Collected
Employment Relationship
Tasks
Dispersed
Virtual or Market Relationship
Self-contained
Detached
Insular
Rigid
Permeable
Interlinked
Collaborative
Malleable
Permanent
Collective and Consistent
Traditional
Impermanent
Individualized & Differentiated
Imaginative
Source: John Boudreau, Ravin Jesuthasan and David Creelman @ravinjesuthasan
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Agile Means Perpetual Obsolescence
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Why?